ESPN senior writer Mike Sando asks league insiders to pick winners in select games each week. Three evaluators joined the panel for Week 3. This week's games: Chargers-Rams, Saints-Falcons, Bengals-Panthers, Broncos-Ravens and Steelers-Bucs.
Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday: 4:05 p.m. ET, CBS | Point spread: LAR by 7 | Insiders pick: LAR (3/3)
All three insiders give the Chargers a chance if Philip Rivers can stake them to an early lead and turn this game into a battle between the quarterbacks. All thought that was a bit of a long shot under the circumstances.
"The Chargers have shown their explosiveness offensively, but missing [Joey] Bosa on defense has a big effect and they are getting really thin at corner with no depth behind the starters," an insider said. "I'll pick the Rams because they are rolling, but it could be a high-scoring, back-and-forth game."
Both teams rank among the NFL's top five in pass completions gaining more than 15 yards. Both rank among the top five in Total QBR differential.
One question for the Chargers: Have they fixed their special teams? The 2017 team ranked 381st out of 384 teams since 2006 in ESPN's special-teams efficiency metric. Then, in a Week 1 loss to Kansas City, the Chargers posted their worst single-game mark in special-teams efficiency since the inception of the metric, a span of 193 regular-season games (194 after Week 2, which was much better for the Chargers from a special-teams standpoint).
The Rams are No. 2 to Kansas City in special-teams efficiency since the start of last season, but they will be without injured kicker Greg Zuerlein for several weeks.
"I just can't bet against the Rams right now," an insider said. "That defense has been ferocious. They are just now figuring it out. The only way I see the Chargers winning is if they get ahead quick, but I don't think the Rams' defense allows that."
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday: 1 p.m. ET, Fox | Point spread: ATL by 3 | Insiders pick: NO (2/3)
It was a bit surprising to see two of the three insiders taking the Saints to win at Atlanta, where they have a 1-3 record over the past four seasons (New Orleans was 6-2 there previously under coach Sean Payton).
"Atlanta is injured on defense and [Drew] Brees can get hot, but we have seen what the Saints' defense has been -- inconsistent," the insider picking the Falcons said. "I'm going Falcons at home because they scored 31 last week, they have the home field and the Saints always seem to start slow."
The Saints are 3-12 in September over the past five seasons, ahead of only Cleveland (.200) for winning percentage in games played in that month. That includes 1-7 on the road.
"Atlanta surprised me last week," an insider picking the Saints said. "They lost their starting inside linebacker and starting strong safety, and still won. Very good for them, showing some resiliency. I really do not like New Orleans' defense, but I feel like [Alvin] Kamara is going to have his way, and [Drew] Brees is going to take advantage of those missing pieces."
The Falcons are coming off their most efficient and productive game in the red zone since Steve Sarkisian became offensive coordinator to start last season. They scored touchdowns on all four red zone possessions, their most in a game under Sarkisian. They also averaged 0.86 expected points per play in the red zone, matching the Sarkisian-era high they set in Week 9 last season, against Carolina. However, two of the Falcons' three red zone turnovers under Sarkisian have come against the Saints.
Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers
Sunday: 1 p.m. ET, CBS | Point spread: CAR by 3 | Insiders pick: CAR (2/3)
The two insiders picking Carolina wavered on their selections.
"I think Carolina will win at home, but they are a tough team to read with the injuries," one of them said. "Cam [Newton] is their leading rusher? I know he is huge, but how sustainable is that? It could end up coming down to [Andy] Dalton having to toss the ball around a little more without [Joe] Mixon. I would favor that matchup for Carolina."
Giovani Bernard will be replacing the ascending-but-injured Mixon in the backfield for Cincinnati. Carolina allowed five rushes of at least 12 yards during a 31-24 loss at Atlanta last week, tied with the New York Giants for the most any team allowed in Week 2.
The other insider picking Carolina called it a "toss-up" game while noting that Cincinnati's strong run defense could make the Panthers one-dimensional.
"I'm going with Cincy," the third insider said. "They are playing well right now. Dalton is playing well. Nobody has been able to stop A.J. Green. The thing that scares me is that they are missing Mixon. He has a chance to be special."
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday: 1 p.m. ET, CBS | Point spread: BAL by 5.5 | Insiders pick: BAL (2/3)
The Broncos are 11-0 at home and 1-2 on the road during Weeks 1-2 over the past seven seasons. That includes 2-0 at home this year, the fourth time since 2014 they opened the season with back-to-back home games, as Football Outsiders pointed out. This year, the favorable early schedule delivered matchups against teams in transition (Seattle, Oakland). The Ravens, meanwhile, opened against a Buffalo team with an expansion feel before falling hard on a short week at Cincinnati.
These teams are not easy to read off the early results, in other words.
"I'll take Baltimore with Denver flying west to east when you figure that [Case] Keenum has turned it over and Denver has two comeback wins at home against teams finding their way," one insider said. "Baltimore also gets the 10-day gap between games after the Thursday nighter, and is at home."
The insider picking the Broncos thought Keenum's fearless play could lead to a couple more interceptions while also potentially working in Denver's favor from an attitude standpoint. He also liked the matchup between the Broncos' defense against Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco specifically.
"The way Joe Flacco looked last week, I can't go with him at all," this insider said. "He just did not look good [against Cincinnati]. And then C.J. Mosley has that knee injury, and he is a staple. That is a big injury for them."
The comeback ability Denver has shown could be another edge for the Broncos.
"Baltimore has shown they are limited offensively, and if Flacco turns the ball over, they are stuck," another insider said. "When they get behind, they don't have enough weapons on the edges to consistently make plays, and so, matchup-wise, the pass rush of the Broncos against Flacco -- how does he handle that?"
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday: 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN | Point spread: PIT by 1.5 | Insiders pick: TB (2/3)
Lots of people bet on the Steelers, which probably explains why the point spread is in their favor despite the inconsistent play and potential distractions affecting Pittsburgh.
"They seem out of sync, and they look old to me -- an old team that is traveling," an insider said. "They have to prove it before I pick them."
One concern for Tampa Bay -- cornerback play -- mirrors a concern for Kansas City heading into the Chiefs' victory over the Steelers in Week 2. The Chiefs did a better-than-expected job against Steelers receiver Antonio Brown, but Ben Roethlisberger still threw the Steelers back into the game after falling behind early.
"It looks like Tampa is going to have people open on every play," the insider picking Pittsburgh said. "They key is protection and 'Fitz' [Ryan Fitzpatrick] finding them. Pittsburgh does have a lot of exotic blitzes. Philly tried some against Tampa last week, and Fitzpatrick made them pay with that early bomb to DeSean Jackson. Can he keep it going?"
Another insider thought the Steelers were missing injured linebacker Ryan Shazier, particularly against the run. Since the 2017 opener, the Steelers have allowed 4.1 yards per carry on 261 rushes with Shazier on the field, compared with 5.0 yards per carry on 186 rushes without him. Of course, the Steelers would surely prefer it if Tampa Bay decided to focus on attacking the Steelers' run defense. That appears unlikely. The Buccaneers lead the NFL with 19 pass completions gaining at least 15 yards. That includes five for touchdowns, tied with Kansas City for most in the league.
With the over/under hovering around 53.5, this could be a shootout.
"I would not be surprised if Pittsburgh went no-huddle, spread the field and tried to go after Tampa's young corners," one of the insiders said. "Will Brent Grimes play? That could be big. Tampa has struggled on defense in the red zone, so that is something to watch, too."