The best NFL teams are usually well-balanced -- strong on both offense and defense. But there are plenty of playoff contenders that are overly dependent on players on one side of the ball.
For example, Baltimore has been a defense-first team for most of the past two decades. New Orleans had year after year of Drew Brees trying to overcome terrible defenses until the Saints finally put a good defense together in 2017.
Through two weeks, we don't have a complete read of the NFL landscape, but we do have some info to work with. Together with the help of our friend "DAVE," we're going to look at which teams stand to benefit the most from a little bit of balance.
Football Outsiders' main stat is DVOA, or defense-adjusted value over average. DAVE is a formula that uses DVOA but combines it with our preseason team projections. The acronym at work here is: DVOA adjusted for variation early. DAVE through Week 2 is looking at 20 percent of the current performance and 80 percent of the preseason projections, which are based on a number of variables, including performance the past couple of seasons and offseason personnel changes. Keep in mind that positive defensive DAVE (and DVOA) is worse for the defense because it signifies more scoring. Full ratings can be found here.
Here are the NFL's most unbalanced teams, and how they can potentially close the gap:
Offensively unbalanced
Kansas City Chiefs
Overall DAVE: 8.0% (seventh)
Offensive DAVE: 10.8% (fourth)
Defensive DAVE: 9.4% (31st)
Gap: 27
The Chiefs have made Patrick Mahomes a marketable star in the first two weeks of the season, but lost among all the talk of his touchdowns is the number the Chiefs are giving up to opposing teams. The Chiefs made the Steelers the first team in NFL history to score 37 points at home, commit zero turnovers and lose.
Kendall Fuller had a bounce-back game last week, but the rest of the secondary is so dinged up and cobbled together that it's hard for the Chiefs to win on defense without a pass rush.
Eric Berry might come back from his Achilles injury, but it's hard to believe it will be to full form, while fellow safety Daniel Sorensen isn't back yet from August knee surgery. Kansas City needs Justin Houston, Chris Jones and Dee Ford to generate much more pressure up front than they have so far. ESPN Stats & Info has the Chiefs with a 19.1 percent pressure rate, 29th in the league.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Overall DAVE: -3.8% (21st)
Offensive DAVE: 6.6% (10th)
Defensive DAVE: 8.5% (29th)
Gap: 19
Yes, Ryan Fitzpatrick and his FitzMagic swagger has been a big surprise. Less fun for the Bucs has been the defensive side of the ball. Jason Pierre-Paul and Vinny Curry have not helped a banged-up cornerback unit. Nick Foles and Brees feasted on the Tampa pass defense in the first two weeks.
With Vernon Hargreaves out for the season and Brent Grimes out with a groin injury, last week the Bucs threw out Carlton Davis, Ryan Smith and M.J. Stewart. Grimes will get healthier, but it's hard to imagine this unit instantly jelling. Still, David and Stewart were both second-round picks. Perhaps they can improve quickly after being thrown into the fire. The front seven definitely has enough talent to hang.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Overall DAVE: 13.2% (second)
Offensive DAVE: 14.8% (first)
Defensive DAVE: -0.5% (18th)
Gap: 17
There isn't much of anything to dress up the way the Chiefs dismembered the Steelers' defense last week. Joe Haden missed the game, the Steelers haven't found a real answer for replacing Ryan Shazier, and their high-round secondary picks such as Artie Burns and Cameron Sutton haven't quite panned out. Terrell Edmunds could develop, but right now he's just a rookie.
Haden will get healthier and keep the Kansas City disaster from being fully replicated, but the Steelers will need to get pressure against good quarterbacks to be successful. Last season they were able to do that, ranking first in the league in adjusted sack rate. Whatever game plan they used for Mahomes should go straight in the garbage.
New England Patriots
Overall DAVE: 13.1% (third)
Offensive DAVE: 12.2% (third)
Defensive DAVE: 1.0% (20th)
Gap: 17
Did the Patriots just stagger in the face of Blake Bortles' best game ever, or was that a sign of things to come? That's the question they must be asking themselves after they got systematically pantsed by Bortles (and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett) on Sunday at TIAA Bank Field.
The run defense that Danny Shelton and Dont'a Hightower were supposed to help fix was easy pickings for the Texans, and even Jacksonville backup T.J. Yeldon was able to average 5.8 a tote.
It's extremely uncharacteristic for a Bill Belichick defense to look as bad as the Patriots have over the past year and two games. Trey Flowers and Patrick Chung both sustained concussions against the Jags, but otherwise the unit seems healthy. The Pats need better inside linebacker play and better play from their corners.
Green Bay Packers
Overall DAVE: 5.8% (10th)
Offensive DAVE: 8.6% (fifth)
Defensive DAVE: 1.8% (22nd)
Gap: 17
The Packers allowed 10 points to Chicago's offense in Week 1 and appeared to be holding the Vikings down pretty well until the roughing the passer call from Clay Matthews on Kirk Cousins got Minnesota off the mat. Cousins' game-tying touchdown to Adam Thielen just barely made it through two Packers defenders, but then Green Bay gave up plenty of yardage in overtime.
Most of Green Bay's defensive backs are quite young, but they've already proved to be pretty effective in short bursts. Josh Jackson and Jaire Alexander are rookie corners who will take their lumps like any rookie corner would. The biggest concern for this defense is getting pass-rush pressure. Matthews is slowing down, and the Packers don't have a game-changer at edge rusher at this point.
Defensively unbalanced
Cleveland Browns
Overall DAVE: -9.4% (27th)
Offensive DAVE: -10.2% (29th)
Defensive DAVE: -6.3% (6th)
Gap: 23
Cleveland's offensive issues look fixable or dire depending on how you look at undrafted rookie left tackle Desmond Harrison. In his first game, T.J. Watt ate his lunch. In his second game, Harrison stonewalled the Saints' edge rushers. Antonio Callaway, Jarvis Landry and David Njoku are a pretty promising start to a receiving game. Tyrod Taylor is a functional if unexciting bridge quarterback.
We would argue that coaching and management are the biggest issues the Browns face on offense and defense right now. As young players grow into their roles, and perhaps as Baker Mayfield earns his way onto the field, the talent will continue to be evident. One can only hope the coaches running the show can guide this team to a win here or there. The passing offense could be so much easier, as coaches around the NFL show us every week.
New York Jets
Overall DAVE: -5.6% (25th)
Offensive DAVE: -13.1% (30th)
Defensive DAVE: -5.7% (seventh)
Gap: 23
Jeremy Bates' quest to get Quincy Enunwa 200 targets continues unabated. Obviously, Sam Darnold's development is going to move the Jets up and down as he evolves. That'll mostly come in terms of turnovers, as Darnold was prone to them at USC. Even Darnold's most celebrated touchdown, the throw to Robby Anderson that everyone saw on Monday Night Football in Detroit, was dangerously close to being a pick.
The Jets don't have a lot else that looks promising or new. It's hard to find youth and upside in the veteran-laden crew they've put together on the offensive side of the ball. But at least the offensive line appears to be playing better than expected so far.
Chicago Bears
Overall DAVE: -5.0% (23rd)
Offensive DAVE: -8.8% (28th)
Defensive DAVE: -3.5% (ninth)
Gap: 19
Much like with the Jets, this is a pretty simple scenario. The Bears' new coaching staff is starting to take Mitchell Trubisky's John Fox training wheels off. So far, the results have been mixed at best. Trubisky has shown himself to be a nice scrambler but hasn't hit many challenging throws up the sideline. Meanwhile, he has missed many easy throws in zones.
The development of chemistry between Trubisky and his young receivers is also something to watch. Second-round pick Anthony Miller, in particular, seems like a good bet to develop into a force if Trubisky can continue to feed him.
Baltimore Ravens
Overall DAVE: 7.7% (8th)
Offensive DAVE: -3.2% (21st)
Defensive DAVE: -7.2% (third)
Gap: 18
Joe Flacco's opening-week destruction of the remnants of the Buffalo Bills will buy him at least a few more weeks. There's actually some promise in this receiving game. John Brown and Michael Crabtree are more than Flacco has had to work with in a long time.
But it's hard to imagine the situation getting any better until the Ravens admit that Flacco just isn't an NFL starter anymore. Not with how the league has changed and not with how he looked against the Bengals on Thursday. Lamar Jackson's time will come at some point. Until then, Baltimore's offense will continue to hang on desperately while the defense and special teams keep the Ravens in the playoff hunt.
Miami Dolphins
Overall DAVE: 2.7% (13th)
Offensive DAVE: -3.7% (22nd)
Defensive DAVE: -6.4% (fifth)
Gap: 17
The Dolphins' defense has feasted on new and injured quarterbacks in a 2-0 start, but our ratings are less excited about the offense. Kenny Stills had a terrific Week 1, and Ryan Tannehill has been relatively efficient outside of the multitude of sacks he has taken. Still, the Dolphins have had just an average offense so far, and they were projected to be even worse than that despite the return of Tannehill.
What will matter the most for this offense going forward is making sure Kenyan Drake gets plenty of touches and hoping to get more production from the receiving corps. With A.J. Derby sliding in at tight end, the Dolphins don't have much that scares you deep outside of Stills. They'll have to hope someone in the short game can develop the ability to break tackles in space, or else this will be a dink-and-dunk offense liable to force itself off the field often.