It's early March, and our crystal ball has dollar signs floating in it.
This time next week, NFL teams will be signing free agents at a frenzy. Contract figures will be flying fast and furious, and it will be hard to keep up.
Fortunately, we can help you out a week early. Based on conversations with agents, team executives and other salary-cap experts, ESPN.com proudly presents our predictions for the contracts this year's top NFL free agents can expect to get.
These are projections, and educated guesses. We based the order loosely on ESPN NFL reporter Kevin Seifert's list of the top 100 free agents, but we took out some and added some based on where our best information was. Basically, the list is designed to give you an idea of what to expect in terms of numbers when they start to flow in next week. We'll start at the very top.
Quick links: Barnwell's grades | 32 predictions | Top 100 free agents
| Insiders predict
1. Kirk Cousins, QB
2017 team: Washington | Age: 30
Projected contract: Three years, $90 million fully guaranteed
This is the deal everyone in the league is watching. After two years on the franchise tag, Cousins hits the market as an NFL unicorn -- a healthy, unrestricted free-agent starting quarterback in his prime. He'll surely beat Jimmy Garoppolo's annual average of $27.5 million and Matthew Stafford's at-signing guarantee of $60 million, and he'll set new standards for money paid out in the first three years. The question is how far beyond the current standards he'll go. Cousins is thought to want a three-year deal so he can hit free agency again while still in his prime. Don't be surprised if his deal is announced as a five-year deal so the signing team can spread out signing bonus proration, but that he can get out after three.
2. Le'Veon Bell, RB
2017 team: Steelers | Age: 26
Projected contract: One year, $14.554 million (franchise tag)
It's possible, but I just don't see how Bell and the Steelers get to a long-term deal from where they are. Bell is looking for more per year than he's getting on the franchise tag. The market, based on our survey, has him at around $14 million per year. And the way the Steelers do deals -- guaranteeing nothing beyond signing bonus money -- presents a significant stumbling block. I think Bell plays the season out on the franchise tag and signs elsewhere next year.
3. Drew Brees, QB
2017 team: Saints | Age: 39
Projected contract: Five years*, $90 million
This one is a little bit complicated. The final three years of Brees' current deal void on Wednesday, and if he doesn't have a new deal by then, all of the remaining $18 million proration of his signing bonus accelerates onto the Saints' 2018 salary cap. If they do negotiate a new deal by then (which I expect they will), they still carry $6 million of that signing bonus each of the next three years. So the way to do this might be to add two years to what's already there, then give Brees a $29 million signing bonus and a $1 million 2018 salary. That allows the Saints to spread out the signing bonus hit over five years and actually reduce their 2018 cap hit for Brees to about $13 million while guaranteeing little or nothing beyond 2018 and still going year-to-year with him. This scenario also would allow Brees to claim he was the first $30 million-a-year quarterback before Cousins can beat him to the punch. You may remember that Brees was the first $20 million-a-year quarterback.
4. DeMarcus Lawrence, DE
2017 team: Cowboys | Age: 26
Projected contract: Five years, $87.5 million
There's a strong chance that Lawrence plays out the season on his one-year, $17.143 million franchise tag. But all of the pass-rushers who got franchised last year -- Chandler Jones, Melvin Ingram and Jason Pierre-Paul -- found their way to long-term deals before the July deadline, so let's just say it's not crazy to think the Cowboys and Lawrence might be able to do the same. This deal would come in slightly ahead of the one Lawrence's fellow David Canter client, Olivier Vernon, signed with the Giants two offseasons ago.
5. Case Keenum, QB
2017 team: Vikings | Age: 30
Projected contract: Three years, $56 million
Keenum comes in a little bit ahead of Blake Bortles in total value and annual salary, which feels about right. Being on the open market should allow him to secure more guaranteed money than Bortles did, however, and if he can get a significant portion (or all!) of the deal guaranteed, he'd be helping Cousins on his pioneer mission to move the NFL toward fully guaranteed contracts. Keenum will be the top option for many of the teams (Denver? Arizona?) who wanted to pursue Cousins but couldn't afford it.
6. Andrew Norwell, G
2017 team: Panthers | Age: 26
Projected contract: Five years, $62.5 million
Kevin Zeitler went to free agency as a guard last year and landed a deal worth $12 million per year with $23 million guaranteed at signing and $31.5 million guaranteed by the start of the 2018 league year. Norwell should be able to beat it, especially with former Carolina general manager Dave Gettleman now running the show for the offensive line-needy Giants. Norwell's deal will set the stage for the Zack Martin extension to come in Dallas.
7. Ezekiel Ansah, DE
2017 team: Lions | Age: 29
Projected contract: One year, $17.143 million (franchise tag)
What I wrote earlier about Lawrence applies here as well, and it's possible there's a template that gets the pass-rushers their deals before the July deadline. But it feels like the Lions aren't all the way sold on Ansah as a consistent performer, so we'll split the difference here and say he's stuck on the franchise tag. But it could be he gets the deal I gave to Lawrence, and Lawrence plays on the tag. We shall see.
8. Jimmy Graham, TE
2017 team: Seahawks | Age: 31
Projected contract: Three years, $25 million
Just don't see Graham breaking the bank, based on the conversations I had at the combine in Indianapolis and since. He can still help a team, and there will be enough interest (Baltimore? Chicago? New Orleans?) to move up his price somewhat. I don't think Graham gets into eight figures per season, and some people suggested to me he might have a tough time getting to $9 million a year.
9. Sheldon Richardson, DT
2017 team: Seahawks | Age: 27
Projected contract: Three years, $48 million
The combine chatter indicates there will be a strong market for Richardson, who's viewed by teams as a difference-maker who can play in a 4-3 or 3-4 front. Some have the same kinds of concerns that led the Jets to trade him, but enough teams will look past the potential trouble and see the kind of player he can be when he's driven.
10. Jarvis Landry, WR
2017 team: Dolphins | Age: 25
Projected contract: Four years, $44 million
What? Isn't $11 million a year less than his current $15.982 million franchise tag? Why, yes. Yes, it is. Good math there by you. But I don't believe there's a team out there willing to (A) trade the Dolphins something of value and (B) sign Landry for $16 million a year. His value is closer to that $11 million mark, and certainly any acquiring team could structure a deal that averages something closer to that figure while still paying Landry his franchise number in the first year.
11. Nate Solder, OT
2017 team: Patriots | Age: 30
Projected contract: Four years, $49 million
The expectation from people around the league is that Solder, who is the top tackle on the market, will end up taking a little bit less than market value to return to the Patriots. A deal like this would slot him in ahead of Tyron Smith and behind players such as Trent Williams and Terron Armstead at the top of the market, but he could get as much as half the deal guaranteed.
12. Trumaine Johnson, CB
2017 team: Rams | Age: 28
Projected contract: Five years, $77.5 million
A whopper of a deal that would put Johnson atop the cornerback market. But hey, he already has been there the past two years on his franchise tags, and with cap-rich teams like San Francisco and Cleveland in need at the position, Johnson looks set to cash in big. Johnson and agent Joel Segal have wisely waited out the franchise tag process (a la Cousins and agent Mike McCartney at the top of this list) and are in position to set new market benchmarks at the position as a result.
13. Star Lotulelei, DT
2017 team: Panthers | Age: 28
Projected contract: Three years, $33 million
Being a bit optimistic here, because one or two of the top defensive tackles on the market are going to find themselves in a position to take a one-year deal like the ones Dontari Poe and Bennie Logan got last year. But if Lotulelei isn't that guy, $11 million a year feels like the right number for him.
14. Allen Robinson, WR
2017 team: Jaguars | Age: 25
Projected contract: One year, $10 million
The analogous situation here is Alshon Jeffery's from a year ago. Jeffery got a one-year deal with the Eagles worth $9 million with the potential for another $5 million in incentives. He played well enough that the Eagles eventually gave him his big extension toward the end of the year, and obviously things worked out well for everybody. Robinson is coming off a year lost to a knee injury, and it will be tough for any team to trust him with a big guarantee. Maybe he ends up getting his big deal a year from now. Or, like Jeffery, a couple of months sooner.
15. Sammy Watkins, WR
2017 team: Rams | Age: 25
Projected contract: One year, $13 million
Similar situation to Robinson's, except Watkins did make it through this year healthy and is seen as a potential No. 1 wideout, so his number is higher. Teams will want to see Watkins (A) stay healthy again and (B) play to his draft pedigree before committing long term.
16. Lamarcus Joyner, S
2017 team: Rams | Age: 27
Projected contract: One year, $11.287 million (franchise tag)
The market number on Joyner seems to be around $10 million per year, which means he might be wise to play it out on a franchise tag number that's higher than that and force the Rams to keep making that decision on him year-to-year the way they did with Trumaine Johnson. I could see Joyner signing something like a four-year, $40 million deal before the July deadline, but the bet here is that he plays on the tag.
17. Dontari Poe, DT
2017 team: Falcons | Age: 28
Projected contract: Three years, $33 million
Everything I wrote a couple of paragraphs ago about Star Lotulelei applies here. Poe could return to the Falcons on a little bit of a lesser deal, or he could end up having to go the one-year route again. But Poe played well enough in 2017 that he should have a market if he gets to it early enough.
18. Bashaud Breeland, CB
2017 team: Washington | Age: 26
Projected contract: Three years, $28 million
I absolutely could see him hitting the market, not finding what he thought he would, and returning to Washington on a reasonable deal now that it has a greater need at the position than it thought it did before trading Kendall Fuller to Kansas City.
19. Aaron Colvin, CB
2017 team: Jaguars | Age: 26
Projected contract: Three years, $31 million
Just a tick more than what Logan Ryan got from Tennessee a year ago, with about half of the deal guaranteed.
20. Teddy Bridgewater, QB
2017 team: Vikings | Age: 25
Projected contract: One year, $8 million plus heavy incentives
Bridgewater hasn't played a meaningful snap in two years, so whichever team signs him is going to be taking a chance. If it's a team that views him as its potential starter for 2018, expect that team to pack the deal with incentives that could push Bridgewater into the $15 million-$17 million range if he produces the way they hope.
21. Dion Lewis, RB
2017 team: Patriots | Age: 27
Projected contract: Four years, $24 million
Lewis and fellow versatile running back Jerick McKinnon are projecting in the range of $5 million to $7 million per year, so we split the difference here and went with $6 million per year. The expectation is that he'll leave New England for the best offer and, hopefully, go to a team that uses him the way the Patriots did.
22. Malcolm Butler, CB
2017 team: Patriots | Age: 28
Projected contract: Five years, $49 million
He's not hitting the market at peak strength, coming off his weird Super Bowl benching and a not-too-great year. But the bet here is that some team takes a chance on the upside and does a longer-term deal in the hopes of having a bargain in the deal's later years.
23. Paul Richardson, WR
2017 team: Seahawks | Age: 26
Projected contract: Five years, $34.5 million
Just a little bit more than Robert Woods got from the Rams last year, and the team spending it will hope like heck it works out the way the Woods deal did. Richardson is still young, and there are teams that believe he has more potential than the Seattle offense allowed him to show.
24. Anthony Hitchens, LB
2017 team: Cowboys | Age: 26
Projected contract: Four years, $40 million
This is a high-end projection, because a lot of people told me they didn't expect the inside linebacker crowd (Hitchens, Avery Williamson, Zach Brown) to do better than $7 million per year. But remember that Hitchens' former position coach in Dallas is now the defensive coordinator in Indianapolis -- a team that needs all kinds of help on defense. Makes you think this particular linebacker might have a stronger market than most.
25. Justin Pugh, OL
2017 team: Giants | Age: 28
Projected contract: Four years, $38 million
Pugh's ability to play guard or tackle should appeal to teams that need versatility and depth on their offensive line. If a team sees him as a starting tackle, his price could go even higher.