NFL team executives saw four options for a Jimmy Garoppolo contract when the San Francisco 49ers acquired the quarterback heading into Week 9.
Two options remain viable now that Garoppolo has won his first four starts with the team and looked impressive while doing so.
We'll start with the two options that are no longer viable before considering the two options that remain and what execs from other teams would feel comfortable doing.
Discontinued option No. 1: The Kaepernick route
The five-year contract Colin Kaepernick signed with the 49ers in 2014 was heavy on conditional guarantees. It made sense for Kaepernick at the time because he had one full year left on his rookie contract and was scheduled to earn $1.1 million, leaving him largely unprotected if he suffered an injury or played poorly.
Garoppolo has an expiring contract, and he knows the 49ers will do what it takes to retain his rights, with the franchise tag as a likely starting point. The tag essentially provides a $23 million to $24 million floor for Garoppolo in 2018. He does not have -- and probably never had -- any incentive to do the type of deal Kaepernick entered into.
Discontinued option No. 2: The Bradford route
There was some thought two months ago that San Francisco could sign Garoppolo to a deal structured similarly to the two-year, $36 million contract Sam Bradford took with Philadelphia in 2016. An agent suggested maybe $42 million over two years, while a team salary-cap analyst said he'd push for three years and $57 million because Garoppolo, unlike Bradford, hardly played.
Garoppolo has now played, and played well. The 49ers have won all four of his starts after posting a 1-10 record without him. There is genuine excitement surrounding Garoppolo, not just among the 49ers, but among evaluators from other teams. This type of shorter-term contract will not appeal to Garoppolo.
"Garoppolo is not going to give you a [compromise] deal, and why should he?" a longtime exec said. "You shouldn't even offer him anything along these lines, because you will insult him. What he has done is pretty impressive."
Remaining option No. 1: Use the franchise tag
This would be the easy way out. San Francisco would name Garoppolo its franchise player as insurance against letting him reach free agency in March. Working out a long-term deal could then become the next goal.
This route could carry appeal for the 49ers if they still have some reservations about going all-in on a player with six NFL starts. It could carry appeal for Garoppolo if he wanted to bet on himself the way Kirk Cousins has done.
How good is Garoppolo? I've spoken with veteran coaches and evaluators who love what they see so far. One said he thought Garoppolo would become a second-tier quarterback next season, with a shot at challenging the top tier.
Garoppolo, Ben Roethlisberger and Marc Bulger are the only quarterbacks since 2001 to go 6-0 in their first six NFL starts. Garoppolo, Roethlisberger and Tony Romo are among 10 quarterbacks with triple-digit passer ratings through six starts over the same span. Bulger, Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott, Chad Pennington, Robert Griffin III and Marcus Mariota are in that group. So is Matt Flynn.
"Plenty of players have been flashes in the pan for six games," an exec said. "Only San Francisco knows how much of it is real and how much is not. Certainly, it seems like he is worth big money. They know better than any of us."
Remaining option No. 2: Pay the man real QB money
The Oakland Raiders made Derek Carr the NFL's highest-paid player when they signed him to an extension before the start of this season. The next front-line starting quarterback in line for a deal will surely push the bar a little higher. Could it be Garoppolo?
One exec said he'd have a hard time paying Garoppolo more than Carr is getting, but that he'd be OK paying the same amount.
"Logically, it would not make sense to go higher than Carr," this exec said, "but if you pay him a mil a year more, who cares? It is just a little hard psychologically."
Another exec said he could see the 49ers doing a contract in line with Carr's five-year, $125 million deal.
If the franchise tag were $23.5 million in 2018, then the price for tagging Garoppolo would climb to $28.2 million in 2019 (the collective bargaining agreement calls for a 20 percent increase when a player is tagged a second time). That works out to $51.7 million over two years, or nearly $26 million a year, which could then become a rough guideline for annual average and a starting point for guarantees.
"Any chance of getting him at $16 million or so [per year] went out the window the last few weeks," an exec said. "It could be in the range of $120 million over five, with the first two years fully guaranteed and part of the third year, also."
Would the 49ers be OK going that high? Another exec thought the team would not be gun-shy, partly because first-year general manager John Lynch has never entered into a lucrative deal and gotten burned. If you're going to pick one player to build your new program around, why not make it a promising quarterback?
"What we are all saying here is, 'We think Garoppolo is the real deal, and he is going to be a second-tier quarterback at worst,'" this exec said. "He is going into his fifth year, so you pay the guy. If he gets hurt, well, that can happen to anybody."