The San Francisco 49ers could have selected Mitchell Trubisky, Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson with the second overall pick in the 2017 draft. They could have waited to see whether Kirk Cousins might become available. Instead, they threw a curveball by acquiring Jimmy Garoppolo at a lower-than-expected price, indefinitely suspending their search for a starter.
Next up for the 49ers: deciding how to proceed on a contract extension for a player who flashed ability in two NFL starts but finished only one of them (Garoppolo passed for 232 yards and three touchdowns in his second start, against Miami last season, before suffering a shoulder injury).
What to do? We've got four primary options:
Option 1: Wait and see
The rookie contract Garoppolo signed as a second-round pick in 2014 runs through the current season. The 49ers could use upcoming games to evaluate him before determining how to structure an extension. They could do this knowing the franchise tag lets them control Garoppolo's rights through the 2020 season.
The tag provides emergency protection in case Garoppolo performs well this season and the team cannot easily strike a new deal. The Washington Redskins' current predicament with two-time franchise player Kirk Cousins shows there is risk in playing things safe.
"I would agree the club may try to slow-play it," a former general manager said, "but if you do so, you may have to franchise him next year. Look for something that would pay him some premium for starting games, but only kick into a big-time deal if he performs well."
Brian Hoyer and Josh McCown took smaller versions of such a deal. An agent said Garoppolo should aim much higher. The 49ers have no alternative, and they did give up a second-round choice to acquire Garoppolo, suggesting they think highly of him.
"Pay him, or let the process play out, which would end with the franchise tag," the agent said. "They could even use the transition tag, letting another team do the negotiating at a time when poison pills have been disallowed."
Option 2: Pay that man his money
Under this scenario, the 49ers would pay Garoppolo big money on a long-term deal sooner rather than later, possibly within the next few weeks. They would be locking in fixed costs while their own salary-cap space remains abundant. Such a deal would appear expensive now, but less so as quarterback price tags and salary-cap limits rise over future years.
The 49ers would want to be certain enough about Garoppolo's future trajectory to make such a deal without getting an extended look at how he fits into their offense, locker room and organization overall. They have cap room to burn in the short term. Why not burn it on a quarterback they liked enough to acquire via trade?
Answer: Because they don't have to make such a large bet.
"If I'm Garoppolo and they are not giving me a $20 million-a-year deal, then I want the franchise tag," an evaluator said.
Option 3: Kaepernick conditions
In 2014, the 49ers signed Colin Kaepernick to a six-year, $126 million deal that wound up paying $39.4 million over three years before Kaepernick left the roster. That contract gave Kaepernick the financial security he sought after earning about $4 million over his first three seasons in the league. However, most of the guarantees were conditional, as the 49ers received a series of options in case they wanted to break off the pact early.
A deal carrying a $21 million annual average paid $13 million a year in actuality, differentiating the contract from more robust ones signed by players such as Aaron Rodgers, Andrew Luck and Matthew Stafford. Andy Dalton signed a deal more along the lines of the Kaepernick agreement. He and Kaepernick had played extensively and posted winning records as starters, but they were negotiating from lower floors after entering the NFL as second-round picks.
While the Kaepernick and Dalton deals did provide opportunities for their teams to exit quickly with more tolerable financial pain, the reality is that even a struggling starting quarterback can look better than the alternative. Teams routinely stick with an expensive starter who is playing at an average or sub-average level, figuring alternatives could be much worse. That is how Jay Cutler hung around in Chicago for so long, to cite one example.
"You could lock him into the same six-year time frame as your head coach and GM," an analytics director said. "Make it $20 million a year, but where you can get out of it every year if you had to, as opposed to doing the franchise tag and having the agent negotiate off that average per year."
Option 4: The Bradford compromise
The two-year, $36 million deal Sam Bradford took from Philadelphia in March 2016 could provide a good framework for a Garoppolo deal, an agent and a team salary-cap specialist agreed.
The agent thought Garoppolo should ask for more than Bradford got over two years -- say, $42 million over two, with around $25 million fully guaranteed in the first year and another $10 million guaranteed for injury in the second. The salary-cap specialist envisioned a three-year, $57 million deal, noting that Garoppolo, unlike Bradford, has hardly played.
Does Garoppolo get more because he has hardly played, leaving it to the imagination just how great he might become? Does he get less because he's unproven?
Garoppolo turns 26 on Thursday. Signing something in the Bradford realm would give him security as a hedge against things going badly, while returning him to the negotiating table for another contract before he reaches his 30s, which are prime earning years for quarterbacks.