Rank NFL teams by the likelihood of an offseason quarterback change, and you'll realize nearly half the league could justify entering the market.
There won't be that many teams ultimately if decision-makers conclude they could actually be worse off paying the next Mike Glennon instead of upgrading the supporting cast and defense sufficiently to support a lower-tier starter. But teams will still draft quarterbacks early, as they always do, and the veteran market could be appealing if an Alex Smith or Kirk Cousins becomes available.
Here's a run through all 32 teams, starting with those most likely to make a change next season.
Change is in the air
It would be surprising if these teams do not make changes and stay the course with their current starters.
1. Cleveland Browns
The Browns didn't see the value in selecting Carson Wentz, Mitchell Trubisky, Deshaun Watson or Patrick Mahomes in the slots where Cleveland could have selected those players. That was defensible to some degree in theory, but the reality is that the Browns still need a quarterback. It's tough to see them betting big on DeShone Kizer in 2018, especially if coaching and/or management changes are coming.
2. New York Jets
Josh McCown has performed at a statistically average level, but because expectations for the Jets were so low, his performance in stabilizing an under-talented offense has made this a feel-good story. That does not mean the Jets will feel good about having a 39-year-old McCown as their starter in 2018, especially after losing to Ryan Fitzpatrick on Sunday.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
Blake Bortles has better numbers this season and the Jaguars are winning, but those facts appear coincidental.
The Jaguars allowed fewer than 10 points in their first five victories this season. NFL teams win those games 97 percent of the time. Tom Brady is 45-0 in them. Kyle Orton and Ryan Fitzpatrick are a combined 28-1. Everyone wins those games almost all the time, which brings us to Sunday. Jacksonville gave up 17 points to the Chargers in regulation and needed a roughing-the-passer penalty in the final minute for a shot at the tying field goal (the Jaguars won in overtime, absolving Bortles of the pick he threw with 1:33 left in regulation).
4. Denver Broncos
Brock Osweiler and Trevor Siemian were not the answer. Paxton Lynch will get his turn this season, but it's tough finding coaches and evaluators who think Lynch will play well enough over the remaining games for Denver to anoint him without a contingency plan. Siemian beat out Lynch twice, after all.
If Lynch falters, we could see general manager John Elway move aggressively. The defense is ready to win now, and there's sufficient weaponry at receiver for a skilled quarterback to flourish, offensive line willing. As one coach put it, "Denver has two No. 1 receivers, both with the numbers to prove it when their quarterback locates the ball properly. And their defense is as good or better than Minnesota's -- better corners -- so I see Denver as a win-now organization."
5. Minnesota Vikings
Sam Bradford had his chance and could not endure physically. Case Keenum is not a long-term solution, but he could be playing too well in the short term for the Vikings to yank him in favor of a rusty Teddy Bridgewater.
If Bridgewater does take his turn, can he stay healthy? If Bridgewater can stay healthy, will he be as good as he was before suffering a dislocated knee, torn ACL and other damage? If he does regain past form, will that be good enough for the Vikings to make him the undisputed starter in 2018?
Lots of questions, no firm answers. The defensive roster is set, the offensive weaponry is underrated and the Vikings' QB quandary lives on as ever.
Decisions, decisions
Change could be coming to these teams as well, although there are potentially viable options already in place. Decisions must be made.
6. Arizona Cardinals
People who know Carson Palmer say he isn't the type to make his retirement decision a public spectacle. He'll just walk away when it's time to walk away. It won't be a shock if Palmer returns for his age-39 season, but uncertainty over his plans and the organization's plans appear sufficient for Arizona to be listed in this group.
7. Miami Dolphins
Ryan Tannehill will be returning from ACL surgery for his age-30 season with a $17.5 million base salary and only $4.6 million in dead money if the Dolphins decide to let him go. The Dolphins do not have an alternative if we assume, safely, that the team will have seen enough of Jay Cutler. It could be time to draft and develop a quarterback even if Tannehill returns.
8. Buffalo Bills
Tyrod Taylor and the Bills' offense are floundering, leaving coach Sean McDermott to figure out whether diminished weaponry is primarily to blame, or if Taylor simply isn't productive enough.
Taylor owns the NFL's fifth-lowest interception rate since he became a starter in 2015. He has been above average in passer rating and Total QBR. He is signed through 2018 on a deal the Bills could escape if they decided to head in another direction. McDermott pulled Taylor for Nathan Peterman in the final minutes of the Bills' 47-10 loss Sunday, then affirmed that Taylor would remain the starter. For how long?
9. Washington Redskins
There's lots of talk about Cousins possibly hitting free agency or the trade market, but he is playing well enough for Washington to strongly consider keeping him, even if it means using the franchise tag ($34 million price tag) or transition tag ($28 million). Cousins could always make things tough on the team by staying away from the offseason program and vowing to hold out unless he is traded, but that might not be his style. Trading Cousins to San Francisco for Jimmy Garoppolo is a fun possibility to consider.
10. Indianapolis Colts
Andrew Luck will be the Colts' starter if his ailing shoulder recovers well enough for him to play. If the shoulder problems linger, the Colts will have to consider other options. They could build around Jacoby Brissett. They could draft a quarterback as early as the top few overall selections. This situation appears far more fluid than anticipated.
11. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs drafted Mahomes under the thinking he could become their starter as early as 2018, and possibly later. Much could ride on how well Alex Smith finishes this season, and how far the Chiefs advance in the playoffs. Smith has so far played well enough to silence the quarterback questions that swirled immediately following Mahomes' selection. This could be a two-year redshirt for Mahomes.
12. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers got their guy in Jimmy Garoppolo, but it's too soon to know whether he will be their guy for the long term. They will have a better idea after Garoppolo takes his spot in the lineup, presumably soon. The 49ers have been willing trade partners in the draft and veteran markets. They could always move on to a different quarterback this offseason. Garoppolo cost them only a second-round pick.
13. Cincinnati Bengals
Andy Dalton has no more guaranteed money in his contract, which gives the Bengals flexibility. They could turn to backup AJ McCarron, or they could consider drafting a quarterback. They also could decide to rebuild the offense around Dalton, who was much more effective when his offensive line was strong. Marvin Lewis' job security is another key variable. The team could look for a head coach to revive Dalton or develop a successor.
Stranger things have happened, but ...
These teams have veteran QBs with pelts on the wall, but extenuating circumstances justify at least a discussion of potential scenarios.
14. New York Giants
This is the last season Eli Manning has guaranteed money coming his way. The team would reap $16 million in 2018 cap savings by releasing Manning with a post-June 1 designation. That doesn't mean the Giants will have a better alternative. It doesn't mean the Giants will want to dump Manning.
What it does mean: The Giants have flexibility that has not existed before, and if they wind up holding a top-five pick in 2018, who knows? The question mark gets bigger if there's a new general manager in place. Reminder: Manning would have to approve any trade.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger is going to be the Steelers' starter in 2018 if he wants to be the Steelers' starter in 2018. The assumption here is that Roethlisberger will put off retirement, choosing instead to compete for another Super Bowl while collecting $17 million. He has talked about retirement, however, so the Steelers need to prepare themselves.
16. New Orleans Saints
Brees' future is an annual storyline given his age and the massive cap implications surrounding his contract, but with an improved defense and running game vaulting the Saints into contention, all parties should have every incentive to keep this relationship intact. The Saints just blew out Buffalo 47-10 with Brees passing for 185 yards and no touchdowns.
17. Los Angeles Chargers
Philip Rivers entered Week 10 ranked lower than Eli Manning in Total QBR (40.1), but he looks like the Chargers' best option for the immediate future, particularly in the absence of a high draft choice. Rivers is still perceived by some as an upper-tier quarterback who has not been supported well enough, but the evidence for that is increasingly outdated. He has a 10-22 record since 2012 in manageable games, defined as those when the opponent scores 17-24 points (he lost another one Sunday). Only Bortles has a worse record in those games among quarterbacks with more than 48 starts since 2012.
18. Baltimore Ravens
Flacco has won and sometimes put up good numbers when the Ravens had a strong running game and defense to make the games easier from a quarterbacking standpoint. That has not been the case for some time. Much has been said about Flacco's once-burdensome contract, but the team could actually save money and cap space by releasing Flacco after this season. That seems unlikely, even though Flacco entered Week 10 ranked 27th in Total QBR (49.0) since 2015, one spot ahead of Bortles. His Super Bowl performance and strong arm equal job security.
Change would be hard to fathom
We know with high confidence who these teams will start at quarterback in 2018. It would take an injury or other unforeseen calamity for them to head in another direction.
Atlanta Falcons: Matt Ryan will be 33 next season. He's signed through 2018, and will be in line for a raise.
Carolina Panthers: Durability is the concern for Cam Newton as he approaches his age-29 season with more than 800 career rushes.
Chicago Bears: Mitchell Trubisky could have a new coach, but he'll be the starter regardless.
Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott will become eligible for a long-term extension after next season. He could challenge Russell Wilson as the greatest quarterback draft value since Tom Brady.
Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford is 29, in his prime and freshly signed to an extension.
Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers will be in line for another contract in the not-too-distant future. At 33, he's younger than Brett Favre was when the Packers used a first-round pick for Rodgers.
Houston Texans: Deshaun Watson should be back for the 2018 opener after undergoing ACL surgery this month.
Los Angeles Rams: Jared Goff is not a bust. He's actually pretty good, and maybe better than pretty good. And he's just getting started.
New England Patriots: Tom Brady looks too good at 40 for the Patriots to head in another direction in 2018, especially with Garoppolo in San Francisco.
Oakland Raiders: Derek Carr is 26 years old and signed through 2022.
Philadelphia Eagles: Carson Wentz, Prescott and possibly Goff will have a chance to reset the quarterback contract market after next season.
Seattle Seahawks: Russell Wilson is 28, and signed through 2019.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jameis Winston will be eligible for a new contract after this season. He's not going anywhere.
Tennessee Titans: Marcus Mariota also will be eligible for a new deal. Durability is a bigger concern for him than for any other front-line starter.