Some of my 2016 NFL predictions are looking smarter than others as Week 7 nears its close. A deep dive into five of my best ones -- and five not-so-great ones -- provides a few lessons for the future.
Five preseason predictions still looking good
The Vikings are the most underrated team
Minnesota entered the season loaded on defense. Coach Mike Zimmer seemed to have instilled a hard-nosed edge in his team, and I thought the offense would do enough with Adrian Peterson taking pressure off a generally efficient Sam Bradford. The Vikings' ability to keep winning after losing Peterson made the "underrated" label seem every smarter, but the fast start has also pumped up expectations. Minnesota might now be one of the more overrated teams, as a result.
Personnel evaluators I spoke with heading into Week 7 expected a course correction, even though most gave Minnesota a good shot to win at Philly.
"The Vikings' offensive line is just in shambles," one evaluator said before the Eagles pressured Bradford on 36 percent of his dropbacks, handing the Vikings their first loss of the season. "I think it is just a matter of time before things fall apart, just because of the offensive line, and then we know the quarterback's track record, and it's probably only a matter of time before he gets hurt too."
Bradford took a beating during the Vikings' 21-10 defeat. He'll have a hard time holding up if the beatings continue.
This roller coaster has more than half a season to run. The Packers were my preseason pick to win the NFC North. I wouldn't necessarily come off that. But it's also fair to say the Vikings have exceeded expectations overall, so far, especially with Peterson sidelined.
Blake Bortles will not live up to the hype
Piling up touchdowns and yardage in less-meaningful situations allowed Bortles to produce inflated conventional stats last season. His 4,428 yards and 35 touchdowns supported a feel-good storyline: rising young QB lifts long-suffering franchise over the hump.
Bortles has piled up a league-high 40 percent of his career passing yards while trailing by at least 10 points. Those are tough situations for any quarterback, and some were of his own making. Bortles' 3.3 percent interception rate since entering the league ranks 32nd out of 33 quarterbacks with at least 500 pass attempts since then. The rate is 2.3 percent (25th) when his team is tied or leading.
The 42 coaches and evaluators polled for my annual QB Tiers project weren't entirely sold. Some questioned Bortles' mechanics. Several simply thought the Jaguars already would have enjoyed more team success if Bortles were playing as well as the stats suggested.
"Everybody wants to anoint him," one general manager said before the season. "I don't see it. He is 1-13 on the road. How's that for a stat?"
A closer look at advanced stats showed Bortles ranking 29th out of 29 qualifying quarterbacks in Total QBR over the second half of last season. He ranks 27th this season, ahead of only Brock Osweiler, Ryan Tannehill, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Case Keenum.
Seahawks over Patriots in the Super Bowl
The attributes that made Seattle and New England the best teams over the past few years remain in place, with one big exception. The Seahawks' running game isn't the same with Russell Wilson less than 100 percent and Marshawn Lynch retired. Getting Thomas Rawls back from injury and working rookie C.J. Prosise into the rotation will help, but this is one critical area needing work.
Seattle is still as good a bet as anyone in the NFC. The Seahawks tend to finish fast. They are a league-best 26-6 over the second halves of seasons since Wilson arrived. Their relatively fast start this season puts them in prime position to claim home-field advantage.
Center Alex Mack was the NFL's best signing in free agency
The Falcons have never been better through seven games during the Matt Ryan era in Total QBR, yards per game, yards per play, interception rate or net yards per pass attempt. Mack's addition as a high-priced free agent in the offseason stabilized the line and helped make Ryan a surprise early candidate for league MVP.
The Falcons guaranteed $8.5 million in third-year salary if Mack remains on the roster in May 2017, an unusual move signaling their desperation for continuity along the line. Mack is 30 years old and had missed 11 games during the 2014 season, but this was a worthwhile gamble.
The Falcons' record through seven games is actually worse this season (4-3) than it was last season (6-1), but the offense is better, for sure.
The Browns will go 0-16
Picking winners in all 256 games before the season produced a few extreme results. The Browns came out with an 0-16 record. They've exceeded expectations offensively for a team that has had six quarterbacks take snaps this season, but at 0-6, they are 37.5 percent of the way there. ESPN's Football Power Index indicates there is roughly a 3 percent chance that Cleveland loses out from here. I'll take the over.
Five predictions I'd like to have back
The Raiders will disappoint with a 6-10 record
Bortles wasn't the only young quarterback to struggle late last season. Oakland's Derek Carr ranked 28th out of 29 qualifying quarterbacks -- ahead of only Bortles -- in Total QBR over the final eight games last season. Carr had yet to prove he could stand strong against the rugged defenses within his own division. Meanwhile, the Raiders' defense remained a work in progress. It all added up to a disappointing season in my mind, but there's nothing disappointing about Oakland's 5-2 start.
The Raiders have outlasted New Orleans (35-34), Baltimore (28-27) and San Diego (34-31) in unusually close games. Carr still hasn't proven he can conquer Kansas City or Denver, but the Raiders have won all the coin-flip games on their schedule to this point. They're in great position to post a winning record for the first time since Bill Callahan was head coach in 2002.
The Panthers will win the NFC South with a 12-4 record
Carolina was never going to duplicate its 15-1 record from last season, but there was also no expectation the Panthers would start 1-5. They remain only two losses behind Atlanta in the NFC South, however, so there's still time for a comeback.
"I'm shocked they have not played better defensively, although that post-Super Bowl year can be a tough one," a former general manager with NFC South experience said. "I still would not count them out. They still might get it going. They are better than what they've shown."
Josh Norman's departure left Carolina without a highly skilled cover corner. Hiding one liability in the secondary is easier than hiding more than one. I trusted the Panthers to develop replacements, to the point that I even listed Zack Sanchez as a late-round rookie draft choice who would surprise. Sanchez might have been fine playing a bit role in an established secondary. He still might develop into a solid contributor. But the experience Carolina subtracted from its secondary -- Norman, Roman Harper and Cortland Finnegan are all gone -- has created chaos for now.
Dante Fowler Jr. will be the No. 1 breakout player
A torn ACL prevented Fowler from playing as a rookie in 2015. Players often don't hit full stride until their second seasons back from reconstructive surgery. Fowler had never played in the NFL previously. He was making his debut for a team lacking in established talent. Expecting a breakout season from Fowler was optimistic and probably unrealistic. Fowler has two sacks and two passes defensed in six games, with one start.
Ladarius Green was the third-best signing in free agency
Green set career highs with 37 receptions for 429 yards and four touchdowns in 2015, his final season with San Diego. The Steelers signed him to a four-year, $20 million contract in hopes Green could give Ben Roethlisberger another receiving target. Green hasn't played a snap for the Steelers. He recently became eligible to practice after spending the first six weeks on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list. Green could still be a factor, but so far, he's not so good.
Tom Brady will not miss the first four games of the season
This prediction goes back to May, when ESPN produced a list of 100 staff predictions that would frame the 2016 season. Brady ran out of options and finally took a knee on his legal challenge. There was no legal insight behind my prediction. The entire Deflategate investigation and punishment seemed ridiculous to me, but that opinion wasn't going to override the suspension.