The best NFL organizations don't just find talent at the top of the draft. They find talent with their later picks and their undrafted rookie free agents. Last year's Super Bowl was the greatest possible advertisement for the importance of later-round picks. One starting quarterback was drafted in the third round, the other in the sixth round. Three of the six receiving touchdowns in the game were caught by undrafted players -- Danny Amendola, Doug Baldwin, and Chris Matthews -- with a fourth coming from former seventh-round pick Julian Edelman. The Seahawks got half of the Legion of Boom in the fifth round: Kam Chancellor in 2010, Richard Sherman in 2011. And the player who saved the day for the Patriots was an undrafted rookie out of West Alabama, Malcolm Butler.
Every year since 2007, Football Outsiders has put together a preseason prospect list to highlight the lower-drafted players who are set to make a much larger impact in the seasons ahead. For the uninitiated, our "top prospects" list is not like the prospect lists you read about in the world of baseball. Because the top prospects in college football are stars on national television before they get taken in the first round of the NFL Draft, there's not much reason to list them here. Everyone knows who Marcus Mariota and Todd Gurley are by this point. Instead, we use a combination of statistics, scouting, measurables, context and expected role to compile a list of under-the-radar players whom we expect to make an impact in the NFL, both in 2015 and beyond.
To focus on these players, we limit the pool to guys who fit the following criteria:
Drafted in the third round or later, or signed as an undrafted free agent
Entered the NFL between 2012 and 2014
Fewer than five career games started
Have not signed a contract extension (however, players who were cut and picked up elsewhere still qualify for the list)
Age 26 or younger in 2015
You'll see a number of references to Football Outsiders stats on our list, in particular DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average), which takes every play and compares its success to the NFL average based on situation and opponent. You can read more about that and other FO stats on this page. You'll also see a few references to Football Outsiders' systems for projecting college talent to the pros. To learn about those systems, click these links for Playmaker Score (wide receivers), SackSEER (edge rushers) and Speed Score (running backs).
This year's list had a lot of candidates, and even cutting players from the honorable mention list was tough. The players between No. 2 and No. 25 moved around a lot during the process of compiling and finalizing our list. The player at No. 1 was glaringly obvious from the get-go.
1. Martavis Bryant, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Bryant -- a 6-foot-4 receiver who ran a 4.42-second 40 and gained 22 yards per reception in college -- has pretty much everything you want from a star wideout: speed, athleticism, size, and the ability to win at the catch point. How on earth did he last until the fourth round? Playmaker Score listed Bryant in the 85th percentile of wide receiver prospects since 1996, and even that might have been artificially low because Bryant had to share the field at Clemson with Sammy Watkins. Last year, Bryant was only the second rookie receiver since 1995 to gain over 20 yards per reception (minimum 25 catches). (Kenny Stills in 2013 was the other.) An offseason elbow procedure put Bryant a bit behind Markus Wheaton in Steelers training camp, which could keep him from becoming a starter until late this season or perhaps next season. But in all truth, the only thing standing between Bryant and stardom may be a little waiting time.
2. TJ Carrie, CB, Oakland Raiders
One year after Oakland took him out of Ohio University in the seventh round, Travis "TJ" Carrie may already be the Raiders' best cornerback. Carrie was already playing 80 percent of defensive snaps in Week 1 of his rookie season, and with four games started he just barely qualifies for our Top Prospects list. He had a strong 53 percent success rate in coverage, according to Football Outsiders game charting, and his 7.1 adjusted yards per pass was the best figure on the team last year. Carrie has good hands and good instincts, and he can go up to compete with physical receivers; he's 6 feet tall, and his 41-inch vertical jump ranked third among corners at the 2014 combine. Carrie is a local kid out of Catholic high school powerhouse De La Salle, which you may remember from the recent film "When the Game Stands Tall." Now he's one of the numerous young talents finally giving Raiders fans hope for the future.
3. Jordan Hill, DT, Seattle Seahawks
Seattle chose Hill out of Penn State in the third round of the 2013 draft. He only played in four games as a rookie, but last year he became an important part of the Seahawks' defensive tackle rotation, finishing the season with 10 defeats and 5.5 sacks in only 360 snaps. That's more sacks on a per-snap basis than Cameron Wake, Marcell Dareus, DeMarcus Ware, Aaron Donald or Robert Quinn. Hill missed last year's playoffs with a calf injury, but he'll play a major role for the Seahawks in 2015. Tony McDaniel's release right before our book went to press will likely make Hill a starter this season. The big question about Hill will be just how many snaps he can play as a starter, because his lack of bulk (6-foot-1, 303 pounds) led to him wearing down against the run in college.
4. Aaron Lynch, OLB, San Francisco 49ers
Last year, this fifth-round rookie tied for the 49ers' team lead with six sacks, despite playing only half the defensive snaps. He also led the 49ers with 21 hurries and 11 quarterback hits. Our SackSEER projection system liked Lynch's potential more than his past: He had a 50.8 percent SackSEER rating, because of a strong explosion index, but only had 10.5 sacks in his two seasons of college ball. (Lynch had to sit out the 2012 season after transferring from Notre Dame to South Florida.) With Aldon Smith now cut, Lynch is battling Corey Lemonier for the starting role opposite Ahmad Brooks.
5. Latavius Murray, RB, Oakland Raiders
One tool Football Outsiders uses to scout running back prospects is Speed Score, which adjusts the back's 40 time for his weight. A good running back has a Speed Score of 100. Murray, at 223 pounds, ran his pro day 40 in 4.38 seconds for a Speed Score of 121.2 -- with an asterisk. Normally, we only consider Speed Score when players run at the combine, because players tend to run faster on their home tracks at pro days. But even if there is a little bit of home cooking in that pro day time, it doesn't change the fact that Murray is big and fast. He's also now the Raiders' starting running back, two years after they took him out of Central Florida in the sixth round of the 2013 draft. Murray lost his rookie season to an ankle injury and then barely played in the first half of last year. But he made some big plays once Oakland got him on the field in November, especially the 90-yard touchdown he scored against Kansas City during Oakland's first win of the season in Week 11.
The question with Murray is whether he can use that size to challenge defenders. We charted him with only three broken tackles in 99 touches last season, and ESPN Stats & Information tracked him with just 1.0 yards after contact, the lowest average for any back with at least 40 runs in 2014.
6. Jeremy Lane, CB, Seattle Seahawks
Lane presented a bit of a dilemma when we were debating this list among the Football Outsiders staff. Does a player who might not play this year count as a prospect for 2015? We eventually decided to include Lane because he should have a strong future as a starting NFL cornerback, even though he's likely to start 2015 on the PUP list, or even go on injured reserve, because of the arm and knee injuries he suffered in last year's Super Bowl. Lane only was healthy for seven games last year, but he was excellent, with a 71 percent success rate and 3.7 adjusted yards per pass allowed. In three seasons, we've charted 54 passes that targeted him, which would be just enough for him to be ranked on our cornerback leaderboards. Combine those three years and you get a 57 percent success rate and 6.3 adjusted yards per pass. Both numbers would have ranked Lane among last year's top 20 cornerbacks. Plus, he's one of four men who can say they've intercepted Tom Brady in a Super Bowl.
7. Ryan Davis, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars
Last season saw a number of undrafted veterans suddenly explode with big sack numbers, but there's a big difference with Davis. While Jacquies Smith and George Johnson of Tampa Bay had bounced around multiple organizations, Davis has been developed solely by the Jaguars since they brought him up I-95 from Bethune-Cookman in 2012. Gus Bradley used Davis in a number of ways: as a traditional end, a standing "Leo" end and a pass-rushing defensive tackle. The Jaguars built their high sack count (45) last year with coverage sacks and blitzes, but that's not where Davis got his sacks. Six of Davis' 6.5 sacks were marked as blown blocks, and four of those six came with a standard four pass-rushers. Davis also was second on the Jaguars with 11.5 hurries and six quarterback hits.
8. Donte Moncrief, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Moncrief was one of the 14 different rookie wide receivers with a Playmaker Score over 80 percent last year, and they couldn't all go in the first two rounds. We're pretty sure he was fine lasting until the Colts drafted him at No. 90, because that plugged him into a powerful offense with the best young quarterback in the game. Like Martavis Bryant, Moncrief combines size (6-foot-2, 221 pounds) with speed (4.40-second 40), and he just turned 22 in August. The Patriots respected Moncrief enough to put Darrelle Revis on him for most of the AFC Championship Game. The problem for Moncrief now is that the Colts' decision to draft Phillip Dorsett really confused his place on the depth chart. Moncrief should get more playing time this season, especially early on, but what happens if Dorsett surpasses him? NFL teams do not throw a lot to their No. 4 receivers, no matter how much the offense loves to throw the ball overall.
9. Joseph Randle, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Randle has ability and opportunity, but let's be honest, the latter outweighs the former right now. Having the first crack at a starting job behind the best offensive line in football is a pretty nice ticket to stardom. Randle certainly looked like a future star last year, gaining 343 yards on 51 carries for a remarkable 6.7 yards per carry. But you don't want to put more stock into that than you do the 3.0 yards per carry he put up with 54 carries the year before. The worry about Randle coming out of Oklahoma State was that he didn't have the burst or power to get more than what the line blocked for him. It might be hard to tell if that's still the case should the Cowboys' line blocks as well as it did last year.
10. Malcolm Butler, CB, New England Patriots
How unknown was the hero of Super Bowl XLIX before he got his hands on that final pass to end Seattle's dreams of a repeat? As of late July, five months after the Immaculate Interception, Butler was still listed on the NFL's website as a strong safety. The three passes Butler got his hand on during Seattle's last drive showed an upside that makes you wonder how he came within a whisker of not even getting an NFL shot. (Playing college ball at Division II West Alabama was part of it.) On the other hand, Butler was just mediocre in his overall regular-season performance and got beat deep a couple of times, leading to a 51 percent adjusted success rate (fairly average) and 10.5 adjusted yards allowed per pass (not good). He'll need more consistency to become a longtime NFL starter and not the Timmy Smith of defensive backs.
Brief aside: The other Super Bowl hero, Chris Matthews, is ineligible for our list because he's been a professional too long. He was one of Cleveland's last cuts as an undrafted rookie in 2011, then went to Arena Football and the CFL before returning to the NFL with Seattle last year. As we saw in the Super Bowl, he definitely has potential for a nice (but late-starting) NFL career.
11. Pierre Desir, CB, Cleveland Browns
The undrafted K'Waun Williams played more than Desir as a rookie, but Desir is the more talented player in the long run. The Browns knew Desir would require some development time when they took him in the fourth-round out of Division II Lindenwood, and knee problems in the preseason of his rookie year didn't help. Like Antonio Cromartie, Desir is a long, boundary cornerback who has natural ball skills but needs to stay outside to be effective.
12. Isaiah Crowell, RB, Cleveland Browns
Once upon a time, Crowell was an elite, five-star running back recruit. Then he got kicked out of the University of Georgia for a felony weapons arrest and finished his college career at FCS Alabama State. The Browns signed Crowell as an undrafted free agent; he hasn't caused any off-field problems, and the talent was clearly still there. Crowell still has excellent balance and vision to move through his blockers. His combine 40 time of 4.57 seconds is more impressive when you consider that he weighed in at 224 pounds, giving him a 102.7 Speed Score. By the end of his rookie year, Crowell moved past third-round pick Terrance West on the Browns' depth chart, and he'll probably be the Cleveland starter in 2015. He's not much of a receiver, so rookie Duke Johnson Jr. will fill the role of third-down back.
13. Shawn Williams, FS, Cincinnati Bengals
Williams is clearly being groomed as replacement for Reggie Nelson -- unless George Iloka gets a huge free-agent offer and leaves instead. He has hardly played on defense since the Bengals took him in the third round of the 2013 draft, but that's because the starters have been so good and the Bengals never use three safeties. Williams has been excellent on special teams, with 18 special-teams tackles over his first two seasons. He's a good tackler with excellent range, though he needs to improve on his ball skills.
14. John Urschel, G, Baltimore Ravens
Our favorite math wizard won't get into the lineup ahead of Marshal Yanda or Kelechi Osemele, but he's the top reserve and in line to take over if/when one of the two starters leaves via free agency next year. As you might expect from a guy who won the Campbell Trophy, aka the "Academic Heisman," Urschel is considered technically sound but athletically limited. But his play as a rookie was anything but limited. When injuries forced him to start three games in Year 1, we charted him with no sacks allowed and just one blown block leading to a run for loss. Urschel also can play center and is Baltimore's top backup there, as well.
15. Jonathan Newsome, OLB, Indianapolis Colts
Newsome already has had some pretty big days in his one year as a member of the Colts. He had his first NFL start in Week 17 last year and won the AFC Defensive Player of the Week award with two sacks, a forced fumble and eight tackles. Then he strip-sacked Peyton Manning in the playoffs. For the regular season as a whole, Newsome had 6.5 sacks and 14 hurries in just 390 snaps, basically the same rate of pressure as Aaron Lynch.
Newsome's NFL success was a bit surprising, since he had a very poor SackSEER rating of 15.4 percent. Part of that rating is that passes defensed are a strong sign of a versatile pass rusher, and Newsome had just two in college. But his rating also is depressed by the two years he spent as a benchwarmer with no sacks at Ohio State before transferring to Ball State for his final two seasons. There's a real question as to whether Newsome will even get a chance to build on the success of his rookie year. His path to playing time seems blocked by the eventual (October?) return of Robert Mathis, the free-agent signing of Trent Cole and the continued employment of Erik Walden.
16. Antone Exum Jr., FS, Minnesota Vikings
Harrison Smith is a great young safety for the Vikings, but who will play next to him? The Vikings seem lukewarm on Robert Blanton, and they may want to go with more of a center fielder so Smith can play closer to the line of scrimmage and make big plays. Enter 2014 sixth-round pick Antone Exum out of Virginia Tech, a converted college cornerback who played primarily on special teams as he learned his new position last season. Exum is a fluid mover with good ball skills, though he sometimes took poor angles to tackle in college.
17. Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta's fourth-round pick last year is a 5-foot-8 scatback with a lot of short-area quickness. He didn't have great numbers as a rookie -- 3.8 yards per carry with -22.9% DVOA -- but he wasn't exactly running behind great blocking, either. Freeman did have a nice rookie year as a receiver, catching 30 passes for 225 yards, and he had an impressive 15 broken tackles on less than 100 touches. Freeman may begin the season as the Atlanta starter but will likely lose the job by the end of the year to rookie Tevin Coleman. Even as a backup, however, he'll have a lot of value to Atlanta on third downs.
18. Brandon Thomas, G, San Francisco 49ers
Thomas is one of the 49ers' recent "redshirt" draft picks. The Clemson product tore his ACL at a pre-draft workout with New Orleans, which enabled the 49ers to snap him up with the last third-round pick in the 2014 draft. Now he's healthy and ready to compete for Mike Iupati's old spot at left guard. Thomas has a strong initial punch and above-average quickness to get to the second level. He should fit in well with San Francisco's run-heavy offensive scheme.
19. Aaron Colvin, CB, Jacksonville Jaguars
A torn ACL at the 2014 Senior Bowl dropped Aaron Colvin down to the Jaguars in the fourth round, but it actually didn't cause him to miss his entire rookie season. Colvin was activated in Week 12 and played at least 50 percent of the snaps in each of Jacksonville's last six games. He had unimpressive charting metrics, but it still takes time for players to recover and get their full speed back after returning from ACL surgery. Colvin (5-foot-11, 177 pounds) doesn't quite have the size associated with the Seahawks/Jaguars defensive scheme, but Jacksonville's coaching staff loves his instincts, work ethic and physical play in zone coverage.
20. Josh Huff, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Look, it's a shifty YAC-producing slot receiver who went to the University of Oregon. You wouldn't be able to find space for a guy like that in the Eagles' offense, would you? It's a nice added bonus that Huff is also a strong run-blocker. The biggest hurdle for Huff might be that the Eagles would prefer to use Jordan Matthews as their slot receiver instead. That means moving Huff outside, and scouts generally thought that coming into the NFL, Huff would need more route-running work before he could play outside regularly.
21. Caraun Reid, DT, Detroit Lions
Hey, somebody has to get snaps at defensive tackle for the Lions besides Haloti Ngata. Reid was probably a little underdrafted as a fifth-round pick last year. Yes, he comes out of Princeton, but he impressed against stronger competition at the Senior Bowl. He's more of a pass-rusher than a run-stopper, and scouting reports suggested he could be good as a 4-3 "tilted" nose tackle or as an end in one-gapping 3-4 schemes. The Lions are talking about incorporating more of the latter into their defense this season, making Reid a challenger to Tyrunn Walker for pass-rushing snaps.
22. Dontae Johnson, CB, San Francisco 49ers
A fourth-round rookie from North Carolina State, Johnson gradually took over last season as San Francisco's nickelback and was a full-time player by Week 15. He started and played 97 percent of defensive snaps in the last three games of the year. As befits a nickelback, Johnson did an excellent job of preventing yardage (6.7 adjusted yards per pass) but was not quite as strong at preventing first downs (49 percent success rate). But those numbers are a little more impressive, given that Johnson was seen on draft day as a raw athlete with questionable college film. Johnson was supposed to require development, but the original baseline was supposed to be "not ready to play in the NFL." Instead, it looks like his development is already starting with a baseline of "reasonable," which means there's a better chance that the end-point of Johnson's potential is going to be "very good."
23. DaQuan Jones, DE, Tennessee Titans
Our No. 23 prospect actually played alongside our No. 3 prospect Jordan Hill as a junior at Penn State. Most draft analysts expected him to go in the second round, but he ended up falling to the fourth, where Tennessee snagged him to play as a 5-technique in their 3-4 defense. Jones didn't play much last season until he started the final game, but the Titans are ready to put him in the starting lineup for this campaign. Jones has good size at 6-foot-4 and 322 pounds, along with outstanding upper body strength and a violent rip move. Unlike his old teammate Hill, he's not going to be a gap-shooting pass-rusher who shows up in the highlights taking down the quarterback. He's more of a run-stuffer to complement Jurrell Casey on the other side and may come off the field when the Titans go to a 4-2-5 nickel.
24. Billy Turner, G, Miami Dolphins
Miami's new right guard has strong bloodlines, as his father Maurice played five years in the NFL as a running back. The Dolphins made him the highest drafted player from North Dakota State since 2002 when they took him in last year's third round. Turner was a two-time All-American at the FCS level, and like Caraun Reid, he impressed against bigger-school competition at the 2014 Senior Bowl. Unlike most college tackles who move inside at the pro level, Turner is considered a better pass-blocker than run-blocker.
25. Barrett Jones, C, St. Louis Rams
Jones poses an interesting question about trying to translate college linemen to the pros: Just how meaningful are the awards that a player wins in college? As a junior left tackle, Jones won the Outland Trophy as the best lineman in college football. As a senior, he switched to center to fill a hole on the Alabama depth chart and won the Rimington Trophy as the best center in college football. Despite all these accolades, Jones fell to the fourth round because he's only considered an average athlete. Then he lost his first two NFL seasons to injury, missing his rookie year with a Lisfranc foot injury and his second year with back problems. Jones is penciled in as the Rams' starting center this season.
HONORABLE MENTION
Carl Bradford, ILB, Packers
Delvin Breaux, CB, Saints
Jay Bromley, DT, Giants
Jaron Brown, WR, Cardinals
Jackson Jeffcoat, OLB, Redskins
AJ McCarron, QB, Bengals
Kevin Pamphile, G/T, Buccaneers
James White, RB, Patriots
Damien Williams, RB, Dolphins
Albert Wilson, WR, Chiefs