Week 11 of the 2022 college football season is stacked with excellent matchups, including Alabama-Ole Miss. Washington also travels to Oregon, and TCU -- now the No. 4 team in the nation -- gets a tough road test against Texas. Which 2023 NFL draft prospects will stand out on Saturday?
Ahead of the loaded schedule, NFL draft analysts Todd McShay, Jordan Reid and Matt Miller pick prospects to watch this weekend, along with the one thing they each are keeping an eye on. They also look ahead to April's draft, breaking down teams currently without a first-round pick. Then Steve Muench points to a small-school prospect who could get more draft attention with a big performance.
Our experts wrap it all up by making predictions for Week 11 and emptying their notebooks with everything they saw and heard this week.
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Prospects to know | What to watch
Outside Round 1 | Small-schooler
Big predictions for Week 11
Emptying the notebook
Plant your flag: Who is your guy to watch this weekend?
McShay: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas (vs. TCU). I'll be covering the TCU-Texas game on Saturday night and keeping a close eye on Robinson, who could put on a show. He has been sensational this season, rushing for 1,129 yards and 12 scores in just nine games while also catching 19 passes for 314 yards and another pair of touchdowns. At 6-foot-0 and 222 pounds, he has a unique blend of sharp-cutting ability, contact balance and open-field elusiveness. Facing a Horned Frogs defense allowing 396.9 yards per game (86th in the nation), Robinson will show why he's the RB1 in the 2023 class and a potential top-15 pick.
Miller: Tanner McKee, QB, Stanford (at Utah). This is not a prime year for Stanford football, with a 3-6 record and a roster surprisingly light on future NFL talent. But McKee is a viable prospect, with some scouts even believing he's a sleeper first-rounder. He is a 6-foot-6, 230-pound junior with a monster right arm and classic pocket-style play. That's still appealing to NFL front offices who want to drive the ball down the field. McKee's numbers have not been overwhelmingly strong on a lackluster Cardinal roster -- he has 11 touchdowns to seven interceptions -- but a matchup against a very good Utah defense could give him the late bump he needs this season before making an NFL draft decision.
Reid: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon (vs. Washington). The Colorado transfer had his best game of the season last week against his former team, showing off his high-end ball skills (two interceptions), awareness and hip fluidity. He is a big corner at 6-foot-2, 201 pounds, but his body control and polished technique are really impressive traits. Now the Ducks' secondary matches up against Washington, the top passing attack in the country (370.2 passing yards per game, almost 35 yards more than the next team). Gonzalez will be tested plenty. The race for CB1 is far from over, and while Gonzalez is currently my CB2 and No. 14 overall player, another standout performance could catapult him even higher on my board.
What is the one thing you're watching this weekend?
Reid: Florida State edge rusher Jared Verse against Syracuse offensive tackle Matthew Bergeron is one of the best prospect vs. prospect matchups of the weekend. Verse has been impressive since returning from a knee injury, recording 21 tackles and 2.5 sacks over the past five game, and is trending toward first-round status. His 13.3% defensive pressure percentage is the 17th-best mark in the country. At 6-foot-4 and 251 pounds, he has an intriguing blend of length, power and versatile pass-rush move arsenal.
The 6-foot-5, 322-pound Bergeron, meanwhile, displays a springy pass set, plenty of awareness and improving hands. His lack of strength is a little concerning, but he has starter-level traits and could be selected in the top 75 at the draft. Good coaching at the next level will be the key to his development.
Miller: Can Oregon quarterback Bo Nix continue his amazing turnaround against a good Washington defense? He has been reborn under coach Dan Lanning's staff after transferring from Auburn following three up-and-down years. On the year, he has 22 passing touchdowns -- and 13 rushing touchdowns -- to just five interceptions while playing a looser brand of football that is much more comfortable and confident. The 6-foot-2, 213-pound Nix is one of the big risers in this year's draft class; he is currently my QB7 and a potential Day 2 selection.
End Zone! Bo Nix scores 1-yard rushing TD
McShay: How will Tennessee's offensive trio of QB Hendon Hooker, WR Jalin Hyatt and WR Cedric Tillman respond against Missouri after struggling against Georgia's defense last week? At 6-foot and 180 pounds, Hyatt is an absolute burner who got pushed around a bit too much by the Bulldogs' defenders. He's a projected first- or second-round pick, but inconsistency has been an issue and his play strength needs to improve.
Tillman lacks Hyatt's speed, but he's a big, physical route runner (6-foot-3, 215 pounds) who excels on contested catches and generates a lot of yards after the catch with his run strength. He appears close to 100% after missing four games due to a left ankle injury and now needs a strong finish to secure a spot in the top 50 picks.
Which NFL team currently lacking a first-rounder will miss it the most?
Miller: Los Angeles Rams. They have done a stellar job building through free agency, trades and late-round draft picks, but the roster now looks old and inept at key positions with few pathways to a restock. That's where a 2023 first-round selection would be crucial, as the front office looks at left tackle and edge rusher as premium needs that are often very hard (and expensive) to fill via free agency and the trade market.
Yes, general manager Les Snead has a Super Bowl ring, and fans are likely to be very patient as the team fills the existing needs and looks to stay ahead of future retirements, free agent movement and regression. But the time to hit on foundation positions like left tackle, defensive end and wide receiver early in the draft is now.
Reid: New Orleans Saints. Receiver Chris Olave looks like an early favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year, but the 2023 pick New Orleans traded to land him is trending toward a top-10 selection. Since the retirement of Drew Brees, the Saints have struggled to find an entrenched solution for his replacement. Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston aren't the long-term answers, and without a first-round selection, they won't be in position to take one of the top signal callers in the 2023 draft class.
Which small-school prospect has a key matchup on deck?
Muench: Tyson Bagent, QB, Shepherd (at Mercyhurst). No Division II quarterback has thrown for more touchdowns over the course of his career than Bagent, who tallied 5,000 passing yards and 53 touchdown throws in 2021 alone. He has thrown for at least two touchdowns in every game this year and has got a chance to lead the Rams to 11-0 if they beat Mercyhurst this weekend.
Bagent locates the open man, is accurate and shows good touch. Plus, he moves well in the pocket and is capable of making off-platform throws when he gets moved off his spot. The biggest concerns outside of the level of competition he has faced are his arm strength and ability to drive the ball. But the way he breaks down defenses and distributes the ball, along with a 6-foot-3, 210-pound frame and quick footspeed, makes him an intriguing Day 3 prospect.
What's the Week 11 prediction you feel great about?
Miller: Penn State cornerback Joey Porter Jr. will have another statement game on Saturday, this time going head-to-head with Maryland wide receiver Rakim Jarrett. My CB1, Porter has 6-foot-2 size, length, toughness and instincts as a physical cornerback prospect. He will have his hands full if Jarrett is able to go (lower-leg injury); the Terrapins' pass-catcher has the short-area quickness and agility to give bigger corners like Porter a rough outing. But Porter has shown the ability to hang with a crafty route-runner in the past, and I expect him to shut down his side of the field and walk away with a rare interception of Terps quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa.
McShay: Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs will rack up 150-plus yards of total offense against Ole Miss. The Rebels' run defense ranks 67th in yards allowed per rush (4.0) and was overwhelmed by the Tide's rushing attack last year, when Brian Robinson Jr. rushed for 171 yards and four touchdowns on 36 attempts. I don't envision Gibbs getting that type of workload -- he's just not that type of back. But I do think coach Nick Saban wants to lean heavily on the run game in a matchup that Alabama should be able to control in the trenches.
Gibbs has been dinged up a bit this year, which is why his production might not match that of a potential first-round prospect, but he is still averaging 6.8 yards per carry and has 39 receptions. His suddenness and field vision are elite traits, and he's the fastest player on the Alabama team, according to in-game GPS recordings. Ole Miss might have the third-ranked rushing attack in college football, but look for the 5-foot-11 Gibbs to be the story in The Grove on Saturday.
Reid: Look for TCU receiver Quentin Johnston to have over 150 yards receiving and two touchdowns against the Longhorns. Prior to last week, he had a touchdown reception in four straight contests, and after TCU was bumped up to the No. 4 spot in the College Football Playoff ranking, Johnston -- who is battling an ankle injury -- will have to step up even more for the offense. His ability on contested catches really pops on tape, as he shows outstanding hand-eye coordination and the ability to come down with 50-50 balls at the catch point. And Johnston is not only a go-up-and-get-it type of target -- he's also a diverse route runner who can take advantage of the short and intermediate areas. The 6-foot-4, 215-pound junior has a chance to be the first receiver off of the board in April.
Max Duggan finds Quentin Johnston for a 55-yard touchdown reception.
Muench: Alabama safety DeMarcco Hellams will make at least 10 tackles for the fourth consecutive game. He is Alabama's leading tackler (56) and should get plenty of chances for more against the high-tempo Ole Miss offense. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 208 pounds, Hellams is also strong enough to compete when he lines up at linebacker depth and get off blocks when he lines up on the outside. Sure, the Rebels have some talented runners in Zach Evans and Quinshon Judkins, and Hellams misses the occasional tackle. But he has good stopping power, and his range, angles and effort will put him in the position to make plays against Ole Miss' perimeter runs, inside runs and pass-game quick-hitters when he plays high.
Emptying the notebook: Everything we heard this week
Miller: Scouts keep mentioning Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter. In fact, one AFC scout said Carter is his top overall player in the upcoming class, over Alabama's Will Anderson Jr. and a strong group of quarterbacks. Carter, a 6-foot-3, 300-pound pass-rushing 3-technique with a special mix of quickness and power, has reminded evaluators in back-to-back games of his immense potential. He has eight tackles, four pressures and a sack over those two games.
Reid: Ole Miss running back Zach Evans has been impressive over his past three performances, averaging 7.7 yards per carry, but now faces a tough test against the Alabama defense. At 6-foot and 215 pounds, he's tough to bring down. Evans' vision, strength as a ball-carrier and contact balance are his clear best traits. Since transferring from TCU, he has quickly transitioned into a big role in the Rebels' offense, showing growth between the tackles while also displaying versatility as a perimeter runner. His performance in the passing game has also improved. I see Evans as a Day 2 target for running back-needy teams.
McShay: Texas Tech is coming off it's fifth loss of the season, but star defensive end Tyree Wilson continues to raise his draft stock. The 6-foot-6, 275-pound fifth-year senior frequently overwhelmed TCU offensive linemen last week with his length and finishing power. He notched 12 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss and a half sack, and his play on tape was even more disruptive than his stat line. Every scout I've talked to in the past three weeks agrees that Wilson has solidified a spot in Round 1. Against Kansas this Saturday, he will look to add to his already impressive 34 pressures, 14 tackles for loss and seven sacks.
Reid: Mississippi State cornerback Emmanuel Forbes missed last week's overtime thriller against Auburn with an undisclosed injury, and scouts are hoping that Forbes is healthy enough to play against No. 1-ranked Georgia on Saturday. The 6-foot, 180-pound junior already has five interceptions and tied an SEC record with five career pick-sixes. He has elite ball production and is a threat to change the outlook of a game in an instant. But the Bulldogs' offense will be a great test for Forbes in both pass coverage and as a tackler. He is trending toward a top-50 pick with the potential to climb even higher with a strong performance this week.
McShay: Two of the biggest risers in the upcoming draft class are a pair of SEC defensive backs in Alabama safety Brian Branch and Texas A&M cornerback Jaylon Jones. Alabama has three safeties with draftable grades, but Branch has clearly been the best all-around player of the trio. He can play in the box, as a single-high safety and hold up in a lot of one-on-one matchups. Branch has great instincts and supports the run like a linebacker, and his versatility will be a big asset against Ole Miss' dominant rushing attack on Saturday. The 6-foot, 193-pounder is the top safety on my board and has played his way into Round 1.
And Jones, a long corner at 6-foot-2 and 205 pounds, has shown impressive instincts in coverage for such an inexperienced corner. Despite barely being on the draft radar before the season, Jones is getting Day 2 love from a pair of scouts I've spoken to recently.
Miller: As Jordan pointed out earlier, keep an eye on TCU's Johnston this weekend in a crucial game against Texas. He is one of the best receivers in the nation and a potential first-round prospect, but he didn't practice earlier this week and was considered questionable to play. The Horned Frogs will need him against an aggressive Longhorns defense, and Johnston can use the opportunity to further build a case as a top-32 prospect. He has 42 catches for 450 yards and four touchdowns this season, and he would no doubt love to build on that against the school he originally committed to as a high-school recruit.
Reid: OK, how about a late-round player to keep an eye on this weekend? After suffering a torn ACL during the latter portions of last season, Louisville cornerback Kei'Trel Clark (a Liberty transfer) has bounced back in a big way. He has been active on the perimeter and in the slot during the team's four-game win streak, and the 5-foot-10, 177-pounder plays much bigger than his frame indicates. He's very fluid in his back pedal, trusts his instincts in coverage and is physical as a run defender. Likely a nickel corner at the next level, Clark could be targeted in the early portions of Day 3. He will be matched up against a tough Clemson team this weekend.