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No. 3: Houston Rockets
Last Season: 56-26
T-2nd place in West; Lost 4-1 to Golden State in Western Conference finals
Despite limping through a regular season that saw them join the Milwaukee Bucks as one of two playoff teams to lose more than 150 games to injury, the Houston Rockets took advantage of fortuitous seeding and a series of improbable comebacks to reach the Western Conference finals for the first time since Rudy Tomjanovich walked the sidelines and Hakeem Olajuwon patrolled the middle.
Now, Houston is healthy and deeper than ever with the addition of point guard Ty Lawson this summer. Can adding Lawson to a core of MVP runner-up James Harden and Dwight Howard push the Rockets into the ranks of true title contenders? That's what they hope.
Injuries struck Houston almost from the beginning of the season. Starting point guard Patrick Beverley missed nearly all of November with hamstring injuries, and he was quickly joined on the sidelines by starting power forward Terrence Jones (who missed 41 games with a peroneal nerve contusion) and star center Howard, who missed 37 games due to a pair of knee injuries.
While Harden's individual brilliance kept the Rockets afloat, general manager Daryl Morey worked to reinforce the roster. In December, Houston dealt for forward Corey Brewer from the Minnesota Timberwolves. Later that month, the Rockets scored a coup when forward Josh Smith chose them over several other suitors after being waived by the Detroit Pistons. Brewer and Smith became key members of a faster-paced second unit that helped Houston survive with Harden on the bench.
By the spring, Howard and Jones returned, but the Rockets lost Beverley (wrist) and big man Donatas Motiejunas (back) to season-ending surgeries. Still, Houston claimed the second seed in the West by virtue of the San Antonio Spurs' loss on the final night of the regular season, and defeated an imploding Dallas Mavericks team 4-1 in the opening round to advance for the first time since 2009.
When the L.A. Clippers took a commanding 3-1 lead in their conference semifinal matchup, it appeared that was as far as the Rockets would go. But they rallied to extend the series, coming back from a 19-point deficit of the second half of Game Six in L.A. and winning the deciding game at home to set up a conference finals matchup with the Golden State Warriors. Houston was competitive at times before succumbing to the Warriors in five games.
Even with Harden averaging 27.4 points per game, good for second in the NBA, the Rockets were only slightly better than league average in offensive rating (104.2 points per 100 possessions, 12th) during the regular season. They won instead with the NBA's sixth-best defense on a per-possession basis.
Houston was slightly better with Howard healthy in the playoffs, but the lack of playmaking sources besides Harden was problematic. Enter Lawson. The Rockets were able to acquire the starting point guard, who ranked third in the league with 9.6 assists per game in 2014-15, while giving up fringe players and a protected 2016 first-round pick. Lawson came cheap after entering court-mandated rehab following his second DUI arrest of 2015. His struggle with alcoholism is a serious matter, but if Lawson can stay on the court, he'll bring a new dimension to the Houston attack.
The Rockets' offseason was otherwise quiet. They re-signed Beverley to a bargain four-year, $23 million contract as a restricted free agent and Brewer for a similar amount over three years. Houston also dipped into its mid-level exception to re-sign second-year wing K.J. McDaniels. Depending how the rotation shakes out, Lawson should be the only newcomer to see regular minutes.
When the Rockets acquired Lawson over the summer, the goal was to have another ball handler and somebody who can create on the offensive end. The Rockets want to take pressure off Harden because defenses would tighten down on him, which forced more turnovers and eventually wore him down physically as the season progressed. By adding Lawson, the Rockets also plan on increasing the number of 3-pointers this season to 40 per game.
Of course, the chemistry between Lawson and Harden is the key to making this work.
"I think James can get off the ball and Ty is very good at creating good shots for everybody on the floor," coach Kevin McHale said. "His vision and spurt to get into the paint and his vision when he gets in there is tremendous. I think it's going to help James a lot. James can get off the ball and he's been getting some really nice catch and shoots off Ty's penetrations. We'll see more of that." -- Calvin Watkins
Projected Real Plus-Minus for starters
Ty Lawson, PG: +2.8
James Harden, SG: +6.6
Trevor Ariza, SF: +0.9
Terrence Jones, PF: -0.7
Dwight Howard, C: +3.6
Scouting reports on every player on the Rockets
Using shot data from 2014-15 and projected starters, Grantland's Kirk Goldsberry ranks each team's offensive efficiency based on square footage.
Inside: Howard (second in paint points per game at 12.1) and Harden (seventh among guards, 8.3) force defenses to collapse at the rim.
Outside: Ariza and Harden shot 1,110 3's last season. The Wolves: 1,223 as a team. One team made the Western Conference finals. One team -- did not.
All about the space: 24th (381 sq. ft. of above-average offense)
To identify players who stretch offenses the most, ESPN Stats & Information created the Kyle Korver effect -- a metric on a 1-100 scale, factoring in 3-point percentage, 3-point attempt rate (percentage of total shots that come from 3-point range) and influence on teammate FG percentage.
Korver effect: Harden, the team's best spacer, also projects to be the league's top scorer (24.9 points per game).
Houston's hopes of another deep playoff run hinge on a few factors. Lawson's ability to stay on the court and out of legal trouble is obviously paramount, as is whether the Rockets get the healthy Howard who dominated in the playoffs and not the lesser version who battled injury during the regular season. Houston could also use better shooting. While the Rockets led the NBA in 3-pointers because of their emphasis on the longball under analytical GM Morey, they shot slightly worse than league average beyond the arc. Even a small improvement would help Houston's offensive efficiency.
Because the West is so deep, the answers to those questions will determine whether the Rockets belong with the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs in the top tier of contenders or slip behind the Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder to fifth in the West and don't even get home-court advantage in the opening round.
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