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No. 2: San Antonio Spurs
Last Season: 55-27
T-5th place in West; Lost 4-3 to the Clippers in Round 1
The San Antonio Spurs had accomplished pretty much everything a franchise can during the Tim Duncan era ... except signing a marquee free agent. Aside from their run at Jason Kidd in the summer of 2003, the Spurs had never even been players for the top free agents on the market. The biggest name they'd signed via free agency was either Brent Barry or Rasho Nesterovic.
That changed in a big way this summer, as San Antonio's contracts and the willingness of veterans to take less money lined up perfectly for the Spurs to land the most accomplished free agent to change teams, four-time All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge. With Aldridge joining the core of the roster that won a championship just 16 months ago and was perhaps the NBA's best team after the 2014-15 All-Star break, the Spurs are poised to make a run at yet another championship.
The other thing San Antonio hasn't done with Duncan is repeat as champions. The Spurs began last season with realistic hopes of defending their title, but they struggled early. Injuries were a major factor -- center Tiago Splitter missed the first month with a calf injury, forward Kawhi Leonard lost a month to a torn ligament in his hand and while point guard Tony Parker stayed in the lineup, he wasn't himself because of a lingering hamstring injury.
San Antonio was 34-23 after losing at Portland on Feb. 25 and nearly as close to the lottery as home-court advantage in the Western Conference. But the Spurs put together one of their trademark runs, reeling off 21 wins in their next 24 games. Still, a loss on the final night of the regular season doomed San Antonio to the sixth seed and a brutal matchup against the L.A. Clippers.
The two West powers waged a seven-game series for the history books, trading blows through a Game 7 that wasn't decided until the final buzzer. Alas, Chris Paul's late jumper eliminated San Antonio for the team's earliest playoff exit since 2011.
The Spurs began setting up this summer's strike last fall, when they declined to extend Leonard's contract. That made the defensive player of the year a restricted free agent with a smaller cap hold ($7.2 million) than his inevitable maximum salary. A similarly small cap hold for Danny Green and the possibility of Duncan and Manu Ginobili taking pay cuts allowed San Antonio to create max-level cap room once they traded Splitter, who was sent to the Atlanta Hawks on the opening day of free agency.
After quickly agreeing to new deals with Leonard (five years, $94-plus million) and Green (four years, $40 million), San Antonio pitched Aldridge on returning to his native Texas. A second meeting and the influence of Spurs assistant Ime Udoka (Aldridge's former teammate in Portland) helped seal the deal, and Aldridge committed to sign a four-year max deal worth more than $84 million.
San Antonio used its remaining cap space to re-sign Duncan (for a bargain $10.9 million over two years) before giving Ginobili a two-year, $5.8 million deal via the room exception. Besides Splitter, the Spurs sacrificed reserves Aron Baynes, Marco Belinelli and Cory Joseph but got a break in rebuilding their depth when aging two-time All-Star David West agreed to take an enormous pay cut and sign on for the veteran's minimum.
Several NBA observers crowned the Spurs winners of the offseason due to the acquisitions of Aldridge and West to go with the club bringing back Duncan and Ginobili, while signing Green and Leonard to new deals. The moves certainly keep alive San Antonio's chances to win a second title in three years. But the Spurs also know personnel moves on paper don't guarantee triumphs on the court, with the team trying to integrate the new players into the system alongside stalwarts such as Duncan, Tony Parker, Leonard, Ginobili and Green.
"It's going to be a process," Duncan said. "Obviously, we've added talent and that's wonderful. We're going to have to work them in and have them figure out how to play with us, and for us how to play with them. It will be a process, and [coach Gregg Popovich] is excited about it. I'm excited about it, and I know the guys coming in are [excited]. It's great to be in a situation right now to say we have a chance again." -- Michael Wright
Projected Real Plus-Minus for starters
Tony Parker, PG: -2.1
Danny Green, SG: +4.2
Kawhi Leonard, SF: +7.4
LaMarcus Aldridge, PF: +3.5
Tim Duncan, C: +3.5
Scouting reports on every player on the Spurs
Using shot data from 2014-15 and projected starters, Grantland's Kirk Goldsberry ranks each team's offensive efficiency based on square footage.
Duncan hit 64.9 percent within 5 feet last year -- higher than his average in his consecutive MVP seasons (64.8 percent in 2001-02 and 2002-03).
Aldridge loves the left-side baseline mid-range jumper; the ex-Blazer hit more long 2s last season (327) than the Rockets did as a team (243).
All about the space: 2nd (506 sq. ft. of above-average offense)
To identify players who stretch offenses the most, ESPN Stats & Information created the Kyle Korver effect -- a metric on a 1-100 scale, factoring in 3-point percentage, 3-point attempt rate (percentage of total shots that come from 3-point range) and influence on teammate FG percentage.
Korver effect: Among players with 1,000-plus attempts through six seasons, Green (93.7) is fourth in 3-point percentage (42 percent).
After relying on continuity the past four seasons, San Antonio must find a way to integrate Aldridge's unique skills into Gregg Popovich's system. The Spurs also face questions about their rebuilt bench and whether Parker can stay healthy for a full season.
Those concerns noted, don't overthink this. San Antonio already was as good as anyone in the NBA in 2014-15 after getting healthy and has upgraded its starting five with the addition of Aldridge. There might be some growing pains early on, but if any coach and team has shown the ability to work through them, it's Popovich and the Spurs. San Antonio should be a juggernaut by February. RPM-based projections show them just behind the defending champion Golden State Warriors in the West, and as one of the three leading contenders to win the title. At this point, it would be folly to bet against the Spurs.
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