Here are our player scouting reports and 2015-16 analysis for the Houston Rockets.
Projected starters
Ty Lawson
Position: Guard
Experience: 6 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Speedy point guard who has developed into premier playmaker
+ Threat to score or pass out of pick-and-roll. OK spot-up shooter
+ Average to below average defender. Undersized, though strong
Analysis
Lawson's tenure with the Denver Nuggets ended in bizarre, sad fashion. Lawson clashed with former head coach Brian Shaw, missing the Nuggets' first practice after the All-Star break. When Denver drafted point guard Emmanuel Mudiay, Lawson posted a video of his reaction where he declared, "I'm going to Sacramento." Lawson's arrest on DUI charges in July, his second in six months, was the breaking point. The Nuggets quickly traded Lawson to Houston for a package of four reserves and a protected first-round pick.
The Rockets acquired Lawson while he was in a court-ordered rehab program, and first and foremost he must avoid drinking and driving. If that's the case, Lawson can be an important addition to Houston, which needed another playmaker alongside James Harden. Lawson averaged 9.6 assists per game last season, posting an assist rate nearly double that of any Rockets point guard. Of course, that's partially because Harden is effectively Houston's point guard, and Lawson will have to spend more time playing off the ball when they're on the court together. He's a 36.9 percent career 3-point shooter, though he shot a career-low 34.1 percent last season. Expect Kevin McHale to stagger Lawson's minutes so he's on the court when Harden is not. The offense can run through Lawson's pick-and-rolls in those situations.
While Lawson rated poorly on defense in ESPN's real plus-minus last season (minus-2.4 points per 100 possessions, 66th among point guards), he's been closer to average in the past. Lawson's sub-6-foot size is a major reason he slipped to 18th in the 2009 draft, but he compensates with strength and a low center of gravity. Declining quickness might be an issue for Lawson on defense in the future, but last season's drop-off could be a symptom of his unhappiness in Denver.
James Harden
Position: Guard
Experience: 6 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Finished as runner-up for MVP after breakthrough season established him as top-flight scorer
+ Excels with the ball in his hands. Threat to pull up, drive or dish and gets to the free throw line regularly
+ Improved oft-maligned defensive effort last season, a factor in Rockets' improvement on defense
Analysis
Opponents had plenty of reason to fear "The Beard" last season, as Harden finished second in the NBA in scoring and ninth in assists per game. Most player value metrics ranked him nearly even with Stephen Curry, and they finished a close 1-2 in MVP voting, with Harden edging out Curry for the inaugural NBA players association's "Players Choice" MVP award.
With Dwight Howard missing half the regular season, and limited when he did play, Harden pushed his usage rate from 27.8 percent of Houston's plays to a career-high 31.3 percent. He barely sacrificed any efficiency in the process, getting to the rim slightly more frequently while spending more time with the ball in his hands. In fact, Harden's time of possession (6.0 minutes per game) trailed only LeBron James among all non-point guards, according to SportVU tracking on NBA.com/Stats. Harden can make that work because he presents multiple threats to the defense with his ability to pull up off the dribble from 3-point range, the way he baits defenders to draw contact while finishing in the paint, and by setting up teammates.
The defensive end also was part of Harden's improvement. While his shortcomings at that end were overstated by YouTube clips of defensive lapses, Harden wasn't in good enough shape to put forth the effort needed to succeed on defense. That changed last season. Harden generally has been a good one-on-one defender throughout his career and was more attentive off the ball, though he still likes to gamble on shooting the gap for steals. ESPN's real plus-minus rated him an average defender for a shooting guard, a major upgrade from 2013-14.
Trevor Ariza
Position: Forward
Experience: 11 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Strong 3-and-D role player who can do a bit more than that label implies
+ Shooting predictably regressed after career year. More of a volume shooter than an accurate one
+ Rangy defender who can guard multiple positions, high steal rate for a wing stopper
Analysis
Ariza's second tour of duty in Houston went much better than his first, which ended after a single disappointing season. Ariza's perimeter defense was a key factor in the Rockets' makeover at that end, and he provided more than enough offense to play the second-most minutes on the team.
During the four seasons he spent in New Orleans and Washington, Ariza improved dramatically as a 3-point shooter. So while his accuracy predictably dropped from the career-high 40.7 percent he shot with the Wizards in 2013-14, Ariza was able to sustain average 3-point shooting (35 percent) over almost seven attempts per game, finishing seventh in the league in total 3-pointers. He can put the ball on the ground to attack overzealous closeouts and will run the occasional pick-and-roll, albeit with poor results.
Ariza was a big upgrade over the departed Chandler Parsons defensively, and finished in the top 10 among small forwards in defensive real plus-minus. At 6-foot-8 with long arms, he's quick enough to defend any of the perimeter spots as well as many power forwards in smaller lineups. That versatility gave Kevin McHale plenty of options with defensive matchups. As compared to most perimeter stoppers, Ariza is more of a factor in the passing lanes. His 1.9 steals per game ranked seventh in the NBA.
Terrence Jones
Position: Forward
Experience: 3 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Talented, multi-skilled forward whose development was slowed last season by injuries
+ Can play inside and out offensively, beats slower defenders with quickness, improved outside shooter
+ Made progress defensively, added strength to deal with bigger opponents
Analysis
Statistics don't reflect the progress Jones made during his third NBA season. That's partially because Jones missed 41 of the season's first 42 games with a tricky nerve contusion that healed slowly, as well as six more with a scary collapsed lung. It's also because Jones' biggest strides came in areas not captured by the traditional box score.
During 2013-14, Jones emerged as an effective offensive player at age 22. His best asset is his quickness, which Jones can use to face up slower defenders and beat them with a handful of dribbles. Jones also is good around the basket, where he finishes in traffic and has good accuracy with a lefty shot that's not exactly a hook. In time, he could become a stretch-4. Jones shot 35.1 percent from 3-point range, but on just 37 attempts, and he slumped to 15.8 percent in an even smaller playoff sample. If Jones can get to the point where post defenders have to close out hard to him, he can use his ballhandling and quickness to make plays off the dribble.
For all his gifts, Jones was nearly unplayable in the 2014 postseason because he couldn't defend LaMarcus Aldridge. He made tremendous strides defensively last season, adding strength to deal with bigger opponents while he was sidelined with injuries. Jones probably will always be prone to defensive lapses, and he's a poor defensive rebounder for a big man -- something that was especially problematic in the playoffs -- but he can at least stay on the floor now.
Dwight Howard
Position: Center
Experience: 11 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Star center dealt with injuries during pedestrian regular season, looked like himself again in playoffs
+ Probably no longer suited to be a No. 1 option on offense, better in pick-and-roll than post
+ Still an intimidating defensive presence in paint when healthy
Analysis
Injuries, most notably a pair to his right knee, cost Howard half the 2014-15 regular season. When he was on the court, Howard looked more Clark Kent than Superman. His averages of 19.0 points and 12.7 rebounds per game were his lowest since 2006-07. During the Rockets' run to the Western Conference finals, however, Howard reemerged as an interior force, leading the NBA with 14.0 rebounds per game. Whether Howard can keep it up for a full season will go a long way in determining where Houston finishes in the West.
At this point, Howard's days as his team's leading scorer are probably over. With Harden as the focal point of the Rockets' offense, Howard's usage rate declined from 24.0 percent of the team's plays to 23.3 percent and again to 21.2 percent in the playoffs. And that's OK. Howard's never been as good a post scorer as he believes, shooting just 43.5 percent on post-up plays last season according to Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com/Stats. He's dominant when set up by a teammate out of the pick-and-roll or as a cutter. His 73.1 percent shooting as a roll man ranked third in the NBA. Howard made 52.8 percent of his free throws during the regular season, but his confidence appeared to suffer in the playoffs as teams repeatedly used the Hack-a-Shaq against Houston, and he made just 41.2 percent of his postseason foul shots.
The biggest difference in playoff Howard was at the defensive end. His block rates have declined since he underwent back surgery in 2012, and his rate during the regular season (3.4 percent of opponents' 2-point attempts) was actually worse than the average center (3.5 percent). That jumped to 5.4 percent in the playoffs. Even when he isn't blocking shots, Howard is still an obstacle in the paint, ranking 10th in opponent shooting percentage at the rim during the regular season, according to SportVU tracking. And his dominant defensive rebounding allows the Rockets to get away with weaker rebounders at power forward with no ill effect.
Reserves
Patrick Beverley
Position: Guard
Experience: 3 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Energetic, dogged defender whose all-out style may be responsible for his injury woes
+ Non-distributor whose weaknesses are covered well by Harden's presence, average shooter
+ One of the league's best defenders at point guard, frustrates opponents
Analysis
Beverley's third NBA season was his worst, in part because of hamstring and wrist injuries that cost him 26 games. Surgeries on Beverley's wrist ruled him out for the postseason. Such nagging conditions might be the price of Beverley's physical style; he also missed 26 games in 2013-14, his first season as a starter. As a result, a more limited role with the arrival of Lawson might help keep Beverley on the court.
While Beverley figures to move to the bench with Lawson's arrival, it still makes sense for Houston to play him with Harden as much as possible. More than 87 percent of his minutes came alongside Harden last season, per NBA.com/Stats. Beverley, who averaged just 4.0 assists per 36 minutes last season, isn't really a traditional point guard, and playing with Harden -- or Lawson -- allows him to function as a shooting guard on offense. Beverley isn't a great shooter, either, having shot 36.1 percent for his career on NBA 3-pointers, but that's a good enough mark to make defenses pay for leaving him open.
The Rockets want Beverley on the court for his defense. He's one of the league's quickest players and has a bulldog mentality defensively, getting in the jersey of opposing point guards and pressuring them for 94 feet. Yes, Houston was better defensively with Beverley on the bench last season, but that probably was more of a fluke than an indication of his decline. Still, concerns about Beverley's durability were one reason he could do no better than a four-year, $23 million deal ($18 million guaranteed, per Eric Pincus of BasketballInsiders.com) with the Rockets as a restricted free agent.
Corey Brewer
Position: Forward
Experience: 8 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Sprinter in an NBA player's body whose athleticism is shackled in a half-court offense and freed in transition
+ Poor 3-point shooter whose volume of attempts can lead to occasional big games
+ Active defender capable of guarding a variety of positions and wreaking havoc in passing lanes
Analysis
Brewer found an ideal situation for his skills after joining Houston in a December trade from the Minnesota Timberwolves. When Josh Smith joined the Rockets shortly thereafter, the two players teamed up to define the style of a long, quick second unit that used transition opportunities to compensate for its limited outside shooting. Brewer became a core piece and re-signed on a three-year, $23 million deal after opting out of his contract.
At first glance, Brewer seems like a poor fit for a team that values efficient shot selection. He shot 26.8 percent beyond the arc last season (28.4 percent in Houston), worst in the NBA among players with at least 200 3-point attempts. Brewer shoots enough 3s that eventually he's bound to make a few of them, as the Los Angeles Clippers found out the hard way in the Rockets' Game 6 comeback. But he still averaged just 0.72 points per half-court play in Houston, according to Synergy Sports tracking. That improves to 1.28 PPP (points per play) in transition, where Brewer ranked sixth in the NBA with 402 points. The five players ahead of him were all All-Stars, including teammate Harden. Brewer is on their level in the open court because he has a single-minded devotion to outracing slower defenders up the court as soon as his team secures the ball.
The Rockets' bench group was equally frantic defensively, using its length and athleticism to switch pick-and-rolls and trap ball handlers, compensating for a lack of size. That's the style Brewer was born to play.
Donatas Motiejunas
Position: Forward
Experience: 3 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Emerged as crafty post scorer during breakthrough third NBA season
+ Can make hook shots with either post around the basket, and is a capable 3-point shooter
+ Plays both frontcourt positions, held his own as team's primary rim protector
Analysis
After playing fewer than 1,500 minutes combined in his first two seasons in Houston, Motiejunas made some noise about his role. Last season, injuries to Jones and Howard opened the door for Motiejunas to start 62 games and prove he's an NBA-caliber big man. Alas, the last Rockets frontcourt injury was to Motiejunas, who underwent season-ending back surgery just before the playoffs.He still wasn't back running by the start of training camp, which could put his availability for the beginning of the regular season in jeopardy.
Among players with at least 100 shots on post-ups, according to Synergy Sports tracking, Motiejunas' 53.4 percent shooting in the post was the league's best. Motiejunas can shoot hooks with either hand, and while his footwork in the post looks awkward at times, that actually works to his benefit because he stays on balance while defenders get out of position. On top of his post skills, Motiejunas realized his potential as an outside shooter in 2014-15, making 36.8 percent of his 3-point attempts. Given that combo, it's hard to believe Motiejunas had a true shooting percentage (.553) only somewhat better than league average (.534). Part of the problem is even the best post scorers aren't as efficient as other players. Motiejunas also generates relatively few free throw attempts, costing him easy opportunities.
Due to the injuries, Motiejunas started at both frontcourt positions. The team was far more effective with him at power forward, in part because he got to play with Howard. Houston allowed just 95.8 points per 100 possessions with both players on the court, per NBA.com/Stats -- a mark that would have led the league -- as compared to 102.9 when Motiejunas played without Howard. Motiejunas is a poor shot blocker for a center, so it's not surprising the Rockets were more effective defensively when he played with one.
Jason Terry
Position: Guard
Experience: 16 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Former Sixth Man Award winner resurrected career in Houston, starting at point guard in playoffs
+ Largely delegated playmaking duties, remains a dangerous spot-up shooter
+ Proved surprisingly capable defensively at point guard
Analysis
Having played just 570 minutes of below-replacement basketball in 2013-14, Terry appeared headed for retirement. An offseason trade to Houston gave the veteran combo guard new life, starting all 17 Rockets playoff games in place of the injured Beverley. Terry, who turned 38 in September, chose to return on a one-year contract for the veterans minimum over a similar offer from the New Orleans Pelicans and will probably play more shooting guard with the arrival of Lawson.
Harden's ability to run the offense allowed Terry to succeed playing point guard primarily for the first time in nearly a decade. Despite that role, Terry's assist rate (3.2 per 36 minutes) actually was the lowest of his career. He spent most of his time spotting up and led Houston with 39.0 percent 3-point shooting on more than seven attempts per 36 minutes. In hindsight, Terry's abrupt sharp decline to 32.7 percent accuracy inside the arc in 2013-14 probably was a fluke. He rebounded to 50.4 percent last season.
The most pleasant surprise of Terry's season was how well he held up defensively at point guard. In fact, the Rockets actually were better defensively with Terry on the court than defensive stalwart Beverley, though that probably reflects the lineups they played with and noise. Still, Terry did a credible job defending Chris Paul in the playoffs before struggling to track Stephen Curry off the ball in the Western Conference finals.
Clint Capela
Position: Center
Experience: 1 year
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Athletic center who excels in pick-and-roll game
+ Excellent finisher, had historic issues with confidence at free throw line
+ Active defender, aggressive shot-blocker in the paint and quick enough to stay with smaller players
Analysis
Ah, Capela! It was only fitting that Swiss center Capela broke out on a national stage during the playoffs in between commercials for "Pitch Perfect 2." The rookie, who turned 21 in May, spent most of the regular season in the D-League before emerging as Howard's backup in the postseason. Capela's translated European statistics suggested he would be a steal at the 25th pick, and during the playoffs those skills showed up in a big way.
By virtue of above-the-rim finishes, Capela shot 67.7 percent from the field against playoff competition. He's a natural pick-and-roll player who transitions well from screening to diving to the basket. Capela can catch the ball on the move and knows what to do with the ball when he gets it. Of his 21 field goals in the playoffs, 11 were dunks. He can also create his own opportunities on the offensive glass. Capela struggles away from the basket, and must overcome self-doubt at the free throw line. Despite making almost 60 percent of his free throws in the D-League, a nervous Capela missed the first 15 he tried in NBA games, leading opponents to intentionally foul him. He was better in the playoffs, shooting 51.7 percent from the stripe.
While Capela isn't quite as instinctive on defense, his size and athleticism give him great potential at that end. He's already a good shot-blocker, swatting 2.6 shots per 36 minutes in the postseason without sacrificing his responsibilities as a defensive rebounder. And Capela is quick enough to hold his own on the perimeter after switches. His improvement will come with better positioning and the discretion to avoid fouls; he averaged 5.4 of those per 36 minutes in the playoffs.
Marcus Thornton
Position: Guard
Experience: 6 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Well-traveled bench scorer who's finally off exorbitant contract and now making the veterans minimum
+ Value tied in large part to his 3-point percentage, volume scorer inside the arc
+ Weak defense makes it difficult to keep him on the floor for extended minutes
Analysis
Over the past two seasons, Thornton played for four teams in large part because of his high salary for a reserve. The four-year, $31 million deal Thornton signed following the lockout expired after the 2014-15 season, and Thornton will be a better value in Houston after signing a one-year deal for the veterans minimum.
Thornton always has been able to put points on the board in a hurry, and he averaged 19.0 points per 36 minutes last season. Whether Thornton scores those points efficiently depends on his 3-point shooting. The last four seasons of his contract have seen him alternate between shooting 34.5 percent and somewhere between 37-38 percent, a big difference given more than 40 percent of his attempts have been 3s. Thornton has a quick release and can shoot the 3 off-balance, but he's no longer particularly effective creating his own shot off the dribble.
The issue for Thornton always has been defense. He's a smaller 2-guard and has never committed to the defensive end of the court. The Rockets can minimize Thornton's weaknesses by playing him next to Brewer and Beverley.
K.J. McDaniels
Position: Forward
Experience: 1 year
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Long, athletic wing player who contributed immediately on defense but must improve on offense
+ Rode early hot streak beyond the arc, but struggled after shooting regressed to mean
+ Outstanding shot-blocker from the perimeter and has potential to become a stopper
Analysis
Few second-round picks have gotten as much attention as McDaniels. Drafted 32nd overall, McDaniels rejected the Philadelphia 76ers' offer of a four-year contract near the minimum salary (aka "the Hinkie Special") in favor of taking the one-year tender teams are required to offer and setting himself up to hit free agency. After a strong start, McDaniels cooled off and got traded to Houston at the deadline for point guard Isaiah Canaan. He played just 33 minutes for the Rockets before fracturing his wrist in the season finale, ruling him out for the playoffs. Still, McDaniels earned a three-year, $10 million deal as a restricted free agent, winning his bet on himself.
To contribute to a good team, McDaniels will have to develop his offense. He's got the tools to be more than just a 3-and-D specialist, but at this point he doesn't do anything well except score in transition. McDaniels shot 40.4 percent from 3-point range in October and November, raising hopes, but that was out of line with his college performance (31.3 percent from the college line). Predictably, it was a mirage. McDaniels made just 24 percent of his 3s between then and the trade deadline, leaving him with a true shooting percentage (.494) below the Antoine Walker Line.
McDaniels offered more immediate returns on defense. A wingspan of 6-foot-11¼ allows the 6-6 McDaniels to defend bigger opponents, and the combination of that and his impressive vertical makes McDaniels a shot-blocking presence. His block rate (4.2 percent) was actually better than Howard's (3.4 percent) during the 2014-15 regular season, and by a wide margin the best for any player his height or smaller. McDaniels still must remember to let his arms do the work and stay down on defense, but in time he's got the tools to develop into a perimeter stopper.
Montrezl Harrell
Position: Forward
Experience: Rookie
2015 draft profile
Scouting report
+ Athletic, energetic big man who slipped to the second round of the draft
+ Dangerous offensively above the rim, but may struggle against NBA length
+ Must play hard on a more consistent basis to maximize his defensive potential
Analysis
Considered a likely first-round pick when he left Louisville after his junior season, Harrell instead fell to the 35th pick, where Houston snapped him up. Harrell got a fully guaranteed three-year contract for just over $3 million.
During the draft process, Harrell benefited from comparisons to Denver Nuggets forward Kenneth Faried. (Growing out his hair to look like Faried's didn't hurt.) Like Faried, Harrell is undersized for an NBA power forward but compensates with athleticism and long arms -- his wingspan was measured at more than 7-foot-4 at the NBA draft combine. The difference is that Faried played hard all the time in college, racking up impressive rebound, steal and block rates. Harrell was actually a below-average defensive rebounder for an NBA-bound power forward, and his steal and block numbers ranked in the middle of the pack.
Harrell's size might be more of an issue on offense, where he can have a tough time dealing with shot blockers. He was willing to step out to the perimeter in college, and showed some court vision in the high post, but is an inaccurate shooter who made just 53.3 percent of his free throws at Louisville. Harrell will fit in well with the Rockets' up-tempo second unit, as he can outrun his opponent and finish above the rim. He also figures to create second chances, having averaged 4.8 offensive rebounds per game at the NBA Summer League in Las Vegas.
Sam Dekker
Position: Forward
Experience: Rookie
2015 draft profile
Scouting report
+ High-percentage finisher with creative in-between game, sure-handed with ball
+ Below average outside shooter who caught fire in NCAA tournament
+ Has good size for a wing and might eventually become a capable stretch-4 option
Analysis
A strong freshman season put Dekker on the map for draft analysts, but Dekker never quite took the next step at Wisconsin until the 2015 NCAA tournament. An uncharacteristic hot streak from downtown (Dekker shot 15-of-30 from 3 in the first five tournament games) helped the Badgers to the final, where he looked down and realized he had run off the cliff a long time ago.
Dekker missed all six of his 3-point attempts in the final, several badly, as Wisconsin lost to Duke. Still, Dekker declared for the draft and was taken 18th by the Rockets.
The funny thing about Dekker's NCAA tournament is outside shooting probably is the weakest element of his game. Dekker was a career 34.8 percent shooter from the college line, and had shot 30.4 percent last season before March Madness. His efficiency is derived instead from high-percentage 2-point shooting. Dekker can make plays with the ball in his hands, and his 6-foot-9 size allows him to finish in traffic. Dekker's efficiency also is boosted by his turnover-free play; he had just 36 all season in 1,239 minutes.
Dekker will have to demonstrate he has the lateral footspeed to stay with NBA wing players. His size can be an asset on defense, however, and eventually it's possible that Dekker's best position will be as an undersized power forward. To play extended minutes there, Dekker will have to be a more consistent presence on the defensive glass.