East No. 1 | East No. 3 | Full List
No. 2: Chicago Bulls
Last Season: 50-32
3rd place in East; Lost 4-2 to Cleveland in Round 2
Just two NBA franchises own more championship banners than Chicago's six titles. But unlike the Celtics and Lakers in front of them, the Bulls' success can be traced entirely to one period of time dominated by one player: the 1990s and Michael Jordan. The rest of Chicago's NBA history has been marked by near misses -- very good teams blocked by great opponents. It's a pattern the current Bulls might replicate.
Before Jordan, the only contending Bulls teams were the rugged Dick Motta-led squads of the 1970s, but the path in the Western Conference back then was blocked by the likes of Wilt Chamberlain, Jerry West, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Rick Barry. After Jordan, the Bulls didn't contend again until Tom Thibodeau arrived in 2010. For all his success, especially on the defensive end, Thibs' teams were ultimately undermined by injuries and blocked in the East by LeBron James.
Now, in a last-ditch effort to get past James with the current core roster, Bulls decision-makers Gar Forman and John Paxson have replaced Thibodeau with the offensive-minded and ever-affable college coach Fred Hoiberg. Hoiberg inherits a team that returns a league-high 98.8 percent of its minutes from last season, so in a very real way the onus is on him to get Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler & Co. over the top. Will the shift in philosophy pay off in a 1990s-style breakthrough, or will the window slam shut for this version of the Bulls, leaving them beside their 1970s brethren in the halls of what-could-have-been?
The Bulls' evolution to a more offense-focused team began last season. With Rose expected back healthy and cap space to burn, the Bulls recovered from the unsuccessful pursuit of Carmelo Anthony to sign Pau Gasol and entice draft stash Nikola Mirotic to finally move stateside. The additions gave Chicago arguably the league's deepest frontcourt and added offensive counterparts to Thibodeau favorites Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson. As the season wore on, it became clear that Noah and Gibson were hobbled, and they ultimately they missed a combined 35 games. With Gasol playing heavy minutes, the Bulls rose 18 spots on offense from 2013-14 (to 10th), but fell nine spots on defense (to 11th).
While Bulls management focused its efforts at overhauling the frontcourt, their backcourt saw a stunning changing of the guard. Rose was hurt again, and was only a tentative version of his pre-injury self during many of the 51 games he played. Rose became more 3 oriented, with poor effect, and often waited until crunch time to go on the attack. The bottom line was a player whose metrics were those of a mid-level starter, both in the regular season and the playoffs.
Rose's uneven season did not leave Chicago devoid of an All-Star guards thanks to the surprising development of Butler. After establishing himself as a defensive standout and complementary offensive piece during his first three pro seasons, Butler reinvented both his body and his skill set. He was quicker, more explosive and stronger. More impressively, he morphed from a limited scorer who ran the floor and attacked the paint into a full-service shot maker. Butler finished 16th in WARP, more than doubling his 2013-14 total, and earned a max contract as a restricted free agent. Butler played so well that it is a legitimate question to ask just who the franchise player is in Chicago.
Mirotic lived up to his advance billing, though fellow rookie Doug McDermott did not. Mirotic led all rookies in WARP, but he didn't play enough minutes to beat Minnesota's Andrew Wiggins in the Rookie of the Year voting. McDermott was injured and looked out of sorts when he did play in what was largely a lost season. Both rookies failed to win the full confidence of Thibodeau on the defensive end, which became a problem in the playoffs.
Chicago ran into its ceiling during its second-round loss to Cleveland. The Bulls missed a chance to go up 3-1 on an injury battered squad when James won Game 4 with a buzzer beater. The Cavs mostly rolled after that in what turned out to be Thibodeau's final games. Rumors of his departure dogged the Bulls for much of the season, and though none of Thibs' players spoke out against him, when the ax finally fell, everybody -- Thibodeau included -- seemed relieved.
When the offseason began, the Bulls didn't waste much time in convincing Hoiberg to leave Iowa State. With the coaching situation settled, the Bulls drafted promising Arkansas big man Bobby Portis and then set about securing the entirety of Thibodeau's last roster. A cynic might say if there was anything to the rumored battle of wills between Thibodeau and his bosses, finding a coach who could go farther with the same roster would be a nice gotcha moment for the team brass. In reality, Chicago was changing the only major piece it could change given the Bulls' lack of financial flexibility.
In Hoiberg, the Bulls have brought in a coach with very different ideas. It's those ideas, along with some overdue injury luck, that will determine how far this season's team goes. Make no mistake, the Bulls are in win-now mode. Noah's contract is up after the season, while Gasol can opt out. Rose's ill-fated deal expires in the summer of 2017. So does Gibson's. With Cleveland's core locked down for the long haul, this is it. If the Bulls can't fly past the Cavs on the wings of a new approach, Chicago might be forced to regroup and rebuild around Butler and Mirotic.
Hoiberg is an avid proponent of early offense, floor spacing and efficient shot selection. His eyes don't glaze over at the mention of things like plus-minus or effective field-goal percentage. In other words, he's a 21st century coach schooled in the ways of the Mike D'Antoni Suns, the Gregg Popovich Spurs, the Erik Spoelstra Heat and the Steve Kerr Warriors. But there are a lot of teams looking to go that route, and Hoiberg is tasked with standing out while implementing his system to an entire roster accustomed to playing a very different style of hoops. It's easy to argue that no coach faces a greater challenge in the coming season.
The Chicago Bulls come into this season looking a lot like the team that lost to LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers in last spring's playoffs.
"We have the same team, literally, as last year," Butler said during Team USA's minicamp in August. "Except for the addition of [draft pick] Bobby Portis. But we say it every year, we're confident, we think that we can win a championship, yada, yada, yada. [Fans and media] have heard it all before. But we definitely have to go out there and do it. It's time to stop talking and actually be about it. I think that we can, but we got to go out and make it happen."
So what makes this new Bulls squad any different?
After five successful seasons, the front office fired Thibodeau and brought in Hoiberg. The hope within the organization is that the Bulls made one of the biggest additions in the entire offseason without changing their on-court personnel. The optimism stems from the feeling that Hoiberg will be able to generate more offensive freedom than Thibodeau did during his tenure.
With Rose, Gasol, Noah, Duleavy and Butler all coming back for another year together, the Bulls can only hope that Hoiberg has the same impact that Kerr did in his first season with the Golden State Warriors last year. But in order for the Bulls to take that next step, Hoiberg will have to figure out what Thibodeau, and much of the league has struggled with over the years -- finding a way to get past James in the playoffs. -- Nick Friedell
Projected Real Plus-Minus for starters
Derrick Rose, PG: -0.6
Jimmy Butler, SG: +4.3
Mike Dunleavy, SF: +2.7
Nikola Mirotic, PF: +3.1
Pau Gasol, C: +0.5
Scouting reports on every player on the Bulls
Using shot data from 2014-15 and projected starters, Grantland's Kirk Goldsberry ranks each team's offensive efficiency based on square footage.
Gasol, showing his age (35), took more than 52 percent of his shots from 8 feet in last season but hit just 54.2 percent of them, a below-average rate.
Though the Bulls project at just 34.6 percent from 3 (18th), Butler is an assassin from the left corner, where he hits almost 55 percent.
All about the space: 9th (436 sq. ft. of above-average offense)
To identify players who stretch offenses the most, ESPN Stats & Information created the Kyle Korver effect -- a metric on a 1-100 scale, factoring in 3-point percentage, 3-point attempt rate (percentage of total shots that come from 3-point range) and influence on teammate FG percentage.
Korver effect: The 35-year-old Dunleavy (87.6) is one of just three Bulls projected to be above average from 3 in 2015-16.
We're not likely to get any concrete answers on how the Bulls adapt to Hoiberg, and vice versa, until well into the season. Hoiberg is a people person and coming off the respected but hard-boiled Thibodeau, it has been immediately apparent that the club views the coaching switch as a breath of fresh air. That's a good start, but it won't mean much if it doesn't translate to on-court success.
At the bottom line, Hoiberg is tasked with upgrading what was already a top-10 offense while getting the Bulls back into the elite ranks on the defensive end. While Hoiberg made his bones at Iowa State with sterling offensive efficiency, the Cyclones' generally lackluster defensive performance isn't a great sign. At the same time, Hoiberg might well have been coaching to the strength of the talent he was able to recruit to Ames. You won't be able to say the same thing about his time in Chicago, simply because many of the players he inherits have been a part of what was the league's best defensive team over the last half decade. During preseason, which is far from definitive, the Bulls were one of the five worst defensive teams in the league. It'll be up to Hoiberg and defensive assistant Jim Boylen to make sure that doesn't bleed into the regular season.
Hoiberg's challenge was complicated in the preseason by the back injury suffered by Dunleavy and the uncertainty over how mobile the veteran sharpshooter will be when he returns. Then Rose was hurt again, this time going down with a fractured orbital bone thanks to an inadvertent practice elbow thrown by Gibson. Rose should be ready at or near the start of the season, but he missed a chance to mesh with Hoiberg's new system during exhibition play. When he gets on the court, Rose is expected to spearhead the quicker attack in which he can push the pace and attack more freely amid the improved spacing.
But Hoiberg has to figure out his frontcourt rotation. You can make a case for any combination of the Bulls' top four bigs, and Portis played so well over the summer and in the preseason that some fans have screamed for a trade of Gibson or Noah. Hoiberg also has to manage the possible alpha battle between Rose and Butler. Whose team is it? Does it have to be anyone's? These aren't easy questions for a first-year coach to answer under the spotlight of the Chicago media.
The challenges aside, Hoiberg is universally hailed as an offensive mastermind. And the Bulls' defensive habits -- you would think -- have been thoroughly ingrained after five seasons under Thibodeau. If Chicago gets some good luck on the injury front, the Bulls are probably the team most likely to challenge Cleveland in the East. But there is a lot of age here, plenty of potential points of conflict and a number of unusually high injury risks. The range of possibility is wide. Chicago could be in the Finals, or it could go down in the first round. If that happens, the Bulls could be on the way to yet another rebuild.
East No. 1 | East No. 3 | Full List
