Here are our player scouting reports for the Chicago Bulls.
Projected starters
Derrick Rose
Position: Guard
Experience: 6 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Athletic, basket-attacking scorer
+ Average playmaking skills for position
+ After string of injuries, has become over-reliant on inconsistent jump shot
Analysis
There may be no harder player to evaluate in the NBA right now than Derrick Rose. Because of the on-again, off-again nature of his post-MVP career, it's hard to separate what Rose was from what he is and what he might have been. If those questions are so hard to answer, how sure can we be predicting what he's going to be? All the injuries didn't just potentially rob Rose of at least some of his once-otherworldly athleticism, they also robbed him of much-needed developmental time. Because while he won the MVP vote in 2010-11 as the best player on the league's best regular-season team, he was not a finished product.
Now, he may never be truly finished, and that was true even before the fractured orbital bone Rose suffered on the first day of training camp. This latest injury required surgery but did not immediately rule out his availability for opening night. Still, the latest misfortune kept Rose from testing Fred Hoiberg's new offense during preseason. Hoiberg's system is expected to be well suited for Rose's considerable gifts, but he's got to be on the floor.
The Rose we saw last season was a good player, but he wasn't the same guy as before the first major knee injury. How could he be after missing 208 games since 2012? In practical terms, that meant Rose was more jump-shot oriented than before, which isn't exactly ideal. Rose appeared to save himself for crunch time: In clutch situations, Rose's shots per 36 minutes ballooned to 24.8, but he shot just 30 percent. More often than not, the Bulls were better off with Rose forgoing an attempt to take over or ceding the responsibility to Jimmy Butler. The overall portion of his shots that came at the rim were a career low, while his frequency of 3-point attempts was a career high. He shot 28 percent from deep.
Hoiberg's approach will be to space and flatten the floor for Rose in the half court while giving him more chances to operate in transition. Rose should be allowed to attack -- assuming he's not hellbent on saving himself for crunch time, free agency or whatever -- and his reads will be less complex. Which is good, because Rose's per-pass metrics are only a little better than average and worse than that for his position. Rose's defense was poor last season. At his best, he's a tough on-ball defender quick enough to stick with most opponents and strong enough to be physical in the paint.
Jimmy Butler
Position: Guard
Experience: 4 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Improved jump shooter and overall shot maker
+ Physical, athletic wing who is good in paint
+ Top-flight perimeter defender with occasional tendency to try and do too much
Analysis
Before last season, Jimmy Butler had carved out a deserved reputation as one of the top role players in the league. After a stunning breakout, Butler is now simply one of the best players in the league period. He has gone from being an ideal complement to Derrick Rose to overshadowing the former MVP in his own backcourt. Make no mistake about it: What Butler did last season is incredibly difficult. He transmogrified from a defense-first wing with solid offensive skills limited to a low-volume arsenal of open jumpers and attacks off the dribble, to a full-service 2-guard and top-flight shot maker. The timing couldn't have been better, as Butler hit restricted free agency over the summer and cashed in with a five-year, $92.3 million contract to remain in Chicago.
To put numbers to all this superlative blathering, Butler's 2013-14 season put him in the top 15 to 20 percent of the league in both WARP and RPM. Not bad at all for a role player who posted a usage rate of 17 percent. And his level of play seemed established. Not only was it Butler's third year in the NBA, but he was a four-year player at Marquette as well. How much growth could be realistically expected? And why did it matter when he was so good already? Turns out, it mattered a lot, as Butler shot to the 97th percentile in WARP and the 95th in RPM.
Butler's usage rate shot up to 21.6 percent even while his true shooting percentage rose from the 49th percentile to the 87th. His in-between game improved, as did his accuracy on 3-pointers. He made these upgrades without sacrificing his offensive peg: the ability to attack and finish off the dribble, and get to the foul line. Butler's passing indicators were steady, and with the ball in his hands more, his assist rate went up. And his turnover rate was elite, dropping to 7.7 percent of his possessions last season (93rd percentile). Butler's defensive metrics were down a little, perhaps due to the additional offensive responsibility. But he was still Tom Thibodeau's go-to perimeter defender and is as good as they come. He's athletic, strong, smart and gives full effort.
Mike Dunleavy
Position: Forward
Experience: 13 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Knock-down, face-up shooter and floor spacer
+ Solid passer with good court vision
+ Declining athleticism but willing to sacrifice body on defensive end
Analysis
Mike Dunleavy's narrative did a belly flop just before training camp opened when the Bulls announced he would undergo surgery for a balky back and would be out at least eight to 10 weeks. Then as Dunleavy hobbled around gingerly on media day, he sounded like a guy just hoping to get back this season at all. Dunleavy was a crucial part of the Bulls' success a year ago, a fact that did not go unnoticed by analytically friendly Bulls coach Fred Hoiberg. Chicago was 5.4 points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor, and the credit for that number -- second to Nikola Mirotic on the Bulls -- was spread across both ends of the floor.
Still, Dunleavy is in his mid-30s, has 13 NBA years under his belt and played the past two seasons for Tom Thibodeau. A lot of the defensive impact hinted at in his on/off numbers stems from charge drawing rates annually in the top 10 percent of the league. The back problem may not have been inevitable, nor is it surprising. Chicago needs Dunleavy to get right as unproven Tony Snell and Doug McDermott are the contingencies on the depth chart.
Dunleavy's play-by-play impact was undermined to an extent by declining box score numbers. He's still a floor stretcher of the highest order. He rated in the top 20 percent of the league in every zone outside the paint and that was a good thing, because he increasingly struggles to finish around the hoop. Dunleavy still has value-added qualities as an average-ish playmaker and defensive rebounder. Increasingly, however, he's becoming a shooting specialist with the length to disrupt opposing shooters and the moxie to take a hit if they put the ball on floor. The Bulls need him.
Pau Gasol
Position: Forward
Experience: 14 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Versatile offensive center with low-block skills and plus face-up game
+ Skilled passer
+ Increasingly immobile on defense but still protects the basket well
Analysis
Some wrote off Pau Gasol after he struggled through his last couple of seasons with the Lakers, but he bounced back in a big way in his first Chicago season, earning All-NBA honors for the fourth time in his 14 seasons. The voter acclaim was warranted: Gasol jumped from 82nd to ninth in WARP, and his single-season RPM moved from minus-1.14 to plus-2.30. For much of the season, it wasn't all milk and honey for Gasol, as his teammates struggled to play off him at times. For the regular season, Chicago was plus-3.0 points per 100 possessions with Gasol on the floor. When he wasn't on the floor, the Bulls were plus-3.9, per research from NBA.com/stats.
As for his own production, it was pretty much vintage Gasol, who went from 1,883 minutes in his last L.A. campaign to 2,681 under Tom Thibodeau in Chicago. Gasol was more of a finisher than a playmaker but excelled in the role. He hit 45 percent from midrange and even hit 11-of-21 on corner 3s. His efficiency around the hoop was a little off as Thibodeau too often dumped the ball into Gasol and asked him to go in isolation with no good outlet. But his true shooting percentage leaped to .559. Gasol's rebounding percentages and averages were up as well, though his actual impact in that area is debatable. His per-opportunity success on the glass is good, not great. And Chicago's rebound rate was 1.3 percent better with Gasol off the floor.
Gasol's ability to play a European face-up game in addition to a traditional low-post role should play well in the system of new coach Fred Hoiberg. Unfortunately, Gasol's declining defense will further muddle what is already a complicated frontcourt depth chart. Gasol's defensive RPM continues to creep toward the league median, though he didn't look as lost on that end last season as he did in his final Lakers campaign. He can still block shots and his rim-protect metrics were better last season. But Gasol is increasingly helpless as a pick-and-roll defender in space and when teams isolate him against a mobile scorer.
Joakim Noah
Position: Center
Experience: 8 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Elite rebounder and rim protector when healthy
+ Versatile, mobile defender in the middle
+ Limited scoring arsenal but gifted high-post passer
Analysis
Last year, Joakim Noah looked like a player in decline. Now, entering a contract year, he finds himself in a precarious situation. The hope for Noah, and the Bulls, is that his drop-off in 2014-15 was entirely due to ongoing knee trouble. He declared himself fit late in the summer, when all players declare themselves fit, but he has got a lot on the line in the coming season and right now. It's hard to say how much of his drop last year was the injuries and how much was a marginalized role playing next to Pau Gasol. Some of Noah's core skill set remained intact. His passing was as productive as ever, though his turnovers ticked up a bit. His rebounding was also still among the elite on both ends even if his raw number of opportunities were down a bit because of Gasol.
Noah's trouble can be pinpointed in his shooting indicators. Never a scorer, he had taken on a larger role in 2013-14 when he made the All-NBA first team at center. That his usage plummeted 5.2 percent with Gasol on board and Derrick Rose back was no surprise. But Noah's 49-point drop in true shooting percentage was shocking, and by the postseason, he had lost confidence in his offensive game. The bright side is there is plenty of reason to hope for a bounce back -- if Noah is healthy. He shot just 49.7 percent at the rim a year ago, putting him in the bottom 10 percent of the league. He has always been a player who gets a lot of shots blocked, but that's extreme and hopefully a byproduct of the knee limiting his explosiveness.
Noah's single-season defensive RPM was down 1.84 points last season, as his block rate declined along with his rim-protection metrics. Again, hopefully that was the injury. He played as hard as ever and remains the heart of the Bulls on and off the court. Still, as new Chicago coach Fred Hoiberg toys with different lineup combinations among his deep group of big men, there is no guarantee Noah will remain a starter. He's not likely to complain, and when he gets on the floor, he'll play as hard as anyone. In past years, you might worry a drop in minutes could impact his value in the free-agent market. But with the spiking salary cap, Noah should come out just fine. The rising cap might even allow the Bulls to keep him beyond the coming season. As always with Noah, it's probably going to come down to his health.
Reserves
Taj Gibson
Position: Forward
Experience: 6 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Elite versatility and mobility on defense
+ Top-flight rim protector
+ Good offensive rebounder and efficient scorer when shot selection is monitored
Analysis
Taj Gibson didn't look right at the end of last season. After ratcheting his game up during the 2014 playoffs, his postseason performance last spring was a sharp drop from his regular-season play. Turns out he was playing hurt on a torn ligament in his ankle and underwent surgery after the season. Gibson likely played nearly all of last season hurt, but in reality, his regular-season metrics were right in line with the previous couple of years. Gibson is what he is: A tremendously valuable reserve and one of the top backup bigs in the league. While Gibson's WARP was right in line with past seasons (~70th percentile), his RPM took a tumble, from plus-1.03 in 2013-14 to minus-1.33 last season, and his athletic indicators were down across the board. That's probably the ankle showing up on the stat lines, but it is worth remembering that although Gibson has just six years of NBA experience, he turned 30 over the summer.
Gibson seemed on the verge of an offensive breakout when he averaged over 18 points during the 2014 postseason, but last year most of his drop can be traced to that end. His touches were down considerably and his usage rate fell from 23.2 to 17.6 percent. When a player's volume is turned down, you like to see his efficiency go up, and for Gibson it did. His true shooting percentage went up 21 points. With Pau Gasol and Nikola Mirotic around to serve as face-up bigs, Gibson's overrated midrange jumper was called upon much less often, and his percentage on those looks improved. That was enough to prop up his WARP. As always, Gibson's defensive metrics were good. His RPM on defense dipped but was still in the league's upper third. His block rate was a plus, and his metrics against shooters at the rim, and overall, were in the league's top 10 percent, per SportVu. Gibson is an underrated rebounder, as his abilities are often masked playing next to prolific defensive rebounders. According to reports from SportVu, Gibson ranked in the 98th percentile in winning contested rebounds in 2014-15.
Nikola Mirotic
Position: Forward
Experience: 1 year
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Premier floor-spacing threat despite inconsistent long-range stroke as a rookie
+ Potential to be one of top foul-drawers in the league
+ Uses length well on defense but needs to improve footwork in space
Analysis
Bulls fans had been hearing the name Nikola Mirotic for years ever since he was nabbed with the 23rd pick in 2011. He finally arrived in Chicago last fall and did not disappoint. Mirotic took a while to win the full confidence of defense-obsessed Tom Thibodeau, and as well as he played down the stretch of the regular season, Mirotic languished during the playoffs, getting just 15 minutes per game behind Chicago's veteran frontcourt stalwarts. This happened even though Mirotic had posted the best on/off numbers on the team. That probably won't happen again, especially under new coach Fred Hoiberg, who pays attention to plus-minus indicators and whose system requires a player of Mirotic's talents. After the way Mirotic played this summer at EuroBasket in his first stint with the Spanish national team, he seems poised for a patented second-year breakout.
As advertised, Mirotic turned out to be much more than a spot-up shooting specialist at the 4. His overall arsenal is diverse enough that he played about a fifth of his minutes at 3, per 82games.com, though it's not an ideal defensive fit for him. Mirotic shot just 31.6 percent from deep last season, well below what he's likely to do going forward. Still, he was such a threat that teams were loath to leave him unguarded and that floor-spacing threat was a big reason why his offensive RPM (plus-1.75) was in the top 11 percent of the league. Mirotic showed average passing indicators as a rookie, which is a good starting point. But the real revelation in his game was his ability to draw fouls when he got into the lane as well as out on the perimeter, thanks to his crafty set of ball and head fakes. He drew seven fouls per 100 possessions, ranking in the 93rd percentile. Mirotic shot 80 percent from the line so despite his so-so deep shooting, he still managed a sterling .556 true shooting percentage on a 22.8 percentage usage rate with few turnovers. If he improves his 3-point percentage to even league average, Mirotic would become one of the most efficient scorers in the league at his level of usage. And he's capable of doing much better than league average.
Though Mirotic's defensive reputation is lacking, his RPM as a rookie there was plus-1.75. He drew a lot of charges and showed enough length to disrupt shooters. Teams weren't able to chew him up on the low block, though he has still got a lot to learn at defending the pick-and-roll. But that's nitpicking. Mirotic looks like a future All-Star, and he could seize a starting role in Chicago as soon as this season, regardless of the company he keeps on the Bulls' frontline. Besides being really good, Mirotic has a couple of other things going for him. First, he's a perfect fit for Hoiberg's preferred style of well-spaced offense. Second, Bulls star Derrick Rose loves playing with him.
Kirk Hinrich
Position: Guard
Experience: 12 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Declining athleticism limits offensive utility
+ Average deep shooter
+ Pesky, versatile defender who draws a lot of charges
Analysis
Kirk Hinrich's value has been increasingly tied to the intangible over the past few years, and last season his WARP slipped below replacement level. Way below, in fact: Hinrich's minus-2.7 WARP ranked 488th in the league. RPM didn't do him any favors either, as his minus-4.20 ranked in just the eighth percentile. Now 35, with 12 years under his belt, Hinrich returns to the Bulls once again. He's more a contingency than a building block these days. Even Hinrich defender Tom Thibodeau noticed, using Hinrich for limited stints in the 2015 postseason.
Hinrich still has value on the defensive end, though his RPM slipped into the red last season. He can guard either backcourt position and draws charges at an elite rate. His numbers against isos remained above average, as did his effect on opposing shooters. His offensive game these days is pretty nil. His passing indicators are above average but slipping. He's more apt to play off the ball now, and because his ability to make plays off the dribble is declining, Hinrich is often left to serve as a spot-up shooter. That's never really been his game. He is an average 3-point shooter and, these days, the Bulls have better options. This could be Hinrich's final campaign.
Aaron Brooks
Position: Guard
Experience: 7 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Dangerous, streaky instant offense threat
+ One of league's best shooters when left unguarded
+ Undersized on defense with impact bordering on un-playability
Analysis
Well-traveled Aaron Brooks enjoyed his best season in years during his first campaign with the Bulls in 2014-15. Tom Thibodeau always got good performances from undersized, shoot-first point guards, and Brooks proved to be no exception, following in the footsteps of Nate Robinson, John Lucas III and D.J. Augustin. When Derrick Rose was out, Chicago desperately needed Brooks' shot creation. His usage rate jumped nearly five percent, and he was above the league median in true shooting percentage. Brooks hit 38.7 percent on 3s for the second straight season, though he was among the league's worst finishers around the rim. Still, one of Brooks' underrated talents is his ability to knock down long-range open shots. Last season, Synergy rated him in the 97th percentile by averaging 1.53 points per unguarded catch-and-shoot looks. Two years ago, his 1.86 average on those plays was the best qualifying figure of the past three years.
Unfortunately, even in triumph, Brooks revealed his limitations. Brooks' defense is so chronically awful you can't afford to overexpose him, much less use him regularly as an off-the-ball threat alongside Derrick Rose. Brooks' single-season RPMs have ranked in the bottom 10 percent of the league in each of the past three years. He draws a lot of offensive fouls but is below average in steal rate. His pick-and-roll indicators are among the league's worst. Brooks enters another season as Rose's primary backup, but now that he's into his 30s, Brooks' abilities to stick open looks and get hot off the bench are more crucial than ever for his hopes of continued employment in Chicago.
Tony Snell
Position: Forward
Experience: 2 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Athletic defender with good length and below-average strength
+ Improved long-range shooter and finisher at the rim
+ Needs to add in-between game and enhance ability to set up others
Analysis
This will be a crucial campaign for the young career of Tony Snell. Despite across-the-board upgrades in his game and a more NBA-ready body, Snell still merely climbed to replacement level. His RPM improved by over five points but was still in the red. Without another significant step forward in Snell's third season, he'll remain in the ranks of the highly replaceable. Unfortunately for the Bulls, and perhaps fortunately for Snell, he'll have ample opportunity to prove himself. That's not to say the Bulls don't like Snell -- they do -- but no one in Chicago welcomed the news that starting 3 Mike Dunleavy was going to miss at least a couple of months because of back surgery and is likely to be out longer than that. That will leave what new coach Fred Hoiberg calls a committee approach at the position, one that will consist of Snell, Doug McDermott and Nikola Mirotic.
Snell didn't add much to his game on offense but simply became better at what he already does. His usage rate (14.7 percent) is that of a specialist. He settled for fewer midrange shots and increased his forays to the hoop, where his improved strength allowed him to finish at an above-average rate. Snell is a good athlete, and with good elevation and a better handle than he had as a rookie, he is now more than a standstill shooter. His in-between game is lacking, and he's not a great passer. But he became a threat from long-range, especially from the corners, with a more consistent release and a quicker load-up on his shots. On defense, Snell was around the league average in RPM. His athleticism and length play well when contesting shooters. However, Snell doesn't have great help instincts, and his still-lacking strength hurt him down low and on the boards. While Snell has room and time to grow, this may be his best chance yet to prove he can be a rotation fixture in Chicago.
Doug McDermott
Position: Forward
Experience: 1 year
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Struggled through injury-plagued rookie season
+ Premier shooting threat, when healthy, with ability to make plays off the dribble
+ With limited strength and foot speed, unlikely to be plus defender at NBA level
Analysis
Doug McDermott's college analytics marked him as a ready-made NBA contributor. But poor health and a lack of confidence from coach Tom Thibodeau resulted in a largely lost campaign for the NCAA's No. 5 all-time leading scorer. McDermott chipped in with just 321 minutes, missing large swathes of games by coach's choice and a knee injury that resulted in an in-season arthroscopic surgery. When he did play, he looked unsure of himself and failed to knock down open shots he almost took for granted during his salad days at Creighton. In the playoffs, McDermott saw only mop-up action. Now he gets a fresh start with fellow Ames, Iowa, native Fred Hoiberg. While his family's personal history with Hoiberg doesn't ensure anything, it can't hurt anything, either.
Because we saw so little of McDermott in 2014-15, we have to default to his pre-draft scouting report. When he's right, McDermott is a dynamic shot-maker and long-range shooter. He has the ability to make plays against close-outs and a knack for setting up others. One of his best attributes is an ability to play the mid-post, which should make him a tough matchup for most types of NBA defenders, and it's a skill that helps him slide between both forward positions. Hoiberg's offense needs the kind of spacing McDermott can provide. Mike Dunleavy's back injury opens a window for McDermott to seize a regular role. All of this means the early part of the coming season will be as important for McDermott as any player in the league.
Bobby Portis
Position: Rookie
Experience: Forward
2015 draft profile
Scouting report
+ High-energy big man
+ Inside/outside scoring arsenal
+ Projects as above-average rebounder and shot blocker
Analysis
ESPN's Chad Ford called Portis one of the safest picks of the 2015 draft after Chicago took him at No. 22 in June. Portis then went out and had an eye-opening turn in the Las Vegas Summer League, earning raves for his constant effort, motor and willingness to mix it up. Portis has potential as an energy guy off the bench with the value-added ability to hit open face-up shots. He has solid post skills, where he got about 25 percent of his plays last season at Arkansas, according to statistics from Synergy. SCHOENE sees him as a plus rebounder right off the bat with potential as a rim protector. He's not a great raw athlete, and so he'll need to funnel a lot of that abundant effort into the defensive end if he's to provide a counterpoint to the games of Pau Gasol and Nikola Mirotic.
Portis will be the fifth big guy on the Chicago depth chart, but as Gasol is in his mid-30s, Joakim Noah is an injury risk and Taj Gibson is coming off surgery, Portis shouldn't rot on the bench as a rookie. Hoiberg said at the team's media day that at the very least, Portis will push Chicago's rotation bigs in practice. With Noah's contract expiring after the season, Portis could be the guy to provide some of the energy, rebounding and defense Noah has provided over the years.
E'Twaun Moore
Position: Guard
Experience: 4 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Combo guard with tweener skill set
+ Has tried to become more of a long-range shooter to mixed results
+ Below average on defense with good help indicators
Analysis
E'Twaun Moore had his moments last season, including a game against Oklahoma City in early March when he hit all six of his fourth-quarter shots, including the game-winner on a corner 3. Still, those moments were few and far between as Moore's minutes total slipped to 504, and he finished below replacement. Moore has gradually tried to carve out a role as a combo guard/shooting specialist. But even as his usage rate shrinks, his efficiency remains well below league average. He's not a consistent long-range shooter, and his solid floater is a weapon that just isn't called on often. Moore is an above-average passer and protects the ball well. But his offensive RPM last season was just minus-1.54. His tweener skill set extends to the defensive end, where his RPM was minus-1.11. His help defense indicators are solid, but he struggles in isolation. His rebounding for a player his size is well below average.
Cameron Bairstow
Position: Forward
Experience: 1 year
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Face-up big man
+ Potential as banger on offensive glass
+ Subpar athlete with limited defensive upside
Analysis
We didn't see much of Cameron Bairstow last season, as he got just 64 minutes. Chances are we won't see much of him this season, either. Bairstow provided little more than a midrange shooting threat, and he struggled even at that. His best hope going forward is to extend his range to the 3-point line, and that's been the focus of his off-season development. Just as important to Bairstow's hopes for sticking in the NBA, he has got to improve his body, both in terms of strength and mobility. During his limited minutes, the Bulls allowed 121.8 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor, and he showed an alarming propensity to gamble and commit fouls. Already 25 and operating on a second-rounder's contract, Bairstow doesn't have much time to turn it around. He enters the season as the sixth big man on Chicago's depth chart. If he doesn't carve out a niche quickly, he may be developing his skill set overseas.
Cristiano Felicio
Position: Forward
Experience: Rookie
2014 draft profile
Scouting report
+ Tough, strong interior big man
+ Good rebounder and finisher around the basket
+ No much of a face-up threat
Analysis
The Bulls took an offseason flier on undrafted Brazilian big man Cristiano Felicio over the summer, and he'll head to training camp in hopes of winning the last open spot on Chicago's roster. Felicio is a burly interior player at his best mixing it up around the rim.