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No. 3: Atlanta Hawks
Last season: 60-22
1st place in East; lost 4-0 to Cleveland in Eastern Conference finals
Atlanta's All-Star foursome is returning after the Hawks won a franchise-high 60 games. The organization unveiled new uniforms, logos and color schemes. The team added champion big man Tiago Splitter in his prime for basically nothing.
Yet there doesn't seem to be optimism in Georgia's capital. And for good reason.
Three-and-D monster DeMarre Carroll left in free agency and the team has no rock-solid replacement at this point. Backup power forward Mike Scott was arrested on two felony charges and may face punishment from the league. And Kyle Korver is still working his way back from ankle surgery.
Was last season a one-hit wonder, like the 2003-04 Indiana Pacers, or do the Hawks have staying power?
As front-office turmoil hovered over the organization, the Hawks flew under the radar early. A fully healthy Al Horford, who battled pectoral issues the past couple of seasons, led the charge on both ends as the Hawks jumped out to a 21-7 record. On Dec. 26, they got blown out by 30 points at home to Milwaukee. Then, history.
The Hawwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwks proceeded to win a franchise-record 19 consecutive games to earn sole possession of the best record in the NBA at 40-8. Korver made a scalding 55.4 percent of his 3-pointers during the streak and watched as the entire NBA shuddered in terror.
Of course, the team came back to Earth a bit, but they still steamrolled to 60 wins and the top playoff seed in the East.
So what changed? With a healthy squad, the defense got sharper, as Carroll and Horford led the way. Also, Dennis Schroder made the leap as a 21-year-old, achieving the biggest PER bump among qualified players last season.
However, the storybook season came to a screeching halt when Thabo Sefolosha suffered a broken leg while being handcuffed by New York City police, ending his season in early April. It got worse. Korver broke his ankle in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Cavs and that sealed the Hawks' fate. Despite a breakout postseason for Carroll, an impending unrestricted free agent, the Hawks were swept by LeBron James & Co.
This was a summer in which the Hawks traded wing depth for frontcourt depth.
Carroll agreed to a four-year, $58 million offer from the Toronto Raptors, a sum nearly 12 times larger than his previous contract with the Hawks. The exit hit the Hawks hard as the perimeter corps nursed major injuries in the offseason.
But with coach Mike Budenholzer doubling as the team's president of basketball operations, the team snatched Paul Millsap away from Orlando's max offer, signing the All-Star big man to a three-year, $59 million contract. Budenholzer, a former Spurs assistant, also landed Splitter in a trade for a 2017 second-round pick and the rights to 30-year-old Greek big man Giorgos Printezis.
Finally, the team signed 7-foot-3 prospect Walter "Edy" Tavares, a 2014 second-round pick, to an NBA deal. Splitter and Tavares will look to shore up the void left by Pero Antic's move to Europe and Scott's uncertain future.
The Hawks don't care for top-20 picks, apparently. Months after trading 2014 No. 14 pick Adreian Payne to Minnesota, the Hawks dealt the 15th pick for the 19th, and then dealt that for Tim Hardaway Jr., a bizarre target for a team that emphasizes passing and defense. Hardaway Jr. joins free-agent signee Justin Holiday on a suddenly shallow wing corps as Korver and Sefolosha work their way back from serious leg injuries.
Asking the Atlanta Hawks to improve upon their 2014-15 campaign almost seems unfair, but those are the expectations that come with 60 wins, and it won't be easy. The team's best defensive starter, Carroll, moved on to Toronto. The Hawks plugged that hole and a couple of others with a series of understated additions. "Continuity, growth and improvement were important to us," Budenholzer said. "We're returning 10 guys who played significant roles, four of them starters, and the addition of Tiago [Splitter], who has a significant understanding of how we want to play and was a starter for several years on a very good team. Tim Hardaway Jr. has some abilities we think will fit well and has room to grow with us. Justin Holiday is coming from another very good team and we feel there is great opportunity for him. Edy [Tavares] is 7-foot-3 and we're excited about his potential."
There are a few lingering questions. The Hawks' projected starters on the wings, Korver and Sefolosha, will be coming off three combined surgeries. "Can we regain our health early?" Budenholzer said. "We consistently say we want to get better as a team and individually. That's the challenge coming off a good season. We need to get a lot better. The league is very good and many teams have improved." -- Kevin Arnovitz
Projected Real Plus-Minus for starters
Jeff Teague, PG: -1.2
Kyle Korver, SG: +4.2
Thabo Sefolosha, SF: +1.9
Paul Millsap, PF: +3.9
Al Horford, C: +2.3
Scouting reports on every player on the Hawks
Using shot data from 2014-15 and projected starters, Grantland's Kirk Goldsberry ranks each team's offensive efficiency based on square footage.
Korver led the NBA in 3-point percentage (49.2) and hit on an absurd 57 percent from the right corner last season. That he projects to hit just 48 percent this season is quite a drop.
With Korver as sniper, the trio of Teague, Millsap and Horford shot a solid 61 percent from inside 5 feet.
All About The Space: 14th (426 sq. ft. of above-average offense)
To identify players who stretch offenses the most, ESPN Stats & Information created the Kyle Korver effect -- a metric on a 1-100 scale, factoring in 3PT%, 3-point attempt rate (percentage of total shots that come from 3-point range) and influence on teammate FG%.
Korver effect: Korver (98.8) had a true shooting percentage of 69.9 percent last season, tops among non-centers in NBA history.
This will be a different Hawks team from the one that played like a well-oiled machine last season, but you can safely pencil in the Hawks to return to the playoff field. Sure, the team's fate rests on how quickly Korver and Sefolosha, both in their 30s, get back to full health. But Splitter provides a significant upgrade over Antic, and Tavares is a wild card who could evolve into a Rudy Gobert-type force underneath. Maybe that won't happen this season, but Atlanta has a good track record of overachievers -- think Schroder and Carroll -- in Budenholzer's space-crazy system.
Few expect the Hawks to deliver another 60-win season. The question is how far the slide will go. Kevin Pelton's SCHOENE projections expect the Hawks to fall around the 45-win range, with rankings just inside the top-10 on both ends of the floor. Real plus-minus projections, however, offer a more pessimistic look, giving the Hawks an expected record of 43-39 as they lick their wounds on the perimeter and struggle to recapture the magic that made them a top-six offense last season.
If the Hawks do fall below 50 wins this upcoming season, it would be pretty rare. Of the 29 teams since 2000 that finished with between 58 and 62 wins in a season, only five failed to reach the 50-win plateau the following season -- the 2013-14 Thunder, 2009-10 Cavs, 2007-08 Pistons, 2003-04 Pacers and 2003-04 Timberwolves. We're expecting the Hawks to become the next team on the list, but still contend for the No. 2 seed in the East.
East No. 2 | East No. 4 | Full List
