Future Power Rankings: Teams 1-5

Consider this a convenient way to see the direction your favorite team is headed.

Each of the NBA's 30 teams received an overall Future Power Rating of 0 to 1,000, based on how well we expect each team to perform in the three seasons after this season.

To determine the Future Power Rating, we rated each team in five categories (see table at right).

As you can see, we determined that the most important category is a team's current roster and the future potential of those players -- that category accounts for 40 percent of each team's overall Future Power Rating.

At the same time, we looked at many other factors, such as management, ownership, coaching, a team's spending habits, its cap situation, the reputation of the city and the franchise, and what kind of draft picks we expected the team to have in the future.

With all the big moves made in the last few months, it's time for a new edition of the Future Power Rankings. Two important notes: (1) we are evaluating each team's prospects for the 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons; and (2)
we are not, for the most part, considering the changes that might be made to the collective bargaining agreement because there is no way to know how those changes will reshape the league.

Here are our latest rankings, from 1 to 30:

Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30

1. Chicago Bulls | Future Power Rating: 729

In August, after making several moves last summer, the Bulls took a big leap from ninth to fourth. Now? For the first time ever, they've claimed the No. 1 spot in our rankings.

There is a lot to be bullish about in Chicago. Derrick Rose is the leading candidate for this year's MVP honors, an amazing accomplishment for a 22-year-old; Joakim Noah is blossoming, now that he's healthy again; and Carlos Boozer gives the Bulls scoring inside. They may not be the "Big Three," but they've been almost as good as the trios in Boston and Miami when they've been on the court together.

Chicago gets a big bump in the Management category -- up from No. 14 to No. 8 -- thanks to new coach Tom Thibodeau, who has the Bulls playing great defense and much better offense as well.

While the Bulls still need to find a 2-guard with a jump shot, otherwise this is starting to look like a championship-caliber team that is set up to stay that way for the next five years. Besides the Heat and Thunder, can any other teams say the same?

(Previous rank: 4)

2. Oklahoma City Thunder | Future Power Rating: 726

We chose the Bulls as the team to beat going forward, but Oklahoma City rated as a close second, trailing Chicago by just three points in the Future Power Rating. General manager Sam Presti moved another step closer to completing his championship blueprint by acquiring center Kendrick Perkins at the trade deadline and immediately signing him to a contract extension, ensuring that Oklahoma City's athletic, skilled and frighteningly young core has a true center to go with the talent amassed at the other four spots.

In fact, we rate the Thunder No. 1 in the Players category, and Presti & Co. rated second only to the Spurs in Management. Additionally, Oklahoma City's favorable salary-cap situation gives the Thunder the flexibility to add pieces and make moves as necessary in coming years, most notably by extending the contracts of their young stars.

Of course, the Thunder remain behind the Bulls in the Market category. Chicago and the Bulls franchise are much greater lures, and -- as with San Antonio and the Spurs organization -- it's going to take certain types of players to adapt to the culture of the Oklahoma City locale and the Thunder franchise. As a result, Oklahoma City might lose out on free agents that could round out its roster.

Fortunately, Presti seemed to know that all along, which one reason he traded for Perkins and extended Nick Collison, and why even with cap space the past two summers, the Thunder never dove headlong into the free-agent market. Instead, Presti has built his team from the bottom up, and over the next three years we rate them the most dangerous bunch in the West.

(Previous rank: 2)

3. Miami Heat | Future Power Rating: 661

The Heat ranked No. 1 in our previous edition, but we've had to temper our expectations in light of their somewhat disappointing regular season. In particular, we dropped the rating for their players from first to third. While LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh are a fearsome trio, they put up better numbers apart than they have together. But the bigger reason is that the supporting cast has been worse than expected. Miami committed to five-year deals for both Mike Miller and Joel Anthony, and both have been terrible. Meanwhile, nobody has offset those subpar seasons with a surprise campaign.

That said, Miami still has tremendous advantages over the next three years. Not only do they have a spectacularly good nucleus, but the Heat also have strong management from the top down -- owner Micky Arison, team president Pat Riley and coach Erik Spoelstra each are among the best. Additionally, the magnetic lure of this market -- a sunny tax haven with three superstars to play alongside -- has already paid benefits by luring free agents Erick Dampier and Mike Bibby during the season, and likely will continue to do so in future campaigns.

One concern going forward is the possibility of a hard salary cap in the next collective bargaining agreement. The Heat rank dead last in the Draft category, as they'll be picking late when they pick at all (multiple future picks are owed to Cleveland and Chicago through Toronto as part of the James and Bosh acquisitions). Plus, they're capped out by paying James, Wade and Bosh, which means if the new collective bargaining agreement doesn't include midlevel or biannual cap exceptions, the Heat will have great difficulty surrounding their star trio with championship-caliber talent.

(Previous rank: 1)

4. Los Angeles Lakers | Future Power Rating: 644

The two-time defending champion Lakers are championship contenders again this year, and likely will be in the hunt for at least two more years. Certainly, a foursome as mighty as Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Andrew Bynum and Lamar Odom isn't just going to fizzle overnight, even as Bryant, Gasol, Odom and Ron Artest age a bit.

Nonetheless, enough cracks are showing in the foundation for us to leave the Lakers just fourth in our rankings. Bynum and Shannon Brown are the Lakers' only decent players under 30, which is scary, because it means they're counting on Kobe, Pau & Co. to bridge the gap for a few more years until they can bring in meaningful reinforcements.

Additionally, the Lakers have virtually no means to make quality additions for the coming seasons, particularly if the new collective bargaining agreement eliminates the midlevel exception, because L.A. is already capped out for the foreseeable future. (Forget those Dwight Howard fantasies, folks -- unless the Magic trade him for Bynum, you're not getting him.) And while the Lakers are still a luxury-tax team with, in fact, the highest payroll in the league, owner Jerry Buss has become increasingly tight with the excess cash -- L.A. has made salary-dumping deals each of the past three seasons.

We had to give the Lakers a lower score in the Management category to price in the likelihood that Phil Jackson will not return next season. The Lakers' prestige should allow them to hire a quality replacement, but regardless of who fills Phil's shoes, the new coach will be a downgrade from arguably the best coach in history.

(Previous rank: 3)

5. San Antonio Spurs | Future Power Rating: 611

The Spurs have the best record in the NBA right now. So why aren't they No. 1 in our rankings?

Because it's pretty hard to see how this run stretches all the way into 2013-14. Tim Duncan (35 next season), Manu Ginobili (34 next season), Antonio McDyess (37 next season, if he returns) and Richard Jefferson (31 next season) won't keep this up forever, and Duncan in particular has slowed down already. Tony Parker (29 next season) is the only Spurs veteran who remains in his prime. George Hill, DeJuan Blair and Tiago Splitter appear to have bright futures, but as role players, not stars.

But we're still high on the Spurs, mostly because of their stellar ownership, front office and coaching. We've ranked them No. 1 in the Management category every time, and they continue to prove us right as they reload and fill in around the aging Duncan and Ginobili.

(Previous rank: 8)

Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30

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