Future Power Rankings: Teams 21-25

Consider this a convenient way to see the direction your favorite team is headed.

Each of the NBA's 30 teams received an overall Future Power Rating of 0 to 1,000, based on how well we expect each team to perform in the three seasons after this season.

To determine the Future Power Rating, we rated each team in five categories (see table at right).

As you can see, we determined that the most important category is a team's current roster and the future potential of those players -- that category accounts for 40 percent of each team's overall Future Power Rating.

At the same time, we looked at many other factors, such as management, ownership, coaching, a team's spending habits, its cap situation, the reputation of the city and the franchise, and what kind of draft picks we expected the team to have in the future.

With all the big moves made in the last few months, it's time for a new edition of the Future Power Rankings. Two important notes: (1) we are evaluating each team's prospects for the 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons; and (2)
we are not, for the most part, considering the changes that might be made to the collective bargaining agreement because there is no way to know how those changes will reshape the league.

Here are our latest rankings, from 1 to 30:

Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30

21. Golden State Warriors | Future Power Rating: 441

The Warriors have new owners, but so far there's very little evidence that anything has changed.

Golden State has the same general manager, the same all-flash, no-substance game between the lines and another team on track for about 35 wins.

The Warriors have talented players, particularly Monta Ellis, Stephen Curry and David Lee. Dorell Wright has been a nice pickup, and Reggie Williams was a great find.

But the team still has little in the way of a winning culture, a defensive ethic or a long-term strategy. For one thing, it's hard to see how the Warriors can advance very far with Curry and Ellis together in the backcourt. While they complement each other offensively, often in spectacular fashion, they can't guard anyone, and they don't have defensive stoppers behind them, either.

Financially, the Warriors have a little flexibility, but not as much as they would like. So while there are reasons to be hopeful, the Warriors at No. 21 feels just about right.

(Previous rank: 22)

22. Memphis Grizzlies | Future Power Rating:432

We like Memphis' current roster a lot, and it's not hard to see why. With talented young players such as Rudy Gay, Mike Conley, Sam Young, O.J. Mayo, Darrell Arthur and Marc Gasol and in-their-prime veterans such as Zach Randolph and Tony Allen along with prospects such as Xavier Henry and Greivis Vasquez in the pipeline, few doubt Memphis has the pieces in place to stay in the West's top eight for the next three years.

It's the other stuff that has us worried. We dropped Memphis from No. 7 to No. 25 in the money category because we suspect that, with this year's success, the Griz will keep free agents Randolph and Gasol. That would be good for the talent base but put the Grizzlies in an unfavorable financial situation going forward. It would likely preclude future dips into the free-agent pool and, for a low-revenue team that's unlikely to pay luxury tax, probably cost them the services of Mayo, and perhaps Young, when those players become free agents.

Thus, the Grizzlies would be left to depend on internal improvement and strong management, and the latter hasn't been their strong suit in recent seasons. Owner Michael Heisley's interference with general manager Chris Wallace, along with the sometimes-bizarre decisions by coach Lionel Hollins, such as ignoring Allen for a good chunk of the season while starting a clearly unready Henry, have left observers scratching their heads.

Finally, as a smaller city with limited allure for out-of-town free agents (although Tennessee's lack of income tax could help), Memphis is the 29th-rated market, meaning it may have trouble drawing additional pieces to the franchise, even if the Grizzlies decide to spend.

Overall, it's a mixed bag, with significant upside and significant concerns.

(Previous rank: 21)

23. New Orleans Hornets | Future Power Rating: 426

The Hornets' present isn't bad, but their future is very much up in the air. The team became a ward of the state (the NBA, that is) since the last time we did this exercise, and nobody is sure how the league will dispose of its new asset -- via relocation, via contraction or via the long-shot hope of local ownership riding in to save the day.

On the court, there's equal uncertainty. Everyone talks about Chris Paul's impending free agency in 2012, while ignoring that David West can walk this summer. The high-scoring forward has no incentive to sign an extension to his current below-market contract. The best and the worst parts are that he's tight with CP3. If West goes, Paul is almost certainly next. If the Hornets can somehow keep West, it should increase the chances Paul would re-up, too.

In the meantime, new general manager Dell Demps is pulling out all the stops, bringing in more help (and some West insurance) in the form of Carl Landry at the trade deadline. All this has the Hornets barely hanging on to a playoff spot, even with Paul playing at his usual high level.

If Paul stays, the future still isn't a bed of roses. The Hornets have little young talent in the pipeline, having traded promising guard Marcus Thornton for Landry and swapping their first-round pick to Portland to acquire Jerryd Bayless (since traded to Toronto). Additionally, Paul's bothersome knee may render his window of dominance at the point small.

All this explains why the Hornets are just 23rd in the rankings, even though they are a playoff team at the moment. They're doing all they can to stay relevant in the West, but it's not clear they can find their way back to the upper crust.

(Previous rank: 23)

24. Milwaukee Bucks | Future Power Rating: 419

The Bucks' sudden rise and precipitous fall have been well-documented by our rankings over the last 16 months. In our first edition, we ranked the Bucks 29th, next to last. Less than a year later, the team was ranked 18th after a draft steal of Brandon Jennings and a surprise playoff run. But this season has been a major struggle, and they've dipped back down to No. 24 in our rankings.

Last year, John Hammond was the league's executive of the year, as virtually everything he touched turned to gold. This year? Not so much.

Andrew Bogut continues to battle pain from a major injury to his right arm last season. Jennings is talented, but he hasn't improved as much as expected.
John Salmons, who signed to a big contract last summer, is having an off year. So is Corey Maggette, and Drew Gooden has played just 25 games this season.

Moving forward, there are serious questions about how the Bucks get better. Salmons, Maggette and Gooden are overpaid and underperforming. The Bucks badly need a return to form for those players, a return to full health for Bogut and rapid development by Jennings.

(Previous rank: 18)

25. Toronto Raptors | Future Power Rating: 384

The Raptors are struggling mightily in the post-Chris Bosh era. Sadly for Raptors fans, our long-term prognosis for the team remains extremely pessimistic.

The team has some young talent, including Andrea Bargnani, DeMar DeRozan, Ed Davis and Amir Johnson. Bargnani scores 22.1 a night; DeRozan is coming on in his sophomore season; Davis has showed promise at the 4 in his rookie season; and Johnson, who seems to have been in the NBA forever, is having the best overall season at 23 years old. Unfortunately, we aren't convinced any of them will blossom into the kind of star performer that would propel the Raptors back into contention. Thus, we've ranked them 27th in the players category. The addition of James Johnson at the trade deadline did nothing to really bump the needle.

We remain pessimistic about the management of the team, as we struggle to see GM Bryan Colangelo's long-term plan. While the team has some offensive talent, the Raptors remain a mess on defense. And after a complete overhaul of the roster, they are still stuck in neutral near the bottom of the Eastern Conference.

(Previous rank: 28)

Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30

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