Future Power Rankings: Teams 11-15

Consider this a convenient way to see the direction your favorite team is headed.

Each of the NBA's 30 teams received an overall Future Power Rating of 0 to 1,000, based on how well we expect each team to perform in the three seasons after this season.

To determine the Future Power Rating, we rated each team in five categories (see table at right).

As you can see, we determined that the most important category is a team's current roster and the future potential of those players -- that accounts for 40 percent of each team's overall Future Power Rating.

At the same time, we looked at many other factors, such as management, ownership, coaching, a team's spending habits, its cap situation, the reputation of the city and the franchise, and what kind of draft picks we expected the team to have in the future.

With all the big moves around the league this summer, it's time for a new edition of the Future Power Rankings. Two important notes: (1) now that the NBA calendar has flipped to a new season, we are evaluating the 2011-12, 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons; and (2) we are not considering the changes that might be made to the collective bargaining agreement because there is no way to know how those changes will reshape the league.

Here are our latest rankings, from 1 to 30:

Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30

11. Orlando Magic | Future Power Rating: 541

The Magic dropped five spots in this iteration of the Future Power Rankings, with uneven play and an increasingly large heap of bad contracts sullying the fact that they have the game's most dominant big man -- at least, for a while. Dwight Howard can become a free agent in the summer of 2012, and his potential departure will hang over the team until he signs an extension.

Howard has some talented teammates, most notably point guard Jameer Nelson, power forward Brandon Bass and the vastly underrated Ryan Anderson, but around them are a lot of older players who are compensated far too much for their production. Gilbert Areanas, Hedo Turkoglu and Chris Duhon are essentially untradeable because of their contracts, which will have the Magic in the luxury tax until at least 2013.

That they can do this in such a small market is testament to the ownership of the DeVos family, and that they can win so consistently with only one superstar points to the quality of coach Stan Van Gundy. But one wonders when the spending stops and, in particular, if Jason Richardson's free agency this summer is precisely that point. Even with the current payroll, the Magic look like fringe contenders, and despite Howard's dominance it's hard to see their lot improving in future seasons.

(Previous rank: 6)

12. New Jersey Nets | Future Power Rating: 538

The Nets may have pulled off the coup of the trade deadline with a deal that snagged them All-Star point guard Deron Williams for a package that included Derrick Favors, Devin Harris and draft picks. But there's a big asterisk here. New Jersey traded for Williams without any assurances that he'd sign a contract extension with the team before he can hit free agency in 2012. If he bolts, the Nets appear to have made a catastrophic deal. If he signs for the long haul, they should continue to move up the rankings.

For the moment, we decided to split the difference, giving the Nets a small bump for the trade but remaining in wait-and-see mode until we figure out whether they have a good chance of keeping Williams.

The key to whether Williams will stay probably comes down to how the Nets spend their roughly $18 million in salary cap space this summer. If they can land another important player (preferably at the 4) to put on the floor with Williams and big man Brook Lopez, the Nets will start to look pretty formidable. But the Nets have yet to show that they can lure a big-time player via free agency. That may change when the Nets finally move to Brooklyn in 2012, but for now players are not beating a path to Newark.

(Previous rank: 12)

13. Dallas Mavericks | Future Power Rating: 535

As discussed in previous editions, the Mavericks remain one of the best teams in the league, but the future is cloudy. With an older core, a payroll over the salary cap and players heading into free agency, the Mavs will be hard-pressed to keep playing at such a high level.

Several key players -- Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Shawn Marion, Jason Terry and Brendan Haywood -- are moving past their career primes and are likely to provide diminishing returns in the future. Two other impact players -- Caron Butler and Tyson Chandler -- will be free agents this summer, and their futures with the team are still very much up in the air.

The Mavs' list of up-and-coming players consists of one guy, 23-year-old point guard Rodrigue Beaubois. He hasn't played much this season, or especially well, because of injury, but he should be a significant contributor in future seasons. Whether he is truly a cornerstone player remains to be seen.

The good news for Mavs fans is that owner Mark Cuban is creative and has found ways to keep the Mavs relevant. So while it's hard to see the Mavs maintaining their incredible streak of consecutive seasons with 50 or more wins for each of the next three seasons, it's hard to count them out, too.

(Previous rank: 9)

14. Utah Jazz | Future Power Rating: 526

The Jazz took the greatest fall of any team in our rankings. Not only did Utah lose its best player, All-Star point guard Deron Williams, in a February trade, but it also lost the soul of the team when Hall of Fame coach Jerry Sloan decided he'd rather deal with John Deere.

In December, the Jazz were No. 5 in our rankings, but they are down to No. 13 now. While we didn't expect such a steep decline, of course, or the sudden departure of Williams and Sloan, the slide eventually might have been worse if general manager Kevin O'Connor had waited and watched Williams walk out the door.

With Williams grumbling and a growing belief in Utah that he wouldn't re-sign with the team, O'Connor shocked everyone, including Williams, by dealing him to the Nets for Derrick Favors, Devin Harris and two first-round draft picks.

The move killed any thoughts the Jazz had about being playoff contenders this year but set the team up for the future. Favors, a big, athletic power forward, was the No. 3 pick in the 2010 draft. Harris, while no D-Will, was an All-Star two years ago and still has a lot to offer.

They join Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson as the core of a team which hopes rookies Gordon Hayward and Jeremy Evans are keepers, too. Add a pair of 2011 lottery picks, including the Nets' pick, and the Jazz should be able to rebuild while remaining reasonably competitive.

One big question mark is at the coaching position, at which Sloan's abrupt resignation left a gaping hole. While Tyrone Corbin has come in and is doing what he can to pick up the pieces, the Jazz's long-term plans are up in the air.

(Previous rank: 5)

15. Denver Nuggets | Future Power Rating: 513

After all the Melo drama, it's shocking to see how well the Nuggets have come out of it. Denver squeezed the Knicks for so many assets in the Carmelo Anthony trade that we've actually moved the Nuggets up two spots in this batch of rankings, with the money category being the key. Denver was capped out and into the tax before the trade, but by including Chauncey Billups in the deal the Nuggets have plenty of leeway to re-sign star center Nene Hilario, shooting guard Arron Afflalo and new arrival Wilson Chandler.

Once they take care of business in the coming offseason, the Nuggets will be poised to be major players in the free agent market of 2012, especially if they can move Al Harrington or Chris Andersen prior to that. In the meantime, their crop of young talent is impressive enough to rank in the middle of the NBA pack even without Anthony. Nene, Ty Lawson, Raymond Felton, Danilo Gallinari, Chandler and Afflalo are solid players now and young enough to make major contributions over the next three seasons.

The Nuggets also removed another piece of uncertainty by re-upping George Karl to a three-year extension, keeping one of the game's top coaches in tow.

Denver's draft rating is middling because its picks the next three years are likely to be in the middle of the first round, but we should note that two assets the Nuggets own -- a 2014 first-rounder from New York and the right to switch picks with the Knicks in 2016 -- could be put to use earlier in the form of trades for draft picks, players and inducement to take Harrington and Andersen off their hands.

(Previous rank: 17)

Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30

• Chad Ford: On Twitter | On ESPN.com | On TrueHoop | E-mail
• John Hollinger: On Twitter | On ESPN.com | On TrueHoop | E-mail
• Follow ESPN.com's NBA coverage on Twitter