Can the Phoenix Suns parlay their perfect 5-0 start to seeding games into an improbable trip to the playoffs?
Phoenix entered the restart 13th in the Western Conference and needing to pass four teams just to reach the NBA's play-in matchup. With Saturday's win over the Miami Heat, the Suns moved ahead of both the New Orleans Pelicans and San Antonio Spurs -- by percentage points in the latter case -- for 10th, with the ninth-place Portland Trail Blazers just a half-game better.
Once again, I've used the multiyear version of ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) to simulate the remaining seeding games 1,000 times. How often do the Suns reach the play-in?
Let's take a look at what to expect going forward in the West play-in race.
Memphis Grizzlies
• Finish eighth in 68% of simulations
• Finish ninth in 25% of simulations
• Reach playoffs in 54% of simulations
Despite their shaky start, the Grizzlies were always in good shape to make at least the play-in matchup because of their enormous lead entering the restart. Blowing out the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday has solidified Memphis' chances of holding off Portland and finishing eighth in the West -- crucial because it means having to win only one game to advance to the playoffs, whereas the ninth seed must win both play-in games.
The Grizzlies now have a two-game lead over the teams tied for 10th that is effectively larger because they win any tie in the standings with those teams. Memphis has one additional win and one additional loss as compared to San Antonio, meaning a better overall record, and the Grizzlies claimed the head-to-head tiebreaker over Phoenix with a 3-1 series win.
That means one more Memphis win (against a difficult remaining schedule of the top three teams in the East -- Toronto, Boston and Milwaukee, some or all of whom might rest their starters) would clinch a spot in the play-in.
Portland Trail Blazers
• Finish eighth in 23% of simulations
• Finish ninth in 35% of simulations
• Reach playoffs in 24% of simulations
The return of Zach Collins and Jusuf Nurkic from injuries that limited them to a combined three games played during the pre-bubble regular season (all by Collins, before he underwent shoulder surgery) has made Portland look a lot more like the team that earned the third seed in the West last season and advanced to the Western Conference finals.
It hasn't hurt that All-Star Damian Lillard (21-of-48, 44%) and emerging sixth man Gary Trent Jr. (22-of-35, 63%) have both made more 3-pointers than anyone else during the seeding games. The Blazers' defense still ranks 20th in the seeding games, but their offense has been the league's second best, helping Portland start 3-2.
A win Saturday would have been huge for the Blazers, but they're still a comfortable favorite to make the play-in. If they can find one win among their next two games (Philadelphia and Dallas) and take care of business in their finale against Brooklyn, either the Suns or Spurs will have to win out to pass them in the standings. In that scenario, New Orleans could not possibly catch Portland. So 2-1 would most likely be enough for the Blazers to reach the play-in, though a perfect finish would improve their chances of moving up to eighth.
New Orleans Pelicans
Update: With the Pelicans' loss and the Trail Blazers' win on Sunday, New Orleans has been eliminated from the playoff picture.
Phoenix Suns
• Finish eighth in 3% of simulations
• Finish ninth in 18% of simulations
• Reach playoffs in 8% of simulations
Slowly but surely, the Suns keep climbing from deep in the standings. My projections for the restart had them making the play-in just 1% of the time.
Phoenix still might have to win out to catch the Grizzlies or Blazers, but why start losing now? None of the Suns' three remaining opponents (Oklahoma City, Philadelphia without Ben Simmons and Dallas) is unbeatable for a team that has already knocked off four above-.500 opponents, and those teams won't have nearly as much motivation to win as Phoenix -- seeking its first trip to the playoffs in a decade.
San Antonio Spurs
• Finish eighth in 2% of simulations
• Finish ninth in 9% of simulations
• Reach playoffs in 2% of simulations
One wild card in projecting the remaining seeding games is how seriously teams locked into the playoffs will take them without home-court advantage at stake. San Antonio was on the receiving end of a gift Friday from the Utah Jazz, who sat four starters. (In fairness, Portland also benefited from Denver coach Michael Malone opting against bringing back his starters for the fourth quarter of the Blazers' win on Thursday.)
The victory over the Jazz kept the Spurs even with the Suns in the standings entering Sunday's game against New Orleans. If the Spurs can navigate that contest successfully, winning out is certainly plausible, with Houston and Utah (again) rounding out the schedule -- as neither team will have much to play for in terms of seeding.
Sacramento Kings
Update: With the the Trail Blazers' win on Sunday, Sacramento has been eliminated from the playoff picture.
MORE: Michael Porter Jr. and eight more breakout players