What are our new NBA projections ahead of Thursday's restart? And which games will matter most?
With scrimmage games done, I've updated our predictions for player rotations, the eight seeding games, the play-in tournaments and the NBA postseason.
These new projections are based on simulating the rest of the season 1,000 times using the multiyear version of ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) to rate players.
Let's break down the results and take a look at the importance of some key matchups.
Most likely play-in participants
The play-in tournaments in each conference will take place if the team in ninth place is within four games of the team in eighth.
Let's break down the probability of that happening in the West and the East.
In the table, the percentages refer to a team's chances to finish eighth or ninth and also close enough to cause a play-in tournament. For instance, in 67% of simulations, the Grizzlies project to finish eighth but no more than four games ahead of the ninth-place team. In 21% of simulations, they finish ninth and within four games of eighth.
There has been a tiny bit of reshuffling here because of updated minutes projections. With Zion Williamson returning to practice Tuesday after an excused trip home for personal reasons, I cut his projected minutes per game under the expectation his playing time will be somewhat limited in early seeding games.
Conversely, the Portland Trail Blazers benefit from shifting more minutes to centers Jusuf Nurkic and Hassan Whiteside, who could play together at times against certain matchups. Portland coach Terry Stotts started a Nurkic-Whiteside frontcourt in one of the team's three scrimmages.
Overall, the simulations end with a play-in matchup in the West 95% of the time.
The addition of Jonathan Isaac to the Orlando Magic's projection -- albeit at a conservative 15 minutes per game during seeding games as he works back from a knee injury suffered on New Year's Day -- has made it somewhat less likely that they're involved in a play-in matchup, with the Brooklyn Nets more likely now to be involved in that game.
No matter how much the Nets might struggle, forcing a play-in battle will be an uphill battle for the short-handed Washington Wizards. Even if Brooklyn goes 0-8, the Wizards have to win another game besides their head-to-head matchup to get within four games in the standings. And that will be difficult for Washington, which has the worst projection of any team in the restart.
Likely playoff seeds
The notable changes here involve the Indiana Pacers, who don't have All-Star Domantas Sabonis in my projections after he left the NBA campus to seek treatment for plantar fasciitis last week, but they do have Victor Oladipo. Though Oladipo has yet to officially declare he'll play in the restart, he played 25 minutes per game in the three scrimmages.
The net tradeoff is an improved projection from the Pacers, making them more likely to move up to fourth and less likely to slip to sixth. They're now about equally as likely to finish fourth or fifth as the Philadelphia 76ers, with the Miami Heat also in the mix.
Seeding projections in the West haven't changed much, but it's worth noting that the LA Clippers aren't a sure thing to finish second. They enter the eight seeding games with a 2.5-game cushion over the Denver Nuggets for third, and will be without Lou Williams for at least their opening two games against the rival Lakers and Pelicans and Montrezl Harrell for at least the opener, with Patrick Beverley's availability uncertain for that game. (I've projected Harrell, whose return date is unknown, to miss the first two games.)
The difference between the second and third seeds is marginal without home-court advantage in the playoffs, but it will matter to the opponent in the opening round, who'd surely much rather face the Nuggets than a Clippers team at full strength.
How far will each team advance?
My ESPN colleague Doug Kezirian wrote recently about the possibility of a long-shot champion this season due to the unusual nature of the restart and neutral-site playoff games. While these projections can't really account for the former factor, or the possibility of injuries or COVID-19 transmission knocking out key players, they don't really show unusual uncertainty.
Nearly two-thirds of simulations are won by either the Milwaukee Bucks or Los Angeles Lakers, and the top six teams combine to win the championship 97% of the time. A win by the Boston Celtics, Houston Rockets or Toronto Raptors probably would qualify as a surprise champion, but I'm not sure it's all that much more likely than the typical postseason, where uncertainty is hard to remember in hindsight. Consider last year, when the eventual champion Raptors entered the playoffs with the fourth-best title odds at 10-1 against.
Key matchups to watch
Memphis vs. New Orleans, Monday
New Orleans 59% win probability
If Memphis wins: Memphis 65% to finish eighth, New Orleans 18%
If New Orleans wins: Memphis 42%, New Orleans 39%
The matchup between the Grizzlies and Pelicans looms larger than any other single seeding game. If Memphis wins that game, it will be nearly impossible for New Orleans to catch the Grizzlies and enter a play-in matchup in eighth place. Conversely, a Pelicans win would give them almost even chances to Memphis of reaching the playoffs.
Memphis vs. Portland, Friday
Portland 54% win probability
If Memphis wins: Memphis 63% to finish eighth, New Orleans 29%, Portland 4%
If Portland wins: Memphis 44%, New Orleans 33%, Portland 14%
The Grizzlies will open their seeding games against the Blazers, who are marginally ahead of New Orleans for ninth but have a more difficult schedule of seeding games. That makes the Memphis game virtually a must-win for the Blazers to ultimately reach the playoffs.
New Orleans vs. Sacramento, Aug. 6 and Aug. 11
New Orleans 36% probability of sweep; Sacramento 16% probability of sweep; 48% probability of split
If Sacramento sweeps: Memphis 71% to finish eighth, Sacramento 16%, New Orleans 6%
If New Orleans sweeps: New Orleans 51% to finish eighth, Memphis 39%, Sacramento 0%
The Pelicans were set to play the Kings in Sacramento on March 11 when the season was postponed, and the two teams will face each other twice in the eight seeding games. Those matchups are especially important because they'll also determine the head-to-head tiebreaker if New Orleans and Sacramento finish with identical records. A Kings sweep would give them an edge on the Pelicans for ninth, while a New Orleans sweep would all but eliminate Sacramento -- and also result in the Pelicans passing the Grizzlies for eighth 33% of the time.
Brooklyn vs. Washington, Sunday
Brooklyn 67% win probability
If Brooklyn wins: 5% chance of play-in matchup
If Washington wins: 18% chance of play-in matchup
If the Wizards are going to make an unlikely run at a playoff spot, they'll almost certainly need to win their head-to-head matchup with the Nets.