The Miami Heat avoided blowing a 3-0 lead in the conference finals, but couldn't get over the hump in the Finals and now face an offseason with critical decisions to be made.
Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are both under contract for next season, and Tyler Herro's rookie extension is set to kick in, likely sending Miami into the luxury tax. Can the Heat afford to pay that for a team that won just 44 games and entered the playoffs as the 8-seed -- even if that same team did come within three wins of a title?
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State of the roster
How do we judge the roster in Miami? Are the Heat the inconsistent 44-win team that finished 25th in offensive efficiency, 27th in 3-point percentage and lost to Atlanta in the first play-in game? Or is Miami the playoff team that beat the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks in the first-round, the New York Knicks in the second round and sent the Boston Celtics home in the East finals? The Heat ranked third in offensive efficiency and third in 3-point percentage during the playoffs.
The answer to that likely falls somewhere in the middle. Heat players missed 289 regular-season games, second-most in the league, forcing coach Erik Spoelstra to use 26 different starting lineups. The injuries to Herro, Butler and Gabe Vincent also saw Miami use six different starting lineups in the playoffs.
The Heat will now have to make basketball and business decisions this summer. The basketball part is the value and impact free agents Vincent, Max Strus and Kevin Love played in leading Miami to the Finals. The business part is a franchise high $173 million payroll, 61% of which is dedicated to Butler, Adebayo and Herro, making Miami a luxury tax team for only the second time in nine seasons. There is also a new collective bargaining agreement set to begin in July that restricts and penalizes high spending teams on how they build their roster. However, while the Heat will not have access to the $5 million taxpayer midlevel exception and are not allowed to sign a player bought out of their contract (like they did with Love this past season), the stringent second apron rules (cannot aggregate salaries in a trade, restricted on trading future draft picks, not allowed to send cash in a trade) do not start until the 2024 offseason.
While Miami, at least for one season, is not forced to choose between Strus, Vincent or even mandated to shed Kyle Lowry's $29.7 million expiring contract, that changes next offseason. A new contract for Caleb Martin (he has a $7.1 million player option) next year and signing both guards this offseason puts the Heat over the second tax apron in 2024-25.
Because of the projected second apron next year, Miami also has a one-year window if it wishes to aggregate salaries and target an All-Star player like Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard or Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal. Starting next offseason, the Heat would not be allowed to trade, for example, a package of Herro, Duncan Robinson and draft compensation for a player earning $45 million.
Free agents: Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Kevin Love, Cody Zeller, Victor Oladipo (P), Udonis Haslem, Omer Yurtseven (R), Jamal Cain (R) and Orlando Robinson (R)
Offseason finances
The Heat dodged the luxury tax in 2022-23 but that will likely not be the case next season. With Herro's extension beginning, Miami has $176 million in salary (including its first-round pick and Oladipo's $9.5 million player option) and are projected to be $14 million over the tax threshold. Oladipo has until June 29 to opt in to his contract. Haywood Highsmith's $1.9 million contract will become guaranteed on July 15.
Top front-office priority
Vincent. The Heat have Bird rights and can exceed the cap to re-sign Vincent despite their high payroll.
Vincent started 34 games this season in place of Lowry, averaging 10.8 points on 43% from the field, 36% on 3s and 90% at the line. In the Game 3 win against Boston, Vincent scored a career-high 29 points and made six 3-pointers. The Heat have to decide if Strus is a priority or luxury especially with Herro's $120 million extension set to begin. Strus played the most games (80) of any Heat player, averaging 11.5 points on 35% from 3. A hypothetical $10 million salary for each player would cost the Heat an additional $70 million in luxury tax penalties.
Extension candidate to watch
Three years removed from signing a five-year, $163 million rookie max extension, Adebayo is once again eligible for a new contract. The maximum Miami can offer is an additional two years and $97 million. The extension would start in 2026-27. If Adebayo passes on a new contract, he could sign a four-year, $243 million supermax extension next offseason if he earns All-NBA in 2023-24.
Adebayo finished this season second in points in the paint but shot only 63.8% on layups and dunks, a 6.2% decrease from the year before. The drop was the fifth largest among players who attempted more than 200 shots per Second Spectrum. To offset his struggles at the rim, Adebayo saw an increase from 36.8% last year to 46.5% on jumpers. He averaged 2.5 made jumpers per game inside the paint, the most in the NBA.
Other extension candidate: Lowry
Team needs: Shooting, frontcourt and bench depth. After ranking third in catch-and-shoot 3-point field goal percentage last year, the Heat slid all the way to 28th this season. The Heat started five different players at power forward this season: Butler, Love, Highsmith, Caleb Martin and Nikola Jovic. Love has non-Bird rights and the maximum Miami can re-sign him to is a contract that does not exceed $3.8 million.
Draft picks in June: No. 18
Future draft assets: The Heat have their own 2024 first-round pick and will send Oklahoma City a top-14 protected first in 2025. The pick is unprotected in 2026 if not conveyed in the prior year. The Heat are allowed to trade their 2023 first and a future first starting two years after the conditions to Oklahoma City have been met. They can put a maximum of three first-round picks into a trade. They have two second-round picks available to trade.