For the first time in NBA history, the Denver Nuggets are the last team standing. Nikola Jokic & Co. took home the franchise's first title, and now the attention turns to the offseason, where new collective bargaining agreement rules will make it hard to keep this team's depth intact.
Still, Jokic, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon are all under contract through at least 2024-25, giving the Nuggets stability as they look to build on their first title run.
Offseason guides for every eliminated team
State of the roster
Coming into the season, the question was whether Denver had a championship roster if healthy. In the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons, Denver players missed a total of 535 games, tied for the third most last season and sixth most in the prior year. The end result was a pair of early playoff exits, despite MVP seasons from Jokic. This season, Nuggets players missed 153 games due to injury, the eighth fewest in the league. In the playoffs, coach Michael Malone used one starting lineup for all 20 games. The result? The first championship in franchise history.
The big picture outlook is that Denver's starting five is positioned to have sustainable success for at least the next two seasons. Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Porter, Gordon and Jokic are all under contract through at least 2024-25 (Caldwell-Pope has a player option and can be a free agent in 2024). Jokic is entering the first year of the five-year, $272 million supermax extension he signed in July. Meanwhile Murray has two years left and is extension eligible this offseason, Gordon has three seasons remaining and Porter has four years left.
If there is a concern, it comes with the new collective bargaining agreement and the impact it has on the Nuggets' ability to build depth around their core players. Denver is one of only two teams with three max players (Jokic, Murray and Porter). The Nuggets owe Charlotte, Orlando (2025) and Oklahoma City (2027 and 2029) first-round picks over the next seven years and enter the offseason with the possibility of losing sixth man Bruce Brown in free agency. The limited means with which to improve fall on the development of recent draft picks Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, Zeke Nnaji, and Vlatko Cancar. Denver will also have two second-round picks in this year's draft, and retains the rights to 2022 second-round pick Ismael Kamagate. The center averaged 9.6 points and 7.9 rebounds this season with Paris Basketball.
Free agents: Bruce Brown (P), Jeff Green, DeAndre Jordan, Thomas Bryant, Reggie Jackson, Ish Smith, Jack White (R) and Collin Gillespie (R)
Offseason finances
The Nuggets are a tax team for a second consecutive year, a result of the starting five earning $150 million. Including Brown's $6.8 million player option, Denver is $7.7 million over the $162 million tax threshold. Brown has until June 21 to opt in to his contract for 2023-24. The Nuggets could have the $5 million tax midlevel exception if Brown or Jeff Green do not return, but signing a player pushes them closer to the $179.5 million second apron. They do, however, have a newly created second-round exception available to sign their draft picks to a contract longer than two seasons.
Because Denver is likely over the $169.5 million first apron, the Nuggets cannot take back more than 110% in salary in a trade and are not allowed to sign a player bought out of their contract if his pre-waiver salary was more than $12.2 million. For example, Denver would not have been allowed to sign guard Reggie Jackson this season had these new CBA restrictions been in place.
Top front-office priority
After spending the prior four seasons in Detroit and Brooklyn, Brown has found a comfort level and an identified role in Denver. During the playoffs, Brown led all reserves in total points, and Denver was a plus-9.8 per 100 possessions when he was on the court. Per Cleaning the Glass, Denver was plus-50.9 in the playoffs and averaged 146.3 points per 100 possessions when Brown played with Murray, Porter, Gordon and Jokic.
However, Brown is projected to see his salary double if he declines his $6.8 million player option for next season. In his career, Brown has earned a total of $15.1 million. Because the Nuggets are a tax team and Brown has non-Bird rights, the maximum contract that Denver can offer the guard is $7.8 million. For Brown to receive a greater payday, he would need to sacrifice financially for one season and then become a free agent again in 2024. He would then be allowed to sign a contract starting at $13.4 million. The financial downside is that Denver has $169 million in committed 2024-25 salary and likely will be a second apron team.
The Nuggets are less restricted when it comes to Green. The next contract for the forward can range from the veteran minimum exception ($3.2 million), non-Bird rights exception (up to $6 million) or early Bird exception (up to $11.9 million). The early Bird exception has to be for a minimum of two seasons, not including any option years. Green averaged 7.8 points, 2.6 rebounds and shot 48.8% from the field in the regular season.
Extension candidate to watch
Three years removed from signing a five-year, $158 million rookie max extension, Murray is now eligible to sign a new pact. Because he has two years remaining, the maximum that Denver can sign the guard to is three years and an additional $144 million in new money. The $44.3 million salary in the first year starts in 2025-26. Murray could take the risk and bypass signing an extension and wait until next offseason. If he earns All-NBA in 2023-24, he would then be eligible to sign a five-year, $300 million-plus supermax extension. In the conference finals, Murray had his second career playoff series averaging 30 points on 50/40/90 shooting (also 2020 first round vs. the Jazz). Murray and Kevin Durant (three times) are the only players to average 30 points on 50-40-90 shooting in multiple series in NBA history. Murray has scored 20-plus points in the fourth quarter four times in his playoff career, double any other player since play-by-play was first tracked in 1996-97. The other players to do this twice are Allen Iverson and Michael Jordan.
Team needs: Backup point guard if Bruce Brown Jr. leaves, bench scoring and frontcourt depth.
Draft picks in June: No. 37 (via WAS) and No. 40 (via DAL)
Future draft assets: The Nuggets recouped a 2024 first-round pick in the recent trade with Oklahoma City. Denver will now have the least favorable first-round pick of Oklahoma City, Houston (if 5-30), Utah (if 11-30) and the LA Clippers. Despite trading their own first to Charlotte this year and owing Orlando a top-5 protected first in 2025, the Nuggets are allowed to trade their own 2024 first or the pick received from the Thunder. Denver will also send Oklahoma City a top-5 protected first in 2027 and protected first in 2029. The Nuggets have three future second-round picks available.