NBA All-Star Weekend is underway, which means it's time for our second look at the ESPN Rookie Power Rankings. For each player in our top 10, we will provide a player comparison of a former or current NBA All-Star whom each rookie projects to be like if he can reach his full potential.
The Rookie of the Year race continues to be a blowout, with Caesars Sportsbook anointing Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero as a heavy favorite (-950) to claim the award ahead of Indiana Pacers guard Bennedict Mathurin (+550). The next best odds belong to Utah Jazz center Walker Kessler (+2000), followed by Detroit Pistons guard Jaden Ivey (+5000).
We rate the top first-year players based on their success to this point, as opposed to future potential. This is not a re-draft, but rather an evolving list examining which rookies have been most valuable to their teams.
10. Dyson Daniels | New Orleans Pelicans
Stats: 4.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 2.5 APG | ROY odds: +30000
Best-case All-Star comp: Dejounte Murray
Previous ranking: 5
The best defender in this rookie class, Daniels has been able to maintain his place in the rotation of a playoff contender despite struggling to put the ball in the basket.
Daniels was seeing significant playing time prior to a nasty Jan. 24 ankle injury, mostly on the back of his defense, which several advanced metrics rank as being among the best in the entire league. He's often tasked with defending the opposing team's best player thanks to his ability to get over screens, mirror with his excellent footwork, and also display outstanding timing and technique off the ball.
Offensively, Daniels contributes with his excellent ball movement and feel for the game, but has really struggled to make shots consistently, hitting just 33% of his 3-pointers and not putting much pressure on opposing defenses inside the arc to compensate. He looked significantly better earlier in the season playing off the likes of Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram and should get more opportunities once the three of them return after the All-Star break.
9. Jeremy Sochan | San Antonio Spurs
Stats: 10.0 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 2.5 APG | ROY odds: +30000
Best-case All-Star comp: David West
Previous ranking: NR
Sochan has made significant monthly improvements, culminating in the best stretch of his rookie campaign prior to being sidelined with a back injury. The Spurs have lost 18 of their past 19 games and are unabashedly positioning themselves in the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes, something that has clearly benefited Sochan as he's being provided with unlimited opportunities to play through mistakes.
Sochan is getting some reps as the Spurs' primary playmaker, being given the freedom to initiate the offense and especially push off the defensive glass. He's showing impressive creativity finishing around the basket and getting others involved, even if there have been plenty of questionable decisions. Mostly treated as a nonshooter by opposing defenses, Sochan has dropped some flashes of potential in this area, shooting 13-for-31 (42%) from beyond the arc in his past 10 games, while converting 87% of his free throws despite shooting with one hand.
Time will tell if Sochan's slow-releasing jumper can become a consistent weapon, something that would make him an extremely dangerous option considering the outstanding two-way versatility he already brings to the table.
8. Jalen Duren | Detroit Pistons
Stats: 8.6 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 0.9 BPG | ROY odds: +30000
Best-case All-Star comp: Dwight Howard
Previous ranking: 8
Duren entered the Pistons' starting lineup in early December and has responded with impressive productivity, emerging as one of the NBA's best rebounders and finishers while making strides on the defensive end.
Considering he's the NBA's youngest player, having just turned 19 in November, and is the same age or younger than most 2023 draft prospects, there are quite a few reasons to be bullish on Duren's future, making it all the more surprising he fell to No. 13 last June.
7. AJ Griffin | Atlanta Hawks
Stats: 9.3 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 1.0 APG | ROY odds: +40000
Best-case All-Star comp: Rashard Lewis
Previous ranking: 4
Griffin's minutes have been up and down, but he continues to be efficient for a playoff-contending Hawks team. He's making 39% of his 3-pointers this season despite doing significant damage running off screens or shooting off the dribble, hitting more than half his pull-up jumpers on the season, the NBA's third-best rate after Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry.
The NBA's second-youngest player (19 years, 6 months), Griffin has room to grow with his ballhandling, decision-making and defense but has shown encouraging flashes in every area relative to where he was a year ago, especially physically, where he has found another gear with his explosiveness now that his injury woes are hopefully in the rearview mirror.
After he was considered a top-10 pick for much of the 2022 NBA draft cycle, the Hawks were surely thrilled to have plucked him at No. 16 and have already reaped benefits, with much more likely to come as Griffin enters his 20s.
6. Jalen Williams | Oklahoma City Thunder
Stats: 12.2 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 2.9 APG | ROY odds: +7500
Best-case All-Star comp: Khris Middleton
Previous ranking: 6
Williams continues to play heavy minutes (29 MPG, fifth among rookies) and impress on both ends of the floor with his versatility and outstanding feel for the game. He plays a variety of roles and positions for the Thunder, sliding between point guard and power forward thanks to his strong frame, 7-2 wingspan and ability to impact the game either on or off the ball. Williams' perimeter shooting has been inconsistent (32% from 3), but he has shown enough ability over the course of the season to not be too concerned about this part of his game.
Defensively, he's similarly utilized all over the floor in the Thunder's switch-heavy system and has held up well against guards and big men alike. Players in Williams' mold are incredibly valuable in today's NBA, and there's quite a bit to be encouraged about by the way he has hit the ground running in his rookie season.
5. Walker Kessler | Utah Jazz
Stats: 8.2 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 2.1 BPG | ROY odds: +2000
Best-case All-Star comp: Rudy Gobert
Previous ranking: 10
Kessler has exploded into Rookie of the Year conversations since being reinserted into Utah's starting lineup, translating his excellent per-minute production across a bigger sample to emerge as one of the most productive big men in the entire league. He's the NBA's second-best shot-blocker and ninth-best rebounder per 40 minutes while ranking fifth in effective field goal percentage.
Kessler keeps things simple offensively, offering an excellent target out of pick-and-roll with his soft hands, strong timing moving off the ball, high skill level finishing with either hand and explosiveness operating off two feet with a runway. He runs the floor with purpose, crashes the offensive glass aggressively and rarely strays outside his comfort zone, keeping mistakes to a minimum on both ends of the floor.
Defensively, he's difficult to score over inside with his massive 9-foot-5 standing reach and tremendous instincts as a rim protector. His timing operating out of drop coverages is highly impressive for his age, but he still has room to grow as a switch option and guarding skilled big men on the perimeter as he's susceptible to being burned when on an island.
Kessler looks like the biggest steal of the 2022 draft class thus far relative to where he was picked (No. 22) and the fact that he's a very capable starting option already at just 21 years old. How much he's able to grow with his skill level on the perimeter and versatility defensively will dictate just how high his upside is ultimately, but the Jazz have to be thrilled to have him on a bargain rookie-scale contract for another three seasons.
4. Jaden Ivey | Detroit Pistons
Stats: 15.2 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 4.6 APG | ROY odds: +5000
Best-case All-Star comp: Russell Westbrook
Previous ranking: 3
Ivey is putting up big per-game numbers on mediocre efficiency (47% from 2, 33% from 3) but is receiving valuable reps as Detroit's primary ball handler and facilitator. This should be highly beneficial for both parties long-term, as it improves the positioning of the Pistons in the Wembanyama sweepstakes.
Ivey's ability to change gears and get into the teeth of any defense he faces gives him difference-making potential as his decision-making and finishing ability continue to sharpen. He already has shown growth with his live-dribble passing and pull-up jumper, but he still has plenty of room to improve defensively, where his intensity level and awareness leave much to be desired on a consistent basis.
Ivey drops flashes of All-Star potential nightly and Detroit fans have plenty to be excited about regarding the 20-year-old's long-term outlook.
3. Keegan Murray | Sacramento Kings
Stats: 11.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1.1 APG | ROY odds: +7500
Best-case All-Star comp: Danny Granger
Previous ranking: NR
Murray hasn't been quite as consistent as some hoped considering he's one of the oldest rookies in the class, but he has made strides defensively and found his range as the season progresses, now shooting 42% from 3 while playing a significant role at 30 MPG for a Kings team that is currently in third place in the West.
There's a maturity and intelligence to his game on both ends of the floor that makes him an easy fit on any roster and lineup configuration, making him an ideal role player with his propensity for stretching the floor, limiting mistakes, defending multiple positions and making winning plays.
There are some question marks Murray has to answer regarding his shot-creation prowess and overall upside, but every team in the NBA is currently searching for players in Murray's mold. He's an ideal fit and important part of Sacramento's current resurgence.
2. Bennedict Mathurin | Indiana Pacers
Stats: 17.2 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 1.4 APG | ROY odds: +550
Best-case All-Star comp: Jaylen Brown
Previous ranking: 2
The gap between Mathurin and Banchero has widened as the Pacers have lost 13 of their past 15 games and Mathurin's jumper has cratered; he's hitting just 24% of his 3-pointers (35-for-145) since Nov. 30.
There's still quite a bit to like about how easily scoring comes for the 20-year-old as he already rates as one of the NBA's most prolific transition scorers and is second in the rookie class at 17.3 PPG. Mathurin's combination of power, explosiveness and physicality in attacking unbalanced defenses gives him unlimited potential in the open floor as he's incredibly savvy in drawing fouls and finishing through contact with either hand, showing impressive creativity and touch around the rim with a head of steam.
The half court is where Mathurin has been much more of a mixed bag as NBA teams have caught on to his reluctance to pass the ball, his struggles dealing with help defenders and his lack of a midrange game. It's surprising to see how much Mathurin has struggled shooting the ball this season with his feet set (30% on catch-and-shoot jumpers per Synergy Sports) and how many open 3-pointers he's passing up, something he never did at the University of Arizona. How much nuance he's able to add as a shot-creator both for himself and teammates out of pick-and-roll and isolation will go a long way in ultimately determining how high his upside is.
Defensively, Mathurin has struggled as many expected based on what we saw in college, being targeted by opponents whenever he's on the floor. His intensity wavers, he's frequently caught napping off the ball, and he hasn't shown much progress in recognizing coverages and understanding switching opportunities, often leaving his teammates high and dry with his slow reactions.
Mathurin set the bar so high for himself with his exceptional play offensively in the first two months of the season that it's not shocking to see him come down to earth somewhat, even if he has continued to put up big scoring numbers. How much he's able to improve on his weaknesses this season and beyond will help determine if Mathurin gets an invite to the main game of All-Star Weekend down the road.
1. Paolo Banchero | Orlando Magic
Stats: 19.9 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 3.6 APG | ROY odds: -950
Best-case All-Star comp: 2014 Blake Griffin
Previous ranking: 1
Banchero is running away with Rookie of the Year honors, not just due to his scoring prowess as he's also proving capable of winning at the NBA level too. After starting the season 5-20, the Magic are 19-15 since Dec. 5, likely putting them out of the Wembanyama sweepstakes and into the fringes of the play-in game conversation.
Banchero is already one of the NBA's most lethal young shot-creators and has been difficult for even elite defenders to contain in the open floor with his combination of size, strength, skill and aggressiveness. He's an excellent ball handler who can pass on the move, finish aggressively through contact, shoot off the dribble and has terrific touch and creativity around the basket, giving him significant potential initiating pick-and-rolls and pushing off the defensive glass. Better decision-making is the next key in Banchero's development. He relies too much on his iso-pullup game and hasn't been as effective with his 3-point shot (28%) as he needs to be with the way defenses are sagging off him, passing up open jumpers on the perimeter.
Defensively, Banchero's basketball instincts, strength and mobility have allowed him to be more effective than most thought he would be early on in his career. He still has some lethargic moments off the ball and isn't a good enough rim protector or rebounder to see as many minutes at center in the modern NBA, but he has held his own more often than not, especially one-on-one.
Surrounding Banchero with more shooting will be a priority for Orlando moving forward, but the Magic are already ahead of schedule with the depth of talent they've acquired. It has allowed them to notch some impressive victories this season and gives their fans significant reason for optimism. Banchero looks like the gem of the 2022 NBA draft class thus far and still has considerable room to grow long-term.
Jonathan Givony is an NBA draft expert and the founder and co-owner of DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service used by NBA, NCAA and international teams.