The 2022 NBA draft, while not quite as lauded as the 2021 class, was considered relatively strong in terms of star power and overall depth. Only a quarter of the way into 2022-23, it's too early to make too many sweeping conclusions, but it's safe to say we haven't seen as many impactful players as we did the past two seasons at the same stage.
It doesn't help that a potential Rookie of the Year candidate, Oklahoma City Thunder forward Chet Holmgren, is out for the season because of a foot injury. Several other first-rounders have struggled to get on the floor playing for an unusually large number of teams with deep playoff aspirations, which has limited the opportunities available for their young players to grow through trial and error. Team context is extremely important at this stage, as some franchises are more apt to throw their rookies directly into the fire with minutes and offensive responsibility than others, with other young players requiring opportunity and the need to keep veterans' trade value high going into the deadline.
Unlike in years past, the Rookie of the Year race is looking decidedly one-sided thus far, with Caesars Sportsbook anointing Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero a -400 favorite to claim the award ahead of Indiana Pacers guard Bennedict Mathurin at +260. The next best odds belong to Detroit Pistons guard Jaden Ivey at +2500, followed by Thunder forward Jalen Williams at +7500.
In this first version of ESPN's Rookie Power Rankings, we rate the top first-year players based on their success to this point. It's important to note that this is not a re-draft or based on future potential, but rather an evolving list based on which rookies have been most valuable to their teams.
11. Shaedon Sharpe | Portland Trail Blazers
Stats: 8.0 PPG, 2.4 RPG, 0.5 APG | ROY odds: +30000
Sharpe has been able to carve out more playing time than expected for an ambitious Portland team trying to maximize the prime years of Damian Lillard, ranking top 10 in both minutes played and scoring. He has had highs and lows as expected considering he sat out last season and missed much of his senior year of high school because of an injury. Shooting 38% from beyond the arc, Sharpe's shotmaking ability has been as advertised, be it off screens, pulling up in transition, relocating off pump-fakes or hitting difficult step-backs.
He's still figuring out the nuances of creating higher-percentage opportunities for himself and others and getting to the free throw line more often, and he has not shown much yet as a passer. Defensively is where Sharpe has the most room to grow, which isn't surprising considering his lack of experience. His intensity comes and goes, and he struggles to be effective off the ball, falling asleep more than you'd hope. How much Sharpe can grow in these areas will help determine how he's viewed going into next season, but he has already shown considerable promise.
10. Walker Kessler | Utah Jazz
Stats: 5.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 0.6 APG | ROY odds: +25000
Kessler has been a pleasant surprise for the Jazz, who acquired him a week after the draft in the Rudy Gobert trade. The best shot-blocker in college basketball last season, Kessler has made the transition to the NBA look pretty seamless, already ranking as the NBA's best rim-protector with a gaudy 4.2 blocks per 40 minutes. Kessler has shown a good understanding of how to be effective within Utah's drop defensive scheme, showing good timing playing cat-and-mouse games with guards and using verticality and his 7-foot-4 wingspan to his advantage.
Offensively, he's a low-usage option for the Jazz but does a good job of crashing the offensive glass and presenting himself around the basket as a rim-runner, cutter or pick-and-roll finisher, setting screens quickly and diving to the rim with purpose. Kessler will need to improve his passing ability, show some range on his jumper and increase his 57% free throw percentage to show he can shoulder a bigger offensive role, but he has been effective in the role he's asked to play.
9. Andrew Nembhard | Indiana Pacers
Stats: 7.8 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 3.7 APG | ROY odds: N/A
The only player drafted outside the first round to make this list, Nembhard has been quite a find for the Pacers, stepping into a starting role in November and helping them to a surprise 12-11 start.
Playing alongside two of the NBA's best passers in Tyrese Haliburton and T.J. McConnell, Nembhard is a rare point guard who initiates very little offense, getting most of his contributions spotting up from the perimeter, attacking closeouts, using handoffs and unconventionally, as a screener, needing very few dribbles to make an impact. The ball never sticks with Nembhard in the game, and he loves making touch passes to whip it all over the floor and keep the offense flowing, knowing exactly what his role is. Nembhard's intelligence oozes off the screen, and he's currently playing with impressive confidence.
A streaky 34% 3-point shooter in college, Nembhard's more compact role has allowed him to increase that to 40% in the NBA, including a huge buzzer-beater to take down the Los Angeles Lakers. How much that's able to hold up over time will play a big role in how he's viewed, especially with how much he's currently playing off the ball.
Defensively, Nembhard is smart, alert and energetic, knowing and executing his team's scouting report and already looking far more capable off the ball than any rookie in this class. His average length and strength does cause him to get targeted at times by some of the better guards he's asked to contain one-on-one. How big of a role Nembhard can shoulder efficiently and whether he can hold up in increased minutes are questions NBA scouts are asking, but there's little doubt the Pacers have to be thrilled with what they've found in Nembhard, who's under contract until 2025-26.
8. Jalen Duren | Detroit Pistons
Stats: 6.5 PPG, 6.7 RPG, 0.6 APG | ROY odds: +25000
The NBA's youngest player, Duren has been unsurprisingly up and down this season but still looks like one of the league's most exciting rookies. Blessed with some of the best physical tools of any NBA big, he ranks top 10 in dunks and offensive rebounding percentage while showing intriguing versatility defensively, both as a rim-protector and while hedging or switching ball screens on the perimeter thanks to his outstanding mobility.
Criticized in the past for his inconsistent energy level, Duren's motor hasn't been an issue for the Pistons, and he has shown real promise with his skill level. Detroit having one of the youngest teams in the NBA, as well as the league's second-worst record, adds somewhat of an experimental quality to Duren's game on both ends of the floor, but the experience he's garnering will pay off for both sides down the road.
Cutting down on fouls and silly mistakes while increasing his shooting range and free throw percentage will be keys for Duren reaching his full potential, but it's difficult not to be excited about the flashes of All-Star potential he already shows.
7. Jabari Smith Jr. | Houston Rockets
Stats: 11.6 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 0.8 APG | ROY odds: +20000
Smith started the season poorly but has turned things around, as his jumper has started to fall with far more regularity (45% from 3 in his past 10 games) and the Rockets have done a better job of playing to his strengths. Still, there are red flags in terms of how one-dimensional Smith has appeared at times as a spot-up shooter and how difficult it has been for him to create high-percentage offense for himself or others because of his lack of explosiveness and average feel for the game, converting an alarming 39% of his 2-pointers.
Defensively, Smith has shown promise with his ability to contain smaller players and bother jump-shooters with his length, switching seamlessly in pick-and-roll. He has had some tough moments, getting outmuscled with his weak frame and looking like the game moves too fast for him, but there's hope that he'll continue to improve here as he gains strength and experience and the Rockets become more competitive.
Smith's team context isn't as favorable as other rookies, as he plays for one of the worst passing teams in the NBA and doesn't have as big a role as other players in his class, often just standing in the corner watching teammates dribble and settle for difficult shots. It hasn't been the best start for Smith, but it's important to remember that he's just 19 years old and not as physically ready for the rigors of the NBA as other players on this list.
6. Jalen Williams | Oklahoma City Thunder
Stats: 10.7 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 2.6 APG | ROY odds: +7500
The Thunder have given Williams more playing time than any player picked outside the top six, including extensive stretches as a primary ball handler, which is already paying dividends. Williams is dropping impressive flashes of ability in several areas, especially in pick-and-roll, where his size, feel for the game and ability to operate smoothly out of hesitation moves gives him significant potential. Williams' 40% 3-point shooting in college last year hasn't translated yet, but there are reasons to be bullish on his mechanics and historically strong free throw shooting to indicate he's better than the 31% he has shot beyond the arc thus far in the NBA.
Defensively, Williams' impact has been more muted, and he has plenty of room to grow like most rookies on this list. He fouls too much, struggles to navigate screens effectively and hasn't been ready to handle the star power of many of the guards and wings he has been asked to defend. Still, there are things to be encouraged by here, too, based on his effort level, the incredible length he possesses and his ability to guard multiple positions, which is extremely valuable in today's NBA.
Williams doesn't have as much physical upside to grow into as some of his rookie brethren, but he's already a very good basketball player who perfectly fits with what the Thunder are building.
5. Dyson Daniels | New Orleans Pelicans
Stats: 5.3 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.2 APG | ROY odds: +30000
Playing for a stacked Pelicans team that is within striking distance of the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, it shouldn't surprise anyone that Daniels was an afterthought in his team's rotation early on: a healthy scratch in several contests with a fairly compact role when he did play.
Daniels' positional versatility and ability to play on or off the ball might make it difficult to keep him off the floor moving forward, as he has already established himself as arguably the best defender in this rookie class while shooting 41% for 3, rebounding in bunches and facilitating for others.
He's still developing his hunger for scoring and has room to grow with his frame and ability to handle contact, but he's making significant progress seemingly every time he steps on the court and is still only 19 years old. Daniels has been the NBA's best rookie according to several metrics (Box Plus-Minus, Real Plus-Minus, net rating) and will draw more attention to his play if he continues to perform in a bigger sample.
4. AJ Griffin | Atlanta Hawks
Stats: 9.6 PPG, 2.0 RPG, 0.7 APG | ROY odds: +30000
Griffin was likely surprised to fall out of the lottery on draft night, but he ended up in a seemingly perfect spot alongside Trae Young in Atlanta. Griffin's dead-eye spot-up shooting, quick release and unlimited confidence pulling up off the dribble or running off screens has eased his transition.
He hasn't had to dribble or think as much in the faster-tempo NBA as he did in college, and he has shown some real peskiness defensively using his length, strong frame and high activity level to make an impact when called upon off the bench. He'll need to improve his ability to create off more than one dribble to take the next step in his development. Considering he's the second-youngest player in the NBA and already seeing quality rotation minutes for a likely playoff team, the Hawks are surely thrilled to have plucked him in the middle of the first round.
3. Jaden Ivey | Detroit Pistons
Stats: 15.9 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 4.3 APG | ROY odds: +2500
Injuries and the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes have caused the Pistons to go all-in on putting their team in Ivey's hands, which has helped him rank second in minutes, third in scoring and first in assists among rookies. Few players in the NBA turn defensive rebounds into highlight-reel transition opportunities as frequently as Ivey, something that won't surprise anyone based on his college film. He does two or three things every game that would draw significantly more attention if he played in a more high-profile situation.
Ivey has been a mixed bag as a decision-maker, outside shooter and defender as many anticipated, being up and down from game to game but looking like an All-Star-caliber player when at his best. It will take a few years to fully know what the Pistons have in Ivey, but there's quite a bit to be excited about. They'll likely be hoping the early growing pains Ivey's working through along with his considerable reps will end up eventually unlocking his potential.
2. Bennedict Mathurin | Indiana Pacers
Stats: 18.5 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 1.6 APG | ROY odds: +260
Mathurin is actually scoring more prolifically than Banchero on a per-minute basis, with his 27.1 points per 40 ranking top 25 in the NBA, an impressive feat for a 20-year-old. Add in 39% shooting from beyond the arc and getting to the line prolifically -- he's 11th in the NBA on a per-minute basis -- and we're talking about another young player who has had little issue adjusting to the physicality of the NBA. Unlike Banchero, Mathurin is doing it for a team that is surprisingly in the mix for a playoff spot at 12-11.
The scouting report on Mathurin's weaknesses hasn't changed much from college -- he still has room to grow defensively and with his ability to create for others. The Pacers have done a great job of letting him play to his strengths: transition scoring, attacking closeouts, moving off the ball and using his dynamic shotmaking off a variety of actions.
Still without a starting nod, Mathurin is attempting to become the first player to win Rookie of the Year and Sixth Man honors, and he can continue to close the gap on Banchero by helping the Pacers win games and putting up points in bunches.
1. Paolo Banchero | Orlando Magic
Stats: 21.8 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 3.6 APG | ROY odds: -400
Averaging 21.8 points, despite turning 20 just last month, it's safe to say Banchero is already one of the NBA's best young players offensively, something that was immediately evident on opening night when he posted 27 points, nine rebounds and five assists. Known for his polished shot-creation arsenal, Banchero ranks eighth in free throw attempts, nearly doubling his output from his lone year in college. He has greatly benefited from the spacing of the NBA game and the huge amount of usage he's getting in pick-and-roll and isolation situations, which makes up 43% of his offense, per Synergy Sports, up from 25% at Duke.
Often tasked with initiating the Magic's half-court offense, Banchero has also had some spectacular moments as a passer, an area he can continue to grow as the Magic surround him with more perimeter shooting and his own shot selection improves.
Defensively, Banchero has room to grow but has looked ahead of schedule relative to expectations, capable when dialed in and playing with intensity, which has happened more often than anticipated. His size, strength and instincts give him room to continue to improve, and there's already plenty to be encouraged by early on.
Magic fans have a lot to be excited about, especially considering the play of the rest of their young core: Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, Wendell Carter Jr. and Bol Bol.
Next up: Tari Eason, Jeremy Sochan, Ousmane Dieng, Keegan Murray, Nikola Jovic, Jake LaRavia
Jonathan Givony is an NBA draft expert and the founder and co-owner of DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service used by NBA, the NCAA and international teams.