While the All-Star break isn't for another month, the second half of the 2022-23 NBA season has already begun. All of the league's teams have played at least 41 games, which means it's a perfect time to look at some trends that have developed over the course of the season -- some of which have upended what we thought about the league in October and others of which have confirmed things we've learned over the past few seasons.
Will these six major trends hold up over the second half of this season? That remains to be seen. For now, let's break down the big on-court developments that have defined the first half.
1. Superstars are shining brighter than ever
It was just 10 years ago that not a single NBA player averaged 30 points per game over the course of the 2012-13 season. Only 11 players even topped 20 points per game that year.
A decade later, the superstar revolution is in full swing.
Five players -- Luka Doncic, Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jayson Tatum -- are averaging 30 points per game. Including that quintet, there are 44 players averaging at least 20. Across the NBA, teams are getting an average of 28.7 points per game from their leading scorer, the highest such number over the past 25 seasons.
What's behind this trend? Modern NBA offenses are increasingly concentrated around their star players.
Call it the Harden-Doncic effect: More and more, teams are giving the ball to their best stars and letting them cook -- over and over again. Letting elite perimeter players repeatedly attack defenses that are stretched thin from having to protect against leaving a shooter open beyond the 3-point line has become both relatively simple and efficient. And coaches are more willing than ever to let their star players dominate the ball.
Donovan Mitchell's incredible 71-point performance on Jan. 2 perfectly epitomized this trend. That night, Mitchell had a whopping usage rate of 41%. Not only did he record the most points any player has scored since Kobe Bryant dropped 81 in 2006, he also dished out 11 assists -- six of which led to 3-pointers.
Usage rate is a nerdy stat -- it's a measure of the number of possessions out of 100 in which a player records a shot, turnover or trip to the free throw line -- but it's the key metric that explains the underlying cause of this season's box score mania.
Last season, there were 139 games in which a player eclipsed a usage rate of 40%. This season, we are on pace for almost 180 such games, which would smash the record of 143 set back in 2019-20.
The rise of the 3-point shot was the definitive trend of the 2010s. It's starting to look like the rise of hyper-usage might be the definitive trend of the 2020s. Eight of the top 15 individual seasons in usage rate have come since 2019-20.
The 2010s were dominated by egalitarian offenses from the Miami Heat, San Antonio Spurs and Golden State Warriors, who combined to win six championships with offensive schemes predicated on ball movement. Well, after a brief hiatus, 2000s-style "hero ball" is back -- it has just rebranded itself heliocentrism.
2. The globalization of the MVP race is complete
Speaking of big-time superstars, they used to be almost exclusively American players, but that is no longer the case.
The first 49 times the NBA handed out the MVP award -- recently renamed for Michael Jordan -- a non-American player won the honors just once. In 1993-94 it went to Hakeem Olajuwon, who not only came up through the U.S. college system, but would go on to play with Team USA at the 1996 Olympics.
The past four MVP awards have been won by a pair of international players, and this season features four potential front-runners for the award who were born outside the United States.
Doncic, Embiid, Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic -- who is vying to become the first player to win three consecutive MVPs since Larry Bird in the 1980s -- are all having MVP-type seasons for their teams, but none of these guys started playing hoops stateside.
Jayson Tatum is the only American-born player who has played well enough to be considered among the MVP favorites this year. Kevin Durant was looking like he could be in the mix before a sprained MCL in his left knee knocked him out, potentially for up to a month. Ja Morant has his Memphis Grizzlies tied with Jokic's Denver Nuggets atop the West and could end up in the MVP mix as well.
Make no mistake, countries other than the United States are now routinely creating NBA superstars -- just ask all the teams yearning to add Victor Wembanyama to their teams in the 2023 draft. All told, this expanded superstar pool is fantastic news for the future of the NBA.
3. The NBA's power has shifted back to the East
You could make the case that since Michael Jordan's second retirement in 1999, the NBA's balance of power has rested in the Western Conference. West teams have accounted for 16 of the past 24 titles, with only one East team -- the Heat -- claiming multiple titles in that span.
But this year, the East is better than the West -- particularly when it comes to title favorites -- and it's not even close. The three teams with the best odds to win the title are the Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks and Brooklyn Nets, all of whom reside in the Eastern Conference.
Despite a dramatic coaching change in the offseason, the Celtics (+300 at Caesars Sportsbook) have been the East's best team for a full year now, and they have looked like the most consistently good team in the league this season. They own the league's second-ranked offense and its sixth-ranked defense, but Boston's return to the Finals is anything but guaranteed.
After pure chaos out of the gate, the Nets (+625) are playing their best basketball since signing Durant and Kyrie Irving in 2019. Brooklyn is 25-9 since Jacque Vaughn took over on Nov. 1 in large part because Vaughn has found defense in places that Steve Nash simply could not. The Nets, who ranked 29th in defensive efficiency in October, have the fourth-best defensive rating in the NBA under Vaughn. Yes, Durant is on the shelf right now, and his health is always a concern, but if he's healthy for the stretch run, the Nets could win it all -- they proved they were capable of it with their play in November and December.
Antetokounmpo and the Bucks have been scuffling of late, losing three of their past five games, but they still have one of the top five records in the league, despite having Khris Middleton for just seven games this season. The last time this team was fully healthy, it won the title. If Middleton can get going, the Bucks remain a legit championship contender. Brook Lopez, who missed most of the 2021-22 season, is back in top form, looking like a potential Defensive Player of the Year candidate while shooting 39% from 3. This team is loaded.
Meanwhile, the West is teeming with disappointing basketball teams. Sure, the Warriors, Phoenix Suns, LA Clippers, and Los Angeles Lakers are all led by stars with Finals experience, but you have to make the playoffs to play for a championship, and right now the Warriors, Clippers and Suns are all in play-in spots, while the Lakers are a dismal 13th in the West. At the top of the conference, Memphis, Denver and the New Orleans Pelicans look great, but those squads are still unproven in the playoffs.
At the halfway point, both conferences are wide open, but the top of the East is crowded with the best teams in the league right now.
4. The Gobert catastrophe goes beyond Minnesota
Last summer, the Minnesota Timberwolves went all-in on Rudy Gobert, sending five players, four first-round picks and a pick swap to the Utah Jazz for the three-time Defensive Player of the Year. The move was supposed to be the move that put the Timberwolves over the top. Instead it might have crippled Minnesota and poured cold water on the trade market around the league.
Unfortunately, halfway through Gobert's first season in Minnesota, that blockbuster deal is looking like what many would call a "catastrophe" for the Timberwolves.
Gobert's immense trade value hinges entirely on defense, but he's posting his worst defensive numbers in years. Gobert has been in the top five in the league in blocked shots in each of the past four seasons. This year he ranks 16th and has blocked fewer shots than Durant, Christian Wood and Bol Bol.
That's just the beginning. Climb to a nerdier plateau and you can see even more troubling evidence that Gobert's defensive virtues have plummeted since he changed uniforms.
If there's one fact that summarizes why Minnesota bet the farm on Gobert, it might be this nugget: Over his past three seasons in Utah, Gobert not only led the NBA in total shots defended, but among the 63 defenders who defended at least 2,000 shots in that time frame, he also held opponents to the lowest efficiency too (0.93 points per shot), per Second Spectrum tracking.
That's why we called him the "Stifle Tower," and why he's been an All-Star in each of the past three seasons. As a shot defender, he combined volume and efficiency in the same ways Stephen Curry does as a 3-point shooter.
But we're not seeing those numbers in Minnesota. Gobert is by no means a poor defender at this point, but those key indicators have cratered.
Last season, when they won in the play-in before falling to Memphis in the first round, the Timberwolves ranked 13th in the NBA in defensive efficiency. This year, after adding Gobert, they've actually fallen to 18th in the NBA. Imagine trading for Curry and seeing your 3-point numbers decline -- that's kind of what we are seeing in Minnesota so far.
Not only does this blockbuster deal look really bad for the Timberwolves, but it has somehow managed to raise the asking price for star players in the trades, while simultaneously providing teams with a very recent cautionary tale -- nobody wants to be the next Minnesota.
The only thing Gobert might be stifling in 2023 is other blockbuster trades.
5. The sun is setting on Phoenix's title window
After reaching the NBA Finals -- and taking a 2-0 lead in that series in 2021 -- and posting the league's best record in 2021-22, the Suns were expected to be a contender again this season. Instead, Phoenix sits below .500, having been decimated by injuries in the first half of the season. With the exception of Mikal Bridges, who is having a great season and leads the Suns in total points scored, virtually the entire Phoenix rotation has missed time.
The good news is that Phoenix should start to get key players back soon. If the Suns can trade Jae Crowder for another helpful player -- something that is complicated by the conditions placed on the Suns' front office during owner Robert Sarver's suspension -- it'd be fair to expect this team to start winning again.
The bad news is that Father Time might be catching up with Chris Paul. The 37-year-old point guard has missed 18 games, and when he has played, he hasn't looked like the same player. He's averaging 13.1 points per game, the lowest total of his career. His 42.5% shooting is his second-lowest mark. He's averaging 8.3 assists per game, a drop of 2.5 from his league-leading mark a year ago.
There's still a lot of basketball left to be played this season, but in the first half, Phoenix did not resemble a title contender.
6. Trae Young can't shoot
At this point in his career, Trae Young was supposed to be one of the best 3-point scorers in the league. Well, the opposite is happening so far this season.
Out of the 35 players who have attempted at least 250 3s this season, Young ranks 33rd in 3-point percentage. Only Jordan Poole and Kelly Oubre Jr. have been less efficient. No one expected those guys to be generational shooting talents.
Young was expected to be, and it looked like he was on his way after shooting a career-high 38.2% from 3 last season. Instead, he's shooting a ghastly 32.5% from beyond the arc on 7.1 attempts per game. To put that in perspective, there have been 210 instances of a player averaging at least seven 3-point attempts per game -- Young's 32.5% shooting ranks 197th among those seasons.
Young and the Hawks made a surprising run to the Eastern Conference finals in 2021, but they've taken steps in the wrong direction since then. They lost in the first round last season after escaping the play-in, and this year -- after making a Gobert-like all-in trade for Dejounte Murray -- they're again languishing below .500 and in play-in position. Additionally, they've been an off-court soap opera. From the front office to the coaching staff to the roster, everywhere you look, you find drama. Trae Young and the Restless are far from contenders and Young's shooting numbers are more like Westbrook's than Curry's.
Matt Williams of ESPN Stats & Information contributed to this story.