What needs should NBA championship contenders look to fill leading into the Feb. 9 trade deadline?
Although midseason deals that truly swing the championship are rare, there is a recent example: The Toronto Raptors added the final piece to their title puzzle in 2019 by acquiring starting center Marc Gasol in February.
Meanwhile, trades or signings that help a contending team take the next step in the playoffs are much more common. Just last year, adding Derrick White at the trade deadline was a factor in the Boston Celtics reaching the NBA Finals, while the 2015 Cleveland Cavaliers made over much of their roster midseason en route to the first of their four consecutive Finals appearances.
This year is unusual because so many teams can plausibly consider themselves contenders. As a result, addressing a key weakness could be the difference between an early playoff exit and hoisting the Larry O'Brien trophy.
With that in mind, let's take a look at the teams among the top 12 in Caesars Sportsbook's NBA title odds and how each could improve via trade or a buyout signing.
Boston Celtics: Frontcourt depth
What do you get the team that has everything? Boston was able to survive playing the first two months of the season without center Robert Williams III and has enough depth that Payton Pritchard, a rotation player in last year's Finals run, has been on the fringes of it this season.
Williams' return has pushed Luke Kornet to a more appropriate role as fourth big and allowed Joe Mazzulla to ease back on Al Horford's minutes. The Celtics played OK with Blake Griffin on the court early in the season but still might benefit from adding another experienced veteran on the buyout market to fill the spot vacated by trading Noah Vonleh.
Brooklyn Nets: Rebounding
Pat Riley was wrong: Rebounding doesn't win rings. Champions since 1996-97 have, on average, ranked just outside the top 10 in defensive rebound percentage. The 2016-17 Golden State Warriors were the league's second-worst team in this stat, so it's not impossible for the Nets, currently 26th in this category and 29th in offensive rebounding, to overcome this weakness.
Still, as we look for ways Brooklyn can offset an inevitable shooting decline even after Kevin Durant's return to the lineup, rebounding is an obvious one. The challenge for the Nets is finding help on the glass without adding another non-shooter to the Nicolas Claxton-Ben Simmons duo. Stretch-5 Myles Turner would be an ideal upgrade for Brooklyn, and Chris Boucher of the Raptors is an interesting option who would be less costly in terms of salary and trade return.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Small forward
Of any contending team, Cleveland's small forwards might collectively be the weakest group. The Cavaliers have rotated through four starters at the 3, opening the season with Caris LeVert before trying Isaac Okoro, Lamar Stevens and Dean Wade (who's currently injured). None of the four has performed at an average level for a small forward.
Given Cleveland's plus-4.7 point differential is third-best in the league, the Cavaliers can reasonably aspire to a deep playoff run if they upgrade at small forward. Doing so will be difficult without any tradeable first-round picks after the Donovan Mitchell deal. Cleveland's best hope is that somebody values LeVert's scoring and they can flip him for a similar player who fits more naturally in a 3-and-D role next to Mitchell and Darius Garland.
Dallas Mavericks: More playmaking
Thus far, Luka Doncic has ably shouldered the extra shot creation duties created by Jalen Brunson's departure in free agency. Luka has boosted his usage rate to a career-high 39% while scoring more efficiently than ever and remaining strong in clutch situations. The problem comes when Doncic is out of the lineup. Dallas is 0-4 with a minus-10 point differential without Luka, all four on the back half of a back-to-back.
Given Luka hasn't played back-to-back games since early December, this is something the Mavericks will have to solve to maintain a top-four seed in the West. Having released Kemba Walker, Dallas may be hoping second-round pick Jaden Hardy can provide an in-house solution. The rookie guard was outstanding alongside Luka last week, scoring 15 points in back-to-back games, but couldn't keep it up with nine points on 2-of-8 shooting when Doncic sat out in a loss at Oklahoma City.
Denver Nuggets: Backup center?
Over the course of the season, this perhaps has been the NBA's biggest need. The Nuggets have outscored opponents by more than 300 points with two-time MVP Nikola Jokic on the court ... and have been outscored by nearly 200 points in the brief time he's rested.
With Zeke Nnaji supplanting DeAndre Jordan as Jokic's primary backup and coach Michael Malone finding a better mix of starters with his second unit, things have gotten better lately. Denver has managed to tread water with Jokic on the bench since mid-December, keying the team's surge in the standings. The Nuggets may still want to add another 7-footer via the buyout market -- particularly given the way injuries have limited Nnaji at times -- which would likely require trading Jordan to keep his salary from hitting the team's tax bill.
Golden State Warriors: Frontcourt depth
Warriors coach Steve Kerr recently lamented the minutes he's had to play frontcourt starters Draymond Green and Kevon Looney because of their importance to his team. Green is averaging 31 minutes per game, up more than two from last season, while Looney's 23 minutes per game would be a career high.
It's possible Golden State can handle this from within. The return of Stephen Curry should reduce the need for Kerr to keep both Green and Looney on the court as often, while Jonathan Kuminga and Anthony Lamb have stepped forward as solid reserves. Playing Lamb in the playoffs will require the Warriors to open a roster spot, as players on two-way contracts aren't eligible. If Golden State doesn't make a bigger move, trading JaMychal Green would allow the Warriors to promote Lamb to a full NBA contract.
LA Clippers: Point guard
By adding John Wall last summer, the Clippers believed they had solved their need for more playmaking. Although Wall has been solid off the bench, Reggie Jackson's poor play as the starter has kept point guard as a weakness for the Clippers.
Jackson's 14.7 points per 36 minutes are his lowest since his second NBA season, while his 3-point shooting (34%) remains below average. As a result, coach Tyronn Lue pulled Jackson from the starting lineup on Sunday and gave him a DNP-CD on Tuesday, when the Clippers beat the Mavericks at home.
Since Jackson is in the final season of his contract, he could be used as matching salary in a trade to upgrade at point guard. Alec Burks of the Detroit Pistons and Delon Wright of the Washington Wizards are players who could fit better with the Clippers.
Memphis Grizzlies: 3-point shooting
The updated version of the Riley quote is more like "No 3s, no rings." Starting with Riley's 2011-12 Heat, 10 of the past 11 champions have been in the top 10 in 3-point percentage. The 2019-20 Los Angeles Lakers, who shot somewhat better in the bubble, are the lone exception. That's a concern for Memphis, currently in the NBA's bottom 10 at 34% from beyond the arc.
The absence of sharpshooter Desmond Bane (40% on 3s) hasn't helped, and the Grizzlies could potentially get back Danny Green from an ACL tear in time for the postseason. Still, Memphis ought to seek out shooting help before the deadline. ESPN's Zach Lowe has pitched Malik Beasley, who ranks in the top 10 in 3s per game, as a possible addition.
Milwaukee Bucks: A healthy Khris Middleton
It's difficult to evaluate the Bucks' struggling offense because we haven't seen Middleton at full strength this season. Coming off wrist surgery last summer, Middleton played just seven games before being sidelined again. Without Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo's usage rate has ballooned to a career-high 39%, resulting in his lowest true shooting percentage (.588) since 2015-16.
That Milwaukee's offense has dropped off this far (25th in offensive rating, behind the Orlando Magic) is troubling, as is 34% team 3-point shooting. But it will be easier to put that performance in context if the Bucks can get Middleton back before the deadline.
New Orleans Pelicans: Playoff experience
I wouldn't say the Pelicans' roster is fully baked, but it's hard to find glaring needs. Yes, New Orleans is 27th in 3-point attempt rate, but this is more a product of how frequently the team scores in the paint than a shooting weakness. The percentages of shots outside the paint that are 3s for the Pelicans is right near the league average.
Having struck out elsewhere, the 217 combined career playoff games on New Orleans' roster are on the low side for a team that can aspire to go deep in the playoffs. (The same is true of Cleveland, with a combined 215 games.) If the Pelicans move reserve Jaxson Hayes ahead of his restricted free agency, they would be wise to fill the spot with a postseason-tested veteran.
Philadelphia 76ers: Tax relief
The Philadelphia roster isn't perfect, but it's short on weaknesses. The 76ers rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating. Yes, they're in the bottom 10 in offensive rebounding percentage, but that's a function of Doc Rivers' system, not the team's makeup. Even the backup center spot, so long a revolving door in Philadelphia, has been solidified by Montrezl Harrell. The 76ers have outscored opponents with Harrell on the court this season.
President of basketball operations Daryl Morey is always looking to upgrade his roster, and perhaps he'll find a bigger move worth making, but Philadelphia could feel comfortable merely trading away a veteran from the end of the bench to slide under the tax line this season.
Phoenix Suns: Better play from Deandre Ayton
Certainly, there's a trade for the Suns to make, if only to get something from the roster spot Jae Crowder has been occupying all season. Depth became a critical issue for Phoenix during a six-game losing streak snapped Tuesday night with a win against the Warriors. But with Devin Booker and Cam Johnson due back, adding rotation pieces will only mean so much for the Suns down the road.
For Phoenix to resume championship contention after reaching the 2021 NBA Finals and posting the league's best record last season requires a second star alongside Booker. Chris Paul may no longer be capable of playing at that level at age 37. The better bet is Ayton, whose per-game stats (17.5 PPG and 9.8 RPG on 59% shooting) don't reflect a drop-off in efficiency playing a larger role this season (his 23.5% usage is Ayton's highest since 2019-20).
In a league where all centers combine to average 16.6 points and 10.9 rebounds per 36 minutes with a .628 true shooting percentage, Ayton's own marks (21.3 points and 12.0 rebounds per 36, .619 TS%) are unspectacular. After matching the Indiana Pacers' max offer sheet to Ayton last summer, the Suns can reasonably expect more from the former No. 1 pick.