Where does the NBA's race to draft Victor Wembanyama stand at the season's halfway point?
Wednesday marks the midpoint of the 2022-23 schedule, with the typical team having played 41 of 82 regular-season games. That makes this a good time to revisit the competition for draft lottery positioning.
No team can guarantee the No. 1 pick and a chance to draft Wembanyama. The bottom three teams in the standings will have an equal chance at picking No. 1, so being among that group is the most important factor for teams dreaming of adding the 7-foot-4 French center's unique skill set to their lineup.
Beyond that top four, a handful of other teams will have a realistic chance to jump from their spot to the top pick. That's where the decisions will get more interesting, as teams that started faster than expected -- most notably the Indiana Pacers and Utah Jazz -- must decide by next month's trade deadline whether to prioritize a run at the playoffs or the lottery.
Let's break down all the teams in the running -- listed by their current draft order -- including the top lottery contenders and franchises with tough choices to make ahead of the Feb. 9 trade deadline.
The favorites
1. Houston Rockets (10-30)
Sadly, veteran guard Eric Gordon's lament that "there's been no improvement" by the Rockets over the course of the season seems accurate. Houston's .250 winning percentage is barely ahead of last season's 20-win pace despite another year of development for the team's young core and the addition of No. 3 pick Jabari Smith Jr. On the plus side, with the Rockets' 2024 pick headed to Oklahoma City unless it lands in the top four, this is the year for Houston to add another top draft pick to the puzzle.
2. Detroit Pistons (11-33)
Since a 3-15 start, Detroit has been a tad more competitive, with the return of veteran Alec Burks and improved play from 2020 lottery pick Killian Hayes compensating for the loss of 2021 top pick Cade Cunningham to season-ending leg surgery. The Pistons could make a run at the league's worst record if they trade Burks, who has a team option for 2023-24, or veteran forward Bojan Bogdanovic. Burks and Bogdanovic have been Detroit's two best players this season.
3. Charlotte Hornets (11-31)
The Hornets are the surprise team at the bottom of the standings after winning 43 games and making the play-in tournament last season. The absence of Miles Bridges, who remains unsigned after pleading no contest to a felony domestic violence charge as part of a deal that avoided jail time, was exacerbated by injuries that have sidelined LaMelo Ball and Gordon Hayward for about half of Charlotte's games this season. Even with Ball healthy, the Hornets are just 5-12, suggesting they're unlikely to play their way out of this group before turning their attention to 2023-24.
4. San Antonio Spurs (13-28)
The 13 wins the Spurs have managed are remarkable given they rank 28th in offensive rating and last on defense. San Antonio's minus-8.6 point differential is easily the league's worst, indicating the Spurs are more likely to move closer to the top of the lottery race than fall out of the top four spots. San Antonio could accelerate the process by trading some of its veterans, most notably starting center Jakob Poeltl, who will be an unrestricted free agent next summer.
The promising young teams
5. Orlando Magic (16-26)
After starting 5-16, Orlando has been around .500 since guard Markelle Fultz made his season debut, which came at the same time Cole Anthony returned from injury. The Magic's six-game winning streak last month was the product of aberrant opponent shooting, but now that Orlando has paired better guard play with an exciting young frontcourt of Paolo Banchero, Bol Bol and Franz Wagner, the Magic aren't likely to finish among the league's bottom four teams.
More help could be on the way, with ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reporting Tuesday that Jonathan Isaac -- who hasn't played since an ACL tear in the bubble back in August 2020 -- is expected to play his first rehab game in the G League on Wednesday.
7. Oklahoma City Thunder (18-23)
With guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander playing at an All-NBA level and a defense ranked just outside the NBA's top 10 on a per-possession basis, the Thunder are much closer to the play-in tournament than the bottom four in the standings. Oklahoma City will surely be cautious with minor injuries down the stretch, but most likely the Thunder's most promising rookie in 2023-24 will be 2022 No. 2 pick Chet Holmgren returning from a Lisfranc injury.
Time to pick a direction
6. Washington Wizards (17-24)
The Wizards haven't picked higher than ninth since 2013, resisting the siren call of late-season losses. The end of the 2021-22 campaign was a good example. Washington went 5-5 in the last 10 games, sliding behind the Los Angeles Lakers -- who had already traded their pick -- in the draft order. But now, seven games below .500, the Wizards might not have much choice but to trade impending free agent Kyle Kuzma and look ahead to 2023-24.
8. Toronto Raptors (18-23)
As ESPN's Tim Bontemps explained earlier this week, this is a pivotal stretch for Toronto. Given higher expectations for the Raptors, a playoff team last season, it's still reasonable to believe they can be competitive this year. After all, Toronto's point differential ranks seventh in the East, ahead of four teams higher in the standings. At the same time, the Raptors might be wise to deal impending free agents Gary Trent Jr. and Fred VanVleet in pursuit of another young player to add to their core.
Wait, weren't you tanking?
13. Utah Jazz (21-23)
22. Indiana Pacers (23-18)
It's hard to believe the Pacers were tied with San Antonio for the lowest over/under win total (22.5) at Caesars Sportsbook entering the season, while the Jazz (23.5) were tied with the Rockets for third. Indiana has already hit the over, becoming the earliest team to do so since the 2013-14 Phoenix Suns reached their 20.5-win total in the 34th game of the season.
Although the Pacers are a few wins better and in sixth place rather than 10th, FiveThirtyEight's projections actually give both teams at least a 50% chance of reaching the playoffs, a product of higher preseason expectations for Utah's roster and the Jazz's superior point differential.
The records could still matter for determining how each team approaches the trade deadline. Indiana will be hard-pressed to get into the top eight or nine and have a reasonable chance at Wembanyama. With two high-level young guards on the roster in Tyrese Haliburton and 2022 lottery pick Bennedict Mathurin, the Pacers shouldn't necessarily feel like they need to add elite talent through the draft.
The story is slightly different for Utah, which is at a pivot point just out of the West play-in but also not far from a bottom-eight record. If the Jazz trade their older veteran starters, Mike Conley and Kelly Olynyk, there's still enough time to end up not too far in the standings from what was expected.