This week we focus on something wrong in Atlanta, the two-way growth of Utah's new All-Star, how the Washington Wizards are satisfying their play-in cravings and the horrors of the Houston Rockets' defense.
1. Lauri Markkanen is doing everything
You keep waiting for the slump -- for reality to slap Markkanen in the face, to remind him how he disappointed with the Chicago Bulls, that he never hinted he could survive as the No. 1 option.
It appears you can stop waiting. Markkanen keeps doing this, keeps looking self-assured even as defenses throw everything at him. He is averaging 24.5 points on better than 50-40 shooting -- including a mammoth 61% on 2s. Over his last 11 games, Markkanen has poured in 30.5 points and gotten to the line almost nine times per game. He has (at worst) a very strong All-Star case. He might be a lock. Utah is plus-5 per 100 possessions with Markkanen on the floor and minus-6.8 when he sits. He is the keystone of a strange roster constructed ad hoc from the remnants of mega-trades.
Marrkanen's game has bloomed outward from the threat of his 3-pointer off pindowns, pick-and-pops, and other sets; after his jumper floundered early in his career, Markkanen is above 40% from deep for the second time in three seasons.
Switch those actions, and Markkanen can mash smaller guys in the post; Utah has averaged 1.2 points directly out of Markkanen post-ups -- 10th among 83 players with at least 20 post touches, per Second Spectrum. He twirls into quick baseline moves, and uses his long arms to flick the ball in from odd angles:
If Markkanen sees the switch coming, he'll spin and pivot under it -- burrowing inside for layups:
His face-up game might be even better, and he has variations for defenders of any size: power moves against small guys, finesse against behemoths. Markkanen has scored 1.27 points out of isolations -- No. 1 among players with at least 60 isos, per Second Spectrum.
He is grinding on defense, too. Playing small forward with the Cleveland Cavaliers helped Markkanen learn to slide his feet against faster guys -- handy for switches:
He'll sometimes guard centers, and has improved going vertical to protect the rim.
Utah traded two All-Stars and already found a new one.
2. Atlanta's transition defense as a window
The Atlanta Hawks transition defense has evaporated over the last six weeks, mirroring the malaise and drama that has overtaken the franchise. The Hawks are 27th in fast-break points allowed since Dec. 1, a stretch in which they are 7-12. Over 16% of their opponents' possessions in that span have come in transition -- the largest share in the league, per Cleaning The Glass.
The Hawks have been especially vulnerable after rebounds. To some degree, that is baked into their spread pick-and-roll structure: Trae Young drives, screen-setters roll to the rim, and shooters stand in the corners -- leaving four players below the foul line when a shot goes up.
In that alignment, everyone's first step back has to be urgent. There is no time to gawk at shots, whine to refs, or loiter in case the rebound bounces your way.
The Hawks have been sloppy with all that. There is no urgency, little attention to detail. Their defense overall has slipped, and their offense hasn't been strong enough to compensate; Atlanta is 22nd in points per possession -- stunning impotence considering their all-in play for Dejounte Murray and the centrality of Young's scoring and passing.
Something feels wrong. The trade deadline is four weeks away.
3. Markelle Fultz's story isn't over
Three years ago, Fultz was a bust -- the draft-day wager that derailed The Process. More than that, he was a curiosity: How had he forgotten to shoot? Was it an injury? Did he have the yips? The Philadelphia 76ers gave up, and shipped Fultz to the Orlando Magic for a late first-round pick that became Tyrese Maxey.
In the anonymity of Orlando, Fultz played intermittently. He dabbled in long 2s, but he was choosy, his release slow and uncertain. Then he tore his ACL. He seemed destined to fade away -- a mysterious cautionary tale.
But Fultz fought for his career, and now he is getting it back. He is still fast and athletic, with rare ability to change speed within dribbles. (He reminds me of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in that way.) Without a reliable jumper, Fultz had to learn quirkier methods of getting what he wants. He has turned the recesses of the court -- the corners and the baseline -- into his workshop:
Rajon Rondo was a master at that: If teams went under middle pick-and-rolls, he'd shift to the sidelines, where defenses were more likely to go over screens and push him toward the coffin corner. But that gives Fultz a runway -- a short runway to a tight spot, but a runway nonetheless.
He has an array of tricky finishes with either hand. He might slow almost to a stop, and then quick-shoot on the way up before shot-blockers realize what he's up to. Next time down, he might lull the defense with the same kind of deceleration and then burst upward at full force for a power layup. He even has a nascent post game.
The jumper is recovering. Fultz is at 45% on mid-rangers. He shoots 3s now -- and more corner 3s off passes from Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero. Fultz's release is still a bit slow. Defenses concede jumpers and clog everything else.
But Fultz is just 24. There is a pathway to him becoming a viable starting point guard on a good team. I'm not sure I'd bet on that yet, but there was no such pathway a year ago. If he can hit enough mid-rangers at higher volume, there is hope. And given where Fultz was, that is something to pause and admire.
4. What Joe Ingles brings to the Milwaukee Bucks
Sometimes you don't realize how much a team is missing one skill until they find a player who has it. The Milwaukee Bucks are not a great passing team at full strength, let alone with Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday out for chunks of the season. Entry passes are an adventure.
What a relief it has been to introduce Joe Ingles -- tall, gutsy, anticipatory -- into this ecosystem.
That looks simple, but it requires touch, precision, and the confidence to get it over that trap and have it arrive to Giannis Antetokounmpo before Corey Kispert's help rotation. (That's a nice recovery and pass from MarJon Beauchamp. Mike Budenholzer has decided to rest veterans and invest minutes in young players -- particularly Beauchamp. That brings inevitable hiccups, but it may be worth it with Beauchamp. He's up to 33% from deep, and brings bounce and length the Bucks need.)
Antetokounmpo is starving for someone to hit him in crowds. Ingles and Antetokounmpo have nice chemistry already. Their right wing pick-and-roll -- with no other Bucks on that side of the floor -- catapults Antetokounmpo as a lob threat.
Ingles looks like himself after recovering from a torn ACL. He has closed some games already. His bravado is intact; his trash-talking at fans is in postseason form.
Milwaukee is 18-15 since their 9-0 start. They're 26th in points per possession. In trying to right the ship, Antetokounmpo sometimes forces jumpers; he's shooting 28% on mid-rangers and 25% from deep. There is frustration in several corners internally, but it appears to be the kind of mid-season angst that winning and health solve.
If Middelton is still hurt in a month and the offense is sputtering, Milwaukee might have issues. Until then, they deserve the benefit of the doubt.
5. Jaren Jackson Jr., bully scorer
Early in Jackson's career, his offense outpaced his defense. Jackson in his second season hit 39% from deep, and looked like the rare big who could shoot 3s both off the catch and off the dribble -- even while flying around pindowns.
A meniscus tear ended that season early and vaporized most of 2020-21. He returned a more fearsome defender, but his jumper went awry. Jackson hit just 29% from deep in that abbreviated campaign, and 32% last season. He fell to 47.6% on 2s. His one-on-one game was stilted.
It's all coalescing now, Jackson and the audacious Grizzlies rising together -- tied for No. 1 in the West, on an eight-game winning streak. Jackson is up to 37% from deep and 60% on 2s. His interior game is still brutish, all pointy elbows and jagged step-throughs, but results trump aesthetics:
The Grizzlies have been more diligent feeding Jackson against size mismatches. They have scored 1.15 points directly out of Jackson's isolations -- 26th among 217 players who have recorded at least 20 isos, per Second Spectrum. Only eight of those 217 guys have drawn shooting fouls via isolations more often than Jackson.
On a per-minute basis, Jackson has been perhaps the league's best defender. He leads the league with 3.2 blocks per game and 4.4 per 36 minutes -- putting him on pace to be just the fifth player since 2010 to crack the 4-per-36-minute threshold. He has blocked 11% of opponent 2-point shots while on the floor. That would be an all-time record over a full season, per Basketball-Reference.
Alongside Steven Adams, Jackson is an all-court menace. The Grizz stick him on so-so shooting wings, and let him roam. He appears to be everywhere at once, traversing 20 feet in a blink to inhale some unsuspecting victim's shot before it is even released.
Jackson's speed and length allow him to break the normal rules of time on those rotations. He begins them at a moment that would be too late for most defenders -- a point by which shooters have dismissed the possibility of anyone outside their immediate radius bothering them. They don't see Jackson rampaging toward them, and therefore don't see the passing lanes Jackson exposes in his wake.
When Brandon Clarke replaces Adams, Jackson often shifts to a traditional rim protector role. He's no longer lurking off to the side. He's right there, sneering, daring you to encroach. Opponents are shooting 42.6% at the rim with Jackson nearby, by far the lowest mark among all big man defenders, per NBA.com. The Clarke-Jackson tag-team is a mainstay. Only silly fouls are holding Jackson back from a Defensive Player of the Year trophy.
For years, Jackson has been the common denominator in the Grizzlies best lineups. Memphis with Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and this version of Jackson have a championship foundation -- now and for years to come.
6. Kyle Anderson, bully scorer?
The Minnesota Timberwolves are 10-11 without Karl-Anthony Towns this season, but 9-6 in such games in which Anderson plays. Anderson is a gap-filler who makes everyone around him better -- all extra passes, smart cuts, "yoink" pick-pocket steals, and multi-positional defense. He is the bridge connecting Minnesota's score-first perimeter guys and Rudy Gobert.
Opponents often treat Anderson as a non-threat, hiding weaker defenders on him. In select doses, the Wolves can exploit that. Feed Anderson, and let him discard undersized defenders with his patented mix of length and decelerating slowness:
Anderson is a slick interior passer who can see over defenders. Gobert requires pinpoint lobs; Anderson supplies them.
Anderson is a reluctant 3-point shooter. Defenders ignore him on the perimeter. I thought he'd work better in lineups with Towns at center -- and Gobert on the bench. With Towns injured, the Wolves can't be so picky.
The Wolves have outscored opponents by almost 10 points per 100 possessions when Anderson and Gobert play without Towns. Anderson's languid, lanky game sings in tight confines -- a reminder that smarts and vision can compensate for so-so spacing (at least in the regular-season.). Anderson is averaging a career-best 5.3 dimes per 36 minutes. He's even 17-of-41 on 3s!
The 20-22 Wolves would be in a deeper hole without Slow-Mo.
7. Every good team needs a Naji Marshall
Marshall is how you stick in the top-3 of the West despite your three best players missing games. Marshall projected to be at the back of the New Orleans Pelicans rotation, but he has logged heavy minutes -- including 14 starts -- filling in at almost every position.
Marshall is a snarling high-energy jack-of-all-trades. He does everything hard, with an edge. He zooms into dribble hand-offs, and can manufacture offense as a secondary ball-handler; Marshall is a nifty passer with a workable floater. He is a marauder in transition. He gets to the rim a lot, and even misses at the rim are good for one of the league's nastiest offensive-rebounding teams.
Marshall hits enough 3s to keep defenses honest -- including 38% from the corners.
He can defend point guards, wings, and power forwards -- even perimeter-oriented centers. He is uncanny slithering around screens unscathed. When Herbert Jones Jr. went down with an injury in Washington on Monday, the Pelicans -- already without Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram -- needed someone to defend Kristaps Porzingis. They shifted Marshall from Kyle Kuzma onto Porzingis, and sacrificed nothing.
Marshall has started the Pelicans last five games, and averaged 20 points.
The Pelicans plucked Marshall on a two-way contract in Dec. 2020 and then re-upped him on a three-year, $3.4 million deal. Marshall has outplayed that contract, and earned a long-term spot in the NBA.
8. Houston's broken defense
All the focus on the Houston Rockets unsightly offense -- 29th in points per possession, most turnovers, 26th in assist rate, No. 1 in "wait, is Kevin Porter Jr. still dribbling?" possessions -- has obscured how broken they are on defense. Houston is 28th in points allowed per possession, though they don't appear in danger of pulling the rare double of finishing 30th on both ends -- a.k.a "Bobcatting."
Offense and defense interact. Gagging away turnovers kneecaps your transition defense; Houston is 30th in opponent fast-break points and transition chances. They've lost track of their floor balance on misses too:
It's hard to play worse transition defense than that. Porter Jr. shoots (because of course), and both Tari Eason (who is good!) and Garrison Mathews crash from the top of the arc -- leaving Houston's back line naked. (Houston is No. 1 in offensive rebounding rate, but at what cost?) Porter then lets Taurean Prince run by him while pointing to an imaginary teammate to defend Prince.
Their off-ball defense in the half-court is a mess. A lot of that is youth; Porter and Jalen Green get turned around -- often literally, spinning and facing the wrong direction -- rotating on defense.
That's expected. But man, it's ugly.
Porter and Jabari Smith Jr. (who will be a solid two-way player) stand next to each other in the paint, and then rotate together to the same shooter -- leaving Jaden McDaniels an easy corner 3. Houston allows more 3s than any team.
Stephen Silas and Houston's coaching staff had no realistic means of turning this into a coherent team this season. The roster is too inexperienced. Chemistry is off. But they need to show growth soon.
9. Washington's twin towers
How many horcruxes are left holding together this rickety Washington Wizards season?
The Wiz are 8-17 in their last 25 games, but they always seem to scrounge timely wins -- including a recent five-game streak -- to sustain their insatiable play-in cravings. They could easily limbo under the Magic for the No. 5 spot in the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes, though busting the top-4 would require un-Wizardian commitment to the tank.
They've discovered something fun and effective in the unconventional Daniel Gafford- Porzingis double-center combination. The Wiz are plus-70 in 155 minutes with those two on the floor, and it doesn't seem totally fluky -- even if the postseason (stop laughing) would be a different story.
Porzingis can hang outside, leaving Gafford to jostle in the paint. Defenses respond in kind: centers on Gafford, speedier wings and power forwards chasing Porzingis -- plus copious switching against Porzingis in the pick-and-roll. Porzingis is punishing those switches:
Porzingis has never played with such decisiveness. There is less wasted time and motion -- no holding and scanning without purpose, fewer jab-steps and fakes to nowhere. The Wizards have scored 1.28 points per possession on trips featuring a Porzingis post touch -- 17th among 83 players with at least 20 post-ups, and easily the best mark of Porzingis's career.
Note how Brook Lopez abandons Gafford to rescue Jevon Carter from the Porzingis matchup. That forces Pat Connaughton to rotate onto Gafford -- gifting Gafford an advantage on the glass if Porzingis misses. Gafford is a ferocious offensive rebounder, and the Wizards have monopolized the boards in their twin towers minutes; they've vacuumed in 36% of their own misses and almost 85% of available defensive rebounds -- marks that would lead the league by miles.
In non-center news, Deni Avdija (20 rebounds on Wednesday!), Corey Kispert, and Rui Hachimura have played well for most of the last month; Hachimura is in the middle of the best stretch of his career.
10. Faking the most annoying shot in basketball to get a better one
The never-ending increase in 3s has never bothered me, with one glaring exception: every player giving themselves carte blanche to jack pull-up 3s in transition when simple fast-break basketball would generate layups.
This hoggery should be reserved for the best pull-up shooters. Beyond that, it's a perversion of both analytics and old-school basketball.
This blight is so pervasive, smart ball handlers are now faking the pull-up triple to see if they can bait the last line of defense into lurching outside -- unlocking layups:
What a delight. Jamal Murray gathers at the arc, and Anfernee Simons pauses just long enough for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to scoot behind him.
Cole Anthony pulls the same gambit, but Patrick Baldwin Jr. stands his ground and Mo Wagner blows the finish.
Another alternative is to just keep dribbling, but I'll take this cat-and-mouse game over long-distance gluttony.