Which side is taking the bigger risk with the Phoenix Suns and center Deandre Ayton ending talks on a contract extension ahead of Monday's deadline?
ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported Monday that talks were off between Ayton's representatives and the Suns, who remained unwilling to offer Ayton a max deal valued at a projected $172 million over five years as the 6 p.m. ET deadline for rookie extensions approached.
With Ayton set to become the first No. 1 pick to hit restricted free agency after his rookie contract expires since injury-plagued 2007 top pick Greg Oden, both sides are taking risks. Ayton is gambling his value won't decline after it reached its peak during a strong postseason run, with Phoenix making it to the NBA Finals. Meanwhile, the Suns are hoping that deciding not to extend Ayton won't have long-term ramifications that eventually push him out of Phoenix.
Taking into account a market where production at center has been available at relatively cheap prices, let's break down the risks for both sides in the wake of Ayton heading toward restricted free agency.
Ayton's value peaked in the playoffs
This time a year ago, a max extension for Ayton would probably have been viewed as the Suns overpaying to justify their decision to draft the center No. 1 overall in 2018, two picks ahead of Dallas Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic.
Although Ayton had taken important strides defensively in his second season, his offensive game remained a question. Ayton's 18.7 points per game came with a .568 true shooting percentage, about league-average overall but much weaker than the typical center (.600).
When Phoenix went 8-0 during the NBA's bubble restart of the 2019-20 season, Ayton wasn't a key factor on offense. His scoring average declined to 15 PPG in the eight seeding games and the Suns had a better net rating with Ayton on the bench, per NBA Advanced Stats.
That run set the table for Phoenix to add veteran point guard Chris Paul and shift from development mode into surprise contenders.
Paul's arrival clarified things for Ayton offensively. Instead of creating for himself frequently in the post or operating at the elbow, Ayton evolved into primarily a pick-and-roll finisher. Ayton's rate of on-ball screens per possession increased 30%, according to Second Spectrum tracking, and his 2-point accuracy jumped from 55% in 2019-20 to 64% last season.
Though Ayton's new role was a much better fit for the Suns' offense, it was also somewhat replaceable. His offensive stats last season were similar to those put up by former Paul pick-and-roll partner Clint Capela of the Atlanta Hawks, who recently extended his contract for two years and $43 million plus an additional $4 million in incentives -- far from max territory.
During the playoffs, Ayton distinguished himself from centers of Capela's ilk with his ability to punish switching defenses. That threat prevented the LA Clippers from starting their matchup against the Suns in the conference finals with the smaller lineups lacking traditional centers that had helped them upset the top-seeded Utah Jazz. Overall, the Clippers switched just 11% of picks set by Ayton in their series according to Second Spectrum, as compared to 30% of picks against Utah center Rudy Gobert.
Breaking down key rookie extensions across the NBA
Ayton's risk: Will there be a max market next summer?
If Ayton can maintain his level of play from the 2021 playoffs, a max offer sheet from another team likely awaits next summer -- one that would be less palatable for Phoenix. It could potentially give Ayton a player option to test unrestricted free agency after just two seasons in addition to a trade bonus and frontloaded payments. The Brooklyn Nets specialized in such predatory offer sheets early in Sean Marks' tenure as GM, signing Allen Crabbe, Tyler Johnson and Otto Porter Jr. to deals that their original teams eventually matched.
Those offers, however, came in a different and slower-moving market. The risk in signing a restricted free agent to an offer sheet is that it can tie up a team's cap space for days at the start of free agency. Offer sheets can't be signed until the moratorium ends, and then the Suns would have 48 hours to decide whether to match, during which the team making an offer to Ayton would be unable to guarantee that money to other free agents.
Because so many moves are now completed in the opening hours of free agency, offer sheets have become less of a weapon. No team signed a single restricted free agent to an offer sheet this summer, with the handful of players who moved via restricted free agency all doing so in sign-and-trade deals that required the agreement of their former team. Certainly, Phoenix won't be willing to participate.
As a result, Ayton's production has to be so clearly worth more than the max that another team wants to help him reach unrestricted free agency as soon as possible. If no team is willing to make Ayton an offer that will inevitably be matched by Phoenix, he'd lose substantial leverage in his negotiations.
The Suns can also take the possibility of a shorter offer sheet off the table by giving Ayton the rarely seen "maximum qualifying offer" -- made just once since it was introduced, by the Chicago Bulls to Jimmy Butler as a restricted free agent in 2015. The maximum qualifying offer would guarantee Ayton a full five-year max if he wants it while forcing any offer sheet to be a minimum of three years, not counting options.
The Suns' risk: Hastening Ayton's departure
Barring something unforeseen, Ayton will be part of the Suns in 2022-23. It's down the road that his future gets murkier with no extension.
The most extreme option available for Ayton would be accepting his one-year qualifying offer as a restricted free agent. That would be unprecedented for a player as valuable as Ayton, but the increased salary in the new collective bargaining agreement makes it more realistic for Ayton than his predecessors. As the No. 1 overall pick, he'd be guaranteed $16.4 million on a one-year deal before hitting unrestricted free agency in 2023 just ahead of his 25th birthday.
More likely, Ayton's unhappiness with Phoenix's unwillingness to commit will come into play on his third contract. We saw this play out with Gordon Hayward, who did not agree to an extension with the Utah Jazz in 2013 before developing into a key starter. Hayward signed an offer sheet with Charlotte that the Jazz matched, but the player option in that deal allowed him to become an unrestricted free agent after three years. At that time, fresh off an All-Star appearance, Hayward signed a max deal with the Boston Celtics.
The question the Suns really had to ask during their negotiations with Ayton, then, is how valuable he'll be on his next contract. The evidence there is conflicting. On the one hand, Ayton's youth means he'll still be in his prime at that point. Even if Phoenix ends up signing Ayton to a full five-year deal with no player option, Ayton would still be entering his age-29 season when he reached unrestricted free agency.
At the same time, centers have seen their value decline more quickly than players at other positions as their athleticism becomes less of an advantage. Consider Andre Drummond, who went from a max rookie extension to taking an offer for the veteran's minimum at age 28 from the Philadelphia 76ers at the extension's conclusion this summer.
Ayton's skill gives him a higher baseline of production than Drummond, but the odds that Ayton will be worth more than his third contract seem low given the way teams tend to regret many of those deals to players in their 30s. I don't think that's a justification for maxing Ayton ahead of time without attempting to negotiate.
Verdict: The Suns are taking the bigger gamble
Ultimately, I think there's a better chance than not that the NBA market views Ayton as a max player next summer. That means there are two possible ways Phoenix can lose the bet on not extending Ayton right now -- either by him signing a short-term offer sheet with another team or by taking the one-year qualifying offer.
If the Suns' reluctance to offer Ayton the max is actually a product of owner Robert Sarver's willingness to spend, I suppose Ayton playing for the smaller qualifying offer wouldn't be such a bad thing. It would allow Phoenix to potentially duck the luxury tax in 2022-23 before dealing with Ayton's unrestricted free agency.
Given the Suns' willingness to extend forward Mikal Bridges at the market rate, however, I suspect this is more about not wanting to overreact to Ayton's playoff run. I think Phoenix hopes to eventually get him to take a slight discount from the max that better reflects Ayton's production over his full first three seasons as a pro.
There's certainly a scenario where Ayton duplicates his 2020-21 regular season. Still, I don't think it was worth the risk of Ayton playing well and getting an offer sheet or simply calling the Suns' bluff by taking the qualifying offer.