The 2021 NBA offseason featured a historic number of contract extensions being signed, which will have a domino effect on the landscape of free agency in the future.
In total, 12 players signed veteran extensions, including All-Stars Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Joel Embiid, Jimmy Butler and Julius Randle.
Two more All-Stars in Luka Doncic and Trae Young joined the above group when they agreed to rookie max extensions in the early part of free agency.
Now the deadline for 2018 first-round picks to sign extensions is in the rearview mirror. Those players who were not extended -- a group that includes No. 1 overall pick Deandre Ayton -- will enter the 2021-22 regular season on the last year of their existing contracts, looking to prove themselves worthy of big money next summer, when ESPN is projecting teams like the Detroit Pistons, Orlando Magic and San Antonio Spurs to have at least $30 million in cap space.
So what's next for the fourth-year players who didn't get extensions, and the handful of veterans who still might at some point this season?
MORE: Breaking down the latest rookie contract extensions
2018 first-round picks
Before the offseason began, we pegged the 2018 first-round draft class as the $1 billion club. With so many high-profile names, including Doncic and Young, it was easy to envision this group of players passing the billion-dollar mark in rookie extension money.
The 2018 first-round class eventually got there, but it took some compromises from the non-max players to nudge the total over that line. For example, the Phoenix Suns and Mikal Bridges reached agreement on a four-year, $90 million extension on Sunday, a day before the deadline. Bridges secured a $20 million salary in 2022-23 that ranks in the top 10 of small forwards but did not get a player option in the last year of the contract. Wendell Carter Jr. of the Magic agreed to a $50 million extension over four seasons that starts high ($14 million) and declines in each season. And finally, Jaren Jackson Jr. signed a $105 million extension in Memphis that starts near the maximum allowed and declines in annual salary each season. The contract also has an Exhibit 3 Prior Injury Exclusion that protects the Grizzlies if Jackson suffers a serious left knee injury. Since the 2019-20 season, the forward has missed a total of 75 games because of his left knee.
Here are the rookie extension contracts for the class of 2018:
No. 3: Luka Doncic (DAL): 5 years, $207.1 million
No. 4: Jaren Jackson (MEM): 4 years, $105 million
No. 5: Trae Young (ATL): 5 years, $172.5 million
No. 7: Wendell Carter Jr. (ORL): 4 years, $50 million
No. 10: Mikal Bridges (PHX): 4 years, $90 million
No. 11: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC): 5 years, $172.5 million
No. 14: Michael Porter Jr. (DEN): 5 years, $172.5 million
No. 19: Kevin Huerter (ATL): 4 years, $65 million
No. 21: Grayson Allen (MIL): 2 years, $20 million
No. 24: Landry Shamet (PHX): 4 years, $43 million
No. 27: Robert Williams III (BOS): 4 years, $54 million
The 11 rookie extensions are the most signed for one draft class, and the combined value of the deals is more than any previous draft class received in its extensions.
The players who didn't sign extensions this year will enter a 2022 free-agency market where the salary cap is projected to increase from $112.4 to $119 million.
MORE: Complete list of 2022 and 2023 NBA free agents
Deandre Ayton
Despite signing Chris Paul, Cameron Payne, Mikal Bridges and Landry Shamet, the Suns missed an opportunity when they failed to come to terms on an extension with Ayton, who will now be a restricted free agent next summer. Phoenix will be able to match any offer sheet Ayton receives from an opposing team.
"Fortunately they're both restricted free agents [meaning Ayton and the now-signed Bridges] too. So we start with that. That kind of gives us the upper hand in dealing with them and being first to talk with them and how that goes," owner Robert Sarver told the Burns & Gambo show on Arizona Sports radio after the season.
In addition to retaining match rights on Ayton, there is a belief that the Suns will have an advantage in re-signing him over the summer because of the lack of leaguewide spending power. However, since 2019 there have been 26 sign-and-trade deals, including the Chicago Bulls acquiring both Lonzo Ball and DeMar DeRozan in separate sign-and-trade moves in August, proving that teams without cap space can still find creative ways to lure a player away from his previous team.
Ayton is considered the top free-agent center and the Suns will pay a high premium, either by matching an offer sheet or by giving Ayton a new contract outright.
The playoffs showed why the Suns should have invested in Ayton for five additional seasons. The center averaged 16.0 points, 12.1 rebounds and shot 67.6% from the field in the postseason. He had 15 double-doubles, including a 19-point, 22-rebound performance in a Game 4 win against the LA Clippers. Ayton's improvement on the defensive end was a big reason the Suns went from 17th in defensive efficiency in 2019-20 to sixth in 2020-21.
Sarver made it known after the NBA Finals that finances would not get in the way of keeping this team together.
"That's gonna come with the territory here," Sarver said of paying the luxury tax soon. "I don't know if that's next season [2021-22] or the one after that [2022-23], but we know it's coming. We see ourselves as a taxpayer, and that's just part of what it's gonna take to bring home a championship."
The Suns are not a luxury-tax team this season and are projected to receive $13.1 million from teams over the tax. The last time they paid a tax penalty was the 2009-10 season. As for the future, the Suns are $13 million below the tax next season and catch a break with a projected $9 million increase in the tax threshold: $136.6 to $145 million.
The following year, the Suns have only $88 million in guaranteed contracts; the contracts for both Paul and Payne are not fully guaranteed. A new contract for Devin Booker also would not start until the 2024-25 season.
Still, the Suns have to hope that the stalled negotiation with Ayton does not have a lingering effect on the team this season.
"I love Phoenix, but I'm really disappointed we haven't really gotten a deal done yet," Ayton told the Arizona Republic during training camp. "We were two wins away from winning a championship and I just really want to be respected, to be honest. To be respected like my peers are being respected by their teams."
If the Suns play hardball, Ayton could do something no No. 1 pick has done since rookie-scale contracts were implemented: sign the one-year qualifying offer, and become an unrestricted free agent in 2023. The $16.4 million qualifying offer for Ayton will be the largest in league history, though still only about half of what Ayton's max salary would be in 2022-23.
MORE: The Ayton-Suns impasse is a massive gamble for both sides
There was guarded optimism before training camp started that Cleveland and Sexton could agree to a long-term extension before the start of the season.
"We love him, we want him here long-term," GM Koby Altman said of Sexton. "We'll deal with that sort of behind closed doors, but the feelings are mutual in terms of something long-term."
The failure to reach an agreement is a good example of the challenges of negotiating an extension for a player who is not viewed as a max candidate.
The doubters will point to Sexton as an undersized shooting guard who has compiled a 60-159 record in his first three seasons. To be fair, the Cavaliers have had four head coaches and an ever-changing roster in Sexton's time in Cleveland.
Sexton's believers see him as a dynamic borderline All-Star who is coming off a 2020-21 where he averaged a career high in points (24.3), field goal percentage (47.5%) and assists (4.3).
"He has something inside him that makes him want to be great," head coach JB Bickerstaff said. "If he was just playing pickup, or at the park, he'd be doing the same thing so he could be the best player at the park. Obviously, we live in a world where they get paid to do this. But his drive is internal to be better than everybody else. And that's why he puts the work in. And that's what we expect him to continue to do this year and moving forward."
The narrative that the Cavaliers painted themselves into a financial corner with the $178 million combined contracts of Jarrett Allen, Lauri Markkanen and the $30 million still owed to Kevin Love next season is false. The Cavaliers will not be in the luxury tax for the foreseeable future. The deciding factor will not come down to finances but if they view Sexton as a player they can build a playoff team around.
MORE: Darius Garland and Zach Lowe's most intriguing players
Other players not extended: Marvin Bagley III (Sacramento), Miles Bridges (Charlotte), Troy Brown Jr. (Chicago), Donte DiVincenzo (Milwaukee), Kevin Knox II (New York), Mo Bamba (Orlando), Lonnie Walker IV (San Antonio), Anfernee Simons (Portland) and Aaron Holiday (Washington).
Veteran extension candidates
Before we take a deep dive into the veterans who are extension eligible up until June 30, there were 20 extension-eligible players, including James Harden, who failed to reach an agreement by the 11:59 p.m. ET Oct. 18 deadline.
Those players are now ineligible to sign an extension until July 1 because they have two years left on their contract (including this season).
Harden was in a unique situation because an extension required him to opt in to his $47.4 million contract in 2022-23. Unlike teammate Kyrie Irving, Harden was not allowed to decline his player option as part of an extension deal, because the starting salary in the first year of the extension would have been for less than the option.
Before training camp started, Harden told ESPN's Brian Windhorst that the priority for him was playing on a team that can compete for a championship.
"It's not about the money for me," Harden said. "I've been on enough teams where we fell short. So my mindset and my goal is to make sure we're able to build and continue to build this team to be able to compete as a team for multiple, multiple years at the highest level. Win a championship in New York, the money will come."
However, bypassing an extension now allows Harden to opt in to his $47.4 million contract for 2022-23 and sign a four-year, $223 million extension at the start of free agency next summer.
Harden would earn $61.8 million in the last year of the extension and become the first player to surpass $60 million in one year.
Indiana Pacers guard Malcolm Brogdon agreed to a two-year, $45 million extension on Monday. Because Brogdon's contract exceeds three seasons (two years on his existing deal, plus the two new years), Brogdon is ineligible to be traded this season.
Bradley Beal and Kyrie Irving did not have an Oct. 18 deadline and are eligible to sign an extension up until June 30.
Bradley Beal
From a purely financial perspective, Beal should play out the season and not sign an extension.
Beal will reach 10 years of service in 2022 and as a result can sign an extension worth 35% of the salary cap. A four-year extension that starts in 2022-23 -- replacing his $36.4 million player option -- would have a starting salary of $40.5 million and be worth a total of $181.5 million over the life of the deal. That is only $3 million more than what he could get from another team on a max deal next summer.
If Beal were to wait until the summer, then opt out and sign a new five-year deal with the Wizards, he could get a total of $242 million, $61 million more than the extension that's available to him now.
Still, Beal has repeatedly made it clear that it's not all about money for him, nor is it about chasing rings.
"My biggest thing is getting us off going to a good start," Beal said last month, per Ava Wallace of the Washington Post. "We worry about the contract money and all that later. I'll let them deal with it when the time comes, for sure. I got all year to sign, too. So I'm not in a rush."
MORE: Superstars, trades and teams to watch in 2022 free agency
Kyrie Irving
After Kevin Durant signed his four-year extension this offseason, all signs pointed to Irving (and Harden) as next in line to receive a long-term contract.
"As it pertains to Kai and James, we're having those discussions with them now," Brooklyn Nets GM Sean Marks said at the time. "There's no immediate hurry to get any of these guys done in terms of the first day of free agency. These are opportunities for us to sit down, break bread together, meet with Joe Tsai, and really all get on the same page.
"I feel very confident that by the first day of training camp, we'll be looking at those three, in particular, being signed, sealed and delivered and being a part of the Brooklyn Nets for a long time to come."
However, things are far different now than they were for Irving just a few months ago. Because he has not received the COVID-19 vaccine, he is ineligible to play home games in Brooklyn, and last week the Nets announced they would not use him as a part-time player for road games only. Irving will not play or practice with the team until he is eligible to become a full participant under local COVID-19 vaccination requirements.
The big question will come if Irving does get vaccinated. Would that same $187 million extension that was on the table in mid-August still be available?
The Nets have to be careful with how they handle an extension for Irving. Given his injury history and his track record for not being available, a long-term deal for Irving could end up leaving Brooklyn stuck with the worst contract in the NBA a couple of years from now.
The Undefeated: Kyrie Irving is abandoning the voiceless
More veteran extension notes:
Chicago Bulls guard Zach LaVine will not entertain extension talks this season and will wait until he becomes a free agent next offseason. LaVine is limited because he can receive only a 120% raise off his $19.5 million salary and signing an extension now would cost him close to $100 million.
Dorian Finney-Smith is the Mavericks' top defender and ranked 14th among all power forwards in defensive real plus-minus last season. In 60 regular-season games, Finney-Smith averaged 9.8 points, 5.4 rebounds and shot 39.4% from 3. Because he is in the last year of his contract, Dallas can extend him for an additional four seasons and up to $55 million in new money. Because Dallas is over the salary cap and has limited resources to replace him, the Mavericks cannot afford to allow him to enter free agency in 2022.
The Trail Blazers are in a precarious spot, owing a combined $92 million next season to Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum and Norman Powell, who represent three of their five starters. The other two starters, Robert Covington and Jusuf Nurkic, are set to be free agents next summer unless they are extended or re-sign with Portland in the offseason. If either (or both) leaves, Portland has only the $10.1 million midlevel exception available to use for a replacement. Covington ranked No. 2 among all power forwards in defensive real plus-minus and had a net rating of +2.9 when he was on the court. The Trail Blazers can extend the 30 year-old for an additional four years and $70 million in new money. In the 25 games after the All-Star break, Nurkic averaged 12.2 points, 9.6 rebounds and was a +4.3 on the court. The Trail Blazers overall were 22-15 in the 37 games he played last season. The $14.4 million starting salary in the first year of an extension ranks outside of the top 10 of starting centers. He can be extended for four additional seasons and up to $64.5 million.
Other veterans who are extension eligible: Delon Wright (Atlanta), Ricky Rubio (Cleveland), Vlatko Cancar (Denver), Kevon Looney (Golden St.), Danuel House Jr. (Houston), Jeremy Lamb (Indiana), T.J. Warren (Indiana), Tyus Jones (Memphis), Kyle Anderson (Memphis), Patrick Beverley (Minnesota), Naz Reid (Minnesota), Jaylen Nowell (Minnesota), Jake Layman (Minnesota), Jonas Valanciunas (New Orleans), Tomas Satoransky (New Orleans), Gary Harris (Orlando), Shake Milton (Philadelphia), Thaddeus Young (San Antonio), Al-Farouq Aminu (San Antonio), Goran Dragic (Toronto) and Thomas Bryant (Washington).
Recent second-round picks
Unlike the 2018 first-round picks, who had an Oct. 18 deadline to sign extensions, there is no in-season deadline for second-round picks to sign extensions. Among the notables are Jalen Brunson, Mitchell Robinson and Daniel Gafford.
Up until June 30, each of the below players can be extended for four years and up to $55.6 million.
Jalen Brunson
The Mavericks took an unorthodox approach when they signed Brunson to a four-year contract after he was drafted in 2018. Because the contract does not contain a team option for 2021-22, the Mavericks are at risk of Brunson playing out the contract and becoming an unrestricted free agent next offseason. Brunson is coming off a season where he averaged a career high in minutes (25.0), points (12.6), field goal percentage (52.3%) and 3-point percentage (40.5%). Per Cleaning the Glass, Brunson ranked in the 97th percentile of all players in points per shot attempt. As Zach Lowe wrote in late February, you could make the argument that Brunson was, at times last season, the Mavericks' second-best player.
Mitchell Robinson
As a rookie, Robinson signed a four-year contract with a team option in the final season.
The Knicks could have declined the option before free agency began, making Robinson a restricted free agent. Instead, they elected to exercise it and Robinson will now become an unrestricted free agent next offseason if an extension is not reached.
Before a broken right foot that cost him the remainder of the season, Robinson was averaging 8.2 points, 8.1 rebounds and 1.5 blocks, and the decision to decline the option and make him a restricted free agent would have been a no-brainer.
Robinson missed most of training camp rehabbing from the broken foot and returned for the last preseason game.
Daniel Gafford
The Wizards' trade to acquire Gafford in late March was one of the better transactions at the deadline.
In 23 games (all off the bench), Gafford averaged 10.1 points, 5.6 rebounds and 1.8 blocks, and the Wizards went 17-6 in those games. Gafford averaged 10 points and 5.5 rebounds in two starts in the first-round playoff loss to the Philadelphia 76ers.
Although he has two seasons left on his contract, the Wizards are allowed to extend the 23-year-old if they first decline the $1.9 million team option in 2022-23.
Unlike the Terance Mann extension that starts in 2023-24 as a result of the Clippers exercising the 2022-23 team option, the Gafford extension would start next season. The Wizards can give Gafford an extension that starts in 2023-24, but they'd have to wait until the 2022 offseason to do that.
More former second-round picks who are extension eligible: Nicolas Claxton (Brooklyn), Cody Martin (Charlotte), Isaiah Roby (Oklahoma City) and Eric Paschall (Utah).