It's time for our last fall tradition: our five most intriguing NBA players of the season. We try to stay away from rookies, sophomores, and superstars.
The goal is to highlight X factors, and guys in the sweet spot of "will they or won't they?" development.
We whittled three-dozen candidates down to these five.
Darius Garland, Cleveland Cavaliers
Shortly after an April game last season when Garland lit up the San Antonio Spurs for 37 points and seven assists on 14-of-22 shooting -- including 5-of-10 on 3s -- J.B. Bickerstaff, Cleveland's coach, called Garland with a message: "You know you can't stop here, right?"
"Replicate that every night," Bickerstaff says now. "No taking your foot off the gas. You had 37. OK, what's next?"
"That game," Garland says, "changed my entire perspective."
It crystallized that the Cavs should shift more ballhandling duties from Collin Sexton to Garland. Sexton could spend a little more time off the ball, spotting up for 3s and slicing into secondary pick-and-rolls after Garland bends the defense. (Sexton has improved as a scorer. He has a bit of Trae Young's floater -- including the tendency to draw contact.)
Garland and Sexton have heard the criticism -- that they are too small, too similar. "It's fuel for us," Garland says. "We've seen Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry do it, so why can't we? I think we're a little better than they were at our ages."
Sexton and Garland cooperating in more side-to-side action could jolt the Cavs out of the thudding dribble-dribble-dribble lifelessness that infected their offense last season. "Sometimes it got stagnant because people like to watch me and Collin," Garland says. "We need to get the defense to shift."
Easier said than done with a young roster. Sexton and Garland are feeling out the pace and spacing of those actions -- with awkward results sometimes:
Cleveland will miss Larry Nance Jr. and (probably at some point) Kevin Love as elbow playmaking hubs, though the team hopes Evan Mobley can do some of that. Spacing will be shaky in lineups featuring Mobley, Jarrett Allen, and Isaac Okoro; Okoro shot just 29% on mostly wide-open 3s.
Garland and Sexton have heavy lifting to do in those alignments. Garland leverages the threat of ultra-long 3s to zip into the paint. He hits them from so far away, the Cavs painted a 4-point line onto their practice court -- basically the Garland line. In a pre-draft workout at the Los Angeles mansion of Steven Jackson, a sneaker mogul with a regulation court in his home, Garland drained shots from further and further out -- until he reached midcourt.
He made so many, including in long streaks, that someone watching shouted, "Cut it." The Cavs had seen enough.
"Some smaller guys, they have to heave it from out there," Bickerstaff says. "But for him, it was just a flick."
Garland attempted five 3s per game last season. Bickerstaff wants that number closer to eight or nine. "Get 'em up," Bickerstaff says. "He shoots good shots. We want him to have the confidence to take some bad ones."
Once in the lane, Garland has an endless bag of moves he executes with either hand -- and at almost full north-south speed. Being crafty and superfast at once is rare:
Garland's father, Winston, a seven-year NBA veteran, stressed the importance of "changing pace but still playing at a fast pace," Garland says. When Garland was a kid, his father put him through drills in which he had to dribble at full speed and execute different moves each time his father clapped, Garland says.
Garland has a silky touch with both hands. He sees most passes on time.
The bigger challenge for Sexton and Garland is on defense, where their size really hurts. Garland has focused on getting around screens, and holding up one-on-one. During his time on the national Select Team this summer, Garland gravitated toward Jerami Grant of the Detroit Pistons -- seeking Grant's advice on defense and communication. "He really wanted to learn," Grant says.
The size disadvantage impacts offense too. Sexton and Garland have a harder time passing over bigger defenders, or launching jumpers off pindowns -- something Bickerstaff wants Garland to do more, in the mold of Spurs legend Tony Parker. (Garland is a sneaky backdoor cutter too.) Blitzing defenses can unnerve them -- sending them retreating toward half court.
Of course, partnering in pick-and-rolls with bigs who could shoot, pass, or post up switches would help Garland and Sexton -- give them more options, better matchups, wider lanes. Improvement is interactive.
The Cavs are young, but they have big ambitions. "The conversations in our locker room," Garland says, "are about the playoffs."
Chuma Okeke, Orlando Magic
Okeke sat out what would have been his rookie season recovering from knee surgery. He spent time with the Magic's G League team, leaving him a somewhat shy mystery.
"He barely talked to anyone that year," says Evan Fournier, now with the New York Knicks.
Fournier's trade to the Boston Celtics was one of three deadline moves that signaled a new teardown -- the rebuild of the rebuild in Orlando's endless post-Dwight Howard nightmare -- transforming Okeke in a blink from unknown kiddo to one of Orlando's longest-tenured players. "It's weird everyone is gone," Okeke says. "But next man up."
Orlando is well-stocked with guards and bigs -- especially once Jonathan Isaac reclaims his starting power forward spot. Okeke and Franz Wagner loom as the essential bridge between those groups -- the extra-large, 3-and-D wing who can do a little of everything on offense and switch across all five positions on defense.
Okeke spent most of last season at power forward, which made things easier for him on offense. Toggling to the wing shouldn't impact him on defense, but he'll have to navigate tighter confines on the other end.
Okeke spends a lot of time spotting up -- in the corners and along the wing. He hit 35% from deep on decent volume -- encouraging, even if defenders ignored him to clog the paint. Down the stretch, he dared to hoist against strong contests and dabbled in off-the-bounce 3s -- though he hit just 4-of-26 on those.
The Magic are confident Okeke's shot will come. That could empower his catch-and-go driving game, since defenders would close out harder -- easy prey for dustings. Okeke is not a blow-away athlete. He does not have a killer first step. Optimists see Okeke as Orlando's Mikal Bridges on defense, but he has not yet shown the same nimble feet and preternatural instincts.
But Okeke is a smart, well-rounded player with feel. If he knifes into the lane, he makes the right play. Okeke lets some driving opportunities slip away by pausing on the catch -- allowing the defense to reset. "I need to make quicker decisions," he says.
The Magic started using him as a ball handler in pick-and-rolls, and Okeke flashed advanced playmaking:
Jamahl Mosley, Orlando's new coach, says we will see more of Okeke handling -- and more of him screening for Orlando's guards. Mosley will mix up Orlando's two-man combinations -- to maximize the element of surprise, and so that each player is familiar with different roles. Mosley hopes that engenders teamwide empathy. "You've experienced things from teammates' perspectives," Mosley says.
Pairing Okeke with guards in the two-man game will coax switches, and Okeke has some bully ball in him:
Okeke needs to embrace that cruelty instead of fading for turnarounds. (He does have a nascent face-up game, and a smooth pull-up midranger.)
If Okeke starts drawing help, watch out. He is a canny inside-out playmaker; the Magic have used him as trigger man on the block:
The Magic scored 1.211 points per possession when Okeke shot out of the post, or dished to a teammate who fired -- sixth among 102 players who recorded at least 40 post touches, per Second Spectrum.
Okeke wants to be the sort of versatile, switchy defender who gives Orlando access to any scheme. "That would take pressure off our coaches -- to know, 'Chuma can do whatever,'" he says.
The right ingredients are there -- balance, strength, size, and an appetite for defense. It's not easy stonewalling Anthony Davis like this:
"Chuma is about the right things," Fournier says.
(For Magic staffers, Fournier's fondness for Okeke is the ultimate proof Okeke has a galvanizing personality; Fournier is a prickly sort who does not easily dole out affection. Okeke has come out of his shell, and is popular with teammates. He bikes to the arena, and everyone knows they can borrow his bike for errands. "It's the team bike now," Okeke says.)
Okeke has a long list of improvements he wants to make on defense: getting around screens, nailing help-and-recover rotations, staying attuned to more complex schemes. He is hard on himself, and craves honest feedback. Okeke raps in his spare time, and when J. Cole visited a recent practice, the team played an Okeke track for him. Okeke was mortified -- not because he thought his music unworthy; Okeke feared J. Cole in that setting would withhold his harshest constructive criticism.
"I want his genuine opinion," Okeke says.
If Okeke brings that mentality to basketball, the Magic might have an ace role player -- and maybe much more.
OG Anunoby, Toronto Raptors
Anunoby would appear to have graduated from this column, but that's the point: Even after averaging 16 points and sniffing 40% from deep for the second straight season, he still has one leap in him -- maybe more.
"I can be an All-Star," Anunoby says. "I know I can."
Outside events have made for scattershot development. Anunoby's father died shortly before Toronto's championship season. Anunoby's appendix ruptured just before those playoffs, robbing him of participating in Toronto's title run. Injuries took chunks of other seasons. The pandemic disrupted the past two for everyone, but only the Raptors had to relocate -- in a season they ended up semi-tanking, with key players (including Anunoby) missing games down the stretch.
"Bad luck and bad timing," Anunoby says. "Nothing to do about it."
Anunoby is already an All-NBA defender capable of guarding any position; Nick Nurse sometimes sticks Anunoby on centers -- even really good ones -- to confuse opponents and switch more pick-and-rolls.
That Anunoby's 3-pointer is now a proven commodity counts as more of a surprise. Anunoby worked tirelessly on his shot, even analyzing still photographs to break down his form, Nurse says.
Anunoby became more involved in every aspect of Toronto's offense last season, but he was still a bit player; Anunoby ran four pick-and-rolls per 100 possessions and served as screener in about seven, per Second Spectrum -- career highs, but tiny numbers given his stature. He recorded about 2.5 post touches per 100 possessions -- low considering how strong Anunoby is, how ruthlessly he can overpower guards on switches.
Anunoby will do more of everything, but the Raptors won't pigeonhole him -- or direct his offense in any single direction. Anunoby can set picks for both Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet, with different combinations calling for different actions within the action -- and forcing different switches. Anunoby can pop for 3s, fool entire defenses with fake handoffs, and screen-and-dive into space near the foul line -- where he is a heady playmaker.
He has worked on all of it -- and on passing off live dribbles with either hand. "I don't want to be predictable," Anunoby says.
His growth as a ball handler and a scorer will determine his ceiling. Anunoby added more variety to his face-up game last season -- in-and-out dribbles, predatory crossovers. This is filth:
He is starting to rise up from midrange, including with a Dirk Nowitzki-ish one-legger:
Anunoby is still finding the right balance between aggression and patience. He is more at home than most players under the rim; he spies kickout passes from tough angles, and likes burrowing his shoulder into bigger defenders -- dislodging them, and laying the ball in.
But sometimes patience manifests as overcautiousness. On some drives, Anunoby appears a superathlete. On others, he looks slow -- almost ground-bround, prone to getting his shot blocked.
"Sometimes you'll think, 'How did he not score there?'" Nurse says. "And then he'll dunk over three people, and it's like, 'Where did that come from?'"
Anunoby and Nurse saw progress in preseason. "He's beginning to start drives and end drives better," Nurse says.
Anunoby knows he should average more than 2.4 free throws. He has noticed how Jimmy Butler and Giannis Antetokounmpo keep driving headlong even after one charging call. "They aren't going to call it every time," Anunoby says. "I can't be worried about charges." He has watched film of Luka Doncic using pump fakes and pivots in the deep paint to draw contact, he says.
Anunoby's pick-and-roll playmaking has not matched his interior passing. He doesn't hit many slingshots to corner shooters. He sometimes pulls up when one more dribble might crack an easy look for him, or his dance partner:
That will come with reps. For now, he doesn't have to be Toronto's lead playmaker; he can start off the ball, catch it on the move, and fly into wing pick-and-rolls against scrambled defenses.
But he's ready to spread his wings in every direction.
"I don't put limits on anything," Anunoby says.
Robert Williams III, Boston Celtics
How many elite dive-and-dunk bigs double as canny passers -- capable of facilitating the offense?
The number who do both at Williams' level is really small.
And how many of those can do this to James Harden in a close playoff game?
That is the promise of the "Time Lord" wrapped into one nine-second sequence: switching onto one of the greatest ball handlers ever, maintaining a stance, keeping his arms out, staying balanced against all fakery, and finally rising to reject a 3-pointer from an all-time scorer unaccustomed to such rudeness.
Williams had nine blocks in that game. When asked if he remembers that one, he simply says, "We lost. I know that." Teammates and coaches say Williams does not care about scoring or stats -- that he only wants to win. He works hard, and shows up on time now. (Williams concedes the Time Lord nickname will follow him forever. "It ain't going anywhere, so I accept it," he says.)
Williams has great hands. Only two rotation players -- Williams and Nerlens Noel -- averaged more than 1.5 steals and three blocks per 36 minutes last season, according to Basketball-Reference. The Celtics have tried everything from switching to blitzing with Williams, and he has looked at home doing all of it.
"He has natural ability on defense that not a lot of young bigs have," says Al Horford, a teammate both now and during Williams' rookie season. "From our very first pickup game, that stood out."
The raw materials of a special two-way center are here. That's why the Celtics' front office frantically canvassed sources in the middle of the 2018 draft, trying to figure out why Williams was slipping -- whether there was some medical issue -- and if they should trade up to get him, sources say.
The issue has been consistency. Williams has played only 113 games in three seasons, due mostly to nagging injuries. As Sam Vecenie has pointed out on the Game Theory podcast, Williams has logged 30 or more minutes in exactly one game.
On defense, his fundamentals come and go. Williams sometimes stands up instead of holding his crouch, and droops his arms to his sides. "I have to improve my stance -- my posture," he says. He can't resist some pump fakes. "That's hard, trust me," he says, laughing.
He can rotate late, and chase blocks he has no chance at -- leaving the glass naked. He sometimes swings his arms down instead of staying vertical. Boston coaches have been on him to keep blocks inbounds instead of swatting them into the stands. Back-to-basket behemoths -- a dwindling group -- can shove him backward.
As a rookie defending pick-and-rolls, Williams often abandoned ball handlers too early to get back to his man -- conceding easy drives. Now, he sometimes overcompensates by lingering too long on the ball, allowing his man to skulk behind him for pocket passes:
Mastering that stuff takes years, but Williams is trending the right way. He became more diligent on the glass last season.
Even his passing can go haywire, though it's not always his fault. He sees the game so fast, some of his passes -- especially tip passes on offensive rebounds -- catch teammates off guard.
"I just gotta slow it down a little sometimes," Williams says, "and stop throwing so many bullets."
The combined passing between Horford and Williams is the main reason the Celtics -- and the two principles -- are optimistic the double-big pairing can work. Horford can stretch the floor, then pump and drive, and lob to Williams in the dunker spot. Williams can orchestrate while Horford screens in off-ball split actions.
Space will open when Boston goes smaller, with only one of the Williams-Horford tandem. Williams is a cagey hand-off guy, outthinking defenses by flipping the direction of his screens and signaling his shooters to flare away for corner jumpers. He is starting to eat up the space defenses give him with hard dribbles leading into soft-touch paint shots:
He slips hard out of picks, and knows all the reads before he catches the ball: dunker spot, corner shooters, wing shooters.
The Celtics expect Williams to shoot more jumpers at some point. Posting up guards on switches will be one of the final frontiers -- something Williams hasn't done much, even as several teams, including the Brooklyn Nets in the playoffs, have switched point guards onto him.
Development is uncertain. Williams might top out as an average center; the Celtics paid him as such in his recent contract extension.
But the upside is so much higher -- like All-Star high -- and if Williams stays healthy, he's a good bet to unlock at least some of it.
Talen Horton-Tucker, Los Angeles Lakers
It might have been a year early to put Horton-Tucker here, even before he tore a ligament in his thumb; he is competing for minutes with a pile of veterans, and he hit just 28% on 3s last season -- including a hideous 15% from the corners. There are many miles between those marks and shooting well enough to play alongside LeBron James. No one will guard Horton-Tucker on the perimeter until he makes teams pay.
But he is by far the most important young player on an old team; the Lakers signaled as much by re-signing Horton-Tucker to a three-year, $30.8 million deal, effectively choosing him over Alex Caruso, and coaches discussed the possibility of starting Horton-Tucker this season, sources say.
The Lakers are searching for two-way wings to round out Anthony Davis-at-center lineups, and Horton-Tucker could be one the moment he hits enough open 3s. He has the profile to guard across the positional spectrum: quick feet, stoutness, and a giant, 7-foot-1 wingspan. (He led all returning L.A. rotation players in deflections per minute.) Horton-Tucker makes typical young guy mistakes -- he can be reckless gambling for steals -- but he tries hard, always in a stance with his head on a swivel, and reads the game.
Frank Vogel inserted Horton-Tucker for Games 4 and 5 of the Lakers' 2020 Western Conference semifinals series against the Houston Rockets -- the only two games Horton-Tucker appeared in during L.A.'s title run -- to see what he might do against Harden. "We all felt we would look back and ask ourselves: Why didn't we try him?" Vogel recalls.
Vogel spent part of the team's post-championship flight home raving about Horton-Tucker to executives.
Horton-Tucker also can be a deterrent at the rim. During one recent practice, he caught James with a chase-down block -- a role reversal that excited coaches and executives, sources say.
Horton-Tucker's ballhandling would seem less useful with Russell Westbrook joining James -- and presumably running things when James rests -- but it's part of the intrigue. The deeper you advance, the more ballhandling you need. Horton-Tucker's jagged, stop-and-start rhythm is tough for defenders to grasp. A ridiculous 53% of his shots came at the rim -- a 99th percentile share, per Cleaning the Glass.
Horton-Tucker can screen for James, dart into open space, and make plays off the bounce. That opponents often hide point guards on Horton-Tucker only lends that two-man game power: You either switch that little guy onto the game's all-time chess master or put your defense into rotation.
Horton-Tucker is also big enough to eventually bully those guards in the post -- if he hones that skill. Right now, he settles for too many spinning fadeaways:
Horton-Tucker can zoom up from the corner and into empty-side pick-and-rolls with Davis -- with no defender in traditional help position:
Such quick-hitting action makes it harder for defenses to duck picks against Horton-Tucker. (He also is good at using screens two and three times until one of them hits.)
He is decisive catching and slashing into open corridors when defenders slough away from him:
In rehearsing zone defense and offense during camp, the Lakers found this sort of slashing through gaps made Horton-Tucker a zone-destroyer. "He knifed through the zone four or five straight times," Vogel says. "We looked at each other and thought, 'That's better than any perimeter shooting or movement sets we could use against the zone.'"
Horton-Tucker is a slick interior passer; he dished five dimes per 36 minutes last season. The Lakers want to run, and Horton-Tucker is another guy who can grab and go after rebounds.
But he can get frenetic in traffic -- prodding into nothingness, missing passes, even colliding with teammates. Note James motioning for Horton-Tucker to pass once the play is dead:
Gaining James' trust can be hard for role players -- doubly so for blah shooters. Horton-Tucker played just 43 minutes alongside both James and Davis last season -- shockingly low, even given injuries to both L.A. superstars.
Still: It just feels like the best version of these Lakers -- both this season and maybe more pointedly next season -- involves a decent amount of Horton-Tucker.