On Tuesday, almost a month after Kawhi Leonard suffered a right ACL injury late in the LA Clippers' Game 4 win over the Utah Jazz in the Western Conference semifinals, his team announced that he had undergone surgery for a partial tear of the ligament.
Given the timing of the surgery, with barely more than three months before the start of the 2021-22 campaign, it's likely the injury will affect Leonard's availability at the start of next season. He also can hit unrestricted free agency this summer while rehabbing, if he declines a 2021-22 player option.
As a result, Leonard's return to the team that announced his surgery is no sure thing. Still, let's take a look at the impact for him and the Clippers.
Possible timetable
Although partial tears of the other knee ligaments are common, they're relatively rare with the ACL, making it difficult to assess how long Leonard might be out.
Injury analyst Jeff Stotts of InStreetClothes.com noted that two players who underwent ACL surgery earlier this season also had partial tears: Thomas Bryant of the Washington Wizards and Spencer Dinwiddie of the Brooklyn Nets. Though Dinwiddie held out hope of a rare in-season return and was cleared for basketball activity last month, less than six months after the injury, the Nets had already been eliminated from the playoffs by that point.
The handful of prior partial ACL tears that required surgery had timelines more typical for a full ACL tear. Vitaly Potapenko suffered a partial ACL tear in April 2002 while playing for the Boston Celtics, who initially ruled him out only for the first round of the playoffs. Potapenko ultimately underwent surgery a month later, ending his season, and didn't return until December, back when ACL rehab was closer to nine months on average than the current year-plus.
In late January 2013, Celtics guard Rajon Rondo also had a partial ACL tear. He was sidelined nearly a full year before returning the following January. Tony Wroten, then with the Philadelphia 76ers in 2015, was on a similar timetable. He was injured in January and returned in December, nearly 11 months later.
If Leonard were to miss 11 months, that would put his comeback near the second round of the 2022 playoffs, because the NBA plans to return to its typical schedule next season. An absence of a full year would likely cost him the entire 2021-22 campaign. More optimistically, a rehab similar to Dinwiddie's could allow Leonard to return near the season's midpoint.
Impact on Kawhi's free agency
It's unlikely Leonard's surgery will have much impact on his decision about a $36.0 million player option for next season. Kevin Durant's free agency in the summer of 2019 is proof of concept both of the fact that superstar players will still get multiple maximum contract offers despite a serious injury and the wisdom of signing them, given the level at which Durant played this season. Durant's injury, an Achilles tendon rupture, is not the same as a partial ACL tear but of similar and perhaps greater severity, on average.
Because Leonard has reached the 10 seasons necessary to reach the highest possible maximum salary, hitting free agency would make sense even if he has no intention of leaving the Clippers. Opting out and re-signing with the team would allow Leonard to add $3.3 million to his 2021-22 salary while adding up to three new seasons of guaranteed salary.
Still, my ESPN colleague Bobby Marks has made the case that picking up the option and signing an extension might be the best play for Leonard. In that scenario, he would be able to add four new seasons to his contract, locking in an additional year at up to $50.2 million in 2025-26.
Whatever way Leonard decides to go, his current injury shouldn't affect his thinking much. He would surely remain the most sought-after free agent on the market.
How Clippers handle 2021-22
Assuming Leonard does return, either by picking up his player option or re-signing with the Clippers in free agency, they'll have to plan to play much of next season without their star. Fortunately, LA got a head start on that process with its impressive run to the Western Conference finals after the All-Star's injury. Playing against the top two seeds in the West, the Clippers went 4-4 before being eliminated.
Keeping the group that coalesced in the playoffs could be a challenge for the Clippers, because point guard Reggie Jackson is a free agent and the team has only early Bird rights to exceed the cap and re-sign him. That limits the Clippers to pay a starting salary of a little more than $10 million, which other teams might beat after Jackson's impressive postseason run. In that case, the Clippers would have to rely on their ability to offer Jackson up to four seasons on a new contract along with the opportunity to play for a championship contender in Los Angeles.
Forward Nicolas Batum, whose 29.2 minutes per game ranked fifth on the Clippers in the playoffs, is also an unrestricted free agent after signing a one-year deal for the veterans minimum before last season. The Clippers would have to dip into their midlevel exception to pay Batum appreciably more than the minimum, because they have only non-Bird rights on him. At the same time, some of any salary Batum makes above the minimum goes to offset the $9 million in stretched salary the Charlotte Hornets will pay him, so he might not be looking to maximize every dollar.
The Clippers do know they'll have fellow All-Star Paul George under contract for 2021-22, after he agreed to a four-year extension prior to last season. George performed well in the playoffs -- his 2.8 wins above replacement player by my metric still rank third among all players, behind Leonard (3.3) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (3.2) -- and gives the Clippers an anchor in Leonard's absence.
Additionally, the Clippers will likely pencil Terance Mann in for a bigger role in 2021-22 after his breakout postseason. Mann averaged 28.6 MPG following Leonard's injury, scoring 12.8 points per game and shooting 56% from the field and 45% on 3s. While that kind of scoring efficiency isn't realistic, Mann's two-way play makes him a candidate to fill Leonard's spot in the starting lineup to begin next season.
If Leonard returns and can come back at some point before the playoffs, LA should have enough talent on hand to at least reach the play-in tournament, if not lock in a top-six seed. And if Leonard can get back to anywhere near the level he played at during the 2020 postseason prior to his injury, the Clippers would again be a formidable opponent.