The NBA Finals have yet to be decided, but 28 other teams are already in offseason mode, working toward the 2021 NBA Draft and a free-agency period that begins just a few days later. There are many important decisions coming up that will affect the 2022 title race and beyond.
Will Kawhi Leonard remain with the LA Clippers? How can the Los Angeles Lakers find a third star? Which All-NBA player might get traded next?
Those are just some of the big questions that could get answered this summer. Here's a rundown of the biggest questions we're looking at with the start of free agency just three weeks away.
MORE: Biggest 2021 NBA free-agency and trade decisions for all 30 teams
Is the 2021-22 salary cap impacted by COVID-19?
Even with fan attendance near capacity for most playoff games, the league is still feeling the financial implications of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, sources confirmed to ESPN that the salary cap in 2021-22 is projected to come in at $112.1 million, a 3% increase from this past season.
The small increase will have leaguewide ramifications on spending. For the second consecutive offseason, ESPN is projecting only four teams to have cap space: the Charlotte Hornets, Miami Heat, New York Knicks and San Antonio Spurs. By comparison, there were 15, 9 and 14 teams below the cap from 2017-18 to 2019-20.
The Dallas Mavericks, Toronto Raptors and Chicago Bulls could join the group but at the expense of their own key free agents (Tim Hardaway Jr., Kyle Lowry and Lauri Markkanen, respectively). The Thunder could have up to $36 million in cap space but have four large trade exceptions ($27.6 to $9.6 million) and will likely act as a team over the cap.
MORE: Adam Silver says fans helped slow NBA's financial woes
Which position has the deepest group of free agents?
The free-agent talent pool this offseason is average, but if there is a position of strength it would be at point guard. While it is likely that Chris Paul remains with the Phoenix Suns, either on a new contract or an extension, the market is flooded with starting-caliber point guards who could change teams. The list consists of Lowry, Mike Conley, Lonzo Ball (restricted), Spencer Dinwiddie, Dennis Schroder, Reggie Jackson, Kendrick Nunn (restricted), Devonte' Graham (restricted) and Cameron Payne.
The decisions from Lowry and Schroder will create a domino effect for the other guards. For example, if Lowry does not return to the Raptors and signs with the Heat and Schroder goes to Chicago, the Knicks, and perhaps the Mavericks, are the lone teams that have money available with a starting point guard need. Schroder's former team, the Lakers, would either need to sign a replacement with the $9.5 million midlevel exception or acquire a player in a sign-and-trade.
There is also a strong group of wings -- led by DeMar DeRozan, Hardaway, Norman Powell, Duncan Robinson, Doug McDermott, Josh Hart, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Gary Trent Jr. -- who should garner interest with teams that have cap space.
MORE: Lowry's future uncertain, but he says 'I will retire as a Toronto Raptor'
Is Phoenix the favorite to re-sign Chris Paul?
After the Finals are over, Paul has a decision to make with his $44.2 million player option. He can opt in and extend for an additional two seasons with the Suns or test free agency. If he becomes a free agent, the Suns are still the heavy favorites to bring Paul back.
Besides the ability to offer more years (four compared to three) and money in a new contract, Phoenix checks the boxes on the two most important things on a free-agent wish list: a roster that is built to win a championship now (and in the future) and quality of life off the court.
The Knicks will be mentioned because of Paul's relationship with his former agent Leon Rose, now the Knicks' president. However, there is no comparison when lining up a Suns roster that returns Devin Booker, Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, Deandre Ayton and Jae Crowder to a Knicks team with RJ Barrett and Julius Randle.
Paul has earned over $300 million in his career on the court, has signed three max contracts and is at a point in his life when competing for a championship could outweigh searching for that next lucrative deal.
MORE: Paul has a chance to redefine his legacy
What will happen with Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers?
It was only two years ago that Leonard's free-agent decision put a temporary freeze on the offseason. He eventually signed with the Clippers, but his contract included the option to become a free agent again in 2021. The decision was seen more as a business tactic because the forward would reach 10 years of service in 2021, meaning that he could sign a new contract with the Clippers starting at 35% of the salary cap.
Now entering the offseason, we will learn if Leonard's decision to sign a short-term contract was financially motivated or if he wants to explore his options outside of the Clippers. If the decision is the latter, Leonard moves to the top of the list as the most desirable free agent and once again could put the offseason in a standstill.
While there is no team that can offer Leonard more financially than the Clippers, the All-Star has turned down lucrative contracts in the past from the Spurs and Raptors. If Leonard does become a free agent, expect a line of suitors to include New York, Dallas and Miami.
The Knicks have a $39 million salary slot available, but the Mavericks and Heat would need to shed salary to sign Leonard outright. If the Heat renounce all of their free agents (including Robinson and Nunn) and decline the team options of Goran Dragic and Andre Iguodala, they will have $29 million in room.
The Mavericks would have $34 million in room if Hardaway is renounced, the team option of Willie Cauley-Stein is declined and Josh Richardson either is traded or declines his player option.
MORE: Leonard holds the Clippers' offseason in his hands
What should we expect from the Lakers?
There is no clear path for the Lakers to acquire a third star to team up with LeBron James and Anthony Davis, assuming one is even available this summer.
The Lakers are over the salary cap, and their roster options are limited outside of bringing back their own free agents: Schroder, Alex Caruso and Talen Horton-Tucker. Signing all three pushes them into the luxury tax, leaving Los Angeles with the $5.9 million tax midlevel and veterans minimum exceptions to fill out the rest of the roster. If the Lakers let Schroder walk but bring back Caruso and Horton-Tucker, they are still limited to the $5.9 million tax midlevel exception even if Montrezl Harrell declines his $9.7 million player option.
A sign-and-trade is an option, but it would trigger the $143 million hard cap, meaning the Lakers would need to shed the contracts of Harrell and either Kyle Kuzma or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Is there a team out there that would take on the $39 million owed to Kuzma or the $17 million owed to Caldwell-Pope?
For example, would Brooklyn consider Kuzma and the No. 22 pick in this month's draft to help facilitate a Dinwiddie sign-and-trade? The $13 million Kuzma contract would add to the Nets' substantial luxury tax bill. DeRozan makes sense for the Lakers, but would the Spurs want back a package of Caldwell-Pope, Kuzma and the 22nd pick?
Acquiring a player in a sign-and-trade could also cost the Lakers Caruso or Horton-Tucker, leaving the Lakers with the veterans minimum to fill out their bench.
MORE: Complete offseason guide for the Lakers
Who is the next All-Star to get traded?
A superstar has been traded in each of the past three offseasons: Chris Paul in 2020, Anthony Davis (among others) in 2019 and Kawhi Leonard in 2018.
It remains to be seen if anyone will follow them in 2021, but if that does happen, the logical candidates would be Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard, Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal and Philadelphia 76ers guard Ben Simmons.
Portland's Neil Olshey has been adamant that Lillard's future is in Portland.
"Dame and I talk all the time," he said. "Dame's happiness always revolves around winning. The ultimate responsibility behind that falls on me and my staff to put a team together. Every indication is that Dame doesn't want to leave Portland. He wants to retire a Trail Blazer. He's expressed that to the stakeholders."
Lillard is set to enter the first year of the four-year, $176.3 million supermax extension he signed in 2019, when Portland was coming off an appearance in the conference finals. The Blazers have been bounced in the first round in each of the past two seasons.
Washington overcame much adversity this past season to earn an appearance in the postseason, but Wizards GM Tommy Sheppard is not content being conservative with the roster.
"This is not a run it back team," he said. "We have to get better".
However, change is not easy considering that the Wizards are over the salary cap, $10 million below the luxury tax and could see their bench depleted with Ish Smith, Raul Neto, Robin Lopez and Alex Len all free agents.
Beal will reach 10 years of service in 2022 and as a result can sign an extension worth 35% of the salary cap starting on Oct. 1. A four-year extension that starts in 2022-23 -- replacing his $36.4 million player option -- would have a starting salary of $40.5 million and be worth a total of $181.5 million over the life of the deal.
The Wizards are on the same financial playing field with an extension as a team that could sign Beal with cap space in 2022. Beal's total salary from a four-year extension would be only $7 million more than what he could get on a max contract from another team.
If Beal turns down the extension, the Wizards shouldn't take it as an indication that he wants out. He could prefer to play out the season and explore his options in 2022, when he could sign a new five-year deal with Washington worth a total of $54 million more. Declining the extension could simply be a smart financial decision.
Still, that would leave the Wizards with a franchise-altering decision to make: Do they keep Beal at the risk of losing him for nothing or do they explore the trade market?
In Philadelphia, Simmons is coming off a disaster of a playoff series against Atlanta, and the 76ers would be trading from a disadvantaged position if they were to consider offers. Despite his offensive flaws, Simmons has been an All-Defensive First Team selection in each of the past two seasons and does not turn 25 until July 20. He is owed $147 million over the next four seasons.
ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported back in late June that the 76ers are committed to keeping Simmons as a central piece of their franchise.
MORE: Six big trades we want to see
Will the 2018 rookie draft class top $1 billion in contract extensions?
A year ago, the 2017 draft class -- led by Jayson Tatum, Bam Adebayo, Donovan Mitchell and De'Aaron Fox -- set a league record when it signed $1 billion in rookie extensions.
That mark is expected to be smashed this offseason with the first-round picks selected in 2018.
Ayton, Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Michael Porter Jr. alone account for $860 million in projected new money. Five players signing a rookie max extension would set the record for one offseason.
Add Bridges, Kevin Huerter, Collin Sexton, Donte DiVincenzo, Miles Bridges, Robert Williams and possibly Jaren Jackson Jr. to that group and we could be looking at over $1.2 billion in extensions.
MORE: Complete list of players eligible for a rookie extension
Does Oklahoma City add to its treasure chest of first-round picks?
Considering that Oklahoma City has four large trade exceptions and there are so few teams with cap space to spend in free agency, expect the Thunder to continue to take on unwanted contracts and add more future first-round picks in the process, similar to what they did with the Kemba Walker trade last month.
Two of those trade exceptions ($27.6 and $10.2 million) expire on Aug. 9, but the Thunder are still likely to act as a team over the cap until then.
Since 2019, when Paul George was shipped to the Clippers, the Thunder have acquired 11 first-round picks and swap rights on three others.
MORE: Future draft assets for all 30 teams
Is there a wild-card team in free agency that nobody is talking about?
The Grizzlies could be a player in free agency and also in the trade market.
They face a decision on the $13 million team option of Justise Winslow. If the Grizzlies pick that up, they'll operate as an over-the-cap team this summer. If they decline and let Winslow walk, Memphis could open up $22 million in cap space.
If Memphis elects to stay over the cap, it will rely on continuity with a roster that has 13 players under contract while also adding a first-round pick.
Would another year of player development and a healthy Jackson be enough to push the Grizzlies into the top six in the West and avoid another trip to the play-in round? Perhaps, but teams operate in a three-year window, and if the Grizzlies stand pat this year, they'll face big questions the following offseason.
Jonas Valanciunas, Kyle Anderson, Tyus Jones and Winslow (if his team option is exercised) will be on expiring contracts in 2021-22. Memphis also has a financial decision to make with Jackson and Grayson Allen, both of whom are extension eligible this summer.
Would the Grizzlies package Anderson, Winslow, Brooks and multiple first-round picks (they have nine over the next seven years) to try to land the next disgruntled All-Star who wants out? It is not the character of this front office to do so, but that is the kind of move that could take them from being a fringe playoff team to a contender.
MORE: Complete Grizzlies offseason guide
Who are some of the under the radar free agents to keep an eye on?
Keep an eye on Richaun Holmes and McDermott.
Holmes is coming off a two-year stretch in Sacramento in which he started 88 games, averaging 13 points and 8.5 rebounds. Because he signed a two-year contract, the most that the Kings can offer as a starting salary for 2021-22 is $10.7 million ($1.2 million more than what a team could offer with the midlevel exception). League rules prevent the Kings from signing Holmes to a one-year, $11 million contract that would allow him to establish full Bird rights and sign a more lucrative contract in 2022.
The Hornets could have a projected $20.5 million in cap space (if Cody Zeller and Malik Monk walk) and have made it known that there is a glaring need at the center position.
"Every night I'm just trying to figure it out with that group [of centers]. It's been like that for three years," Hornets coach James Borrego told the Charlotte Observer after watching the Hornets get outrebounded 54-33 in a loss to Celtics this season. "It may be another three years that we continue to look like that, actually."
McDermott averaged career highs in points (13.6), field goal percentage (53.2%), true shooting percentage (63.2%) rebounds (3.4) and offensive rating (110.5). He also ranks No. 6 among all small forwards in offensive real plus-minus. Since the All-Star break, the forward shot 56.1% from the field and 41.5% from 3-point range. The Pacers are $11 million below the luxury tax, and signing McDermott would put them over the threshold.
MORE: Complete list of 2021 and 2022 free agents
What other storylines should we watch out for?
Joel Embiid's potential four-year, $190 million supermax extension in Philadelphia.
Will Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving sign extensions in Brooklyn?
The free-agent options in New Orleans.
The restricted free agency of Atlanta power forward John Collins.
The Warriors remaking their bench with the $5.9 million midlevel and veterans minimum exceptions.
The future of Kevin Love: Does Team USA help his trade value?