The good news for the Grizzlies is that unlikely last year, Memphis got beyond the play-in round, upsetting the Golden State Warriors to earn the 8-seed in the Western Conference playoffs.
And while there is disappointment that the season ended so quickly after that, with a five-game loss to the top-seeded Utah Jazz, this Memphis roster is the third youngest in the NBA and is returning 13 players next season, so improvement should be on the way.
The big offseason focus, beyond taking that next step, will be on the $13 million team option for Justise Winslow. If the Grizzlies decline the option, they will have a projected $20 million to spend in free agency to bolster the budding roster. So what should they do?
Taking the next step
The Grizzlies get high marks for how they've rebuilt their roster in the aftermath of the "Grit and Grind" era. Trading away Marc Gasol and Mike Conley could have left Memphis stuck at the bottom of the competitive Western Conference for the foreseeable future.
Instead, the Grizzlies have retooled their roster with shrewd trades (Jonas Valanciunas, Grayson Allen and De'Anthony Melton), identifying the right talent in the draft (Ja Morant, Brandon Clarke, Jaren Jackson Jr., Desmond Bane, Xavier Tillman and Dillon Brooks) and going outside the box to sign restricted free agents to offer sheets (Kyle Anderson and Tyus Jones).
As a result, the Grizzlies have put together a roster that reached the play-in a year ago then got to the first round this year, and they don't have a single player earning more than $14 million.
Memphis has done everything right, but the reality is that it might not be good enough to get out of the Western Conference or even reach the conference finals.
The Grizzlies are young and would not be criticized if they took a conservative approach this offseason and relied on continuity: 13 players are under contract for next year, and they will add a lottery pick to their roster. They can also hope for a healthy season from Jackson, who was limited to 11 games this year.
Would another year of player development and a healthy Jackson be enough to push the Grizzlies into the top six in the West and avoid another trip to the play-in round? Perhaps, but teams operate in a three-year window, and if the Grizzlies stand pat this year, they'll face big questions the following offseason.
Valanciunas, Anderson, Jones and Winslow (if his team option is exercised) will be on expiring contracts in 2021-22. Memphis also has a financial decision to make with Jackson and Allen, both of whom are extension eligible this summer.
Would the Grizzlies package Anderson, Winslow, Brooks and multiple first-round picks (they have nine over the next seven years) to try to land the next disgruntled All-Star who wants out? It is not the character of this front office to do so, but that is the kind of move that could take them from being a fringe playoff team to a contender.
The downside is the risk involved if they swing and miss. Memphis would go from that play-in team to one sitting at the bottom of the standings.
The future of Justise Winslow
Memphis could have entered the 2020 offseason with cap space but instead made a move in February 2020 to acquire Winslow and the contract of Dion Waiters (who was immediately waived), then extended Brooks' contract in March, wiping out any potential cap space.
Now the team faces another decision on Winslow, who has a $13 million team option on the final year of his contract. If the Grizzlies pick that up, they'll operate as an over-the-cap team this summer. If they decline it and let Winslow walk, Memphis could open up $22 million in cap space.
Winslow was injured at the time he was acquired and didn't make his Grizzlies debut until this season, when he played in just 26 of Memphis' 72 regular-season games. Since the 2016-17 season, Winslow has missed 192 games with various injuries.
When he's been healthy, he's shown flashes of the potential that made him the No. 10 overall pick in 2015. However, this season he averaged 6.8 points per game -- his lowest since his rookie season -- shooting a career-low 35.2% from the field. He was a minus-6.4 while on the court, and the experiment in mid-April of benching backup point guard Tyus Jones in favor of Winslow was ineffective.
His impact this season represents a player on a minimum contract, not one earning $12 million. On the surface, the combination of his medical history and his play warrants that Memphis decline the option. However, when Memphis made the trade in 2020, it was with an eye toward the future.
Memphis should apply the same logic now that it did in February 2020. The appeal of having a healthy Winslow combined with a full offseason, including training camp, should outweigh cap flexibility.
Cap space sounds appealing, but Memphis already has 13 players under contract for 2021-22, and the free-agent class this offseason is uninspiring.
If Winslow reverts back to the player we saw in Miami, the Grizzlies will not only have a rotational player moving forward but also a trade chip based on his $13 million expiring contract.
The rookie extension of Jaren Jackson Jr.
Jackson should be in the category of Luka Doncic and Trae Young when we are talking about rookie extensions this offseason. Instead, he fits more with former No. 2 pick Marvin Bagley III.
Injuries have caused the 21-year-old Jackson to miss a combined 98 games over his first three seasons in the league. His rookie season was cut short with a right quad injury, and a right knee injury ended his second season last August. He miss 61 games this season while rehabbing the knee.
The tease is that when healthy, Jackson looks like the player who ranked No. 17 on ESPN's 25-under-25 list of top prospects in 2020. His sophomore season saw him average a career-high 17.4 points on 39.4% shooting from 3-point range.
Since his return in April, Jackson has been one of the Grizzlies' best players, despite playing only 21.4 minutes. Although he has struggled shooting from 3 (28.3%), he has excelled on the defensive end and still managed to average 14.3 points in 23 minutes a night.
Jackson is part of the future, and Memphis is now faced with a decision to extend him this offseason or allow him to become a restricted free agent in 2022. Because of his injuries, the Grizzlies can take a creative approach and add an Exhibit 3 (prior injury exclusion) to a new contract. This is comparable to what Orlando did with Jonathan Isaac and takes Memphis off the hook financially if Jackson suffers a long-term injury to that same right knee.
Jackson is not a max player, and rookie extensions occur when there is a compromise from both sides. The Grizzlies are operating from a position of strength considering that they are not competing against a team that has cap space and could sign Jackson to an offer sheet.
The sweet spot in reaching a new contract is in the four-year, $80 million range, $11 million higher than what Isaac received coming off a torn ACL. The $17.9 million cap hit would rank in the top 20 among starting power forwards and is $10 million less than his free-agent cap hold in 2022.
Offseason cap breakdown
Team needs
A healthy Jaren Jackson Jr.
Veteran stretch-4
Continued development of the young players
Resources to build the roster
The draft: first- and second-round picks in 2021
Future draft assets: Utah and Golden State first-round picks
All-NBA-level PG in Ja Morant
Exceptions: $9.5M midlevel and $3.7M biannual
Cash: $5.8 million to send or receive in a trade
Dates to watch
• Jontay Porter's $1.95 million contract has a July 20 trigger date that will see his guaranteed salary increase from $0 to $300K. However, because the new salary-cap year will not start until Aug. 3, the date will likely get amended to mid-August. Porter missed 39 games this season with a sore right knee and appeared in only nine games. He played nine games in the G League, averaging 7.4 points and 4.7 rebounds.
• The Grizzlies have until Aug. 1 to exercise the $13 million team option for Justise Winslow.
• The Grizzlies can extend the contracts of Jaren Jackson Jr. and Grayson Allen up to the last day before the start of the regular season.
• Memphis has until the start of the 2022-23 salary-cap calendar (likely in late June) to extend the contracts of Jonas Valanciunas, Tyus Jones and Winslow (if his option is exercised).
Restrictions
• Kyle Anderson has a 15% trade bonus. The value of the bonus is $1.49 million.
• Justise Winslow cannot be traded until the team option is exercised.
• Jontay Porter's contract counts as $0 in outgoing salary.
Extension candidates
• The MVP of the Grizzlies this season is not last year's Rookie of the Year, Ja Morant, but starting center Jonas Valanciunas. Valanciunas averaged a career high in rebounds (12.3) and led the NBA with a career-high 5.3 second-chance points per game. He has averaged a double-double (16.4 PPG, 11.7 RPG) in 151 games since being acquired by the Grizzlies in February 2018. Because the three-year, $45 million contract he signed in 2019 has declining year-over-year salaries, the maximum starting salary that Memphis can offer in an extension is $16.8 million. The total would come out to $75.3 million. Valanciunas has Bird rights, and Memphis can sign him to a larger contract as a free agent next summer.
• In addition to Jaren Jackson Jr., guard Grayson Allen is also rookie extension eligible. Acquired from the Jazz in the Mike Conley Jr. trade, Allen started 36 games this season, averaging a career-high 11 points and shooting 39.3% from 3. Considering that Memphis has Dillon Brooks and De'Anthony Melton under contract through at least 2022-23 and that Allen is a restricted free agent in 2022, there is no urgency to get a deal done unless it is midlevel type money ($9-10 million).
• The Grizzlies also have Justise Winslow, Tyus Jones and Kyle Anderson extension eligible. Anderson is in the last year of a four-year, $37.1 million deal and has been the Grizzlies' full-time starter at power forward this year in place of the injured Jackson. In his 61 starts, Anderson showed more of an offensive game, averaging a career-high 12.2 points on 46.3% from the field and 34.9% from 3. He has shot 58.2% on attempts inside 8 feet and 52.4% from 8 to 16 feet, per NBA.com. Despite the career year, Anderson is likely to be moved back to a reserve role in favor of Jackson, and a starting number on an extension should be at midlevel type money.
The draft
The Grizzlies have nine first-round picks over the next seven years -- all of their own, plus future firsts from Utah and Golden State. The Jazz first is top-six protected in 2022, top-three in 2023 and top-one in 2024. It will turn into a 2026 second-round pick if not conveyed in any of the three seasons. The Golden State first is top-four protected in 2024, top-one in 2025 and unprotected in 2026.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Charlotte selecting in July:
No. 14 (own): Alperen Sengun, PF/C, Turkey
No. 52 (from POR): David Johnson, PG, Louisville
This is the third draft for executive VP Zach Kleiman. Since taking over in 2019, Kleiman has made three draft-night trades that have strengthened the depth of the roster.
In 2019, the Grizzlies traded a 2024 second-round pick to Oklahoma City to move up two slots and select Brandon Clarke. Last November, in two separate trades, Memphis sent three future second-round picks for the last selection in the first round and the fifth pick in the second round (No. 35 overall). They would go on to draft Desmond Bane and Xavier Tillman.