There is no denying that the 2020-21 season could be described as a disappointment for the New Orleans Pelicans.
Despite Zion Williamson reaching his first All-Star game and the improved play from Lonzo Ball, New Orleans is headed to the lottery for a third straight season.
Before the season started, ESPN had projected Stan Van Gundy's squad to rack up 39 wins, good enough for sixth in the Western Conference. Instead the Pelicans finished below .500 and failed to qualify for even the NBA's expanded play-in tournament.
The season-ending injury to Williamson derailed any hopes for a play-in push over the final weeks, but New Orleans' inconsistency over the first five months of the season was what put the Pelicans on the outside looking in to begin with. After a 4-3 start, New Orleans failed to get back above .500 at any point in the season.
Now, with Williamson about to enter his third season without a playoff game under his belt, the offseason focus shifts to restricted free agents Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart and a league-high five draft picks in July, as David Griffin & Co. try to build around their franchise superstar.
Complementing Zion
When he was in charge of the Cavaliers, Griffin, now the Pelicans' president, made a unique observation about constructing a roster around LeBron James.
"You're basically charged with the legacy of Babe Ruth, and it's our responsibility to allow that legacy to grow and evolve," Griffin told The Vertical in January 2017. "So it's almost like a sacred trust that the kid gives you. He's so good, in his own right, by himself, that he sort of mandates you have to be a title contender just by his presence alone ... and if you don't capitalize on the years he has left, then shame on us."
Fast forward four years and Griffin has once again been entrusted to build a title contender around a generational superstar in Williamson. The former No. 1 pick is in the middle of a team friendly four-year rookie contract, and history has shown that no player has ever turned down a rookie max extension: Williamson is eligible next offseason.
However, New Orleans learned the hard way with Anthony Davis that the clock to keep a franchise player starts not when the player's second contract begins (for Williamson that would be in 2023) but when they are drafted. Two years have ticked off that clock, and the Pelicans do not have a playoff appearance to show for it.
The cupboard is far from bare as it relates to how this roster can improve, but New Orleans cannot afford to be sitting in the same spot in the standings a year from now, which would mean missing the playoffs again with the team's franchise player set to enter the last year of his contract.
Griffin and the Pelicans are fully aware how valuable Williamson is to the franchise and the city of New Orleans. Just look at Griffin's comments after Williamson was diagnosed with a season-ending finger injury.
"I'm really frustrated because this was avoidable. We told the NBA through every means available to us, through sending in film, through speaking to everybody in the officials department and everybody in basketball operations, that the way they were officiating Zion was going to get him injured," Griffin said. "And quite frankly, he's injured because of the open season that there's been on Zion Williamson in the paint.
The restricted free agents: Ball and Hart
For the Pelicans, bypassing contract extensions for Ball and Hart in late December was not an indication that either player is not part of the team's future. Instead it showed why a rookie extension -- if you are not a max player -- is the toughest contract to negotiate for both the team and the player (or his agent).
Unlike the free-agent period, when the Pelicans would be competing against teams with cap room and perhaps waiting on an offer sheet, the Pelicans were bidding against themselves and the only competition was a 6 p.m. ET deadline the day prior to the start of the regular season.
Although Ball and Hart are now restricted free agents, allowing the Pelicans to match on an offer sheet, the goalposts have moved since last December. Entering the offseason, the Pelicans will now have to weigh the below options on how they approach restricted free agency:
1. What do the finances look like if New Orleans takes an aggressive approach with both players?
Even with the $18.1 million owed to Eric Bledsoe, the $17 million extension for Steven Adams and a lottery pick, the Pelicans are still $40 million below the luxury tax before free agency begins.
If they take an aggressive approach with both players -- a four-year, $85 million Ball contract that starts at $19 million and a four-year, $50 million contract for Hart -- New Orleans would be $9.6 million below the luxury tax with two open roster spots. Ball's starting salary of $19 million would be slightly lower than the $21.2 million salary of Raptors guard Fred VanVleet but the same amount in total dollars: $85 million.
The first-year salary would rank 18th among starting point guards and 12th as it relates to starting shooting guards (depending on how you want to classify Ball).
In this scenario, using the full $9.5 million midlevel exception and filling out the roster with a $1.6 million minimum-salary player would put New Orleans into the tax (roughly $1.5 million over). The Pelicans would then have the entire season to get under the threshold. As an example, the Milwaukee Bucks started this past season $1.8 million over the tax and, after a series of trades, are now under the tax line.
Keep in mind that New Orleans has never paid the luxury tax in franchise history.
Another thing to consider is that moving the $18 million salary of Bledsoe does not immediately give the Pelicans cap space to sign free agents other than Ball, Hart and whomever they target with their midlevel and biannual exceptions. The only way for New Orleans to have room is if Bledsoe is traded and their restricted free agents are not brought back.
2. Does New Orleans let the market set what a new contract will be?
This is not 2016, when the cap spiked and 28 teams had space.
Instead, with likely only a 3% salary cap increase from $109 million to $112 million, six teams -- Charlotte, Miami, New York, Oklahoma City, San Antonio and Toronto -- project to have at least $20 million in cap space. If the Raptors re-sign Kyle Lowry and the Thunder elect to preserve their large trade exceptions and act as a team over the cap, the number shrinks to four. Remove Charlotte (LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier and Devonte' Graham) and San Antonio (Dejounte Murray and Derrick White) and now we are looking at two teams who could look to sign Ball and Hart away from New Orleans outright: Miami and New York.
Despite that small pool of teams with room, Ball and Hart should have suitors outside of the Pelicans.
Ball is only 23 years old and has transitioned from playing point guard this season to off the ball. The adjustment has resulted in the former No. 2 pick averaging a career high in points (14.0), field goal percentage (41.9%) and 3-point percentage (37.5). Ball also had 16 games with at least seven assists (including a season-high 17 against Portland), despite playing alongside Bledsoe and Williamson's taking a more active role at point guard. He ranks 10th in the NBA in Real Plus-Minus.
Since Hart was drafted by the Lakers in 2017, the 26-year-old has garnered a reputation as the ultimate "glue guy". He has played every position except for center and can start (65 games) or come off the bench as a sixth man (177 games).
Hart, who suffered a season-ending thumb injury in early April, finished first in rebounds (8.0 per game) among all small forwards.
At the minimum, Hart will have teams lined up with their $9.5 million midlevel exception and should see offers in the $12-13 million range.
According to ProFitX, the projected high on a new contract in 2021-22 for Hart would start at $11.8 million.
Note: ProFitX is a dynamic financial and performance index powered by Artificial Intelligence with front-office optics displaying 17 visual and time-series models for 480+ NBA athletes. The Athledex models historical, dynamic and future performance data to monitor and project insights on contracts, performance, injuries, team fit, development and potential.
3. What happens if there is a stalemate in negotiations?
If the Pelicans play hard ball, the teams with cap space dry up and nothing develops in regards to a sign-and-trade, Ball has the fallback of signing the one-year, $14.4 million qualifying offer. Although it would be a last resort, Ball (who does not turn 24 until October) would then be an unrestricted free agent in 2022.
Because there are only a handful of teams who have cap space, a sign-and-trade would be an option if both sides decide that a breakup is necessary.
A sign-and-trade allows the Pelicans to recoup some type of compensation (either in a player or draft picks) and gives Ball more options to choose from.
A team such as New York could sign Ball outright with cap space, but a sign-and-trade assures them that New Orleans will not match. We saw that in 2019 when the Pacers sent three draft picks (a first and two seconds) to Milwaukee for Malcolm Brogdon.
Of course, New York could roll the dice with Ball and sign him to an offer sheet without giving up compensation. However, an offer sheet would tie up the Knicks' cap space for 48 hours.
Offseason cap breakdown
The Pelicans have $91.2M in guaranteed salary but are over the $112M salary cap because of the free-agent holds of Ball, Hart and their own first-round pick.
They would still be over the cap in the scenario that an offer sheet on Ball is not matched.
Team needs
Starting and backup shooting guard
Defensive-minded wings
Stretch 4
Resources to build the roster
The draft: one first-round and four second-round picks
Future draft assets: four first-round picks (from Lakers and Bucks) and the right to swap with LAL (2023) and MIL (2024 and 2026)
Exceptions: $9.5M midlevel and $3.7M biannual exception
$5.8M in cash to send or receive in a trade
Dates to watch
• The Pelicans have until Aug. 1 to submit one-year qualifying offers for Ball and Hart. Ball averaged more than 34 starts over the past two seasons and is eligible to receive a $14.4 million offer. Hart fell 407 minutes short of reaching starter criteria, and his qualifying offer is $5.2 million. The one-year offer will make each player a restricted free agent, allowing the Pelicans to match an offer sheet from an opposing team.
• Former second-round pick Didi Louzada has an Aug. 1 deadline on his $1.5 million team option. The contract remains non-guaranteed if the option is exercised.
• Wenyen Gabriel has a $1.8 million non-guaranteed contract. It becomes fully guaranteed if he is on the roster beyond Jan. 7, 2022.
Restrictions
• Brandon Ingram has a 15% trade bonus.
• Louzada cannot be traded until his team option is exercised. His contract and Wenyen Gabriel's contract would count as zero in outgoing salary because they are not guaranteed.
Extension candidates
• There are no players on the roster who are eligible for an extension.
The draft
Outside of the Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets, no team has more draft assets than New Orleans over the next seven years.
Besides their own first over the next seven seasons, the Pelicans own an additional four first-round picks (two each from the Lakers and Bucks) and three sets of swap rights (one in 2023 with the Lakers and a 2024 and 2026 with Milwaukee).
If the Pelicans are going to shed the Bledsoe contract, it is likely they will need to attach a first-round pick in the trade, but they can add protections on the unprotected picks they possess from Los Angeles and Milwaukee. For example, New Orleans can trade Bledsoe and a top-10 protected Milwaukee first in 2025 to Oklahoma City. If the Bucks' pick falls within the top 10, New Orleans would retain it and send other draft compensation to the Thunder.
The Pelicans have the most draft picks this July of any team: their own first and four seconds.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have New Orleans selecting in July:
No. 10 (own): Scottie Barnes, SF/PF, Florida State
No. 36 (via CLE): Miles McBride, PG, West Virginia
No. 40 (via WAS): Austin Reaves, PG/SG, Oklahoma
No. 41 (own): Rokas Jokubaitis, PG, Lithuania
No. 51 (via DAL): David Johnson, PG, Louisville
However, it's not likely the Pelicans will take four guards -- or four players at all -- in the second round, especially after selecting Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Kira Lewis Jr. in the past two seasons. With four second-round picks and limited roster spots, expect New Orleans to either package multiple picks to move up in the draft or move out of the second round with the focus on adding future draft picks.
Since taking over in 2019, Griffin has been part of six draft-related trades, most notably in 2019, when the Pelicans traded the No. 4 pick in the draft (acquired from the Lakers in the Davis trade) to Atlanta for No. 8 (Jaxson Hayes), No. 17 (Nickeil Alexander-Walker) and No. 35 (Louzada).
Last year, New Orleans traded the No. 39 and No. 42 picks for two future second-rounders. With four seconds in July, expect the Pelicans to once again be active.