The expansion to include a play-in tournament was thought to bring hope for a Sacramento franchise that last made the playoffs in 2006.
However, with less than two weeks left, BPI gives Sacramento just a 12% chance of sneaking into the play-in tournament. With star rookie Tyrese Haliburton expected to miss the rest of the year, it appears the Kings will find themselves heading to the lottery for a 15th straight season.
However, all is not doom and gloom for the franchise with the NBA's longest active postseason drought.
Sacramento has a franchise guard in De'Aaron Fox, one of the top rookies with Haliburton and a rookie GM -- Monte McNair -- who did his understudy learning from Daryl Morey in Houston.
The focus this offseason now shifts to the future of head coach Luke Walton, free agent Richaun Holmes, bolstering a bench that ranked last in the NBA, and of course the July draft with yet again another lottery pick.
We are not going to give McNair a report card in his first season in Sacramento. The former Rockets exec was hired in mid-September and took a patient approach when it came to analyzing the roster and coaching staff in his first year.
Although the Kings did not match the offer sheet to restricted free agent Bogdan Bogdanovic, there was no drastic overhaul to the roster and coaching staff before or during the shortened season.
McNair and his front office should get credit for the draft selection of Haliburton in late November. After falling to the late lottery (12th pick overall), Haliburton is on his way to earning All-Rookie honors and should finish in the top three in Rookie of the Year voting.
Now entering the offseason, here are the decisions that Sacramento is faced with:
The future of head coach Luke Walton
Since current Nuggets coach Michael Malone was fired with an 11-13 record in 2014, the Kings have had a rotating door of head coaches: Tyrone Corbin, George Karl, Dave Joerger and now Luke Walton.
Walton was hired by former executive Vlade Divac in 2019 after being fired by the Los Angeles Lakers, and was inherited by the new front office.
While we will never advocate for a coach to be fired, the harsh reality is that Walton has been given a full (though shortened) season to prove why he should remain the coach, and has been met with mixed results.
There was a four-game winning streak in early February, which included wins over the playoff-bound Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets and LA Clippers. There also was a stretch of games when the Kings won seven of eight (6-1 after Marvin Bagley III was injured) in mid-March and climbed to three games from .500.
But the stretch of solid basketball in mid-March was followed by a nine-game losing streak and 3-12 record. The losses included Minnesota twice, Detroit and a depleted Lakers roster. They also had a nine-game losing streak in February that saw the Kings fall from one game over .500 to eight games under.
This all came on the heels of a disappointing 3-5 showing during the seeding games in the bubble last year.
There is a disturbing trend that each time the Kings have a small amount of success, they take two steps back. Is that on the coach and his staff, the roster, or a combination of both?
Walton has two years left on his contract and if there is a time for McNair to make a coaching change, it is now. For one, the new Kings front office is still in its honeymoon period, meaning ownership is more likely to sign off on a change now rather than next offseason, even if that means eating what is left on the contract.
Second, if Walton does return and subsequently is let go in the middle of next season, then 2021-22 gets chalked up as another wasted year.
The bench
If there was a lesson learned this season by the front office, it is that roster spots six to 15 cannot be dominated by player-development projects and dead-weight contracts.
Heading into the regular season, the Kings' reserves included:
• Rookies Haliburton, Robert Woodard II and Jahmi'us Ramsey
• Second year players DaQuan Jeffries and Justin James
• The non-guaranteed contract (eventually waived) of Glenn Robinson III
Veterans Cory Joseph and Hassan Whiteside provided experience, but Jabari Parker (a former No. 2 overall pick) and Nemanja Bjelica (Sacramento's starting power forward in 2019-20) were ineffective.
After averaging just 14.8 minutes over the first 10 games, Bjelica went on to record 14 straight DNPs and was eventually traded to Miami. Parker played in only three games (a result of a back injury and personal reasons) before he was waived after the trade deadline.
As a result, the Sacramento bench ranked 29th in points (31.2), 28th in rebounding (13.0) and 26th in plus-minus (-2.7) before the trade deadline, when Delon Wright, Maurice Harkless and Terence Davis were acquired in three separate trades.
This offseason, the Kings will need to continue to add NBA-level free agents who can contribute right away.
They began laying groundwork for that before this season ended, signing former first-round pick Damian Jones to a two-year contract and following up by adding Chimezie Metu on a three-year deal.
Each player gives them needed NBA experience while maintaining flexibility for the Kings. The contracts are non-guaranteed, allowing Sacramento to open a roster spot if needed. If the Kings waive the non-guaranteed deal of Justin James (who has played just 6.7 minutes per game in 29 appearances this season), they can enter the offseason with four open roster spots, accounting for their first-round pick.
Because they are over the salary cap, the Kings have the $9.5 million midlevel, $3.9 million biannual and minimum exception available to use in free agency (the same as this past offseason).
They can bring back Davis, who will become a restricted free agent if the Kings tender him a $2.1 million qualifying offer.
In 17 games in a Sacramento uniform, Davis has averaged 17.9 minutes and 7.9 points. He scored a career-high 27 points in early March against Milwaukee and followed that with 23 against Dallas.
Davis has early Bird rights and the Kings can sign him up to the average player salary ($11 million) without dipping into their midlevel exception.
Harkless, 27, has found a new life in Sacramento after finding himself out of the rotation in Miami. In the 17 games since he was acquired, including 11 as a starter, he is averaging 6.2 points in 23.9 minutes. He scored a season-high 20 points in a loss to Minnesota.
Although Harkless is restricted by non-Bird rights (the result of signing a one-year contract), the Kings can offer him a contract up to $4.3 million (120% of his $3.6 million salary in 2020-21).
One option outside of their available exceptions is to trade Harrison Barnes ($20.3M salary in 2021-22) or Buddy Hield ($22.8M) for two or three players who can bolster their depth. The downside would be losing a proven starter for bench support.
One scenario the Kings have to be wary of is starting center Richaun Holmes leaving in free agency, which would force Sacramento to use some of its midlevel exception to sign a replacement, rather than using it to add a wing defender or depth at forward.
When the Kings signed Holmes to a two-year contract in 2019, it was thought that he would become their backup center. Instead, injuries to Bagley in the past two seasons resulted in Holmes starting 88 games, averaging 13 points and 8.5 rebounds.
Because Holmes has early Bird rights, the most that Sacramento can offer in the first year is roughly $11 million ($1.5 million more than what another team could offer with the midlevel exception) and it has to be for a minimum of two seasons.
The $11 million contract is on pace with his salary projection, according to ProFitX.
League rules prevent the Kings from signing Holmes to a one-year, $11 million contract that would allow him to establish full Bird rights and sign a more lucrative contract in 2022.
The rookie extension of Marvin Bagley III
In a perfect world Bagley would agree to a long-term extension on the first day of free agency.
The former No. 2 overall pick has averaged 14.5 points and 7.4 rebounds per game over his first three seasons while shooting 50% from the field. But he has, he's missed more than 100 games due to injuries in that span, including 25 this season, leaving his future uncertain.
Bagley also has struggled getting to the free throw line (2.9 attempts), blocking shots (0.5 this season) and of course, on the defensive end, posting a 119.3 defensive rating this season.
The Kings front office should not (and likely will not) commit to a lucrative contract based on a small body of work in his first three seasons and his injury history.
The ProFitX projection on a Bagley extension number is a high of $9.4 million -- lower than his $11.3 million contract for 2021-22 and comparable to the midlevel exception in 2022-23.
The 23-point, 9-rebound performance in a recent win at Dallas is a reason why Bagley will likely bet on himself next year and not take what he would perceive as a discount even with his injury history.
Note: ProFitX is a dynamic financial and performance index powered by artificial intelligence with front-office optics displaying 17 visual and time-series models for 480+ NBA athletes. The Athledex models historical, dynamic & future performance data to monitor and project insights on contracts, performance, injuries, team fit, development, and potential.
Offseason cap breakdown
Sacramento is an in-between team when it comes to the cap.
Although they have $98 million in guaranteed contracts, the Kings are over the cap when accounting for their first-round pick and the $6.5 million free-agent hold of Richaun Holmes.
Holmes has early Bird rights and the maximum that Sacramento can sign him to is a starting salary of $10.5M.
Team needs
Bagley to stay healthy
Starting small forward (Barnes is a PF) and center
Depth at every position
Resources to build the roster
The draft: lottery pick and second round
Exceptions: $9.5M midlevel and $3.7M biannual
$5.9M in cash to send or receive in a trade
Dates to watch
• The Kings have until 15 days (likely sometime in mid-August) after the first day of the moratorium period to guarantee the $1.8 million contract of Justin James. The former second-round pick has played sparingly over the past two seasons, averaging 6.3 minutes and 2.2 points.
• Damian Jones and Chimezie Metu both have non-guaranteed contracts for 2021-22. Jones started two games, averaging 4.3 points and 3.3 rebounds. His $1.9 million contract becomes guaranteed if he is not waived by Aug. 10. Metu has two sets of trigger dates on his $1.76 million contract. The contract has $881,398 in protection if he is not waived by Aug. 10. It becomes fully guaranteed if he is not waived by Dec. 1.
Restrictions
• The poison pill restriction of De'Aaron Fox will get lifted on Aug. 3.
• The Damian Jones, Chemzie Metu and Justin James contracts have no trade value until their contracts are guaranteed.
Extension candidates
• Two years after signing a four-year $72 million contract, Harrison Barnes is eligible to tack on an additional three seasons to his contract. The 28-year-old veteran is having one of his more efficient seasons -- averaging 15.6 points on 48.8% from the field and 36.5% from three. Because he has two seasons left, the deadline to extend Barnes is the last day before the start of the regular season. The lone restriction when it comes to an extension is that the first year cannot exceed $22 million (a 120% increase off his $18.3 million salary in 2022-23). Barnes would have a six-month trade restriction if he was extended.
• Acquired right before the trade deadline, Delon Wright is entering the last year of a three-year, $27 million contract. The maximum extension that Wright can sign is for a total of four years and $45.8 million in new money.
The draft
The Kings entered the season with the possibility of having four draft picks in July: their own first and three seconds.
However, at the trade deadline, Sacramento sent Toronto two of the seconds (Memphis and the L.A. Lakers), in two separate trades (Delon Wright and Terence Davis).
The Kings own all their future firsts.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Sacramento selecting in July:
No. 9 (own): Franz Wagner, SF, Michigan
No. 39 (own): Roko Prkacin, PF, Croatia
In his first draft, new GM Monte McNair orchestrated two trades. The first was when he moved back five slots in the second round (No. 35 to 40) to select Robert Woodard II. As part of the trade, the Kings received a 2022 second-round pick from the Grizzlies (the less favorable of the Bulls' or Pistons' pick).
Sacramento also traded the 52nd pick (the rights to KJ Martin) for $1 million and a 2021 second from the Lakers (eventually traded to Detroit as part of the Delon Wright/Cory Joseph swap).