Things can change awfully quick when it comes to roster building in the NBA.
It was only a month ago that many wondered if the LA Clippers' championship window was set to close. The team trailed the Dallas Mavericks 2-0 in its first-round series and fell behind 30-11 in Game 3.
After recovering to win that series, the Clippers were once again down 2-0 to the Utah Jazz in the second round and on the brink of an offseason full of questions and doubt.
Instead, the perception of the Clippers' roster now is a team that was resilient and mentally tough enough to reach the Western Conference finals against the Phoenix Suns without its best player, Kawhi Leonard, who did not play the final eight games of the postseason because of a right knee injury.
Now as the Clippers transition to offseason mode, the big questions start with Leonard's health and contract status.
Kawhi Leonard
In December, Leonard was asked about his player option in 2021-22.
"Obviously, if I'm healthy, the best decision is to decline the player option," Leonard said. "But that doesn't mean I'm leaving or staying. I'm focused on the season, like I said. We'll talk about that when the time is right."
The smart play has always been for Leonard to opt in to his $36 million contract and then sign a four-year, $181.5 million extension that would start in 2022-23. Although Leonard would lose $3.3 million in 2021-22 (the difference between his salary and 35% of the cap), he would be rewarded with a $50.2 million salary in the last year. Because Leonard has been with the Clippers for only two years, he doesn't have full Bird rights. The Early Bird rule would restrict Leonard to a four-year, $176.2 million contract if he declines the option.
This same logic applies now, after it was revealed that Leonard suffered a partially torn ACL in his right knee which required offseason surgery. Even coming off an injury, Leonard holds tremendous leverage over the Clippers, who gutted their future when they signed him and traded for Paul George two years ago. The deal for George cost them unprotected first-round picks in 2022, 2024 and 2026, and pick swap rights in 2023 and 2025. They recently committed $190 million to George over the next five years and have no clear path to build out the roster if they do not commit to Leonard long term even if the injury will keep him out for a significant portion of the 2021-22 season..
There are still risks involved for the Clippers in signing Leonard to a long-term deal. LA could be stuck with a contract that averages $44 million over the next four seasons if he does not return to full strength. Such a contract would not be insurable, meaning the Clippers would not get reimbursed a portion of his salary if he misses all of next season. However, the risk is warranted if Leonard returns at an All-NBA level, as Kevin Durant did with Brooklyn after missing the entire first season of his contract with the Nets.
Leonard can also go the short-term route by declining his $36 million option and signing a two-year, $80.6 million contract with a player option for the second year. Leonard would then decline the option in 2022 and sign the largest contract in NBA history: $235 million over five years. This is a high-risk approach from Leonard considering that he will turn 31 in the summer of 2022 and has had two serious injuries in his career: the first in San Antonio in 2017 and now a knee with the Clippers. There is no guarantee that $235 million will be waiting for him.
What is next with the roster
How the Clippers take that next step with their roster is dependent on a healthy Leonard and how much owner Steve Ballmer is willing to spend this offseason in free agency or acquiring players in trades.
Heading into the offseason, nine of the Clippers players who were on the roster that lost to the Suns in the conference finals are under contract for next season. Leonard and Serge Ibaka have player options as well, meaning the Clippers could bring 11 players back -- representing a combined $148 million in salary, $12 million over the luxury tax line.
Because they are already over the luxury tax, the sign-and-trade option is all but eliminated. For example, trading Ivica Zubac and Luke Kennard to the Raptors for Kyle Lowry is not allowed because the Clippers' post-trade salary would exceed the $142 million luxury tax apron.
A positive is that the Clippers can exceed the luxury tax threshold to bring back Reggie Jackson because they have Early Bird rights on him. The guard can sign a contract starting at $10.3 million, but it must be for a minimum of two seasons (not including a player option). In the 19 playoff games (including 17 starts), Jackson averaged 17.8 points and shot 40.8% from 3.
Another starter, Nicolas Batum, has non-Bird rights and the maximum that he could sign for is $3.1 million or the $5.9 million taxpayer midlevel exception. Keep in mind that Batum will earn $9.0 million from Charlotte in 2021-22 and 2022-23.
The Clippers will have their $5.9 million taxpayer midlevel exception available, but using the full amount would cost an additional $18 million owed toward their luxury tax bill. Would Ballmer see that cost as the necessary expense to complete a championship roster?
Considering that the Clippers owe the Thunder an unprotected first in 2022, there is no incentive not to improve. It is almost like the Clippers are at the mercy of how much draft capital is owed; they have to keep on spending to justify the trade.
Ownership committed $56 million to Kennard in an extension before the season, only to see the shooting guard fall out of the rotation in the first five games of the Dallas series. Kennard would eventually find a role, shooting better than 50% from 3 in a 10-game stretch starting from the Game 7 first-round elimination match and into the conference semis and finals.
The Clippers do have their own first-round pick this year and eight future second-round picks to help bolster the roster, either by trading the picks for veteran help or drafting young players.
Although the drafting of Mfiondu Kabengele should be criticized, former second-round pick Terance Mann has proven good enough to have been selected in the first round. In the playoffs, Mann averaged 7.6 points per game and scored 39 points in a series-clinching win against the Jazz.
Offseason cap breakdown
Team needs
Depth, if Ibaka and Batum leave
Resources to build the roster
Expiring contracts: Patrick Beverley and Rajon Rondo
The draft: first-round pick and eight future second-round picks
Exceptions: $5.9 million tax midlevel
Cash: $5.8 million to send or receive in a trade
Dates to watch
• Ibaka, Leonard's former teammate in Toronto, signed a two-year contract for the full midlevel exception last offseason but has a player option on the second year of the deal. He has until Aug. 1 to opt in to his $9.7 million contract for next season. Ibaka started 39 games, averaging 10.9 points and 6.7 rebounds, before missing 30 games with lower back tightness, the longest injury-related absence of his career. He returned for the playoffs but saw only 18 minutes of action across Games 1 and 2 before missing the rest of the postseason due to his back. If Ibaka declines his option and becomes a free agent, the Clippers have only the $5.9 million tax midlevel exception to replace him.
• The $1.8 million contract of Mann will become guaranteed on Aug. 1. The former second-round pick is guaranteed to be on the roster for next season and will not be on the waiver wire on the first day of August.
Restrictions
• The Clippers are still hard-capped ($1.7 million below) and will see the restriction be lifted on Aug. 3.
• The poison pill restriction on Kennard's extension will be lifted on Aug. 3.
• The non-guaranteed contracts of Mann and Yogi Ferrell do not count as outgoing salary in a trade.
• Ibaka and Leonard have player options and cannot be traded until they are exercised.
• The Clippers cannot trade their 2021 first-round pick until they make the selection (they can trade the rights to a player once the pick has been made).
Extension candidates
• The Clippers have a decision to make when it comes to Mann: They can elect to extend him for an additional four seasons, or they can let him play out the 2021-22 season and make him a restricted free agent next summer. Mann does have a team option for 2022-23 on his current deal, though the Clippers would likely decline the option, making him a restricted free agent if there is no new agreement reached before then. If the option is exercised, the Clippers would have a player on a low-cost salary ($1.9 million) but also one who would be an unrestricted free agent in 2023.
• Beverley is also eligible for an extension. He is slated to make $14.3 million in the final year of the three-year, $40 million deal he signed in 2019.
The draft
The July draft represents the lone time in the next seven years that the Clippers have outright control of their first-round pick. The Thunder have the Clippers' unprotected first-round picks in 2022, 2024 and 2026. They also have the rights to swap first-round picks with the Clippers in 2023 and 2025.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have the Clippers selecting in July:
No. 25 (own): Trey Murphy III, PF/SF, Virginia
The Clippers made two draft-night transactions last November. As part of a three-team trade with Brooklyn and Detroit, the Clippers acquired Kennard and five second-round picks, sending Landry Shamet to Brooklyn. They then traded one of those second-round picks (from Detroit) for the draft rights to Daniel Oturu, the No. 33 overall pick.