Whether it's superstars like Luka Doncic and LeBron James, an up-and-comer like LaMelo Ball or successful vets like Khris Middleton and Joe Ingles, 6-foot-8 playmakers are NBA gold. They come in all different shapes, with varying levels of success, but the emergence of that prototype is a big reason a prospect such as Cade Cunningham is so highly coveted.
While the 2021 NBA draft has been lauded for its incredible star power toward the top, there's a jumbo playmaker projected outside the top five who fits the modern NBA perfectly. Meet 6-foot-8 Australian point guard Josh Giddey, a potential top-10 pick who just completed a record-breaking season in the Australian NBL for the Adelaide 36ers.
With three triple-doubles in his past six games, Giddey is now averaging 13.8 points, 9.2 rebounds and 9.4 assists per 40 minutes through 27 games, rarefied stats for an 18-year-old prospect at any level of professional basketball. Giddey recently joined Ball as the only 18-year-olds in NBL history to record back-to-back triple-doubles, while reminding some NBA evaluators of fellow Aussie great Ingles.
"I heard him say in an interview that he compares himself to me a little bit, and I was like, dude, you're crazy, because you're so much f---ing better than I was at that age," Ingles told ESPN with a laugh.
Giddey isn't a carbon copy of Ingles. Nor is he expected to follow in Ball's path by going in the top three and posting a Rookie of the Year-type season. Still, Giddey has the clear attention of NBA scouts and is the favorite to be the first international prospect drafted in 2021. How did Giddey get to this point? Are the Ingles comps underselling his NBA outlook? What type of player can he be at the next level?
MORE: The Jokic effect on the 2021 NBA draft
Meet Josh Giddey
As Giddey would be the first to tell you, 12 months ago he was just hoping to crack an NBL rotation. Now, he sits at No. 13 in our top 100 with the draft buzz growing as he closes out a stellar rookie campaign.
"It's been surreal," he said of his rapid ascension. "It still hasn't really processed with me."
Giddey was raised in a basketball household. His father, Warrick, played more than 400 games in the NBL, serving mostly as a utility big man. His mother, Kim, played professionally. His older sister plays at Oral Roberts. Both of his younger sisters play in the Melbourne youth program, following in his footsteps. Despite all of his recent success, Giddey was cut from his "state" or " junior" teams as a teenager. It wasn't until Basketball Without Borders Asia in India in 2018 that he really introduced himself to scouts at the NBA Academy program. Measuring 6-foot-4½ and weighing 171 pounds at the time, Giddey impressed with his passing and feel for the game but looked far from a future NBA lottery pick.
"He made the All-Star team, but I don't think any of our coaches or staff came away saying, OK, this guy's going to be a first-round draft pick," said Chris Ebersole, NBA senior director of International Basketball Operations.
Giddey eventually accepted a scholarship to the NBA Global Academy and first caught our eye in April 2019 in Minneapolis at a Final Four showcase event. I wrote at the time: "Has real game. Wonder how he'll look against athletes but using his size to get to the rim at this level. Slow but get to his spots. I'm a fan."
Since then, Giddey has impressed at various events, including the Tarkanian Classic in Las Vegas and the Basketball Without Borders Global Camp in Chicago during All-Star weekend. Although no one was quite sure of his NBA upside, staffers always raved about his against-the-grain style and unselfish nature. Even so, Giddey seemed headed to the NCAA, following Aussie greats before him such as Andrew Bogut, Ben Simmons and Josh Green. The general consensus was that Giddey needed a few years at the college ranks before cementing himself on the NBA radar. Even as recently as February 2020 at BWB Chicago, Giddey wasn't viewed as a surefire NBA player.
The camp featured projected 2021 second-rounders such as Ariel Hukporti and Juhann Begarin and projected 2022 first-rounder Jean Montero, yet Giddey was hardly the best prospect. After BWB, Jonathan Givony wrote: "Giddey showed both sides of the coin in Chicago, impressing NBA scouts with his feel and creativity while also confirming lingering questions about his physical profile and upside. ... But he certainly has the ambidexterity, vision and creativity to make it in today's NBA."
Joe Ingles 2.0?
Back in 2006, a then-17-year-old Ingles went for 29 points in his first ever NBL game with the South Dragons. Despite a strong NBL career from 2006 to 2009, it wasn't until Ingles demonstrated his ability to produce at the highest levels in Europe -- Barcelona and Maccabi Tel Aviv -- that he was able to latch on in the NBA as a free agent at the age of 27.
"A lot of my talent was that I was OK and good at a lot of things but I wasn't great at anything," Ingles said. "It wasn't like, this team needs to bring me over because I'm an elite 3-point shooter or an elite defender or a playmaker."
Whereas Ingles didn't have one elite skill to bring to the NBA floor as an 18-year-old, Giddey is already arguably the best passer in the 2021 draft class, which should translate from day one in the NBA. Watching film with him over Zoom, he sees everything a step ahead. Although not always as flashy as a Ball or Auburn standout Sharife Cooper, Giddey is unselfish with his hit-aheads.
"It's almost kind of like what people saw with LaMelo in the NBL like, kicking the ball ahead regardless of who it was," Ingles said of Giddey. "If it was the right play to make, he was making it."
Giddey isn't a knockdown shooter or the most dynamic shot-creator, but he already has an NBA superpower to offer with his tremendous court vision and ability to manage the game. He can deliver pinpoint passes with either hand. He sees over the top of the defense with soccer-style passes to the roll man or weakside corner. He talks about manipulating the weakside defense with his eyes. He mentions the value of having an aggressive roll man to open up his shooters.
While Giddey's 29.2% 3-point shooting might not remind people of the Joe Ingles who is leading the NBA in true shooting percentage, Ingles wasn't always a knockdown shooter, making a Giddey-like 31.8% of his 3s as an NBL rookie 15 years ago.
"Joe was way more like Josh than what he might remember," said Marty Clarke, the NBA's Global Academy technical director and a former Saint Mary's College assistant. Clarke also served as the head coach of the Australian Institute of Sport and played a key role in the development of Ingles, Bogut, Patty Mills, Aron Baynes and Matthew Dellavedova.
"Joe wasn't a great shooter back then. Now, he's a driller. It's lights out. I think a lot of people get to a level and think they're done. That's where Joe is always working for the next thing, 'What's my next edge?' And I think Josh will be exactly the same."
After Ingles sent him a congratulatory text when he signed in the NBL, Giddey began to reach out with questions about film study or decision-making in certain situations. Ingles will fire up Adelaide games at 3 a.m. after a long NBA road trip to see how Giddey -- and the rest of the young Australian prospects -- are progressing. Although Ingles never had this type of draft buzz as an 18-year-old and Giddey won't have to work his way through the EuroLeague to get onto an NBA floor, as 6-foot-8 Aussie playmakers with an elite feel for the game and an understated competitive drive, the comparison is more than warranted.
"We both aren't explosive athletes, but we kind of get by on IQ and feel for the game," said Giddey, who has embraced the comparison. "Joe's just such a smart player. He sees the game before it actually unfolds. His ability to kind of pick teams apart and hit the right guy at the right time is really cool. Joe's definitely someone I watch and kind of take parts out of his game and try to put them into mine."
Walking LaMelo's path
With Ball, R.J. Hampton and Jae'Sean Tate all having varying degrees of success in the NBA, teams are getting a better handle on just how NBL production translates to the next level, as there's far more data than when prospects like Terrance Ferguson and even Brian Bowen played Down Under. Ball is the most recent case study. While he is more efficient in the NBA than he was in Australia, Ball's per-40 minute numbers with the Charlotte Hornets are almost identical to his per-40 minutes in 12 games with the Illawarra Hawks.
"He shocked everyone with what he did here," Giddey said of Ball. "It was amazing to watch. It's also cool to see the translation he's made from playing in the NBL to then going to the NBA and still being able to have the same impact that he had here. Some of the passes that he makes, you can't even see it coming. He's a really special talent, and to see he's come through the same pathway as me, it's really cool to watch."
The same could be said for Hampton, who averaged 17.1 points, 7.4 rebounds and 4.7 assists per 40 with the New Zealand Breakers through 15 games and who is now averaging 17.8-7.5-4.1 per 40 in 25 games with the Orlando Magic. Role and opportunity are clear factors here, and Tate's NBL numbers understandably far surpass his production with the Houston Rockets. But there's becoming a comfort level with evaluating prospects from the NBL because of the growing track record, along with the fact that teams are familiar with names like Bryce Cotton, Casper Ware, Jock Landale and Isaac Humphries. As ESPN writer Kevin Pelton told me in an email, "The results from Ball/Hampton/Tate should upgrade what we think about the NBL."
With that in mind, how does Giddey's production stack up? Pelton told us that Giddey, before his recent shooting slump, comes out fifth in his projections, so far, behind only Jalen Suggs, Cunningham and the two G Leaguers. This doesn't include other international prospects such as Alperen Sengun quite yet, but the numbers clearly like how Giddey projects to the next level.
Pelton points out to us that Giddey's assist rate is his most impressive metric, as it ranks first in the NBL and is better than Ball's with Illawarra. Giddey's rebounding rate rivals that of Ball, as well. One question mark is Giddey's turnover rate and whether his triple-doubles are simply a product of the freedom he has in Adelaide, like we saw from French guard Killian Hayes in Ulm of the German Bundesliga.
Giddey's turnover rate is nearly double Ball's from a season ago and similar to Hayes' projection, according to Pelton. Although he has played with the basketball in his hands his entire life, skeptics will wonder whether Giddey can function as a primary ball handler at the next level or if he is better suited in the Ingles role. But the fact that Giddey has been so productive as an 18-year-old in a league that just produced names like Ball, Hampton and Tate bodes well for his NBA outlook.
The question marks
His size and feel for the game have clear value in the NBA, but for Giddey to maximize his long-term potential as a pick-and-roll playmaker, he'll have to continue evolving as a shooter. To start the season, teams ducked under pick-and-rolls and he'd turn down open looks or try to guide the ball nervously when left alone, until legendary coach Andrew Gaze told him to get out of his own head.
"I kind of flipped a switch and said I'm shooting every shot like it's going to go in, and from that day on, I've kind of never looked back," Giddey said.
He still has a bit of a slow release, and he could stand to add more ways to get to his pull-up jumper when a big is switched onto him, but the confidence is growing. With guards now fighting over the top of screens more often, Giddey has been able to pick weakside defenders apart with his passing or put pressure on the rim. He is adding nuance around the rim as a finisher and would benefit from refining Ingles' patented push shot, using more snakes to the middle of the floor, employing more hostage dribbles and getting to the free throw line at a greater clip.
Still, one of the biggest questions Giddey faces revolves around his ability to score efficiently in the half court as a primary ball handler. Although playing against grown men, including guards with NBA experience, Giddey's 13.8 points per 40 minutes ranks 93rd among the 2021 draft's top 100, ahead of only Usman Garuba, Carlos Alocen, Yves Pons, Scottie Lewis, Rokas Jokubaitis, Daishen Nix and Marcus Garrett. When Giannis Antetokounmpo or Bam Adebayo is switched onto him, can Giddey go get a bucket? Will he be able to get to his spots as a point guard against aggressive ball pressure?
Giddey is also averaging 4.1 turnovers per 40 minutes. Even opposing coaches say that's a point of weakness for him and a part of their game plan. But Giddey's size and basketball instincts, along with the way the modern NBA is refereed, works in his favor.
"The game's changed; you can't touch anyone," Bogut said. "These days, you can't even put an armbar on somebody; it's a foul. That plays into a lot of these highly skilled guys, especially the European guys that can't match the athleticism of American guys; they can keep up now because the game's refereed much differently."
Being able to create against rangy, NBA-caliber defenders was a question mark even a teenage phenom like Doncic faced despite his long list of accolades. As Ingles said of those critics looking back now, "How f---ing stupid do they feel?"
Giddey is clearly nowhere near as accomplished as Doncic. He also isn't 240-plus pounds with a step-back jumper to play off of. The question marks about Giddey being able to score efficiently in the half court against a set defense are all valid. But as scouts work to add more nuance to the term "athleticism," Giddey has ways to get a piece of the paint that defy conventional wisdom. His footwork rejecting ball screens is sharp. He uses sweeping left-to-right crossovers and timely behind-the-backs. He has perceptual quickness, catching his defender leaning one way before scampering in the other direction. Like Ingles, he is outstanding at covering ground with his dribble, pushing the ball out in front of him and squeezing through tight crevices.
"He can get his feet in the paint whenever he wants. He finds ways to do it," Clarke said. "That's the bigger piece, is what's going on between his ears. To look at situations, figure out and solve problems, that's a transferable skill."
Everyone from Doncic to Jayson Tatum and Nikola Jokic to Stephen Curry faced questions about their traditional "athleticism" coming into the NBA. As Bogut described, Jokic has "a body of a guy that you'd have some beers with at the local pub." Ingles also plays at a fairly slow pace, but because of his skill level, size, court vision and shooting, he is incredibly effective.
"The 'if you're not athletic you're not getting drafted or you're not going to make it in the NBA anymore' [line of thinking], I think that's completely gone," Ingles said. "If you can play and you're a smart player and you know how to get the job done, you can play in the NBA."
Will Giddey be able to get to his spot at the same level in the NBA that he does in the NBL? If surrounded by shooting, a skilled roller and another shifty guard next to him, there's surely going to be enough space for him to operate on offense.
How he performs on defense is another question entirely. Giddey will be the first to admit that at times he is too upright on the ball and tends to relax off of it. He'll ball watch and give up a corner 3 or allow a smaller guard to reject a screen.
On top of those shortcomings, there are questions about whether Giddey is strong enough to defend NBA wings, something NBA teams look for in 6-foot-8 playmakers since it allows them to play alongside smaller guards. There will surely be a learning curve, but as is the case in virtually every other aspect of his game, his instincts and anticipation -- the hardest traits to develop -- will help ease the transition.
"It's kind of just making up for lack of lateral quickness with just smarts and being able to read where he's going to be before he actually gets there," Giddey said after watching a clip of him beating Lamar Patterson to the spot before swiping the ball away for a steal.
Where Giddey goes in the draft also remains to be seen. Australia's mandatory two-week quarantine has deterred most NBA execs from venturing down under to get an in-person look at the big playmaker. But the film tells most of the story, and at the end of the day, 6-foot-8 perimeter players who can pass, dribble and at least shoot well enough to keep the defense honest have a place in the NBA. Whether it's as a wing playmaker like Ingles or Middleton or as a true point guard like Ball, Giddey looks the part of a future NBA starter who could potentially become more than that should he continue on his current rate of improvement.
"It probably wasn't until 12 month ago that I thought I could actually make a career out of basketball," Giddey told us. "I'm excited. It's been a dream of mine for as long as I've been playing basketball to be an NBA player, and it's becoming more of a reality for me, and it's becoming more of a realistic opportunity."
Validation for the NBA Academy
On top of becoming the next great Australian player to join the NBA ranks, Giddey hearing his name called in the first round also will be major validation for the NBA Academy program that started five seasons ago. Giddey will be the first NBA Academy graduate to be drafted. Five more NBA Academy alums are projected to be selected in 2022. The NBA has six academies across Australia, China, India, Mexico and Senegal, with Giddey graduating from the Global Academy in Australia before ultimately signing into the NBL for his draft-eligible season.
"When we started the Academy program, we knew this was probably a five- to 10-year runway before we really had potential for return on the investment that we were putting in," Ebersole said. "We're not even quite five years into it yet and to see Josh, as well as a number of others, to see that pipeline starting to be really robust and to see Josh be the first one to sort of break the surface, it's super exciting for our team."