<
        >

          2021 NBA draft: Alperen Sengun has scouts vowing they won't repeat their Nikola Jokic mistake

          • Mike SchmitzApr 27, 2021, 07:00 AM ET

          Nikola Jokic was selected 41st overall in 2014 largely because of question marks about his defensive upside, mobility and post-heavy style of play. Despite all 30 teams watching the 6-foot-11, 253-pound center fire no-look passes, spin past defenders and drop in scoop finishes against Karl Anthony Towns and Clint Capela for a week of Nike Hoop Summit practices, evaluators struggled to conceptualize how his game and body type would look in the NBA.

          Seven years later, Jokic is running through NBA competition on his way to an MVP award, and those questions are almost laughable in hindsight. As Jokic uses those same moves we saw back in 2014 against elite NBA centers such as Joel Embiid and Rudy Gobert, scouts and executives have become slower to dismiss the next wave of international big men with similar shortcomings.

          As one talent evaluator put it, "no one wants to miss on another Jokic."

          Enter Alperen Sengun.

          To call Sengun the next Jokic would be unfair to the ultra-productive, 18-year-old, Turkish big man and projected lottery pick. Jokic's feel for the game and creativity are rare. He was also given time to develop at his own pace with a draft-and-stash season in Serbia, and landed in an excellent situation with a Nuggets team that put the ball in his hands and allowed him to make plays. He's bigger, longer and had a more modern game than Sengun at the same stage. But the 6-foot-9 Sengun, who is in the midst of a record-breaking season for Beskitas in the Turkish League, is facing some of the same questions Jokic did about his frame, paint-dominant style of play and lack of foot speed. Yet Jokic's success, combined with Sengun's quick spins, post footwork and behind the back passes, figures to bode well for Sengun, since the NBA evaluation process is so often shaped by recent trends and player comparisons.

          "I watch Jokic, and I really want to play in the same style that he has," Sengun told ESPN through a translator after a practice in Istanbul. "Fadeaway, post moves. Generally, I study him. Some people say it's similar to Jokic's moves."

          Unprecedented production

          At this time one year ago, Sengun -- who was born in the small town of Giresun, Turkey, on the Black Sea -- wasn't viewed as a surefire NBA prospect. He weighed as much as 268 pounds at one point, heavy-footed defensively with a half-court game that lived mostly inside 15 feet. When I first evaluated him at the U16 European Championships in 2018, I wasn't sure what to make of him, as he lumbered up and down the court yet scored at will with a skill level well beyond his years.

          Once COVID-19 hit and put a pause on play, Sengun cut out sweets, started taking his training more seriously and trimmed down to 242 pounds. At somewhere between 6-foot-9 and 6-foot-10 with a wingspan nearing 7 feet, he is about the same size as Kevin Love was coming out of UCLA, though Sengun is a much more explosive leaper with his newfound frame.

          "I have a more athletic body right now," Sengun said after watching a clip of himself finishing an in-game 360 dunk he wouldn't have even fathomed trying years ago. "That's why I have to try [to dunk], and I try everything."

          The never-bashful Sengun has a handful of poster dunks this season, showing off an improved leaping ability to go along with his already-stellar footwork, aggressive nature and outstanding touch. He dominated the Turkish league in his first season with Beskitas, averaging 19.4 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.6 blocks while shooting 67% from 2-point range on a team that sits fifth in the standings.

          According to our historical database, no other 18-year-old has ever averaged at least 19 points, 9 rebounds and 2 assists over the course of a season in Europe. Dario Saric did so as a 19-year-old in 2014, but those figures came in the lesser Croatian League without the same level of efficiency. However, this shouldn't be confused with Luka Doncic's tearing up the Euroleague as a teenager. Even the biggest Sengun fans will concede Turkish League competition isn't what it used to be. With Beskitas clearly making an effort to showcase him, Sengun is allowed to play through mistakes more than a typical 18-year-old international prospect playing big minutes.

          Yet, as has been the case at virtually every stop of his young career, Sengun is producing at a high level with signature performances against respectable competition such as Fenerbahce and Jan Vesely (21 points and seven rebounds on nine shots) and Turk Telekom and Kyle Wiltjer and Sam Dekker (20 points and seven rebounds on nine shots). He also went for 24 points and 12 rebounds against Sweden during a senior national team game. Despite the level of the Turkish League being down, Sengun's production still stands out when compared to lauded international bigs before him.

          Paint dominance

          Sengun does most of his damage on the interior, whether out of post ups, rolls to the rim or by pounding the offensive glass, where he can carve out space thanks to his strong frame or crash from the perimeter for tip dunks with great timing.

          "I have an initial thing that I feel about rebounding," Sengun said. "Whenever they shoot the ball, I know where the ball will be. I follow the ball really well, and I feel it, it comes from inside."

          Sengun is corralling 5.8 offensive rebounds per 40 minutes, and his instincts on the glass rival that of Love at UCLA or Domantas Sabonis at Gonzaga. He ranks second among the top 100 in the class of 2021 in offensive rebound percentage, behind only North Carolina big man Day'Ron Sharpe. He'll tip rebounds to his teammate, or even secure one-handed boards like we've seen from Jokic.

          Beyond his work on the glass, Sengun is best operating 15 feet and in. He fights for deep post position and is already elite at spinning off of his defender as he feels him leaning in one direction or the other. He uses ball fakes, up-and-unders and scoop shots to deter rim protectors. Although not quick in a traditional sense, he's incredibly flexible for his body type, able to maneuver through tight spaces. While the natural comparison with those quick spins is Jokic, Sengun also has a lot of young Jahlil Okafor in his post-up attack. He plays off of face-up hesitations and spin moves like Okafor did in high school and at Duke, eventually palming the ball and finishing with contact. Sengun said he also studies old tapes of Shaquille O'Neal, along with Embiid, Sabonis and Jokic.

          Sengun is also a physical roller with some of the best hands I've ever seen from an 18-year-old. He catches everything thrown his way, isn't afraid to try to dunk on bigs at the rim and has the short roll touch shots necessary to neutralize NBA shot-blockers. With that said, at 6-foot-9, Sengun's paint dominance won't translate seamlessly to the NBA like it has for some 7-footers before him. The same moves that work against 33-year-old bigs such as Vladimir Stimac will likely be erased by Gobert, Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Sengun also shoots almost 10 free throws per 40 minutes thanks to a generous whistle he likely won't get in the NBA. At the very least, there should be optimism that Sengun could terrorize second units with his physicality and aggressiveness like we've seen from fellow 6-9 big man Isaiah Stewart this season. Creative teams could opt to experiment with him as a mini-Jokic off the bench, playing through him in the post once he becomes comfortable on an NBA floor.

          Modern qualities

          Sengun struggled in the game I scouted live in Istanbul -- his first contest back after battling COVID-19 -- posting a season-low nine points on 2-for-8 shooting. Even after watching all of his film and an individual workout, that performance didn't provide a full picture for how his game could translate to the NBA, so I flew back to Istanbul toward the end of my trip to see a two-hour practice and try to get a feel for whether or not he had more modern elements to his game than we saw on film.

          Watching him play 3-on-3, 4-on-4 and 5-on-5, Sengun handled the ball on the perimeter, splashed open 3s, threw no-look passes to open teammates and used ball fakes in the paint to create open shots. Sharing the floor for former collegiate standouts such as James Blackmon Jr (Indiana), Markell Johnson (NC State) and Joel Berry (UNC), Sengun was regularly the best player on the floor. Having also watched a full shooting workout on an off day, it became clear that Sengun, who is just 4-of-23 from 3 this season, will eventually make NBA 3s with relative ease, allowing him to play some as a power forward in two-big lineups, at least offensively. Sengun's 79% free throw clip is more indicative of the type of shooter he could become in time than his lack of 3s attempted this season. He doesn't lack confidence, either, as he splashed a step-back 3 in a senior national team game against Sweden.

          For as impressive as his skill level was, Sengun is still a bit wild as a decision-maker in practice settings. His teammates would make fun of him early in the year for trying his best Jokic impression only to turn what could be a basic pass into a no-look turnover. But the fact that Sengun isn't afraid to take risks bodes well for his upside as a passer, and his court vision is strong enough for him to potentially reach Sabonis' level as a facilitator in the right situation.

          Although most of Beskitas' talent lies on the perimeter, forcing Sengun into more of an interior role, he has the ability to eventually modernize his game as a floor-spacer, ball handler and passer, giving him considerable upside to grow into offensively. He doesn't get up and down the floor like most NBA bigs, and he clearly will be best-suited in more of a slow-it-down style, but the potential to shoot 3s and create for his teammates is all there for the skilled teenager.

          How will he defend?

          The biggest question Sengun faces is just how he'll defend at the NBA level. He's slow-footed on the perimeter and doesn't have the natural size to bang with the league's top-end NBA centers. He struggles to contain the ball in pick-and-roll. Players such as Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic, and Nikola Vucevic are all around 7 feet tall with big bodies and wingspans longer than 7-foot-2, allowing them to impact the ball at the rim due to their sheer size. Sengun's lack of interior size and speed guarding the perimeter might limit him to a backup role in the NBA, at least early in his career. With his physical traits the margin for error is thin, so becoming more sound with his technique, discipline and fundamentals is key.

          With that said, you can't ignore Sengun's remarkable instincts on the defensive end of the floor. Similar to Jokic, he has quick hands and does a tremendous job reading the eyes of the ball handler when defending pick-and-rolls, registering 1.9 steals per 40 minutes. His anticipation is elite, and he's a risk taker on the floor, for better or for worse. He also has really good timing for blocks, covering ground quite impressively.

          So, although how he fits defensively in the NBA remains a question, he has already shown instincts that are almost impossible to develop. While his physical shortcomings have him better suited for a bench role, as we've learned with players before him, we shouldn't dismiss those instincts when evaluating whether or not he can survive defensively in the NBA.

          Teams shouldn't draft Sengun expecting the next Jokic. But they should make an effort to learn from the mistakes that were made when evaluating Jokic: overvaluing physical traits and undervaluing the hands, touch, instincts, feel for the game and confidence to take risks. Sengun doesn't have Jokic's size, length or elite court vision, and there's much more of a track record for Serbian prospects than Turkish prospects. Coming from a small town in Turkey where learning English isn't always a priority, Sengun still speaks little to no English, which will surely elongate his transition to the NBA.

          But after watching him up close for several days and breaking down film with him, it became clear that his potential goes beyond that of a fringe NBA player. Years ago, the evaluation would have likely read: "Great for Europe." That was the thought heading into this season. as well, with Turkish power Fenerbahce heavy in pursuit. But his progression, along with the success of Jokic, is working in Sengun's favor. Of course, this can also lead to evaluation mistakes. Players such as Jokic and Luka Doncic are once-in-a-generation types of talents. We see this in other sports, too. Would Zach Wilson of BYU be the runaway No. 2 pick in this week's NFL draft if it weren't for Patrick Mahomes' success? Maybe not.

          But as teams head to Istanbul to start getting eyes on Sengun for the first time this season, it's time to start putting more stock in skill level and basketball instincts when determining upside, as that's clearly where the NBA is trending, with Jokic as the prime example.

          "I will do better in the NBA than here," said the ever-confident Sengun.

          Sengun's competition for top international prospect

          Due to limited in-person evaluations and his rapid ascension, Sengun has been one of the most difficult prospects for NBA teams to figure out thus far. Two potential lottery picks -- Josh Giddey (No. 13 on ESPN's Top 100) and Usman Garuba (No. 15) -- are essentially household names in scouting circles.

          While we weren't able to make it out to Australia to evaluate Giddey in his debut season with the Adelaide 66ers, we've seen him extensively at Basketball Without Borders events and NBA Academy showcases. I also conducted a virtual film session with Giddey on Monday, analyzing his stellar season in the Australian NBL. Giddey, who doesn't turn 19 until Oct. 10, just became the youngest Australian ever to have a triple double in the NBL, posting 12 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists against the New Zealand Breakers on Monday.

          "With my size, being able to be versatile, playing 1 through 3, guarding 1 through 3," Giddey said about what he can bring to the next level. "I'm unselfish and guys will like to play with me because I can get them the ball where they want it, when they want it. I love to pass the ball."

          Jonathan Givony recently broke down the year Giddey is having and how Giddey's game projects to the NBA level. He is averaging almost a triple-double per 40 minutes, can really pass the ball at 6-foot-8 and is improving as a shooter. With the potential to fill a Joe Ingles type of role, Giddey is easy to slot in as a lottery pick due to his skill level and production playing at a level of competition with which scouts are familiar, having watched LaMelo Ball and RJ Hampton last season.

          As for Garuba, we were able to get an updated look at the former teenage phenom we've been scouting closely since he was 15 years old. After evaluating Garuba live against Fenerbahce in Euroleague action and diving deep into his game tape, it quickly became clear that the Spanish-born Nigerian big man has a chance to become one of the best defenders in the NBA.

          Usman Garuba: Future All-NBA defender

          Real Madrid head coach Pablo Laso isn't afraid to give teenagers an opportunity, like he did Doncic. But he turns that opportunity into responsibility only if a player can impact winning, and Garuba has clearly earned his trust. Garuba has played in every game this season (36 EuroLeague, 32 ACB), with the majority of them coming when he was 18 years old. Garuba, who was just named the ACB Young Player of the Year, is one of only 13 under-20 players since 2000 to average at least 15 minutes per game in the Euroleague while appearing in at least 20 contests, joining names such as Doncic, Ricky Rubio and Theo Maledon.

          Watching Garuba live in Istanbul, he more than held his own banging on the interior with longtime NBA big Kyle O'Quinn, who is 6-foot-10, 240 pounds with a 7-foot-5 wingspan, comparable size to many NBA centers. Standing 6-foot-8, 230 pounds, with a reported 7-foot-3 wingspan, Garuba will surely struggle with Embiid-type bigs but should be able to check some modern NBA centers in a pinch.

          Laso regularly unleashes him against point guards, as well, which is what makes him most interesting on the defensive end. In the Fenerbahce game I watched live, he stopped former NBA G League MVP Lorenzo Brown, containing the guard's dribble penetration before blocking his shot in the paint. He strung together a few outstanding possessions against 6-5 Vasa Micic, former Philadelphia 76ers draft pick and one of the best guards in the EuroLeague, in the first round of the playoffs against Efes. He has some of the quickest feet you'll see from a player his size. With incredibly active hands and a never-ending motor, he also understands the nuances of how to defend the pick-and-roll.

          With measurements somewhat similar to OG Anunoby at the same age, Garuba is the type of strong-framed defender who can compete with elite wings such as LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard and Doncic, as well. He can hold his own in the midpost and is disruptive enough on the perimeter to have an impact. Garuba played maybe the best game of his career against Nikola Mirotic and Barcelona earlier this month, logging a team-high 32 minutes while scoring 11 points and grabbing five rebounds while defending virtually all five positions in a two-point win. While he tends to over-help, gets lost off the ball at times and can be a little bit too jumpy defensively, Garuba's energy, versatility, foot speed and tools figure to make him a defensive stopper and one of the league's most versatile defenders. While not as tall or rangy, think Jonathan Isaac level defensive versatility. Sometimes you see a big man version of Marcus Smart with his defensive toughness and physicality.

          The defensive fit is clear, but Garuba has always been much more of a question mark offensively. At the FIBA youth level, Garuba showed the ability to push the ball in transition and create for himself and others in a straight line off the bounce, even earning some Draymond Green comparisons in the process. With Real Madrid, however, the ballhandling and playmaking hasn't stuck, and Garuba has proven much more effective as a roller, offensive rebounder and occasional spot shooter.

          Because of his limitations, Garuba has played his best minutes as a small-ball center, slipping out of screens aggressively, playing out of the dunker spot and keeping plays alive on the offensive glass. Despite shaky hands, he's an excellent offensive rebounder who pursues the ball relentlessly. He can also make passes out of short rolls, either hitting the corner shooters or bigs in the dunker spot. Garuba is at his best when paired with a stretch 5, so he can worry less about spacing the floor, handling the ball and making reads and focus more on diving hard to the rim and rebounding.

          With that said, he has shown some progress with his spot-up 3, knocking down 31% of his 96 attempts this season. He doesn't have great natural touch, his follow through is all over the place and he shoots just 57% from the free throw line, but Garuba's progress is notable. He's playing some of the best basketball of his career over the past five games, averaging 9.2 points, 6.2 rebounds and 1.0 steals in 29 minutes while shooting 70% from 2 and 36% from 3.

          Maybe the best part about Garuba is that he knows exactly who he is as a player. Talking to him over the years, he's well aware that energy is his ticket in the NBA. He's fine with being the fifth option offensively. Skeptics often said he would never be anything more than an ACB rotation player. They called him an early bloomer or a dead-end prospect. Even some international scouts still question whether or not he's worthy of a first-round pick. He might not have the offensive skill level of a Sengun or a Giddey, but with an unrelenting motor and a clear understanding of his strengths and weaknesses, Garuba is bound to be a fan and coaching staff favorite with the ability to impact the game from the moment he puts on an NBA jersey.

          Who will be the first international player drafted?

          As it stands now, I'd give the slight nod to Giddey because it's tougher to find 6-foot-8 playmakers who can dissect ball screens like he can. He's a more straightforward fit than both Sengun and Garuba. It's also easier for teams to put into context what he's doing in an Australian League that yielded two first-round picks last season.

          Garuba and Sengun couldn't be more opposite, so where they land in the draft will come down to team needs. Regardless of who goes first, when you stack both of them up against a strong college class, it's fair to say that both are worthy of looks in the lottery. You could argue that Sengun is the most skilled big in the draft after Evan Mobley. You could make a strong case that Garuba is the most versatile defender in the entire draft.

          So, while not every international scout will agree, there are three international prospects worthy of lottery attention, each poised to bring something completely different to the NBA game.