STILLWATER, Okla. -- Cade Cunningham isn't your typical No. 1 draft pick.
He doesn't defy physics like Zion Williamson did at Duke. He's not a human highlight reel like Ben Simmons was at LSU. He's not loaded with traditional upside like Anthony Davis at Kentucky. He's not a speed demon like John Wall at UK or an elite ball handler like Kyrie Irving at Duke.
Like Luka Doncic before him, Cunningham faces lingering questions about his star potential at the next level. Is he a playmaking wing or a lead guard? Does he project as a really good player on a winning team or a perennial All-Star who can turn a franchise?
Why is it that -- in what's considered a loaded draft with a physical talent like Jonathan Kuminga, a unicorn like Evan Mobley, a high-flier like Jalen Green and an energizer like Jalen Suggs in the top five -- Cunningham is the top prospect?
I spent a few days tracking Cunningham in person and breaking down film with him. Here's what I learned that helps answer those questions:
Can Cunningham lead a clutch NBA offense?
There was 1:25 on the clock during an end-of-practice scrimmage, with the starters down 5. Oklahoma State junior guard Isaac "Ice" Likekele looked at 19-year-old Cunningham from the sideline.
"Last two minutes, you know it's that time!" Likekele yelled.
His teammates and coaches are well aware that Cunningham is the Cowboys' closer with his late-game heroics, often coasting through the first half and then flipping the switch during crunch time. He is averaging 12.2 points in the second half and overtime while shooting 11-of-23 (.478) in the final two minutes of regulation this season, per ESPN Stats & Info. He's already knocked down two go-ahead jumpers in the final 30 seconds that led to wins and has made a host of other huge plays down the stretch of games on a Cowboys team that has no business being 12-6 based on its mediocre talent.
Cade Cunningham's block on the defensive end leads to Avery Anderson III's lay-in on offense.
"Any time it's the end of the game I try to slow down, be one with the game and just kind of be in the moment, and I think it's only helped me," Cunningham said. "Any time that there's a lot of pressure or whatever you want to call it, it kind of feels like more of an opportunity now."
Cunningham is quickly proving to NBA scouts and executives that he has a subtle star power. He doesn't play above the rim and isn't blessed with blazing speed, but as one NBA executive put it: "Cade's got that gene." It's similar to another jumbo playmaker who is helping Cunningham's cause to not only go No. 1 but also develop into a star at the next level.
"I feel like I want to be the hero of the game, you know?" Luka Doncic told me at 2017 FIBA EuroBasket. "Every time I wanted the ball in my hands, from the very beginning."
Cunningham is no carbon copy of Doncic. There has never been a young player as accomplished as the Slovenian prodigy. Doncic is bigger in stature and plays with a different level of aggression and emotion. When Doncic was Cunningham's age, he was in the midst of a Rookie of the Year campaign in which he averaged 21.1 points, 7.8 rebounds and 6.0 assists. Making late-game shots against Big 12 foes isn't the same as walk-off EuroLeague game winners in Serbia.
But there are pre-draft parallels between the two. There were worries about Doncic's quickness and ability to generate efficient offense against NBA-caliber athletes despite his long list of accolades. It worked in the EuroLeague, but would it work in the NBA? We'll get into Cunningham's creation as it relates to Doncic, but one thing that Luka naysayers didn't fully account for was his history of clutch moments. In a skill-based NBA, having the confidence to take and make step-back late-clock 3s is imperative for elite closers. Watching Cunningham live against TCU, Texas and in practice settings, it's clear he has that. He's calm on the court, rarely changing face in even the most tense moments, which should bode well for his NBA future.
"I think he's unflappable in those situations," said his high school coach, Kevin Boyle, who also coached Simmons, RJ Barrett, Joel Embiid, Irving and a host of other stars at Montverde Academy. "I think you're going to get his best in the clutch. I don't think he's going to get rattled."
Cade Cunningham drops 18 points, including a powerful steal and slam, in Oklahoma State's 84-71 victory over Oakland on Saturday.
Can Cunningham create vs. NBA athletes?
Like Doncic, Cunningham has similarly been described as slow and methodical with the ball, not always possessing the breakdown speed to kick it into high gear against elite defenders. He struggled around the rim against long athletes such as Kai Jones and Greg Brown of Texas, and Cunningham is shooting just 40% from 2 against teams with a winning percentage over .500. His 2-point percentage ranks in the bottom five of our top 100 -- a rarity for a projected top pick.
The lack of space he has to operate reminds me of Jaylen Brown's freshman season at Cal, in which he shot just 48% inside the arc while playing on a team of non-shooters with two traditional bigs eating up space. Even with that in mind, his naysayers would still question whether Cunningham can go get a late-clock bucket against an elite NBA defender -- but he isn't concerned.
"I've played against plenty of NBA guys," Cunningham said. "You could ask those guys, I guess. I'm comfortable with whoever I'm playing against. I'm going to be fine."
Even on a smaller college floor with a middling supporting cast, Cunningham is the most efficient isolation player in the NCAA, generating 1.26 points per possession. And he has done that with every scouting report geared to stop him, largely thanks to his pull-up shooting, size and understanding of how to get a defender's momentum shifting in different directions. He is already a polished, off-the-dribble 3-point shooter for his age, and the fact that Cunningham is watching a ton of Doncic film also helps.
"Speed, athleticism is definitely a great quality to have, but Luka just knows how to play the game," Cunningham said. "He knows how to get you leaning one way, give you a move and get to his spots. Somebody that's tougher to guard than someone that's super athletic."
Teams who nitpicked Doncic vastly underestimated his size and the difference in spacing between the EuroLeague and the NBA. In Year 3, Doncic gets virtually everywhere he wants on the floor thanks to his sturdy frame, deception, feel and skill level. Cunningham projects similarly in that regard. While he is likely not quite the 6-foot-8 that he is listed, Cunningham looks every bit of 6-foot-7, and he is wide-shouldered at 220 pounds with huge hands and a wingspan around 7-foot-2. Cunningham's measurements aren't too far off from those of Kawhi Leonard at the same stage.
When you factor in his size and the space on the NBA floor, Cunningham should have little problem getting to his spots. The question, "Is he athletic enough?" has become too simplistic and outdated in today's game. As we saw with Deandre Ayton and Marvin Bagley III over Doncic in 2018, and as we'll likely see with Anthony Edwards and James Wiseman over LaMelo Ball or even Tyrese Haliburton in 2020, teams are starting to get burned by drafting length and explosiveness over size, skill and mentality. With those cautionary tales in mind, we'll see if NBA teams adjust accordingly with Cunningham.
What's his NBA position?
Some NBA evaluators and analysts wonder if Cunningham will be better off as a playmaking wing like Khris Middleton as opposed to a jumbo point guard like Doncic, largely because of his so-so quickness with the ball.
"I love to have the ball in my hands making plays," Cunningham said when asked where he fits positionally. "At the next level, that's what I aspire to do. When I come in Day 1, that's what I'm going to try and prove that I can do."
One glimpse at Cunningham's assist (54) to turnover (63) rate would lead most to believe he is better as an off-ball contributor and secondary playmaker. He admits he is too loose with the ball and needs to better value possessions, which was evident during his seven-turnover performance against Kansas. "This isn't EYBL anymore," Cunningham's brother, Cannen, an assistant coach on the Oklahoma State staff told me after that game.
But context is incredibly important when projecting Cunningham positionally at the next level. Cunningham played mostly the 4 and the 5 growing up. It wasn't until the summer going into his junior season that he transitioned on the ball full time. Watch him work out pregame or at practice and he is going through post drills with the bigs. From his ambidextrous jump hook game to occasional at-rim verticality, he still has some big man habits.
But Oklahoma State head coach Mike Boynton said he noticed point guard instincts and maturity from Cunningham the first time he evaluated him as a 14-year-old, thinking he was an unsigned high school senior.
"This kid's making all the right plays at 14 years old," Boynton remembers. "He knows how to cut, he knows how to block out, he knows how to pass with both hands. The things that I saw thinking he was a senior, I would never attribute to a freshman."
Cannen had Cade play in the under-16s on the Nike EYBL circuit as opposed to the more highly touted U17s so that he could play through mistakes at the point guard spot. Eventually, Cade Cunningham was the lead guard on one of the most touted high school teams ever in 25-0 Montverde Academy (Florida), tasked with spreading the ball around between projected first-round picks Scottie Barnes (Florida State), Moses Moody (Arkansas), Day'Ron Sharpe (UNC) and Caleb Houstan (2022 draft).
Before his senior season at Montverde, Cunningham won MVP of the Nike EYBL, averaging 23.8 points, 7.0 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 3.0 turnovers while shooting 64% from 2 and 35% from 3 based on the 18 games in our DraftExpress database. He carried that momentum into the U19 World Championships, where he posted per-40-minute averages of 20.0 points, 8.3 rebounds, 9.7 assists, 2.4 steals, 1.5 blocks and 3.4 turnovers as the clear top prospect on a stacked team that featured everyone from Tyrese Haliburton to Evan Mobley to Jalen Green.
Based on what we've seen in other settings, there's a real case to be made that Cunningham's best skill is his passing. Yet, the fact that Oklahoma State ranks 165th in the nation in 3-point percentage has made driving lanes narrow and diminished Cunningham's assist opportunities. Teams also have started blitzing every Cunningham pick-and-roll, forcing the ball out of his hands and daring the supporting cast to beat them.
"He chose the path that was going to challenge him to get better," Boynton said. "You've gotta have some feel for this, man. You've gotta be able to watch this game and see his impact."
It's important to consider what Cunningham would look like if he were surrounded by more complete players, as fellow top-5 prospect Suggs is at Gonzaga. Far too often, Cunningham's heady, crosscourt skip passes, off-hand kickouts or perfectly timed bounce passes to the roll man don't show up in the assist column. Like Doncic, Cunningham is already excellent at hitting that weakside corner out of pick-and-roll, which puts a ton of stress on the defense. He also reads the game well, sounding like a longtime NBA vet talking through ball-screen reads.
The son of a former Texas Tech football standout, Cunningham credits his roots as a quarterback for his court sense, comparing himself to a young Patrick Mahomes on the gridiron. Surrounded by NBA shooters and a lob threat, Cunningham should be flirting with double-digit assists at the next level.
And even if all else fails and he does find himself better off on the wing, Cunningham's size, spot shooting and court awareness makes him valuable there. He truly can shift anywhere from 1 to 4 offensively, like he does at OSU, which should make him attractive to teams at the top of the draft regardless of their roster.
As Boynton put it, "No matter who is on your roster, Cade fits."
Can he fix his real weaknesses?
For Cunningham to maximize his long-term potential and even be mentioned in the same breath as Doncic at the next level, he still has clear areas to improve. He is too relaxed on the defensive end of the floor, not always utilizing his instincts, length and size consistently. Becoming more disruptive with his ball pressure and more engaged off the ball would elevate his impact. Cunningham described himself as a "roller coaster" defensively, noting that he has had some A-level performances along with some F's.
"That's another one where, 24/7, being all the way locked in," Cunningham said as we watched a clip of him getting beaten him off the dribble. "I should have, even though I'm in foul trouble, there's no way I don't sit down in a stance. I just kind of stayed high."
Some of this is due to his offensive role and early foul trouble, but becoming an every-possession defender is high on Cunningham's improvement list, especially since he has shown encouraging glimpses of disrupting plays (1.4 steals and 1.0 blocks per game).
"He has these ebbs and flows of intensity," his brother said.
Although Cunningham's calculated approach is a plus, he also can play with more consistent aggression, walking less on the floor and inserting himself into games when necessary. There will be times when those late-game heroics won't come because he waited too long to try to deliver the knockout punch.
"I definitely need to string two halves together more, for sure," Cunningham said.
He can add more nuance as a finisher, not overdribble as often in isolation situations and sharpen the consistency of his catch-and-shoot jumper. He also needs to get tighter with his handle, committing too many live-ball turnovers. But these are normal criticisms of 19-year-old standouts. In reality, Cunningham is as close to a complete prospect as you'll find -- someone who should fit the modern game perfectly.
Use the top 10 players according to ESPN's preseason #NBARank as a barometer. Outside of physical outliers LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo, the rest are players with supreme skill and unshakable confidence -- Luca Doncic, Kawhi Leonard, Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard, James Harden and Nikola Jokic. The best perimeter players in the NBA can shoot off-the-dribble 3s, make every pick-and-roll read and don't shrink when the lights are brightest. Cunningham fits that mold perfectly. If his median outcome is somewhere between that of Luka Doncic and Khris Middleton, that's certainly worthy of the top pick.
After a 2020 draft in which there were so many questions about the résumé and paths of potential top picks like Anthony Edwards, James Wiseman and LaMelo Ball, Cunningham is a breath of fresh air for NBA executives. He isn't overly expressive on the floor, but he is rock-solid across the board, with a history of winning and a clear maturity about him. Already a father, he is regimented in his approach to the game, with a focus on mindfulness, breath work and meditation.
And there's a quiet and highly competitive instinct within him. When TCU fans started chanting "overrated" every time Cunningham touched the ball after a mediocre first half, he erupted. Step-back 3s, drives to the rim, runners in the lane -- all ending with some type of stare and trash talk back to the student section and the Horned Frogs bench.
If you take a deeper look at his situation in Stillwater, understand his intangible factors and analyze what's working in today's NBA, Cunningham belongs at the top of this draft. And from all we've gathered, he is more than equipped to handle all that comes along with that.
"It's going to be hard to find somebody else that's versatile and can affect the game in this many ways," Cunningham said. "Yeah, I feel like I'm the best player, but that's how I should feel. I know there are a lot of other big-time players, but I think I'm the one."