NBA draft 2021: Does Iowa Hawkeyes star Luka Garza have a place in the NBA?

Iowa star center Luka Garza is the odds-on favorite to win the John R. Wooden Award as college basketball's best player this season. It's what happens to Garza after his career at Iowa (vs. Ohio State, 7 p.m. Thursday, ESPN) ends that remains an open question. NBA scouts are divided on Garza's ability to make an impact at the next level, and most evaluators have him outside the first round.

With that in mind, ESPN draft experts Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz took a closer look at Garza's game, examining the skills that could translate and the areas in which Garza needs to improve, and comparing him to current NBA players to help contextualize the player he could become as a pro.

What skills does Luka Garza have that translate to the next level?

To call Garza the most dominant offensive player in the college game would be understating how productive he has been. We haven't seen a college basketball player as prolific (34.8 points per 40 minutes) or efficient (67% true shooting percentage) at scoring since Shaquille O'Neal (35.1 points per 40, 65%) at LSU in 1991. The only player to come close in the past 30 years? Davidson's Steph Curry, who scored 34 points per 40 with a 61% true shooting percentage.

Garza's scoring ability is the main reason Iowa has the No. 1-ranked offense in college basketball, per BPI, ahead of undefeated national championship contenders Gonzaga and Baylor.

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Dosunmu Eurosteps past Garza for Illinois bucket

Illinois' Ayo Dosunmu gets the ball in transition and breaks out a Eurostep to get by Luka Garza for the score.

It starts with Garza's ability to carve out deep post position early in the shot clock with his wide frame and outstanding work ethic. Despite his lumbering running style, he sprints the court incisively off misses, putting huge pressure on the defense to account for him, opening up the floor for the plethora of shooters surrounding him to step into open jumpers with their feet set. He has the same effect operating out of pick-and-roll -- he sucks in the defense after setting bruising screens and gets his teammates wide-open shots with his gravity rolling to the basket without even touching the ball.

Thanks to his exceptionally reliable hands, Garza catches nearly everything thrown his way, and he is difficult to double-team, as he has good awareness as a passer, turning the ball over on just 9% of his post possessions, per Synergy Sports Technology data.

He's brutally effective with his back to the basket in one-on-one situations operating on either block, as Garza has phenomenal footwork, impressive dexterity on spin moves and a very high skill level throwing in hook shots with soft touch high off the glass with either hand. He can also face up out of isolation and either throw in short-range jumpers or bulldoze through defenders in a straight line. Garza is a magnet for fouls due to his strong frame and ultra-aggressive style of play, drawing over nine fouls per 40 minutes (fourth best among ESPN Top 100 prospects) and converting 73% of his free throw attempts.

Since he draws so much attention from defenses, Garza's best source of production often comes by crashing the offensive glass. He's a little quicker off his feet than he gets credit for, and shows excellent timing pursuing loose balls.

Finally, Garza is a much-improved 3-point shooter, going from hitting 29% of his attempts as a sophomore to 46% this season, on more than three attempts per game. He can space the floor from the corners or the top of the key or pick and pop with a quick, smooth release. Increasingly, he has shown the ability to make pull-up jumpers in midrange spots out of isolation or when attacking closeouts, even mixing in Nowitzki-esqe one-legged fadeaways for good measure.

If given the minutes and touches, I'm confident that Garza's scoring ability will translate to the NBA in some capacity. The only question I have is whether a team will look to utilize him enough to make up for his glaring limitations on the other end. -- Jonathan Givony

Which parts of Garza's game worry NBA evaluators?

Garza's defense -- particularly on the perimeter -- is the main thing holding him back from being considered a first-round pick and surefire NBA player. While Garza is one of the most efficient college basketball players the NCAA has ever seen, as Jonathan outlined, his issues defending pick-and-roll are a big reason the Hawkeyes rank 95th in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, on a team that often toggles between man and zone. He has done a great job of adding something new to his offensive repertoire every year, but Garza's feet aren't going to get much quicker, which isn't ideal in an NBA in which defending pick-and-roll is king.

With that said, not every NBA center is as nimble as Bam Adebayo or Anthony Davis when guarding ball screens, and most NBA teams still play drop coverage defensively in hopes of forcing contested midrange jumpers. So, for Garza, his best chance of not getting routinely exposed guarding pick-and-roll would be learning how to play the cat-and-mouse, bluff-and-recover game like we've seen from ground-bound NBA centers such as Nikola Jokic, Jusuf Nurkic or former Defensive Player of the Year Marc Gasol. Both Jokic and Nurkic average 1.5 steals per 40 minutes for their careers, using their quick hands, anticipation and veteran mind games to add value as backline defenders despite lacking vertical explosiveness.

A center like Brook Lopez wasn't always considered the pick-and-roll defender he is today, as he's now a key cog on a stellar Milwaukee defense predicated on playing drop coverage while living with above-the-break 3s. Slow-twitch bigs can develop into sound pick-and-roll defenders, but unfortunately for Garza, he doesn't have the length (7-1 wingspan) of bigs such as Lopez (7-6), Nikola Vucevic (7-5) or Ivica Zubac (7-4). That length really helps slower-footed bigs sit back in those deep drops and still impact the ball while not giving up lobs.

Garza would also benefit from becoming a more consistent rim protector when you consider how he projects as a pick-and-roll defender. He has solid timing in verticality situations and is blocking 1.7 shots in 30.3 minutes, but Garza struggles to cover ground swiftly and doesn't have any pop as a leaper, which clearly limits his upside as a shot-blocker. Becoming a sturdier one-on-one post defender and a dominant defensive rebounder like a Jonas Valanciunas-type would also deter him from getting played off the floor. Garza ranks 20th in defensive rebounding percentage among our top 100 prospects, behind perimeter players such as Joel Ayayi (Gonzaga) and Jason Preston (Ohio).

Defense is the clear drawback to Garza, but NBA scouts are also debating just how much some of his interior scoring will translate to the highest levels. While also blessed with soft touch, Garza does a lot of his damage by sheer force via deep duck-ins and offensive rebounds, as Jonathan outlined. Almost 50% of his offense comes out of post-ups, and partially due to Garza's lumbering running style, Iowa ranks 103rd in the nation in pace. With so many talented perimeter players and athletes in the league, will an NBA coach be willing to slow it down and play through Garza when he's on the floor? Or will he be able to change ends through sheer effort like we've seen from bigs such as Isaiah Stewart?

To his credit, Garza has modernized his game with his shooting stroke, which will likely translate well to the NBA. Now it's about continuing to get more comfortable playing out of handoffs and short rolls, as most bigs who aren't run-and-jump centers really shine as ball handlers and facilitators in these situations -- like Gasol. Garza shows promise as a distributor when double-teamed and has the touch and feel to be a threat in 4-on-3 situations after rolling to the rim with more reps.

All in all, if you're going to be a liability on the defensive end of the floor at the center spot, you have to be so special offensively to warrant playing minutes. With Garza's quickness and agility likely difficult to improve, becoming an elite floor spacer, switch-punisher, short-roll facilitator and dominant rebounder is likely his most realistic road to doing that. -- Mike Schmitz

How does Garza's production stack up historically?

Comparing Garza's production in college to current NBA players isn't easy, as most players who dominated the college game didn't stay four years like he did. DeMarcus Cousins, John Collins, Blake Griffin, Andrew Bogut, Kevin Love and Vernon Carey Jr. posted comparable (but still inferior) numbers to Garza as freshmen or sophomores, which isn't an apples-to-apples comparison. Garza's first two seasons in college were impressive but nowhere near the level of what we saw as a junior (when he was runner-up for the Wooden Award as National Player of the Year) and now as the undisputed best player in the college game.

With all those caveats in mind, we can safely point out that Garza is having arguably the most productive season for a college big man since O'Neal in 1991, as discussed above. Will the Shaq-like numbers hold up over the course of the season? I think it might be close. Garza's stats were padded to an extent by the somewhat soft nonconference schedule Iowa played -- five of his best games were against the likes of Southern, North Carolina Central, Northern Illinois, Iowa State and Western Illinois.

His productivity has dropped off to more "human" levels since Iowa finished its nonconference slate with a double-digit loss to Gonzaga, and then into the Big Ten slate. He's shooting "just" 57% for 2 and 33% for 3 in those 11 games plus the North Carolina game. With another dozen contests left to play (and possibly several more depending on how deep the Hawkeyes go in the NCAA tournament), Garza's production will inevitably regress somewhat but should still end up being very impressive.

The following chart looks at the 10 upperclassmen centers with the highest player efficiency ratings in college basketball in the past 20 years. Interestingly, both Virginia's Jay Huff and Western Kentucky's Charles Bassey (also projected 2021 draft picks) would also be on this list (ranked second and eighth, respectively) if the season ended today.

-- Jonathan Givony

What is the ceiling for Garza at the next level? What is his floor?

Almost all of the NBA's best teams possess either a legitimate defensive anchor at the 5 or a versatile, switch-heavy big at that spot. For the Jazz, it's Rudy Gobert. For the Clippers, it's Serge Ibaka. For the Lakers, it's Anthony Davis. For the Sixers, it's Joel Embiid. For the Pacers, it's Myles Turner. The list goes on. With that in mind, Garza clearly doesn't project as an NBA starter given his limitations on that end.

A best-case scenario would be for Garza to develop into an Enes Kanter-type of center, which would be a major win for the Iowa Hawkeye given his current ranking in our top 100. Although it's easy to debate his actual value on an NBA floor, Kanter has started 245 games over the course of his nine-year NBA career. Kanter, of course, was a top-three pick and a decorated youth player who entered the NBA at age 19. He's also the best offensive rebounder in the NBA and more agile than Garza. Yet the two do have similar measurements at around 6-foot-11, 260 pounds with 7-1 wingspans, and in terms of a center who struggles to protect the rim and defend in space yet can man the offensive glass and score with touch in the paint, there are parallels. Garza is a superior perimeter shooter and should ultimately evolve into a stretch-5, while Kanter is a more effective defensive rebounder.

You'll hear some sentiments that Garza is the Jokic of the NCAA, but the Nuggets star is one of the best ball-handling and passing bigs the game has ever seen. Nurkic is another natural comp you hear because of Garza's similar Bosnian roots and lack of explosiveness. While they do share similar height and wingspan measurements, the 280-pound Nurkic ranks in the top 10 in at-rim defense, an area in which Garza is still improving. Jahlil Okafor is another name that comes to mind when considering a dominant interior player in the NCAA ranks who struggles to defend. Garza has the shooting advantage, but Okafor's huge hands, 7-6 wingspan, positional handle, wiggle for his size and touch have helped him maintain a role as a scoring big off the bench.

Naz Reid is another name to consider when thinking about Garza in terms of a scoring big who can shoot it from 3 and score inside yet isn't all that consistent defensively. With that said, Reid is an excellent ball handler for his size and much more nimble, which allows him to thrive in a more up-and-down game. Then there's an ultra-productive big in Thomas Bryant, who has overcome defensive difficulties to shine as a starter for the Wizards. Yet Bryant -- although poor laterally -- can really run the floor, get up to catch a lob, and has a 7-6 wingspan at his disposal. A lot of the stretch bigs Jonathan outlined above -- Olynyk, Muscala included -- are much more mobile.

So with a 3-point-shooting, less-mobile Kanter as the pipe dream, Garza's floor is a EuroLeague starter who carves out a long, successful career overseas. With no defensive three-second violations in Europe, it's easier to park it in the paint at the 5 in the EuroLeague than in a more up-and-down NBA. Some ultra-productive, ground-bound bigs who dominated the college game yet didn't stick in the NBA include Alan Williams, Mike Daum, Jock Landale, Nick Fazekas, John Bryant and Omar Samhan, each one achieving varying levels of success abroad. None was as productive in college as Garza, though, and I'd expect him to land somewhere in between a 3-point-shooting, less- mobile Kanter and one of the aforementioned collegiate stars who got stuck on the NBA fringe.

That would leave him most likely as a roster big who can beat up on second-unit centers, impacting the game with his offensive physicality and shooting. The fact that Vernon Carey Jr. went 32nd overall despite putting forth one of the most productive per-40-minute seasons the ACC has ever seen from a freshman is proof that NBA teams aren't exactly clamoring for more traditional bigs who can't guard in space or protect the rim. But Garza is wired differently than Carey with his passion, energy and yearning for physicality, even if he has his physical limitations. Garza's productivity and consistent improvement shouldn't be ignored, and I wouldn't bet against him making a roster, even if that means as a third center. -- Mike Schmitz

Jonathan Givony is an NBA draft expert and the founder and co-owner of DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service utilized by NBA, NCAA and international teams.

Mike Schmitz is an NBA draft expert and a contributor to DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service utilized by NBA, NCAA and international teams.