ORLANDO, Florida -- The 2021 NBA G League schedule tipped off in Orlando on Feb. 10, with 17 G League teams joining the G League Ignite program -- launched to offer players who are not yet eligible for the NBA draft a domestic path to the league -- for a 135-game regular season followed by a single-elimination playoff tournament that will begin March 8. In addition to taking a closer look at the four Ignite players that are part of the G League's Pathway program and are eligible for the 2021 NBA draft, ESPN also evaluated the play of some notable former first-rounders featured in Orlando, as well as a lesser-known group making a bid for NBA call-ups down the stretch.
Here's the latest on the 2019 and 2020 first-rounders whose NBA futures are in some peril based on their play in Orlando, as well as those making a case to become the next Duncan Robinson -- players with G League pedigree who could develop into impact players as the 2021 NBA season comes down the stretch.
Why the Ignite team is putting former first-rounders on notice
The introduction of the G League Ignite program not only offers NBA executives a new pathway to evaluate draft prospects, it also serves as an excellent comparison tool for players already on existing NBA rosters. If players operating under NBA or two-way contracts can't outplay the next group of prospects entering the league, it places jobs in real jeopardy -- especially in seasons like this where every roster spot is needed to stay competitive on a nightly basis.
Based on data dating back to the 2003 draft compiled by ESPN's Bobby Marks, 30% of first-round picks don't make it to the end of their rookie scale contract, with either the final year or two of their contracts being declined. Looking at the 2016 NBA draft, 14 of 30 first-round picks failed to see one or both options of the final two years of their rookie scale contracts executed, the second-highest mark since 2003.
The business of basketball is as cutthroat as ever, as indicated by the sheer quantity of former McDonald's All Americans and all-conference college players on every G League roster. Young players can no longer afford to view a G League assignment as a demotion -- it's a fight for NBA survival. Even former top-10 picks like Josh Jackson, Dragan Bender, Jahlil Okafor, Mario Hezonja and Marquese Chriss saw their rookie scale options declined despite coming into the NBA as teenagers. This should serve as a wake-up call for players currently debating entering the 2021 NBA draft.
In the 2020 NBA draft class, players who might have cause for concern (with all stats through Thursday's games) include:
Jalen Smith (No. 10 pick, Phoenix Suns) -- This was a surprising pick on draft night (especially with Tyrese Haliburton on the board) and Smith's play in the NBA preseason, the regular season and now on assignment in the G League isn't encouraging thus far. He's posting a 48% true shooting percentage through six games and struggling badly defensively, having a very difficult time standing out from regular G Leaguers, despite being one of the best big men in college basketball at Maryland last season. Finding a position to defend, as well as some consistency with his jumper (he's 8-of-37 for 3 on the season thus far) will be important first steps.
Aleksej Pokusevski (No. 17 pick, traded to Oklahoma City Thunder) -- Having recently turned 19, younger than all but five college players currently projected to be drafted in 2021, it's surely far too early to ring the alarm bells on Pokusevski's play -- especially considering the long-term nature of Oklahoma City's front-office thinking. Still, shooting 31% from 2 and 27% from 3-point range, having made just two free throws in 26 NBA and G League games, and being virtually unplayable defensively at times due to his thin frame shows just how far away from Pokusevski is from being a productive NBA player at this point.
Tyrell Terry (No. 31 pick, Dallas Mavericks) -- An internet darling who parlayed some impressive shot-making into a surprise one-and-done season at Stanford, Terry has predictably looked far from ready to run a NBA team or defend his position consistently. While Terry's shot-making ability has translated to the G League, his struggles navigating screens defensively, poor decision-making in pick-and-roll and inability to handle contact in the lane has made it difficult for Terry to not be a negative at the G League level. At just 20 years old, Terry was always going to need time to find his footing as a pro, but may have difficulties finding a role in the short-term for a Mavericks team that has high expectations.
Cassius Stanley (No. 54 pick, Indiana Pacers) -- Posting an abysmal 42% true shooting percentage with more turnovers than assists, Stanley currently rates as one of the worst players in the G League by a wide margin. A two-time reclassifier in high school who was drafted as a 21-year-old despite playing just one season at Duke, Stanley doesn't have youth on his side, meaning Indiana will surely want to see more from him even if they've invested minimally in him with a non-guaranteed two-way contract.
From the 2019 NBA draft class, here are the players who may be feeling some pressure (all stats through Thursday's games):
Ty Jerome (No. 24 pick, traded to Oklahoma City Thunder) -- Coming off an injury, Jerome has looked slow and heavy-footed, having a difficult time finding any advantage offensively and posing as a consistent negative defensively. The fact that his jump shot has mostly abandoned him since leaving Virginia -- he's 37-of-133 (28%) from 3 through 51 games played in all competitions -- isn't a great sign for the 23-year old former national champion. Already on his second NBA team after being traded in the offseason, Oklahoma City will surely want to see more from him even if it made minimal investment in him as a throw-in to the Chris Paul deal for salary-cap matching purposes.
Jordan Poole (No. 28 pick, Golden State Warriors) -- A surprise first-round pick out of Michigan on draft night, Poole has played nearly 1,500 NBA minutes already, meaning the Warriors surely have a very good feel for what they have in him even without his extended G League stint. Poole is the second-leading scorer in the G League thus far at over 23 points per game, but is also leading the league in turnovers at nearly 5 per game, while continuing to struggle defensively -- long considered his biggest weakness.
Poole's lack of situational awareness really showed in one pivotal late-game moment in a game versus Canton last week. Up by four points with under 10 seconds to go, Poole needlessly bit on a Sheldon Mac pump-fake from behind the 3-point line, giving up a 4-point play that sent the game to overtime. The Warriors are already on the hook for the third season of Poole's rookie scale contract, but will likely have to see more from the 21-year old before deciding to pick up the nearly $4 million option on his final year prior to the start of next season.
Alen Smailagic (No. 39 pick, Golden State Warriors) -- Golden State went to great lengths to secure the services of the Serbian Smailagic, whom they'd identified as an organizational target as a teenager, trading up several times in the draft to land him. Two years into that experiment, many around the NBA are wondering if it was worth all the hassle.
Smailagic's play has been uninspiring on both ends of the floor, especially in terms of the modern elements as a passer, shooter and defender teams want to see from big men. At just 20 years old, time is on Smailagic's side, but with the Warriors' luxury tax situation and a significant roster crunch, it's a fair question to ask whether their limited resources may have been better spent elsewhere.
Who's pushing for an NBA call-up?
While plenty of NBA contracted players are down in Orlando on assignment, the majority of the league is still made up of rank-and-file G Leaguers, on contracts worth $35,000-$85,000, hoping for a sniff from the many executives in attendance. The G League has had many players in this mold find success over the years, including the likes of Christian Wood, Danny Green, Robert Covington, Shaun Livingston, Seth Curry, Justin Holiday, Garrett Temple, Spencer Dinwiddie, Kendrick Nunn, Hassan Whiteside, Danuel House, Gerald Green, and many others.
Who could be next? (all stats through Thursday's games)
Louis King, 6-8, small forward, Oregon (Westchester Knicks), 21.8 years old
Surprisingly undrafted in 2019 after a one-and-done season capped by a strong postseason run at Oregon, King found himself out of the NBA entirely at age 21, which was likely a wake-up call for the former McDonald's All-American. NBA scouts say that was more due to off-floor concerns than his evaluation as a NBA caliber player, concerns King has had to work hard to alleviate.
He would be a junior in college had he not left Oregon early, and surely would be projected as a first-round draft pick with what he's shown in the G League so far.
King has proven to be one of the best shooters in the G League thus far, making 50% of his 3-pointers while intriguing evaluators by handling the ball in pick-and-roll, shooting off the dribble and making plays for others. At 6-8 with a 7-foot wingspan and impressive fluidity, there just aren't that many wing players in his mold in the G League who can dribble, pass and shoot, which makes King an easy target for a league starved for players in that mold.
While he needs to get stronger, King also has some untapped potential defensively that could be developed as well. He's long and rangy and has shown the ability to defend players of several different types, using his length to bother smaller players and using his size to put a body on big men. His Westchester Knicks utilize smaller lineups with very liberal switching, which has offered King plenty of opportunity to show his versatility. If the intel on King checks out, expect him to get a call-up to the NBA fairly soon.
Freddie Gillespie, 6-9, Center, Baylor (Memphis Hustle), 23.7 years old
The rookie from Baylor is already the most unlikely story in the G League, a former D3 bench player and D-! walk-on who looks likely to add NBA player to his résumé if his play in the bubble is any indication.
Gillespie size and scoring ability don't stand out, but he is arguably the most versatile defensive big man the G League has to offer. He's exceptionally mobile with his ability to switch, hedge or trap pick-and-rolls, and his timing, the quickness with which he recovers to the paint, gets off his feet and gigantic reach make him a significant factor as a rim-protector as well. He brings tremendous energy every time he steps on the floor, being one of the better rebounders in the G League, and does a lot of little things for his team that don't always stand out in the boxscore.
Considering his trajectory, Gillespie could very well still have some untapped upside despite being 23 years old, and it wouldn't be surprising if a team decided to give him a two-way or 10-day contract to see how his defense and hustle translates to NBA settings.
Jalen Adams, 6-3, Point Guard, UConn (Erie Bayhawks), 25.2 years old
With several NBA teams possibly in search of help at point guard, it may make sense to look at the engine behind the team with the best record in the G League as a potential call-up candidate.
The UConn product Adams had a strong rookie season in the G League last year, coming off an up-and-down college career, and then asked out of a contract he signed in France this summer to continue to pursue his NBA dream in the bubble.
Adams' athleticism and scoring instincts have never been in question, but his shaky decision-making, inefficient style and lackluster defense have prevented him from reaching his full potential.
Adams is starting to show signs of maturity in the bubble and may be intriguing for a team looking for a toolsy guard with upside to offer scoring punch off the bench. He's one of the shiftiest guards in the league, is dynamic in the open floor and creating out of pick-and-roll, and is outstanding shooting off the dribble, even out to the 3-point line. While he still can't be considered a stopper, he's shown a higher level of intensity defensively that pairs well with his strong frame, long arms and impressive instincts.
A run to the championship with solid two-way play from Adams could help solidify his candidacy as a NBA prospect.
Alize Johnson, 6-8, Power Forward/Center, Missouri State (Raptors 905), 24.8 years old
The No. 50 pick in the 2018 NBA Draft, Johnson saw just 182 minutes in his two years with the Indiana Pacers but proved to be a dominant force every time he was sent down to the G League. He's continued along the same trajectory this season as a free agent now with the Toronto Raptors G League affiliate, ranking as the second-best rebounder in the league while dishing out an impressive four assists per game.
Johnson sees time at both big man spots for Toronto but is primarily charged with doing the dirty work alongside the perimeter-oriented Henry Ellenson. His ability to push the ball up the court off the defensive glass gives his team great versatility getting into their offense, and allows him to display his terrific passing ability throwing bullets to the corner off a live dribble.
Power forward-sized but without great length, Johnson's unconventional one handed jump-shot is probably the biggest thing holding him back from returning to the 3-point crazed NBA. Despite his funky form, he has knocked down 36% of his 3-pointers in the G League in 60 games, so its possible this part of his game could still be developed.
What Johnson always brings is the defensive intensity, versatility and character that could make him an easy stopgap for a team that needs to plug a hole due to an injury.
Khyri Thomas, 6-4, shooting guard/small forward, Creighton (Austin Spurs), 24.7 years old
The No. 38 pick in the 2018 draft, Thomas has only played 64 total minutes in the bubble thus far due to a hamstring injury, but made a strong impression in his time on the floor. He scored 49 points, while knocking down a barrage of jumpers from both mid-range and beyond the arc, showing excellent mechanics in the process. Streaky shooting in Thomas' two-year NBA stint, along with a foot injury that required surgery and caused him to miss significant time, derailed his chances of finding a roster spot after a new front office regime cleaned house this summer, but Thomas will surely have plenty of NBA eyes on him when he returns to action later this week.
Thomas' strong frame, 6-11 wingspan and multi-positional defensive versatility gives him a strong NBA niche if his jump shot, which was a major weapon in college (41% in three years at Creighton) continues to fall in the G League.
Jordan Bell, 6-9, power forward/center, Oregon (Erie Bayhawks), 26.1 years old
A starter for the Warriors in the opening game of the 2019 NBA Finals, it's been quite a fall from grace for Jordan Bell, who is still only 26 years old and on an Exhibit 10 contract.
He's revived himself in the G League bubble as the leading scorer and defensive anchor of the Bayhawks, who at 8-2 are in first place in the league. Despite recently suffering an injury that will keep him out for an undetermined amount of time, Bell has been arguably the best player in the league, averaging 17.6 points, 9.1 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 2.1 blocks and 1.3 steals per game, while shooting a robust 81% from the field.
Bell is potentially the most skilled big man in the league operating out of ball screens, thanks to his outstanding timing as a roller, excellent creativity as a finisher and terrific passing ability out of short rolls. Surrounded by a plethora of excellent shooters and passers, Bell has played highly unselfish basketball, all while demonstrating the trademark effort and toughness on both ends of the floor that made him a fan favorite in his time in Golden State.
Still fairly thin and not particularly long or explosive for a center, while not possessing the type of shooting range you might hope from a power forward, Bell remains a tricky fit for some NBA lineups, as he doesn't fit into any one neat box. Still, he's such a smart, creative, versatile player that there surely is a spot for him somewhere in the league, especially considering the amount of experience he brings to the table. NBA scouts say concerns surrounding his maturity and approach are likely more of what's keeping him out of the NBA than basketball reasons, but at age 26, Bell's recent play could very well cause someone to kick the tires on him to see if he's deserving of another shot -- provided his recent injury isn't too serious.
Gary Payton II, 6-3, point guard, Oregon State (Raptors 905), 28.2 years old
Bouncing in and out of the NBA consistently since he graduated from Oregon State in 2016, Payton has gotten his fair share of opportunity but has never found a way to stick due to his shortcomings as a perimeter shooter (career 26% from 3). He hasn't done much to dispel that notion in the G League so far, hitting 2 of his 17 3-point attempts in nine games. But Payton is such a terror defensively, averaging an absurd 5 steals and 1.8 blocks per-40 minutes, as well as 10.1 rebounds, that he's always going to be in the mix for a call-up because of the energy and versatility he brings on that end of the floor.
Rob Edwards, 6-5, shooting guard, Arizona State (Oklahoma City Blue), 24.0 years old
Ranked fourth in the G League in 3-pointers made, while hitting 47% of his overall attempts, it's safe to say that the Arizona State product hasn't had any issues translating his shooting mechanics to NBA range. The fact that most of Edwards' 3-point makes have come while shooting off the dribble is notable as well, as he consistently punishes defenses for going under ball screens or failing to meet him while pushing the ball up the court in transition.
Standing 6-5 with a powerfully built frame and an ability to make his presence felt inside the arc as well, Edwards is not just a one-dimensional shooter. He offers some real toughness on the defensive end, and despite his lack of length ranks second in the league in defensive rating.
Just an average ball handler and not blessed with the best basketball instincts around, Edwards still has some things to prove as a passer and shot-creator from the 2-guard position, as he's shooting just 39% from inside the arc. With that said, he's done a good job of keeping things simple for the most part in terms of playing winning basketball. Already 24, he's not as young a rookie as some recent college graduates but may have demonstrated enough value as a shot-making bucket-getter off the bench to earn himself a look in the NBA to see how his game translates.
Jonathan Givony is an NBA draft expert and the founder and co-owner of DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service utilized by NBA, NCAA and international teams.