ORLANDO, Florida -- The 2021 NBA G League schedule tipped off in Orlando on Feb. 10, with 17 G League teams joining the G League Ignite program -- launched to offer players who are not yet eligible for the NBA draft a domestic path to the league -- for a 135-game regular season followed by a single-elimination playoff tournament that will begin March 8. ESPN was in Orlando to evaluate the four Ignite players who are part of the G League's Pathway program and are eligible for the 2021 NBA draft -- potential top-5 picks Jonathan Kuminga and Jalen Green along with possible first-rounders Daishen Nix and Isaiah Todd.
Here's the latest on all four Ignite stars, including inside intel from NBA executives we spoke to in Orlando, Kuminga's growing No. 1 pick case and the next steps for Green. ESPN also looked ahead to the future of the G League Ignite program, identifying some of the names from the 2022 NBA draft class who could be targets for the second edition of the Ignite squad, including potential 2022 No. 1 NBA draft pick Chet Holmgren.
Ignite team arrives ahead of schedule ... in an improved league
The NBA's introduction to the G League Ignite team came in a pair of December scrimmages in which five teenage starters played against a mostly anonymous group of G League backups in their mid-to-late 20s.
"A good old fashioned butt-whooping," coach Brian Shaw said of the scrimmages, the second of which saw his Ignite team fall behind by 25 points at halftime. "It was good for us."
NBA executives told ESPN at the time that they didn't expect Ignite -- the new entity highlighted by Jalen Green and others who passed up college basketball to prepare for the draft in a professional setting -- to win a single game in the regular season.
Fast-forward to February, and a very different situation has emerged in the G League bubble outside of Orlando.
Shaw is now staggering the minutes of Green and the younger prospects -- mostly playing only two of them together at a time -- alongside rock-solid veterans Jarrett Jack, Donta Hall and Brandon Ashley. The Ignite find themselves at 6-3 and right in the thick of the playoff race, in a tie for fourth ahead of the G League's eight-team, single-elimination tournament to be played March 8-11.
Outside of one ugly blowout to the Erie Bayhawks (127-87), the Ignite have been competitive in every game they have played, rarely looking overmatched in a league that has taken tangible steps to improve its quality.
Reducing the number of teams from 28 to 18 has eliminated roughly 100 players from the bottom end of the league that lowered the level of past competition. In Orlando, there are 66 former NBA draft picks scattered about the 17 rosters (not including those on Ignite), including 28 of 60 players picked in the 2020 NBA Draft. That's in addition to the roughly 25 players on two-way contracts who have been on assignment in the G League. Eliminating commercial travel and having all teams in a single location has gone a long way in helping keep teams fresh.
Chet Holmgren, the No. 1 recruit for the class of 2021 in the ESPN Top 100, shows off the handles on a coast-to-coast play vs. YPSI Prep.
While the intensity level of the G League fluctuates from game to game due to its fast-paced, 3-point heavy, small-ball nature, there is no question that the Ignite get every team's best shot due to the huge amount of NBA eyeballs on their every game.
NBA executives I talked to in Orlando almost uniformly agreed that watching the Ignite's draft prospects play under NBA rules and against high-level professionals was extremely helpful for their assessments. Evaluators can now worry less about how college or international prospects will translate their skills to the NBA. Can a player extend his range to the NBA 3-point line? How will he deal with the 3-second defensive violation rules? How does his size and athleticism compare with NBA players? The answers are right here.
How that translates on draft night is yet to be decided, but there's a good case to be made that all four prospects have helped themselves significantly thus far.
Here's a closer look at those future stars and others who have made an impression in Orlando, as well as a look ahead to what 2022 could bring for the Ignite squad:
Jonathan Kuminga: A case for the No. 1 pick?
NBA executive attendance peaked in the first week of the G League bubble, which happened to coincide with Kuminga's best stretch of play and caused many in the group to openly ponder his candidacy as the potential No. 1 pick in the draft. Kuminga averaged 22 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists per game in his first three contests -- though he's struggled to score efficiently at times since. His jump shot has been streaky, his decision-making questionable at times and his defensive lapses more frequent.
Kuminga is perhaps the most physically gifted prospect in this draft class, something that was noticeable even against current and former NBA players, whom he mostly towers over from the small forward position. At 6-foot-8 with long arms and a tremendous frame, Kuminga is quick, powerful and explosive with outstanding balance, fluidity and body control. He has a chance to dominate his position in the NBA from a physical standpoint thanks to his superior tools and rapidly improving ball skills.
"He's the one guy from the young guys that has the physicality, the body to be physical already at the next level," Shaw said.
Kuminga's potential as a shot-creator has stood out, be it in isolation, post-ups or out of pick-and-roll. He's shifty with the ball, has polished footwork and long strides changing speeds out of hesitation moves and is highly instinctual using shot-fakes, step-throughs, spin moves and other advanced moves that are difficult to contain considering his size, strength and skill finishing creatively with either hand.
"He's a nightmare -- if they put a smaller guy on him, he takes advantage of that. If you put a bigger guy on him, he drives around him," Shaw said.
Kuminga struggles when his initial move is contained, as he's an average passer who doesn't see the floor very well and settles too often for difficult, low-percentage pull-up jumpers. Kuminga hasn't gotten to the free throw line very often and is shooting just 49% from 2-point range, a poor mark.
While improving his decision making and playing less of a catch-and-hold style will go a long way in making him a more efficient offensive player, Kuminga's jump shot has plenty of room to grow as well, partially due to his shot selection. He's just 12-of-47 (26%) from beyond the 3-point line thus far, struggling equally with his feet set and off the dribble. NBA executives seem to have mixed opinions on how good of a shooter they see Kuminga developing into long-term.
Some note the quantity of makes (over one 3-pointer per game), his deep range, the confidence he demonstrates in his stroke and the fact that the ball comes out of his hand nicely with a consistent release point, even off movement. Others are concerned about his historically low percentages from the free throw line (67% in the G League, in line with the rest of his career) and the fact that he sprays his misses in all different directions, including frequently not hitting the rim.
"The more experience he gets, the better feel for the game he's going to get," Shaw said. "If anything, trusting that if he gives the ball up he's going to get it back. That's the case with all our young guys."
Defensively, Kuminga has drawn mixed reactions as well. This side of the floor is where the transition from high school to the pro game is usually the steepest, and that's been the case for Kuminga. His focus and intensity level has fluctuated in the G League as it has for much of his career, and his awareness off the ball leaves a lot to be desired as well. Navigating screens, biting on fakes and gambling in passing lanes are some of the issues he'll have to clean up long-term.
With that said, Kuminga will be as good a defender as he wants to be when it's all said and done, as he has the physical tools of an All-NBA defender when evaluating his combination of size, length, strength, quickness and agility.
When Kuminga is locked in and competing to his full potential he's an absolute marvel with his ability to sit down and contain smaller players, cover ground seamlessly on closeouts, or switch onto bigger players and hold them off in the post. Playing the small forward position has been good experience for Kuminga in terms of learning how to guard smaller, quicker players and operate in larger spaces off the ball, something that has yielded mixed results but should pay off long term.
NBA teams will want to see how much Kuminga is able to grow over the remainder of the G League season in terms of his understanding of the game on both ends of the floor and ability to put his phenomenal tools to use more consistently. He has already solidified himself as one of the best prospects in the draft, drawing comparisons to the likes of Jaylen Brown and DeMar DeRozan, and could further improve his candidacy for the No. 1 pick with a strong finish.
Jalen Green: Dangerous in transition, half-court game incomplete
While Kuminga got off to the stronger start, Green has been the Ignite's most consistent player overall, leading the team in scoring and doing so on strong percentages (54% on 2s and 37% on 3s) while demonstrating growth as a playmaker as the season has moved on.
Green's highlights speak for themselves, as his explosiveness and track-meet-style quickness are arguably the best in this draft. That has manifested itself most notably in transition, where Green has been an absolute terror in the wide-open G League, turning defense to offense in the blink of an eye and getting deep in the paint regularly for show-stopping finishes.
"He understands that he's a target," Shaw said. "Probably the highest-paid player here. He gets the most recognition. Every single game I can feel that the other team is targeting him. He's used to that -- not on this level, but he's always had a target on his back. He's never backed down from that."
The half court has been more of a mixed bag for Green, which is not unexpected considering his thin frame, lack of polish and experience. Green's ballhandling, passing and overall decision-making still aren't at the level they need to be in order to consistently play efficient basketball against this level of competition, but the NBA executives who are highest on his long-term potential believe it's only a matter of time until this comes because of his scoring instincts and quick-twitch ability to change gears powerfully and get himself to the rim.
Green's shot-making has been a revelation in the bubble thus far, as he's proven to be a major weapon pulling up off the dribble, progressing from what he had shown in his senior year of high school. The fact that defenses need to respect his jumper coming off a ball screen, even from beyond the NBA line, has opened up quite a few options for him operating in pick-and-roll.
As he continues to get stronger and is able to handle contact better in the lane, Green has some real equity as the type of big, playmaking guard every NBA team covets, something he has shown flashes of inconsistently.
In the meantime, the fact that Green is such a dangerous transition scorer, as well as a capable spot-up shooter off the ball, should allow him to be productive early in his career as his ball skills continue to progress.
"The growth has come in the confidence in knowing that he belongs," Shaw said. "That comes with getting a better understanding of the physicality and speed of the game. Knowing when to pick and choose his spots."
Green's defense has been inconsistent in the bubble. He has seen a lot of minutes defending the opposing team's primary ball handler, where his lack of strength and average awareness navigating ball screens has led to some poor results. Green is still learning the nuances of pick-and-roll defense, and his at times inconsistent intensity has worked against him.
A welcome sign has been the fight he has shown as the season has progressed in terms of getting in a stance, sliding his feet and using his quickness to create turnovers or his explosiveness to contest shots at the rim or on the perimeter. The fact that Green is both tough and competitive should allow him to improve rapidly here as his frame evolves, but he'll surely have his struggles on the defensive end early in his career.
"He's really getting better on the defensive end," Shaw said. "Guys try to take advantage of him because of his slight build, but he's sliding his feet, holding his ground, getting better and better at negotiating his way through professional NBA sets that he's having to defend for the first time."
Green has done nothing to detract from his status as a projected top-five pick with his play in Orlando, and there are teams who believe he is deserving of consideration at No. 1 as well. Continuing to show that his jump shot is a real asset and that he can make good decisions on both ends of the floor as the stakes get higher will go a long way in solidifying his standing.
Daishen Nix: A physical guard, but concerns abound
Nix has been up-and-down as a scorer but has proven to be one of the best passers in the G League bubble, as well as the second-best rebounding guard in the league, a testament to the versatility and instincts the 19-year old possesses. At 6-5, 230 pounds, Nix has an advantage over virtually every guard he matches up with both in terms of size and physicality -- he has been extremely difficult for G League guards to handle attacking the paint.
Several NBA executives in Orlando expressed disappointment with the poor conditioning level that Nix came into the G League displaying, as he has gained more than 20 pounds of mostly bad weight since his high school days, raising questions whether he could have done a better of job taking care of his body. Getting Nix in better shape shouldn't be too big of a task, but teams have been left to ponder how he allowed this to happen considering the stakes of this shortened season and whether his off-court habits and approach are something to be concerned with long term.
Nix undoubtedly has the best feel for the game of any of the G League prospects, which when combined with his size and strength gives him an easy NBA skill to hang his hat on. He has looked quite natural running a team despite making the steep transition from high school to the pro game despite playing the most difficult position to master, which speaks to the instincts he possesses and how naturally the game comes to him. That manifests itself most vividly with the phenomenal creativity he displays as a passer, as Nix is a natural at manipulating ball screens, changing speeds and passing with either hand on the move.
He uses both sides of the floor, has phenomenal touch on his lobs and throws one or two magnificent outlet passes per game the full length of the floor to a teammate in full stride for an easy basket. That creativity can lead to some overconfidence in the difficulty of passes he delivers, as Nix has turned the ball over on 23% of his possessions thus far, a very high rate.
Nix has been a mixed bag as a scorer. While capable of bullying smaller guards en route to the rim, he is just an average finisher at this stage. Nix plays exclusively below the rim, relies heavily on floaters, runners and other touch shots in traffic, leading to mixed results (45% on 2s).
Nix's jump shot is undoubtedly his swing skill at the NBA level. G League teams don't think twice about going under ball screens, and Nix has struggled badly to punish them for doing so, hitting just 3-of-17 of the pull-up jumpers he has attempted in the bubble thus far, per Synergy Sports Technology. The fact that he's capable of making 3-pointers with his feet set does give him some flexibility in operating off the ball, but until he develops some semblance of a pull-up game -- at least operating in midrange spots -- it's going to be difficult to fully unlock his playmaking ability because he's not any kind of jet with the ball.
Nix's defense will also play a significant factor in how quickly he's able to carve out a niche at the NBA level. The results have been highly inconsistent so far, as Nix has struggled badly to stay in front of quicker guards in open spaces, not demonstrating the foot speed to avoid getting blown by off the dribble and forcing his teammates to scramble in rotation constantly. Getting in better shape should help, but playing with a higher intensity level will be imperative as well.
Nix is too often caught standing straight up out of a stance off the ball, wanting to gamble in the passing lanes instead. Nix's excellent reaction speed and overall terrific instincts -- as evidenced by his phenomenal rebounding numbers -- indicate there's some potential to improve as his technique, experience and effort evolves, but it's going to take patience and development to get to the point that he's not a negative on this end of the floor.
Perhaps more than any of the other Ignite prospects, Nix has a lot to gain from a strong finish to the G League season, and then a productive pre-draft process answering questions about his body type and approach to the game. His draft stock is all over the map depending on which NBA executive you ask, with some feeling he's comfortably showing he's worthy of a first-round selection and others seeing him as more of a second-round flier.
Isaiah Todd: From afterthought to first-rounder?
Todd has helped himself as much as any player in the bubble so far. After entering the G League season projected to go undrafted, he has dropped enough glimpses of potential that some executives are openly considering his candidacy as a first-round pick.
There aren't many big men in the G League who have shown better perimeter shooting ability than the 6-foot-10 Todd has thus far, hitting 39% of his 3-point attempts. He has picture-perfect mechanics both with his feet set and even off movement -- Todd can pull up off the dribble or come off a screen (mostly midrange curls) in small doses. There's a theoretical quality to Todd's game that doesn't fully translate to game settings just yet, but watching him in warm-ups or drill situations reveals a very high skill level that could potentially be honed into a real weapon over time.
For as interesting as Todd's shooting stroke is, he's a fairly limited offensive player at this time, as evidenced by his poor 40% 2-point percentage, and the fact that he has dished out just 3 assists in 202 minutes of action thus far, ranking dead last among all players in assist percentage in the ESPN top-100 prospect rankings. It's difficult to find many power forwards in the NBA who have such limited ability to make decisions on the fly and make plays out of simple actions -- this is by far the biggest thing he'll have to work on. Patterning his game on NBA players such as JaMychal Green and Bobby Portis will likely represent Todd's best path to success.
Defensively, Todd has unquestionably been the Ignite's hardest-working player so far. He's blessed with outstanding mobility that allows him to cover ground seamlessly on closeouts, get back in transition to challenge shots at the rim and even sit down in a stance and slide his feet against smaller players on switches much more effectively than you'd expect.
Todd isn't much of a playmaker on the defensive end, averaging a paltry 7.5 rebounds, 0.6 steals and 0.8 blocks per 40 minutes, which underscores his lack of length (7-foot-1 wingspan) and the fact that the game simply moves too fast for him at this stage -- something that has long been considered his biggest weakness. While he plays hard, he's not a very physical big man on top of that, partially due to his slender frame. While theoretically you'd like to see a big man his size slide up to the center position at times in smaller, stretchier lineups, there are real question marks about whether Todd's frame and lack of defensive rebounding will allow him to do so, which renders him less versatile than most teams want to see from a modern big man.
Many eyebrows were raised around the basketball industry when Todd opted to forgo a scholarship at Michigan for the G League Ignite program, but that decision appears to be paying off in a major way thus far. It's unclear what kind of role he would have had for a stacked Michigan frontcourt, or how well his style of play would have fit into its offense. There's no question that the uptempo style of play of the G League suits his game better, helping Todd solidify his standing as a potential draft pick, and possibly even as a first-round pick depending on how the rest of his season and the pre-draft process goes.
Looking ahead to the 2022 Ignite squad
With the G League Ignite program looking like a resounding success for both prospects and the NBA at these early stages, many around the industry are wondering what next season could bring. Will the league be able to shell out huge contracts to another crop of Ignite players?
Sources say the G League is being very aggressive approaching top recruits, including those who are committed to schools. Top-10 recruits Jaden Hardy and Michael Foster are considered G League "leans" right now, and a significant push to land potential 2022 No. 1 pick Chet Holmgren is underway as well. Five-star big man Efton Reid, who is in the midst of a postgraduate year at IMG Academy and is draft eligible in 2021, is another possibility for the G League if he doesn't like what he's hearing from the NBA regarding his draft prospects this spring and summer.
The big wild card is the potential progress the NCAA makes with name, image and likeness legislation. For example, Gonzaga's ability to counter a lucrative offer to Holmgren from the G League could hinge on his ability to cash in on NIL as a collegian. Would the new legislation allow Holmgren to land a sneaker deal while in college? Other endorsement opportunities? Unfortunately for college basketball fans, the snail's pace at which this legislation is moving along might end up making this a moot point.
The G League will surely want to find ways to make their program financially viable as well. Major sponsorship opportunities for naming rights, as well as trips abroad for barnstorming tours to places like the Philippines, never became a serious option due to the pandemic, sources say. The NBA surely will want to see a return on their investment at some point, which could begin to happen as early as next season if the right pieces are in place.
With an $8.8 billion dollar television contract for the NCAA tournament locked in until 2032, the NCAA likely won't feel much of a threat if Ignite continues to take only a handful of top prospects every year, something it openly encouraged the NBA to do via the Rice Commission recommendations.
Jonathan Givony is an NBA draft expert and the founder and co-owner of DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service utilized by NBA, NCAA and international teams.