The Duke Blue Devils and freshman phenom Jalen Johnson announced in a joint statement on Monday that Johnson would forgo the remainder of his freshman season and enter the 2021 NBA draft. Johnson played in just 13 games during what has been a disappointing season for both the five-star forward and a Blue Devils program that has become a long shot to reach the NCAA tournament. Given his sporadic play, questions will follow Johnson (11.2 points per game) into the draft process. ESPN identified the biggest questions, as well as the elements of his game that have impressed scouts during Johnson's partial season.
What are the expected draft implications of Jalen Johnson opting out of the rest of the season? Will the decision affect his stock?
The implications will be significant, as a player who entered college with an air of mystery will enter the draft process with similar questions. NBA teams are well aware of Johnson's pre-Duke background, which included a stint at IMG Academy, where Johnson spent only a handful of months and never played any games. Johnson returned to Nicolet High School in Wisconsin before signing with Duke. With only 13 games under his belt at the collegiate level, most played at less than 100 percent, additional mystery will be attached to Johnson's pre-draft profile.
Johnson and Duke both cited concerns regarding the health of his foot in his decision to opt out. He injured his foot in mid-December and missed nearly a month of action. Per sources with knowledge of the situation, the injury reportedly never fully healed and is still not 100 percent, but Johnson likely could have continued to play through it.
Johnson had been coming off the bench for the past three games and saw only 8 minutes in Duke's 16-point win over NC State. Even when he was playing heavy minutes, it was mostly as a center -- alongside Duke's best player, power forward Matthew Hurt -- which sources close to the situation said wasn't the role Johnson envisioned when he committed to Duke.
We'll never know what might have happened if Johnson was playing substantial minutes alongside another big man better equipped to do the type of dirty work that isn't exactly his forte -- putting a body on centers, being physical on the glass -- or if he would have been more likely to stay if the team was winning. The fact that Johnson's playing time had dwindled -- and that the already smaller role he'd play would come at the 5 -- could have had an impact on his draft stock, along with the fact that his foot wasn't at full strength.
Don't discount how unusual a season this has been for guys like Johnson, who dreamed of playing at a sold-out Cameron Indoor Stadium and being the big man on campus in Durham, North Carolina, but instead had a very different experience because of the pandemic.
There's no doubt that Johnson's draft stock will take a hit in the short term and that this decision will raise plenty of question marks over the next few months. Finding the right advocate to put Johnson's decision in the best light possible and ease some of the concerns NBA scouts might have about his track record for leaving schools abruptly will be a major key.
What skills did Johnson display in his shortened season that impressed scouts? What parts of his game are perceived as still needing work?
Johnson is one of the most uniquely versatile prospects in this class. Despite standing 6-foot-9 with a chiseled frame, he has the ballhandling and passing ability of a guard, to go along with explosive physical skills in the open court. He is a highly instinctual player who demonstrates outstanding timing getting in passing lanes, rotating for blocks, stepping in for charges and high-pointing rebounds off the glass. He is one of the best players in this draft at busting out off the defensive glass and igniting the break. He is powerful in the open floor but also sees the court at a very high level, and he is capable of making pinpoint passes all over the floor. That same vision extends to the half court, where he has significant potential as a big playmaker operating out of pick-and-roll sets.
Johnson's shooting is the biggest thing he'll have to work on long term. There's nothing fluid about his hitchy, one-handed jump shot. Even though he made 44% of his 3-pointers at Duke, it came on a very small sample (8-of-18 shooting), and the struggles he encountered at the free throw line (64%) were perhaps a better indication of where he is as a shooter. Johnson also was turnover-prone; for as quality of a passer as he is, his decision-making often left a lot to be desired.
Despite Johnson's gaudy rebounding and defensive playmaking stats, there are some questions he'll have to answer in the physicality and toughness departments, as well. There were questionable interactions over the course of the season with teammates and on the bench when Johnson wasn't getting his touches or things weren't going his way. Despite his preference for being a perimeter player, it's very likely that Johnson will see some minutes as a small-ball center in the NBA, as well, so doing a better job of handling contact in the lane on both ends of the floor will surely help his cause.
Should we expect to see additional opt-outs in the 2021 draft class? How will this affect the degree of scouting difficulty for NBA evaluators?
With only three weeks left in the regular season, I would be surprised if we saw other players elect to take this route. The fact that Johnson legitimately has an injury and also is on a team with almost no chance of making the NCAA tournament likely played a significant role in this decision.
Jonathan Givony is an NBA draft expert and the founder and co-owner of DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service utilized by NBA, NCAA and international teams.