What does Markelle Fultz's ACL injury mean for his development and the Orlando Magic?
The No. 1 overall pick of the 2017 NBA draft by the Philadelphia 76ers has found a home in Orlando and recently signed a three-year extension to his rookie contract. That makes the timing of his injury all the more disappointing. Fultz joins fellow 2017 lottery pick Jonathan Isaac as the second Magic starter sidelined by an ACL tear this season.
Will the 6-2 Magic maintain their strong start without Fultz? And what does a season cut short by injury mean for Fultz in the long term? Let's take a look.
Magic short-handed at PG
Before Fultz's injury in the early stages of Wednesday's game, Orlando had played every minute this season with either Fultz or his backup (rookie Cole Anthony) at point guard. Ready or not, Anthony will be asked to step into a much larger role early in his development.
The North Carolina product has impressed with his rebounding (he's grabbing 10.5% of available rebounds, better than the average small forward) and sure-handed play (just 1.9 turnovers per 36 minutes thus far) but has not been an accurate shooter in the early going. Anthony is 4-of-17 (23.5%) from 3-point range and has been little more accurate (32%) inside the arc.
Playing with the Magic's starting five, Anthony would be wise to look first to distribute to his teammates. He has finished plays at an above-average rate (22% usage), and while that's still lower than Fultz's 25% usage rate, Orlando can better redistribute those shots to center Nikola Vucevic (25% usage) and Evan Fournier (20%) as soon as the latter returns from back spasms that have sidelined him the past three games.
With combo guard Michael Carter-Williams also sidelined Wednesday by a mild bone bruise and ligament sprain in his left foot, Magic coach Steve Clifford turned to two-way player Jordan Bone as Anthony's backup. Bone played well, scoring seven points in 12 minutes, and will get a valuable opportunity to prove he can hold down a rotation spot in Carter-Williams' absence.
If Bone struggles, it could increase the urgency for Orlando to add veteran help at point guard after losing backup D.J. Augustin to the Milwaukee Bucks in free agency. As my colleague Bobby Marks noted on Twitter, the Magic will surely receive an injury exception worth $6.1 million because of Fultz's injury to go with a $3.7 million injury exception they already hold due to Isaac's absence.
The luxury tax is an obstacle to Orlando using one or both of those exceptions. The Magic are currently $2.8 million below the tax line but might want to leave wiggle room for unlikely incentives in the contracts of Fournier, Aaron Gordon and Terrence Ross. Orlando also doesn't currently have an open roster spot and would need to either send out a player as part of a trade or eat a contract.
Orlando's hot start possibly unsustainable before injury
Wednesday's win kept the Magic in a tie for the NBA's second-best record at 6-2, a surprising start given low expectations for an Orlando team that lost Augustin and Gordon without making much noise last offseason. In part, the Magic have benefited from a favorable early schedule. Weighting the teams they've played twice (Cleveland, Oklahoma City and Washington), Orlando's opponents are a combined 19-23 (.452) against other teams this season.
The Magic have also benefited from poor opponent shooting in the early going. Teams have shot 32% from 3-point range against Orlando, the league's third-lowest mark. Poor opponent 3-point shooting was also a factor in the Magic's 6-2 start to 2017-18, which proved a mirage: Orlando finished 25-57 in Frank Vogel's final season as the Magic's head coach.
The magnitude of opponents' shooting struggles against the Magic isn't nearly so strong this time around, and Orlando isn't getting the same kind of shot-making boost on offense as during the first eight games of 2017-18. So the Magic's drop-off isn't likely to be nearly as severe; before Fultz's injury, FiveThirtyEight's projections had Orlando finishing a game above .500 on average, which would be an improvement on last season's 33-40 record.
A small silver lining for the Magic is that Fultz was not a huge part of their strong start. Since averaging 20.7 PPG during Orlando's first three games, all wins, he'd been struggling with his own efficiency, shooting 31% from the field in his last four full games. Still, Fultz's size and playmaking will be difficult for the Magic to replace.
Setback in Fultz's development, with a caveat
Bigger than the short-term ramifications of Fultz's injury is the fact that he's missing out on another season of development. Fultz played just 33 games in his first two seasons before being traded to Orlando, and the 72 games he played in 2019-20 represented the bulk of his NBA action to date. He'll finish his four-year rookie contract having played 113 games total (as well as eight more in the playoffs). Unfortunately, that's a familiar story for the Magic, as Isaac's ACL tear means he'll have played just 136 games during the same span.
The optimistic view is Fultz will be able to use his rehabilitation time to continue working on his outside shot. Although he has shown dramatic progress at the foul line with the Magic (making 75% of his attempts, as compared to 53% of his limited tries with Philadelphia) and has become confident shooting off the dribble inside the arc, Fultz has yet to translate that success beyond the arc. He has made 3s at just a 26.5% clip in Orlando.
Unfortunately, my research has found that outside shooting is typically hampered by rust after an ACL injury, and the timing of Fultz's injury means that he's unlikely to be ready if the 2021-22 campaign starts on time. No player has returned from an ACL tear in fewer than 11 months since J.J. Hickson in 2014, suggesting Fultz likely won't be back in the lineup until December.