Ever since LeBron James took his talents to Los Angeles in 2018, the Eastern Conference has been up for grabs. This year is no exception. During the King's reigns in Miami and Cleveland, the race for the Eastern Conference crown seemed like a formality, but now it includes at least five teams that believe they can reach the NBA Finals this season -- with three more potential challengers on the periphery.
A quick look at Las Vegas futures via Caesars Sportsbook reveals the oddsmakers see three clear tiers of contenders two weeks into the young season. Let's dive into these tiers and the most interesting early trends.
Tier 1: The co-favorites
Milwaukee Bucks (+230)
Once again, the Bucks are favored to come out of the East, but once again there are real doubts here. The good news is that they lead the NBA in both offensive efficiency and net rating. The bad news is that the Bucks' impressive statistical markers aren't translating to dominance in the standings. They are just 4-3, and while their early-season resume includes three wins by at least 30 points, it also includes a 20-point loss to the New York Knicks.
Milwaukee might not deserve the benefit of the doubt come playoff time, but we should trust that this team will find its regular-season groove. If the Bucks win fewer games while working through more playoff-focused experimentation, that's totally fine.
Brooklyn Nets (+240)
After a dazzling 2-0 start, the Nets have gone just 1-3 in their past four, including a tough home loss to the Washington Wizards on Sunday. Still, Brooklyn's new superstar duo has looked terrific in its first few weeks together. While the team at large has a nice overall net rating of plus-4.3, that figure surges to plus-17.5 when Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving have shared the floor.
Durant and Irving are combining to produce 55 points per game on just 38 shots. Both players are in the top 10 in scoring. According to ESPN Stats & Information, they are the fourth pair of teammates over the past 25 seasons to each average 25 points in their first five games together.
The others?
Anthony Davis and LeBron James in 2019-20
Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant in 2016-17
Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony in 2006-07
Two of the pairings ended those seasons with confetti on their heads, and Brooklyn's elite duo could easily join them if everything goes right.
The biggest risk to this outfit might be health-related. Both Durant and Irving have unfortunate histories of missing time. In a cruel early-season blow, Spencer Dinwiddie partially tore an ACL last week, possibly removing a key part of the Nets' rotation for this entire season.
With Durant sidelined for the next four games -- including a big test Thursday against the red-hot Sixers -- because of COVID-19 exposure, the Brooklyn honeymoon period might already be over.
Tier 2: The legitimate threats
Philadelphia 76ers (+600)
No East team is threatening to rewrite early-season narratives as much as Philly. The Doc Rivers and Daryl Morey era is off to a great start. There are shooters -- yes, real actual shooters decorating the edges of the offensive end. New acquisitions Danny Green and Seth Curry have injected this squad with a double dose of much-needed spacing.
But the real story might be on the other end of the floor. If it's true that defense wins championships and this team can keep this up, then Philly is legit. The Sixers are the only team in the NBA posting a defensive rating under 100 points per 100 possessions, and the rotation is chock full of defensive performers who help get stops.
If the MVP were handed out after two weeks, then Joel Embiid would have a strong case. He has been dominant. Embiid is averaging 25 points and 13 boards, and the Sixers haven't lost any of the five games in which he's played. No player in the league has a better net rating: Philly has outscored its opponents by 21.2 points per 100 when Embiid has been on the floor. That figure might be unsustainable, but that doesn't mean it's not super encouraging for a brand-new coaching staff that's making changes on the fly amid the most rapid and challenging offseason in recent NBA history.
Boston Celtics (+600)
I nominate Boston as the team with the most confounding start in the East. Through eight games, the Celtics are posting merely a plus-1.0 net rating and have looked awful at times, including down the stretch Friday night in Detroit. After building a 93-88 lead with 4 minutes, 15 seconds left in the fourth quarter, they failed to score another point, allowing a winless team to come back and grab a victory. It was a brutal loss, and Boston followed it up with an uninspiring 122-120 victory over the same hapless Pistons on Sunday.
But there's good news in Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Boston possesses the best pair of young wings in the NBA. Both have looked great early, especially Brown, who is arguably the hottest volume scorer in the league right now. His jumper looks better than ever, and he's only getting more dominant near the bucket.
In fact, Tatum and Brown make up Boston's only plus two-man lineup combo that has logged more than 125 total minutes. The team's big questions are elsewhere.
Gordon Hayward is gone, and for the first time since the Al Horford-Aron Baynes era, coach Brad Stevens is regularly pairing two bigs in his lineups. Stevens has played small ball for years, but this year's Celts are starting Tristan Thompson and Daniel Theis, while the bench unit leans on both Grant Williams and Robert Williams III in the front court.
This pivot to two-big lineups might be interesting, but is it effective? Early results aren't encouraging. It's too soon to conclude anything, but the fact that the Celtics have a net rating of minus-20.7 in the 82 minutes that Thompson and Theis have been out there is at least an early red flag here.
Miami Heat (+650)
The Heat have just experienced one of the shortest offseasons in NBA history. These guys made an inspiring run to the Eastern Conference crown in the bubble but now find themselves playing real games again, barely two months after limping through the Finals. It's a cruel turnaround, with both physical and mental consequences.
Jimmy Butler, who is unquestionably the heart and soul of the squad, has epitomized the group's early-season malaise. He hurt an ankle last week, has missed two full games (including the team's awful 47-point loss to the Bucks) and played a bad game in his return to action vs. Dallas, logging more turnovers than points.
And turnovers have been a real problem for this team. Miami is averaging nearly 19.2 giveaways per game, which is the worst mark in the league. Their passes have been especially troublesome. The Heat rank dead last on turnover rate via passes, according to Second Spectrum tracking, as both Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic are making more mistakes than usual in this department.
Still, it's hard to get too worried about anything here given the rapid turnaround time and the recent evidence that suggests this is a really good postseason squad. The Heat might not be firing on all cylinders right now, but they don't need to be. Nobody will want any part of them in the first round -- or any round.
Tier 3: The peripheral challengers
Toronto Raptors (+1200)
The Raptors are one of the most consistent organizations in the NBA. They've won 50 or more games in five straight seasons and earned the title in 2019. They deserve respect. But they are just 1-5 this season and they have one of the worst offenses in the league so far.
The Raps also lost a ton of institutional wisdom, as both Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka departed for Los Angeles. Is it realistic for Aron Baynes and Chris Boucher to fill these giant shoes in Toronto's front court? Probably not.
Meanwhile, Pascal Siakam has not looked like himself since before the bubble. The Raptors haven't won a game he has played in yet this year, and they have posted a ghastly net rating of minus-16.7 when he's on the floor.
Time to be alarmed? Not yet. This group is enduring some of the biggest pandemic-related stresses in the league. They are suddenly playing out of Tampa, Florida, and living away from home full time. They've all had to upend their lives to even make this work, so if any team deserves a free pass for a slow start, it's these guys.
That said, if this offense doesn't start making shots, it could be a long season.
Atlanta Hawks (+2500)
Have you seen the Hawks play yet this season? If not, make an appointment. They are fun. If early trends continue, they will mimic last year's Mavs team. Tons of offense, not much defense and on their way to their first of many postseasons.
Of course, Trae Young and his 28.6 points per game get the headlines, but this team has really improved thanks to a bunch of new faces in Bogdan Bogdanovic, Danilo Gallinari, Rajon Rondo and new assistant coach Nate McMillan.
But don't sleep on the emergence of De'Andre Hunter. He fits well in between Young and John Collins on the wing and has the chance to become a prototypical 3-and-D guy for years to come. He is making a ridiculous 49% of his 3s, while also showing great improvement scoring inside the arc as well. The Hawks aren't actually a threat to come out of the East this year, but if these early trends are real, the future of this franchise is dangerous.
Indiana Pacers (+3000)
Once again, nobody is talking about the Pacers, but once again, they look like a legitimate postseason problem. They got a new coach. They are 5-2. They're finally shooting 3s. And Domantas Sabonis continues to improve. The 24-year-old All-Star is averaging 21 points, 11 rebounds and 7 assists per game, but he is only one of three Pacers averaging at least 20 PPG.
He's joined by Malcolm Brogdon and Victor Oladipo, who provide Indy with one of the best backcourts in the conference, period. Brogdon has already logged one 50/40/90 season in 2018-19 and might do it again this year. This isn't a glamorous bunch, but the rotation is filled with really good players -- even with T.J. Warren out of the picture for a while.
Last year, very few of us expected Miami to come out of the East. And in the midst of one of the strangest periods in league history, long-range predictions are harder than ever. The only safe bet is on chaos.