We're back with the first batch of 10 NBA things for the 2020-21 NBA season.
This week we spotlight the brilliance of Trae Young, the red-hot Brooklyn Nets, how Chris Paul's genius is boosting the Phoenix Suns, a fun innovation in Boston and two Western Conference players who need to make adjustments.
1. The simple ways Brooklyn hurts you
Through five games -- including one loss without both Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving -- the Nets rank fourth in offense and eighth in defense. They are not overthinking things on offense. They run after misses, leveraging their army of ball handlers and shooters. (One early weakness: securing those enemy misses. Brooklyn is dead last in defensive rebounding, a predictable vulnerability. Remember what Pat Riley preaches: No rebounds, no rings.)
They lost one member of that army with Spencer Dinwiddie's injury, and you can already see the trickle-down effect of Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot replacing Dinwiddie in what had been an unguardable starting five. The Hawks Wednesday stashed John Collins, their starting power forward, on Luwawu-Cabarrot so they could defend Durant -- Brooklyn's nominal power forward -- with a wing. That would have been riskier with Dinwiddie.
In the half court, the Nets run copious spread pick-and-roll with both Irving and Durant; toggle through classic Durant set pieces; and make gorgeous use of Joe Harris' roving gravity.
That is beautiful in its concise cruelty. Harris jets off a DeAndre Jordan pindown, and the threat of a Bandana Joe triple draws Marcus Smart away from Irving. Harris kicks there. Smart rushes back but can't slow his momentum before Irving dusts him. Brown crashes off Harris to barricade Irving's drive, and that's it.
Harris has been a plus on defense, and the Nets test him by switching a ton -- forcing Harris to guard up (power forward) and down (point guard) the positional spectrum. In four seasons, Harris has transformed from major question on defense to pretty damned stout. Irving is competing, too.
He's always had the tools. Will his focus and commitment wane?
The Nets look really good. James Harden would probably bump up their ceiling -- or at least provide cushion against an injury to Irving or Durant -- at the expense of both depth and their future. The question is whether the bump is large enough to justify the cost, and the answer depends in part on how good Brooklyn's brain trust thinks the team can be as is.
2. Trae Young is a magician
I mean, come on:
That's mean.
Atlanta's offense is laying waste to the league. It appears legitimate. Atlanta won't finish as the most potent offense ever -- it would be as of today -- but the Hawks are a problem.
It starts with Young, who is impossible to grasp. He moves in strange, unpredictable ways. He has nasty hesitation dribbles with either hand, and changes pace and direction at the same time; he might meander north-south in one dribble, and then accelerate east-west the next. He whips one-handed passes lefty and righty, at every angle imaginable. He launches righty floaters while fading left. And Young remains the king of rejecting picks, bolting the moment he sees his defender -- panicking at the thought of Young getting any daylight -- leaning toward an oncoming screen.
Young is an unusual mix of incredible athleticism and straight-up weirdness.
Defenders lose their way trying to navigate his maze of jagged twists. Sometimes, they lose their balance and tumble into him. And when all else fails, Young jumps, sticks his butt out, and draws (bogus) fouls.
Atlanta surrounds Young with more shooting and veteran savvy. The Hawks can play big, small, or even super-small with Danilo Gallinari at center. Cam Reddish and De'Andre Hunter are jacking with audacity; they might make more pull-up 3s in the first 25 games than they did all of last season.
Young is running fewer pick-and-rolls as the Hawks (slightly) democratize their offense, but he's shooting more often out of them, per Second Spectrum. (He still needs to move more off the ball, but perhaps that will come.)
Young has drawn fouls on 12.5% of pick-and-rolls that have ended possessions, a mark that would have led the league by a mile last season. The Hawks have scored 1.16 points per possession anytime Young shoots out of a pick-and-roll, or passes to a teammate who launches -- a mark that (again) would have led the league.
That number balloons to absurd highs when Collins is Young's screener, and higher yet when Collins slips early out of picks -- something he has done over the past two seasons more than everyone but Rudy Gobert and Jarrett Allen, per an ESPN Stats & Information analysis of Second Spectrum data.
You can see Atlanta finally developing an identity on offense when Young rests -- sets heavy on Bogdan Bogdanovic and Kevin Huerter popping off picks and setting them.
The next big question is how the Collins-Clint Capela frontcourt functions on offense. It's clear the Hawks need Capela to have any chance defending anyone, but the double-big setup requires adjustments. Young and the Hawks appear up for that problem solving.
3. Let us feast atop Julius Randle Hill!
We have had lean times atop Julius Randle Hill. Even some true believers considered leaving last season, when Randle melted on defense and drove over and over into walls of defenders like a windup toy stuck in forward gear.
But the few, the brave, stayed and foraged. We told ourselves: It is not his fault the Knicks built a team without shooting. Against almost all evidence, we chanted: One day, he will put it together.
And we are a cautious lot today, even as Randle rampages from baseline to baseline for the 2-3 New York Knicks, coming off easy wins over the Milwaukee Bucks (yup!) and the previously undefeated Cleveland Cavaliers and their Sexland backcourt. Randle -- averaging 23 points, 10 rebounds, and seven assists -- is 9-of-16 from deep and 8-of-14 on long 2s. We know that won't sustain; the comedown started in New York's blowout loss to the Toronto Raptors Thursday. Atop the hill, we drink deeply from the chalice of analytics.
But this is the Randle we envisioned -- the one we knew would come one day: grabbing boards, rushing out in transition, and making the smart and easy decisions:
Not every highlight has come with Randle straddling the line between fast and out of control. Watch him download that he has a mismatch in semi-transition, accelerate into an attack of Darius Garland, and then slip a beauty to Mitchell Robinson -- the correct, simple read:
Randle has assisted on 34% of New York's baskets while on the floor, a mark typical of a point guard -- fitting, as Randle acts as co-point guard of sorts with New York's starters and shoulders more ballhandling responsibility when Frank Ntilikina replaces Elfrid Payton. The Knicks get out in transition much more with Randle on the floor, per Cleaning The Glass. He looks trimmer, and more explosive -- quicker from zero to 60. That has helped on defense, too.
Hard times will come. The Knicks rank 28th in points per possession. They still don't have much shooting, or a reliable point guard -- ingredients that would make life easier for RJ Barrett. Only four teams generate a lower share of attempts from deep. Their defense -- ninth in points allowed per possession -- is due for regression. New York has given up the third-most shots at the rim, and opponents have hit just 27% from deep.
But New York under Tom Thibodeau looks more coherent. The Knicks are moving more, cutting harder, playing with some organized purpose. And so on this day heralding the start of 2021, we uncork the finest champagne atop Julius Randle Hill.
4. Please stop fouling, Patrick Beverley
Most of what makes Beverley an undeniable NBA character is endearing: in-your-jersey defense, and accompanying profane chatter. He's also good, with a clear role on a championship-level team. (The Clippers -- minus one shellacking without Kawhi Leonard -- look great so far, with more flowing and varied offense.) I get why fans outside of Oklahoma City enjoy him.
Sometimes you just want him to dial back the "Look at me, I am running around and playing hard!" cartoonishness. Like, your constant foul trouble hurts the team.
To some degree, fouling is the price of full-throttle Beverley. Force caution upon him, and you might lose parts of his game -- pickpocket steals, in-the-scrum rebounds.
But Beverley often fouls when there is no threat, and no real opportunity to turn his aggression into something profitable. He fouls in the backcourt. He fouls away from the play. He fouls at the end of the shot clock. He has committed 19 fouls -- fourth overall -- in just 109 minutes.
The best-case scenario there is turning a bad-odds proposition -- Nikola Jokic's prayer -- into a zero-point proposition. Fine. That's not nothing. By flying in to hack at Jokic, Beverley gifts a great free throw shooter two attempts.
Beverley can be himself without doing stuff like this.
5. The little moments of Chris Paul's genius
Few players put their imprint on teams as quickly as Paul. Everything makes more sense. Turnovers plummet. Sometimes pace does, too. (Phoenix is playing at a crawl.) Everyone appears to play smarter; Paul has them in the right places at the right times.
Paul is the puppet-master, and his bending the game to his will has served his teams well in crunch time. But in Houston, Oklahoma City, and now Phoenix, Paul has ceded some of the offense to others. He and Devin Booker will build chemistry so that Phoenix's offense has layers beyond "your turn, my turn" predictability. (Monty Williams is staggering his star guards, a wise move given the Suns' personnel.)
Paul is a genius improviser. He breathes momentum into wayward possessions:
Paul spots Jae Crowder with the ball on the wing -- a place where a possession might stall. Crowder pivots toward Paul, hoping for a handoff. Paul instead sets a pick for Crowder -- a point guard in the corner screening for his power forward. Weird! Paul knows the screen might catch the Kings off-guard, and generate a switch.
From there, it's academic: Paul prods at the Marvin Bagley III mismatch, draws De'Aaron Fox away from Crowder in the corner, and tosses the ball there for a triple. Paul adds the flourish of an underhand sling pass. Even that bit of style is calculated for maximum efficiency. The one-handed sling is easier to disguise. Paul doesn't stand up from his crouch, pick up his dribble in the traditional way, or gather the ball with two hands. He transitions from dribble to pass before Fox knows what's going on.
The Suns are good. They have outscored opponents by a fat 10.5 points per 100 possessions -- second overall. Phoenix is also second in the league in defense. The Suns will slip some when opponents start hitting a normal percentage of 3s, though they have done well limiting 3-point attempts. But they look solid, and their offense -- about average so far -- should improve.
Keep an eye on Mikal Bridges, averaging 15.5 points and hunting points with more confidence now that two elite guards can spoon-feed him.
6. Hello, Tyrese Haliburton!
Haliburton is as delightful as advertised -- crafty, and playing with bravado that is rare among rookies. He is third on the Kings in pick-and-roll volume, behind only Fox and (barely) Buddy Hield, and the Kings are feasting when Haliburton orchestrates: 1.6 points per possession when he shoots out of the pick-and-roll or passes to a teammate who launches, per Second Spectrum.
Haliburton won't sustain anything close to that efficiency, but a good start is better than a bad one. Haliburton is passing on 63% of his pick-and-rolls and recording assists on 37% of them -- numbers that would have just about led the league last season. It will be interesting to watch him adjust as teams play him for the pass.
Luke Walton has already built set pieces around Haliburton, including variants of this one that makes canny use of Glenn Robinson III as a lob threat:
The Kings distract help defenders by slotting a decent shooter (Cory Joseph) on the weak side, and having their best shooter on the floor -- Nemanja Bjelica -- curl off a pick on the right wing.
They run a similar action pairing Haliburton and Richaun Holmes. Those two have nice chemistry already.
Haliburton is a long-armed menace on defense who rotates in sync with the opposing offense. He is comfortable playing off the ball alongside Fox. Haliburton keeps the offense moving with smart drive-and-kick reads. The Kings already trust him in crunch time. That puts him on the floor with both Fox and Hield. Can that trio survive on defense? If Harrison Barnes -- the Kings' starting small forward -- moves to the 4 in those lineups, what does that mean for Bagley, Bjelica, Richaun Holmes, and others?
Regardless: The Kings have a keeper.
7. It's time for D'Angelo Russell to stand up
Russell will drive winning at a high level -- at least in his current role -- only if he gets better at one of two things: getting to the rim (and the line), and defending with vigor.
We haven't seen progress yet this season. Only 6% of Russell's shots have come in the restricted area, below his share in any prior season, per Cleaning The Glass. He has attempted eight free throws in four games. Russell's playmaking has plateaued in part because he doesn't get into the teeth of the defense. (In fairness, Minnesota does not have a ton of respected shooters who help unclutter the paint. The Wolves are getting less than zero from their power forwards.)
Critics have focused on Russell's on-ball defense. He doesn't hold his stance, and has trouble slithering around screens. Some of that is fixable.
His off-ball defense has been just as problematic. He has a tendency to wander and space out -- to hang in no-man's land, or stray from his man when no such help is required:
Those clips are from last season, but the same habits have dogged Russell early in this one.
The Wolves rank in the bottom 10 on both offense and defense, and they've been much worse with Russell on the floor. That doesn't mean much -- yet.
Alongside both Ricky Rubio and Karl-Anthony Towns, Russell could slide into a less ball-dominant role that suits him -- and might push him toward taking more 3s, and fewer pull-up 2s.
Russell hits those shots at a solid rate. He can lift a bad offense toward mediocrity. But the Wolves have grander ambitions, and to meet them, Russell has to embrace the grimy stuff.
8. Greedy tightrope rebounds
There are meaningless basketball moments that stir my anxiety. One is when a ball handler crosses half court and throws the rock backward to a teammate just striding over the midcourt line. It's so close to a violation! Why risk it? It gives me the shivers.
Another with worse intentions begins when a miss caroms toward the baseline or sideline, and no offensive player tries to retrieve it. Nearby defenders have a choice: let it go out of bounds, or scramble after it to record a tightrope rebound. It drives me nuts when guys snare the ball with their tippy toes just inside the boundaries, and try to catch their balance so they don't stumble out.
Sure, there are semi-legitimate reasons for keeping the ball live. Maybe the other team has a substitution on deck. Perhaps there is some vulnerability to attack on the other end, though that is rarely the case since the opponent sets its defense during the rebound pursuit.
I bet the main motivation is greed: Give me this rebound on the stat sheet. The basketball gods frown upon stat-chasing, and sometimes punish the overeager by nudging them off-balance -- out of bounds, and onto blooper reels.
9. Markelle Fultz and the 4-1 Magic
Fultz's one glaring limitation makes him more watchable. His jumper has improved from "totally broken" to "only kinda broken," but defenses are going to treat it as broken maybe forever -- and duck screens to wall off Fultz's path to the paint.
But Fultz is creative, and (with help from Steve Clifford) has mastered tricks to get where he wants to go even when there is no obvious way there. He has a Rajon Rondo-style knack for taking the baseline when defenses concede it, and ad-libbing ways to hurt the defense once he arrives near the rim.
He finds oxygen in tight corridors, and conjures those pockets of space with jitterbug dribbling:
Fultz worms underneath the basket, then slices diagonally back out -- crisscrossing with Nikola Vucevic. That's an unconventional path to a very Fultzian dime. (It also made the normally staid David Steele, Orlando's ace play-by-play guy, scream, "Don't do that to 'em, Markelle Fultz!")
Fultz is 15-of-16 at the line, continuing a trend from last season, but the improvement on his jumper has been slower to come in the flow. He is taking an ever-larger share of shots from the midrange so far -- a preposterously large one -- and hitting them at a poor rate. The Magic have been winning games with their bench.
I have been and remain a mild Fultz skeptic, and Orlando's 4-0 start was something of a scheduled-aided fluke. Fultz can get only so far with a semi-busted jumper. But he has the wit and change-of-gears speed to squeeze everything from the rest of his game.
10. The looming banners in Boston
Teams are trying lots of gimmicks to compensate for the lack of live fans. Some thought about carrying over the virtual fans from the bubble, sources say, but that apparently proved expensive and cumbersome. The Kings have populated the lower bowl with cardboard cutouts of fans and former Sacto luminaries.
But the Celtics take the early-season gimmick title for lowering their championship banners behind each basket:
It dawns on you how big those suckers are. There is something poetic about huge banners looming over the game. It is an unspoken reminder that winning a title is the point of this whole enterprise. Beyond all the bells and whistles -- marketing campaigns, Instagram nonsense, transaction mania, hype videos, endless new uniforms -- stands the ultimate goal of a championship.
Just as those banners are giant and hang forever, if you are part of a title team, you become a historic giant in that city forever.