This abnormal 2020-21 NBA season is already off to an unpredictable start, with the Cleveland Cavaliers, Orlando Magic, Atlanta Hawks and Indiana Pacers sharing the league's best record at 3-0. So which early NBA trends are worth buying and selling?
Our experts tackle six big real-or-not topics, including:
• The Los Angeles Lakers' claim to their own title tier
• The race for the Eastern Conference crown
• The likelihood of a James Harden trade
• The Golden State Warriors' woes
• Trae Young's MVP candidacy
• The best rookie
Real or not: The Warriors will be fine when Draymond Green returns
Kevin Pelton: Somewhat real.
"Fine" is strong for a team that my projections based on ESPN's real plus-minus had finishing below-.500 on average before opening the season with the most lopsided pair of losses to start a campaign since 1987, per ESPN Stats & Information research. But the Warriors are surely better than they've looked.
Second Spectrum's quantified shooting index metric (qSI) looks at how well teams shoot relative to the expected effective field goal percentage (efG%) for average shooters on the same attempts based on location, type and distance of nearest defender.
So far this season, Golden State's qSI is a league-worst minus-6.3, meaning average shooters would have an 50% eFG%, rather than their actual 44% mark. That can't continue. Though the Warriors finished last in qSI in 2019-20, it was still only -1.1%. The shooting will improve, and eventually Kelly Oubre Jr. will make a shot besides a dunk.
Amazingly, Golden State also is 30th in opponent qSI, with the three teams they've faced posting a 60% eFG%, instead of the 50% we'd expect based on their shots. That too will even out; the Warriors finished last in this category in 2019-20, but again with a smaller difference (3.8 qSI) than we've seen so far this season (10.6).
Draymond Green will help a team starved for playmaking. The Warriors have assisted on just 57.5% of their field goals, as compared to 66% last season. Green can prop up an offense that's collapsed any time Stephen Curry goes to the bench and his presence will help get promising James Wiseman in the right spot on defense more often.
At the same time, Green is only one player, so he can't solve the issues with both the Warriors' starting five and their bench. And his absence also has underscored how fragile Golden State's roster is, which will leave the team vulnerable to injuries all season long.
Real or not: The Lakers are still in their own title tier
Tim MacMahon: Real. The Lakers barely broke a sweat in the bubble while cruising to the NBA championship, then they got better in the offseason.
Yes, this team is in a tier of its own.
The Lakers were the lone franchise to have a pair of first-team All-NBA selections last season. As long as LeBron James and Anthony Davis are healthy, L.A. would rightfully be considered favorites to repeat, regardless of the upgrades to the supporting cast.
But credit vice president of basketball operations Rob Pelinka for putting together a high-quality supporting cast around his two superstars. He managed to add the reigning Sixth Man of the Year, the runner-up for that award and the starting center from the previous season's championship team.
The trade for guard Dennis Schroder adds a dynamic off-the-dribble threat, easing some of the burden on James' soon-to-be 36-year-old legs during this condensed season. The Lakers had to give up ring-collecting role player Danny Green in the deal, but they signed a reasonable 3-and-D facsimile in Wesley Matthews for the league minimum.
Montrezl Harrell moved across the hallway at Staples Center to give the Lakers' bench a bolt of energy and buckets by the bunches. He also comes with a chip on his shoulder, after the Clippers didn't offer him the big contract Harrell felt like he had earned. Marc Gasol isn't the All-Star he used to be, but he was still the anchor of an elite defense with the Toronto Raptors, a brilliant mind whose big body is always where it's supposed to be.
The Lakers were by far the league's best team last season. They're better now, ranking No. 3 in net rating despite a 2-2 record. Bet against them at your own risk.
Real or not: Anthony Edwards is the best rookie this season
Mike Schmitz: Not totally real yet.
Will Edwards lead all rookies in scoring? Yes. As he showed against the Utah Jazz, when his jumper is falling, he's an incredibly tough cover given his handle and physicality to the rim. But for every stellar scoring night, he'll have outings like his 6-for-21 performance against the Lakers. I'd expect a season with some Rookie of the Year highs yet lingering questions about his efficiency and winning impact.
James Wiseman looks like he belongs in the conversation, and the fact that he is 5-for-6 from 3 is a huge development. But his defensive rust and lack of toughness showed against the Chicago Bulls. And although I'd still pick LaMelo Ball for ROY despite a slow start, he falls in the same category as Edwards and Wiseman. While the wow moments jump off the screen, Ball is still learning how to become a more efficient offensive player and disciplined defender, and I'm interested to see if he can eventually grab hold of the starting point guard job.
I think there's a possibility that one of Deni Avdija, Tyrese Haliburton and Isaac Okoro will have the greatest impact on winning. Avdija has looked like the steal of the draft so far as the Washington Wizards' starting wing, shooting 50% from 3, creating for others and showing glimpses defensively. Haliburton also has played like a top-five pick for stretches, shooting 42% from 3 and making high-level reads. Despite a recent injury, Okoro's defense, toughness and underrated offensive game are big reasons there's so much optimism in Cleveland.
If we're talking about the most highlights, Ball, Edwards and Wiseman sit atop the list. In terms of having the most well-rounded impact in Year 1, I'd go with Avdija, Haliburton and Okoro.
Mike Schmitz is an NBA draft expert and a contributor to DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service utilized by NBA, NCAA and international teams.
Real or not: James Harden will be traded by the deadline
Bobby Marks: TBD, but trending toward likely.
My inclination is that the Houston Rockets will hold out as long as possible -- maybe past the March trade deadline -- with the belief that Harden could be swayed to stay long term. Remember that the Houston front office did not trade for the $132 million left on the John Wall contract or commit $41 million to Christian Wood just to rebuild. The All-NBA-level play of Harden still heavily outweighs him being a headache off the floor.
Also, because Harden is not on an expiring contract, the Rockets can continue to show patience and wait for the right deal -- either before the deadline or next offseason. However, history has shown that once a disgruntled All-Star wants out, it is hard to repair a relationship that is broken. In this case, Harden being on the Rockets past the trade deadline is considered more unlikely than likely.
The ups and downs of the regular season will push a team to make a swing-for-the-fences type of trade that it would not do in the offseason. For example, does the loss of guard Spencer Dinwiddie now push the Brooklyn Nets to sacrifice all their pieces in players and draft picks? How about a struggling Denver Nuggets team that finished three games away from the NBA Finals? Does Denver take the untouchable tag off of Michael Porter Jr. if the losing continues? Despite Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic being in the prime of their careers, the title window for this Nuggets team will not stay open forever.
Real or not: The East is wide open
Tim Bontemps: This is most definitely real and doesn't appear likely to change anytime soon. Go through each of the seven consensus East playoff teams -- the Bucks, Nets, Celtics, Raptors, 76ers, Pacers and Heat -- and you can see they have clear flaws.
Milwaukee added Jrue Holiday but sacrificed a ton of depth to do so.
Brooklyn got off to a flying start, but now it has to cope with the loss of Dinwiddie.
Boston has virtually no scoring around Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, while Kemba Walker is out with knee issues.
Toronto is two games under .500 for the first time in seven years and lacks an inside presence.
The Ben Simmons-Joel Embiid fit remains an open question for Philadelphia.
Indiana is off to a 3-0 start but has to show it has a higher ceiling than another first-round out.
And after making a surprise run to the NBA Finals last year, Miami has to prove it simply wasn't the perfect team to handle the unique bubble situation.
There's a reason several of these teams have been linked to a potential James Harden trade. The opening is there for someone to take control of the conference.
Real or not: Trae Young is a legitimate top-five MVP candidate
Andre Snellings: Not quite real ... yet.
Recent top-five MVP finishers have some clear commonalities: They put up eye-popping box score stats, they have a dominant on-court impact and their teams are very good to great.
Young showed as a sophomore he was capable of delivering on the first item, finishing fourth in the league with 29.6 points per game and second with 9.3 assists per game. All-in-one stats bear out Young's huge footprint ... on offense. But the game is played at both ends of the court, and defensively, Young has a history of giving back almost as much as he generates. Young finished second in the NBA in ESPN's offensive real plus-minus (ORPM) last season but last in defensive RPM, leaving him tied for 98th in overall RPM. No top-five MVP finisher in the past three seasons has measured out worse than 31st in RPM, with 14 of the 15 finishing in the top 20.
That brings us to team performance. The top-five MVP finishers for the past three seasons have come from teams with an average playoff seed of 3.1. Young has led the Hawks to a 3-0 start with a plus-12.2 net rating this season, but Atlanta also started off strong in 2019-20, before falling deep into the lottery. There is a lot of basketball still left to be played, and the Hawks still have a lot to prove.
Young has the tools and an encouraging improvement trajectory, and his team looks much improved. But it's too early to put him in this group right now.