When a superstar hits the trade market with significant time left on his contract, his availability serves as a gut check for any team with title aspirations. Even the most methodical organizations that carefully map out a long-term path to contention have to ask, What did we acquire all those draft assets and affordable contracts for if not to aggregate them for a top-five player?
This year, James Harden is that player.
While the Milwaukee Bucks have asked that question and decided to pass on getting involved, five other Eastern Conference contenders could see making a move for the disgruntled Houston Rockets superstar as the one that sets them apart from the rest of the pack.
So what can the Celtics, Nets, Heat, 76ers and Raptors offer Houston in exchange for the former MVP? And should they do it? Our experts break down the potential moves.
Boston Celtics
The potential offer
Boston gets: James Harden, Eric Gordon and P.J. Tucker
Houston gets: Jaylen Brown, Kemba Walker, Aaron Nesmith, 2021 and 2023 unprotected first-round picks
In 2017, the Celtics -- coming off a conference finals appearance -- saw a chance to upgrade their roster and traded for Kyrie Irving, who was under contract for multiple years. Three seasons later, Boston again finds itself coming off a conference finals appearance and again having a chance to trade for a star guard with multiple years left on his existing deal. There would be a risk that Harden would decline his player option and leave town after 2022, but that would still give Boston two playoff runs with the 2018 MVP wearing Celtics green.
While Harden has played alongside other star sidekicks in Houston, from Dwight Howard to Chris Paul to Russell Westbrook, none was on the rise quite like Jayson Tatum, who would give Harden a young co-star who can take on a massive scoring load every night. Harden would undoubtedly still get his fill of shots, but Tatum could serve as an additional go-to option in playoff settings, where Harden's teams have historically struggled.
Boston could put together a package leading with Brown, who is off to the best start of his career. He fits the profile of a young building-block-type star that the Rockets have required in any Harden trade. Expanding the return beyond Harden to include Tucker and Gordon would give the Celtics the depth they've been lacking in the early part of the season.
Brown is just 24 years old, though, a two-way player and well on his way to being an All-Star for the first time. He has steadily grown his game over four-plus seasons in Boston and has taken on a larger offensive role in a big way this season. The pairing of Brown and Tatum can rival any wing duo -- and perhaps any under-25 tandem in the entire league. And while the Celtics are not yet up to the same caliber of conference finals rosters they've enjoyed in recent years, their biggest weakness at this point -- depth -- is something that could be addressed without making such an earthshaking trade.
-- Tim Bontemps
Brooklyn Nets
The potential offer
Brooklyn gets: James Harden, Bruno Caboclo, Chris Clemons
Houston gets: Caris LeVert, Spencer Dinwiddie, Taurean Prince, Jarrett Allen, first-round picks in 2023, 2025, 2027
Acquiring Harden would give Brooklyn perhaps the most lethal offensive trio in NBA history: Harden, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. As if they needed any more floor spacing, they'd have sharpshooter Joe Harris further stretching opposing defenses.
Imagining a Nets lineup with Harden is easy; constructing a trade package to make it happen is more difficult. Houston wants an impact player, young prospects on value-positive contracts and future draft assets. The Nets have some kinda-sortas in each category. LeVert, as he demonstrated in the bubble, can find himself a shot or two, is a decent playmaker, plays a quality brand of defense and is a worker bee. But is he the featured win-now talent in a blockbuster deal?
Houston would need more help on the wing, and the Nets have a couple of youngish players to offer. Dinwiddie is projected to miss the rest of the season with a partially torn ACL, yet the Rockets would inherit his Bird rights and secure the services of a player they couldn't otherwise afford in free agency. Prince is a league-average power forward/innings eater on a value-neutral contract. The Nets seem to value young center Jarrett Allen less than much of the league, yet Houston is already set at the position with Christian Wood. Brooklyn might need to find a third team to take on Allen and bring back someone of greater utility to the Rockets. Landry Shamet, Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot and Rodions Kurucs are on cheap deals and could get added to the mix.
The Rockets would demand multiple first-rounders and/or swaps in any construction, but likely ones far into the future, when they'd be less likely to be in the 20s. Brooklyn has all of its future first-round picks at its disposal.
Even if the sides can craft a deal, there's the broader question: For all of Harden's talent, the Nets have to consider whether he is a guy they want around. One of the cardinal rules in the present-day NBA is that your best players set the cultural tone for the organization. Would Harden's devil-may-care attitude infect a team that's still building its identity?
Every organization that fashions itself as having everything buttoned up believes it can absorb any player into its culture, and maybe that's true of the Nets and Harden. He wouldn't be the incumbent superstar who ransomed Houston into accepting every personal demand. He'd be joining two NBA champions who, while imperfect cultural standard-bearers, came to Brooklyn to win. "That s--- won't fly here" is a message that should resonate, particularly given that Harden is the suitor in this courtship.
It's a risk, especially since Harden's strengths would be somewhat redundant on a team long in shot creation, and his weakness would be amplified on a team that needs players who can guard. Yet the Nets haven't exhibited any consistency or real dominance in the early season. Harden might seem like a quick fix, but there's a reason they call them shortcuts.
-- Kevin Arnovitz
Miami Heat
The potential offer
Miami gets: James Harden, Bruno Caboclo, Chris Clemons and Danuel House Jr.
Houston gets: Precious Achiuwa, Tyler Herro, Andre Iguodala, Kendrick Nunn, Kelly Olynyk and first-round picks in 2025 and 2027
The Heat kicked the tires on a Harden trade last month before deciding to end talks. However, Miami's carefully hoarded 2021 cap space no longer looks as valuable now that Giannis Antetokounmpo has signed a supermax extension. Barring a stunning change of heart by Kawhi Leonard, there won't be an unrestricted star available for the Heat to pitch on joining last year's Eastern Conference champs, leaving Miami choosing between pursuing lesser players (say, Indiana Pacers guard Victor Oladipo) or running back a similar team.
Harden now looks like the best player the Heat could realistically acquire in the next 12 months, and he is on the same timetable as Miami star Jimmy Butler (the two players were born less than a month apart in 1989). So if after a slow start the Heat decided to reengage the Rockets in negotiations, Miami could put together a package leading with Herro, the second-year guard who broke out in the bubble, and Achiuwa, the 2020 first-round pick who has shown flashes already in his young career. Offering unprotected picks in 2025 and 2027 would require Miami to remove lottery protection on the 2023 first-round pick the Heat owe the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Although trading five players for three healthy ones (Clemons is out for the year after suffering an Achilles rupture during the preseason) would compromise the Heat's depth, they'd still have plenty of capable role players to put around what would immediately become the NBA's best trio: Butler, Harden and Bam Adebayo.
Adding Harden could make Miami the favorite to win the East.
However, it's not that simple. Remember when Miami landed Butler and people immediately noted he was a perfect fit for the "Heat Culture"? Nobody would say that about Harden, whose intermittent commitment to conditioning and defense would contrast with Miami's fanaticism. That certainly can work -- the Heat did win a title with Shaquille O'Neal, after all -- but the fit on the court might be challenging too.
Erik Spoelstra has favored an egalitarian offense built heavily on off-ball actions, most notably including Duncan Robinson. Would Harden be willing to deliver the ball in those situations rather than initiating the action himself, as he has in Houston? And would Miami's late-game offense be as effective with Butler playing primarily off the ball, where he's a limited spot-up threat?
Spoelstra and his staff are creative enough to solve these issues. Still, they might affect the Heat's willingness to include prized young guard Herro, a necessary component of any deal for Harden. As aggressive as Miami has been under Pat Riley, the Heat should be reluctant to sacrifice what looks like a bright future with a core of Adebayo (23) and Herro (who won't turn 21 until later this month).
-- Kevin Pelton
Philadelphia 76ers
The potential offer
Philadelphia gets: James Harden
Houston gets: Ben Simmons, Mike Scott, Matisse Thybulle
Harden and Daryl Morey are more than just old co-workers, they are old co-workers who changed the NBA together. They also got about as close to the NBA Finals as you can get without doing so. With Morey now running the 76ers, the idea of a reunion in Philadelphia is at least enticing.
Add in the fact that Morey got fined for tweeting nice things about Harden and the notion becomes downright plausible, right?
Not so fast.
A funny thing happened on the way to the reunion: Philadelphia started playing awesome basketball without James Harden.
The 76ers outright own the best record in the NBA. They have the top defense in the land. At 26, Joel Embiid is my way-too-early-to-say MVP front-runner, and with some new spacing agents surrounding him, Ben Simmons, still just 24, looks like one of the most complete two-way playmakers in the league.
So the question becomes: Why blow up this young duo to import a much older, much more volatile superstar into this rejuvenated process?
While Embiid is the more dominant player, Simmons is the team's catalyst. But Harden is an on-ball catalyst too, so Philadelphia's most logical trade package for Harden would involve Simmons, rather than putting the two ball handlers together.
It's tempting to think a Harden/Embiid Sixers team would be better, but before you conclude that, let's review some Simmons/Embiid figures that might change your mind.
In 1,306 minutes with Simmons/Embiid on the floor in 2017-18, here's how Philadelphia performed:
Offensive rating: 113.3
Defensive rating: 97.8
Net rating: 15.5
That's not good, it's great. Now consider 2018-19, the season they ended up losing to the Raptors in a heartbreaking series:
Offensive rating: 112.8
Defensive rating: 104.9
Net rating: 7.9
Not incredible, but still pretty darn good. Long story short, the idea that these guys can't fit together is revisionist history that places too much weight on what will become known as "The Lost Horford Season." This season -- which includes something called spacing, in the form of Danny Green and Seth Curry -- reinforces the idea that 2019-20 was the outlier, not the trend.
Offensive rating: 116.6
Defensive rating: 98.1
Net rating: 18.6
Yes, this year's numbers are based on small samples against mediocre opponents, but they also look consistent with those previous years' numbers, which are not. The bottom line is that Philly has two good reasons to stand pat here: Simmons and Embiid.
-- Kirk Goldsberry
Toronto Raptors
The potential offer
Toronto gets: James Harden
Houston gets: Pascal Siakam, Norman Powell and unprotected first-round picks in 2023 and 2025
The Kawhi Leonard trade in 2018 showed that Raptors president Masai Ujiri is willing to shake up a playoff roster. Instead of staying content with a good team but one that had already peaked, Toronto swapped All-Star DeMar DeRozan for Leonard, who had both an expiring contract and health concerns. The result was the Raptors' first NBA championship.
Now, two years later, would Ujiri make another calculated risk, this time with Harden?
The Raptors rank last in offensive rating, and adding Harden to a starting group that includes Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby would elevate them to contender status.
However, for the Raptors to get into the bidding game for Harden now, there are multiple obstacles they must overcome.
The first is the trade restrictions placed on half of their roster:
Aron Baynes, Alex Len and DeAndre' Bembry cannot be traded until Feb. 6
Paul Watson has a Feb. 25 restriction
VanVleet and Chris Boucher have a March 3 trade restriction
Anunoby is difficult to trade because of the poison pill restriction in his contract
That leaves Toronto with All-Stars Lowry and Pascal Siakam, sixth man Norman Powell and reserves Malachi Flynn, Patrick McCaw, Stanley Johnson, Terence Davis and Matt Thomas to offer up in a deal.
Toronto can also add an unprotected first in 2021, 2023, 2025 and 2027 and can swap firsts in 2022, 2024 and 2026.
The second challenge that Toronto faces is the hard cap, a restriction that was triggered when Baynes was signed using the non-taxpayer midlevel exception. So while a deal sending Siakam ($30.6M salary), Flynn ($1.95M) and Thomas ($1.5M) gets Toronto to 75% of Harden's $41.2M contract to make the trade legal, it would also leave the Raptors just $2 million below the hard cap with two roster spots to fill.
Then there is the question of whether Siakam would be enough of a centerpiece for the Rockets to give up Harden. He was an All-Star and second-team All-NBA selection a season ago but struggled in the playoffs in Orlando.
Would Houston look at him like a Ben Simmons (a franchise player) or more like a solid starter in the Nets' Caris LeVert? If it's the latter, how much draft capital is Toronto willing to sacrifice to sweeten the pot?
Would Toronto ownership greenlight three unprotected firsts (the maximum is four) and pick swaps in two years without the assurance that Ujiri will return (he's in the last year of his contract)?
Harden is a top-five player in the NBA, and despite Toronto having cap flexibility to possibly add a max free agent in 2021 without a trade, there is no player of his caliber in free agency. The Raptors would leave themselves exposed when it comes to draft assets in future years if Harden does leave in 2022, but that is a risk worth taking to acquire the former MVP.
-- Bobby Marks