Which surprisingly strong starts are most likely to continue?
After an unpredictable first two weeks of the 2020-21 season, seven teams that were in the 2020 lottery would make the playoffs if the season ended today. Those range from a former dynasty to teams expected to make a leap after busy offseasons to others who still seemed to be early in the rebuilding process.
Not all those teams will stay .500 or better. Let's take a closer look at this group to see which ones have staying power and which are likely to fall back into the lottery, from most likely to continue to least.
1. Phoenix Suns
Record: 5-2
Point differential: +7.3 PPG
Unlike most of the teams in this group, the Suns entered the season projected to make their first playoff appearance since 2010 after adding Chris Paul via trade.
Phoenix only improved its outlook by starting the season 5-1 with three wins over 2020 playoff teams, and there's no shame in losing a thriller to the LA Clippers on Sunday night. That game saw opponent 3-point shooting start to even out for the Suns, who'd had opponents make just 30% beyond the arc before the Clippers went 17-of-29 (59%).
Aside from that opponent shooting, there was something a little fluky about how Phoenix started. Sure, Mikal Bridges won't keep making 46% of his 3s, but the Suns can count on Devin Booker rebounding from a slow start that has seen him commit an incredible 5.3 turnovers per game. FiveThirtyEight's projections have moved Phoenix up to finishing third in the West on average.
2. Atlanta Hawks
Record: 4-2
Point differential: +7.8 PPG
Saturday's home loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers dropped Atlanta from first in the East into a four-way tie for second with the Cavaliers, among others. However, the Hawks' start still looks more sustainable than Cleveland's. Atlanta's plus-7.8 differential ranks third in the East and the Hawks have done it despite substantial injuries that have largely sidelined Atlanta's offseason additions.
Of the four players the Hawks signed to multiyear contracts, only sixth man Bogdan Bogdanovic has played more than two of the team's six games. Although Bogdanovic's addition has certainly helped solidify a second unit that was disastrous last season and center Clint Capela (added at the 2020 trade deadline) has been effective as a starter, Atlanta's fast start has more to do with internal development.
In 2019-20, recent Hawks first-round picks De'Andre Hunter, Kevin Huerter and Cam Reddish combined for a .520 true shooting percentage, far worse than league average (.565). That has jumped to .593 so far this season. If they're unable to keep it up, more contributions from Danilo Gallinari (currently out because of an ankle sprain) should keep Atlanta's offense humming well enough to offset opponents making more 3s (they're currently at 30%, the league's second-lowest mark).
With the NBA's second-ranked offense so far, led by Trae Young, the Hawks have an excellent chance of hosting a play-in tournament game at worst.
3. New Orleans Pelicans
Record: 4-2
Point differential: +2.7 PPG
I'm not sure how much we've learned about the Pelicans from their 4-2 start, which includes a pair of wins by four points or fewer. The most interesting development so far is how the Pelicans have changed their identity under new coach Stan Van Gundy.
New Orleans' defensive rating, 21st in the league last season, has jumped all the way up to fourth thus far. Meanwhile, the Pelicans' offense has slid and their pace of play has predictably reversed from fourth fastest to third slowest. If New Orleans could pair last season's transition-heavy offense with this season's stout defense, that would be a contending team. But the tradeoffs necessary to solidify the defense might prevent that.
In terms of playoff odds, the biggest development for the Pelicans is the West starting so slowly as a whole. The West has been outscored by 4.2 points per game in interconference matchups thus far and just three West teams have better differentials than New Orleans' plus-2.7 PPG mark. So the Pelicans' competition for a playoff spot no longer looks quite as stiff.
4. Golden State Warriors
Record: 3-3
Point differential: -10.7 PPG
It's tough to know quite what to make of the Warriors' 3-3 start given all three losses have come by at least 25 points. In NBA history, only two other teams have started 3-3 while getting outscored by at least 10 PPG: the 2015-16 Memphis Grizzlies (who lost to that season's 73-win Golden State team by 50) and the 1952-53 Milwaukee Hawks (two moves before landing in Atlanta).
At the same time, the Warriors weathered a historically bad start by newcomer Kelly Oubre Jr. and the absence of forward Draymond Green for the season's first four games without conceding ground in the standings.
To some extent, Golden State's equation is still the same. Stephen Curry's individual brilliance can drag a thin roster to competitiveness, as we saw most dramatically in Sunday's career-high, 62-point effort against the Portland Trail Blazers. The question remains what happens if and when Curry misses time. How healthy Curry can stay will go a long way toward determining whether the Warriors can stay in the playoff race.
5. Sacramento Kings
Record: 3-3
Point differential: -2.0 PPG
Bogdanovic's former team hasn't missed him much. As the Kings envisioned, rookie Tyrese Haliburton has immediately been effective filling Bogdanovic's spot in their rotation. Haliburton leads all rookies in my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric despite missing Saturday's loss due to a bone bruise in his left wrist.
Sacramento's 3-3 start is impressive in the context of the team's schedule to start the season: two games each against Phoenix and 2020 playoff teams Denver and Houston. The Kings have benefited from injuries on other teams, with guards James Harden and Jamal Murray each sitting out one of their two matchups, but this looks like a team capable of being in the West play-in tournament race.
6. Cleveland Cavaliers
Record: 4-2
Point differential: +2.7 PPG
It looked as if the Cavaliers were headed back to earth after starting 3-0 when they lost at home to the New York Knicks and got crushed by 20 at Indiana, but Cleveland rallied to beat the Hawks on Saturday to tie them in the standings. Dating to last season, the Cavaliers are now 9-7 since J.B. Bickerstaff replaced John Beilein as head coach.
Like Atlanta, Cleveland has seen last season's lottery pick take a jump forward in his development. Darius Garland is making 47% of his 3s thus far and has increased his assist rate by 40% on a per-minute basis. Collin Sexton too has been on fire to start the season, shooting 55% from beyond the arc. Those percentages will be tough to maintain.
Despite the hot shooting from their guards, the Cavaliers are still scoring at a below-average rate and winning primarily with the league's second-best defensive rating. Nobody in the NBA is forcing turnovers more frequently, a dramatic difference from last season when Cleveland ranked 25th in this category. No team since the ABA-NBA merger has increased its turnover rate as much from one season to the next as the Cavaliers have thus far (from 11.7% of opponent plays to 17.7%), making it unlikely to continue. (Last season's Bulls pulled off the biggest increase, 4.4 percentage points.)
Because Cleveland's preseason projections were so modest, they had a long way to go. FiveThirtyEight's model has the Cavaliers finishing with 26 wins on average. Yet that's enough to put Cleveland solidly in play-in territory.
7. New York Knicks
Record: 3-3
Point differential: -3.0 PPG
That one team seeing opponents shoot worse from 3-point range than the Hawks? It's the Knicks, who saw Milwaukee and Cleveland shoot a combined 14-of-70 (20%) on 3s while hitting 30-of-52 (58%) on their own attempts in those two wins.
As much emphasis as new coach Tom Thibodeau has naturally put on the defensive end, New York is still giving up the second-easiest shot attempts in terms of location, type and distance to nearest defender as measured by Second Spectrum's quantified shot quality (qSQ) metric. Yet Knicks opponents are shooting an effective 53% when accounting for the added value of 3-pointers, the league's third-lowest mark. That spread is unsustainable.
There's no question New York looks more organized than last season, when an early injury to starting point guard Elfrid Payton forced then-rookie RJ Barrett to take over ballhandling duties during a 4-12 start under former coach David Fizdale. Nonetheless, it's too early to conclude the Knicks are contenders for the play-in tournament.